For all of Punty's tips for Warwick Farm, head to https://punty.ai/tips/warwick-farm-2026-06-24

Rightio Loose Units, Warwick Farm on a Soft 5 with the rail out a touch and a howling wind trying to turn the straight into a rubbish chute. It's one of those meetings where the map matters, the fence matters, and the bloke who ignores the wind is usually the same bloke chewing his chips in Race 6 wondering where his quaddie went. We've got a few proper anchor races, a couple of filthy little chaos specials, and a stack of shorties that look lovely until they don't.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Warwick Farm, 1100m-1600m card
Rail: +5m 1000m- Winning post, +3m remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair early, then get a bit tactical and lane-sensitive as the day rolls on)
Weather: Sunny with a shower or two, 8°C, humidity 75%, wind 25km/h W (watch for gusts and a late surface change)
Early lane guess: Middle-to-inside early, with the better maps still coming from handy draws
Tempo profile: Two or three solid tempo races, a couple of sit-and-sprint jobs, and a quaddie that will try to mug you if you get cute
Jockeys to follow:
Dylan Gibbons — keeps getting the right rides in the right map spots, especially when the speed is genuine and the fence isn't a free lunch.
Tommy Berry — the bloke has a knack for making awkward draws look like a picnic; when he lands on a live one, the rest are usually chasing.
Nash Rawiller — if there's a race to be solved late, he's the one who makes it look easy while everyone else is scrambling.
Stables to respect:
Tom Charlton (3 runners) — has the day bookended with Pin Up Sheila and Astronomix, so he's got the sharp end covered.
C J Waller (12 runners) — has a heap of bullets across the card, especially in the messy races where place money can still be nicked.
G Waterhouse & A Bott (4 runners) — a couple of their runners are getting honest market respect and they know how to place one when the pace is on.

Punty's take: This card feels like someone spilled a bag of marbles down the stairs and called it a form guide. Race 1 and Race 3 are the cleaner ones - proper anchor races where the class horses should sort the riff-raff - but after that it's a lot of tempo, barriers, and who gets the right sit. The market has already latched onto a few runners like Omolong, Spain, Hot Bandit, Tanglewood Jimmy, Airworthy and Astronomix, but not every steam is gospel. Some are legit, some are just punters chasing the shiny thing like it's a Marvel post-credit scene.

The Soft 5 plus the wind means you want horses that can hold a spot, travel, and still pull the trigger late. Handy types from decent gates get first crack early, but once the day goes on and the lane chops up a bit, the swoopers can come into it if the tempo's honest. The trick today is not trying to be a hero in every race - there are a couple of skinny win shots, but the better money looks to be in the place and each-way plays where the map actually helps.

What it means for you: Keep the brave stuff for the races where the price and the pattern line up. The quaddie is a proper wide-open bastard, so if you're playing it, treat it like entertainment with a chance of a payout, not a second mortgage. The cleaner betting angles are the place and each-way plays in R1, R4, R5 and R6, while R2 and R7 are more about holding the line with the model's shorties and not getting mugged by a drift or a bad ride.

If you're only having one main crack, lean on the Big 3 spine and then use the quaddie as your bonus lung-buster. Don't go chasing every mover just because the tote's having a fit - some of these are getting steamed because they can win, others because the room has decided to get loud. Punty's job is to separate the two before the whips start cracking.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

1 - Pin Up Sheila (Race 1, No.1) — $3.00
Why Drawn to get the run of the race, maps on the speed in a tidy enough first leg, and she's the one here who can roll straight into the right spot and make life miserable for the rest.
2 - Crossways (Race 3, No.1) — $2.06
Why The maiden to beat if Dylan can navigate the wide gate; has the class edge, looks the best horse in the race, and the rest are basically trying to chase its tail.
3 - Astronomix (Race 7, No.6) — $2.22
Why Genuine speed, gets a map that should let it control or sit right on the bunny, and it's the one the market keeps saluting for a reason.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~13.26 = ~$132.62 collect

Race 1 - Hyland Race Colours Hcp

Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Pin Up Sheila and Sambuca Sky likely rolling forward and Scuro Star getting the nice stalking run.
Punty read: This is a tidy little speed-versus-position race. Pin Up Sheila looks to land on the bunny or just off it from a good alley, and that makes life pretty straightforward. Sambuca Sky has been backed from $4.20 into $3.40 and the market clearly hasn't missed the note, but at this price she doesn't exactly have the room for error. Scuro Star is the sneaky one - from barrier 7, with the pace shape, she can sit in the right pocket and be right there late. Tatiana is the roughie who can swoop if they overdo it, but the wallet stays shut.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Pin Up Sheila (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.32

Bet $4.00 Win, return $12.00 Prob 33.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.27x Why She maps like the leader in a pub brawl - gets the front or the box seat and should control her own destiny if Dylan lands the right run.

1. Sambuca Sky (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.37

Bet $4.50 Place, return $6.17 Prob 16.2% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.70x Why The steam is real and the stable has clearly found the cash, but she's short enough now that she needs the race to unfold exactly right.

1. Scuro Star (No.2) — $6.20 / $2.00

Bet $2.00 Place, return $4.00 Prob 14.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.13x Why The one with the map to sit in the slipstream and pounce if the leaders aren't allowed to get away with murder. Roughie: Tatiana (No.9) — $11.50 / $3.40 Bet Tracked Prob 9.4% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 1.37x Why If the front end gets too hot and they turn it into a late burn-up, she's the one that can lob over the top and make a mess of the finish.

Race 2 - Asahi Super Dry Hcp

Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, so the sit-sprint boys are the danger and the short-priced leaders need to nail the turn of foot.
Punty read: This is a weird little slow-run 1100 where everyone will be pretending to be patient until the last 300m turns into a street fight. Omolong is the obvious map horse and the heavy support says the money's not mucking around, but he's short enough that you're not getting a deal. Spain has been backed from $3.30 into $2.20 and that tells you connections think the race is there for the taking, but at the price he's the sort of favourite that can get you stiffed if the last part turns tactical. Dubious Express is the more sensible place angle - backmarker in a crawl can be a pain in the backside, but if they quicken late he's the one flying home. I'm Relevant is the sneaky improver if he gets a clean run, but we're not spraying around in a skinny market.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.50 pool)

1. Omolong (No.7) — $2.00 / $1.13

Bet $10.50 Win, return $21.00 Prob 17.6% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.45x Why The race shape gives him every chance to control the tempo, and when a horse gets to dictate terms in a short race like this, life gets a hell of a lot easier.

1. Spain (No.10) — $2.72 / $1.25

Bet Tracked Prob 17.6% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.61x Why The money's rolled in and the setup is fine, but at that quote you're not being handed a souvenir - you're paying for the privilege.

1. Dubious Express (No.2) — $9.20 / $2.05

Bet $5.00 Place, return $10.25 Prob 17.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 2.06x Why The one to be on if the race turns into a sit-and-sprint and the leaders get cooked late. Roughie: I'm Relevant (No.4) — $14.50 / $2.90 Bet Tracked Prob 9.5% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.77x Why If he lands a soft run from the fence and the speed goes nowhere, he's the sort who can run on into the placings and ruin a few exotics.

Race 3 - Drinkwise Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with a few pace horses nudging forward and the backmarkers needing the right crack.
Punty read: This is the maiden where the favourite looks like the class horse, but barrier 12 means you don't get to sit there like royalty - you've got to earn it. Crossways is still the one to beat because the ceiling looks higher than the rest and Dylan Gibbons knows the assignment. Zoufame has been backed from $5 into $4 and looks the honest, sensible play off a midfield run. Farfetched is the pace horse who can make it hard for the others if he controls the race, while Radicals is the roughie who benefits if the tempo gets a bit silly and the leaders start gasping like extras in Mad Max.

Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)

1. Crossways (No.1) — $2.06 / $1.25

Bet $7.00 Win, return $14.42 Prob 31.9% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.86x Why Best horse in the race, and if Dylan can sort out the wide alley without burning the legs off him, he should be winning.

1. Zoufame (No.15) — $4.00 / $1.60

Bet $6.00 Place, return $9.60 Prob 16.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.95x Why Honest midfield type who should keep finding the line, and the market's nudging her the right way.

1. Farfetched (No.10) — $6.50 / $2.10

Bet $4.00 Place, return $8.40 Prob 14.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.56x Why Maps up on the speed and gets every chance to pinch a kick if the others are still fiddling with their tie pins at the top of the straight. Roughie: Radicals (No.12) — $10.10 / $3.10 Bet Tracked Prob 12.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.49x Why If they overcook the early battle and the front runners fold up like a cheap camp chair, he's the one who can storm home and spoil the party.

Race 4 - Exceedance @ Vinery Stud (Bm72)

Race type: Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate mile tempo, with Trapalanda and Deal N' Dash likely rolling forward and the closers waiting for the tempo to wobble.
Punty read: This is the first proper quaddie headache of the day. Trapalanda is the likely hard-fit type to stalk and strike, but Deal N' Dash is too short for the profile and the map is a touch against him. Concordia Wind has been hammered in the market from $9 into $7 and the money says the stable thinks he can run over the top if they get the speed right. Hot Bandit has been smashed from $17 to $9 and that sort of support is always worth respecting, but the weight note says he's not a free square. Dances With Hooves is the one if the leaders get greedy and the soft 5 starts to bite. This one has more moving parts than an Avengers movie.

Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)

1. Trapalanda (No.4) — $3.07 / $1.95

Bet $14.50 Each Way ($7.25W + $7.25P), return $22.26 (wins) / $14.14 (places) Prob 16.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.75x Why Maps to sit right on the speed and gets the right sort of run to be in the fight when it matters.

1. Deal N' Dash (No.10) — $2.57 / $1.65

Bet Tracked Prob 16.2% | Place: 58.5% | Value: 0.63x Why Market says he should be right there, but the price is doing all the heavy lifting and the map isn't exactly a love story.

1. Concordia Wind (No.11) — $7.00 / $2.35

Bet $8.00 Place, return $18.80 Prob 11.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.23x Why The one with the nice closing pattern and the market shove to back it up; if they overdo the speed, he comes into it hard. Roughie: Dances With Hooves (No.9) — $21.00 / $4.60 Bet Tracked Prob 3.5% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.10x Why First-time gear plus a race shape that could unravel gives him a sneaky path if the on-pacers get in a scrap and the others are left flat-footed.

Race 5 - Catanach's Jewellers (Bm72)

Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, with Mrs Maree likely leading and the pace horses making this a proper test.
Punty read: Chaos handicap time, baby. Scintilla is a lovely each-way play because she gets the right on-pace position and can keep rolling through the line, while Deep Pleasure is the favourite but not the sort of favourite you want to be marrying on a first date. Mrs Maree is the one controlling it up front, but the model isn't keen enough to pay for the privilege on her place line. Infusion has had the cash as well, with blinkers on, and if the stable's landed the right little spark, she can get into the finish - but this is the sort of race where one wrong step and you're looking at the screen like it's the final scene of The Sopranos.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Scintilla (No.1) — $7.50 / $2.65

Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), return $48.75 (wins) / $17.22 (places) Prob 14.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.58x Why The map is right, the soft track is fine, and she looks the one who can sit handy and keep finding under pressure.

1. Deep Pleasure (No.2) — $3.32 / $2.15

Bet Tracked Prob 14.1% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 0.70x Why Good horse, but too skinny for a race that can turn into a dog's breakfast late.

1. Mrs Maree (No.6) — $6.00 / $2.25

Bet Tracked Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.27x Why She'll give a sight from the front, but the price line on the place side is not quite juicy enough to have a serious go. Roughie: Infusion (No.8) — $10.00 / $3.30 Bet Tracked Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 2.07x Why Blinkers on can wake one up, and if he lands near the speed and the others go to sleep, he's the sort that can pinch a slice.

Race 6 - Irresistible Pools And Spas (Bm72)

Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, with Canadian Ruler pressing on and the backmarkers needing a solid speed burn.
Punty read: This is another race where the market is sniffing around a few, but the model's happy to be a bit colder than the crowd. Airworthy is the one they keep backing and the map makes sense - he can sit close and take the right run - so even though the favourite is short, he's still the starting point. Swift Legend is the strong runner-on type but the saver isn't attached, which tells you the place line isn't fat enough. Unstopabull is the one if the leaders go too hard and the race opens up late. High Blue Sea is the roughie with a bit of a shape if the tempo truly sizzles, but the stable/jockey combo isn't screaming "write your own ticket". Dusty Bay and Steel Blaze have both drifted like they've forgotten their wallet at the pub, and that usually isn't a sign to load up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Airworthy (No.13) — $4.30 / $1.80

Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), return $27.95 (wins) / $11.70 (places) Prob 13.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.76x Why Gets the kind of map that lets Tim Clark put him where he wants him, and if he controls the race at all, he's the one they have to gun down.

1. Swift Legend (No.5) — $9.15 / $3.10

Bet Tracked Prob 11.1% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.31x Why Honest as the day is long, but the price doesn't quite justify doubling down when the main job is to hit the line.

1. Unstopabull (No.12) — $11.50 / $3.80

Bet Tracked Prob 11.1% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.65x Why The one who can fly late if the speed melts, but he's relying on a pretty specific race shape to come to life. Roughie: High Blue Sea (No.4) — $14.00 / $4.00 Bet Tracked Prob 4.8% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.88x Why If the leaders burn petrol and the back half gets a perfect tow into the straight, he can be the thief in the night.

Race 7 - TAB (Bm72)

Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, with Zale, Astronomix and a few others making sure nobody gets a picnic.
Punty read: Last race, fresh air, and a few sweaty palms. Astronomix is the horse they all have to beat and the market knows it - the thing's been firming, the map is right, and the front-end speed gives the rest a headache. Clear Proof is the sort that can stalk and pounce if the leaders go too hard, while Zaragoza and Indefensible are the roughier shapes who can land a blow if the tempo gets honest and the wide lanes pay off. Tarpaulin is the freshie with a couple of excuses in the tank, but he's still a bit of a lottery ticket. There's enough backing around for the crowd to make noise, but the drifters like Zale and Indecisive are telling you not everybody is getting the same script.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Astronomix (No.6) — $2.22 / $1.57

Bet $10.50 Win, return $23.31 Prob 14.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.58x Why The one with the right map and the right speed; if it gets to control the front end, it'll take a fair bit of knocking over.

1. Clear Proof (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50

Bet Tracked Prob 9.7% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.20x Why A good stalking run is on offer, but the place line isn't quite the sweet spot for the saver.

1. Zaragoza (No.5) — $10.00 / $3.30

Bet Tracked Prob 9.7% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.71x Why Wide gate and a bit of map work needed, but if they overcook the speed and he gets one clean crack late, he's a sneaky one to run over the top. Roughie: Tarpaulin (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.30 Bet Tracked Prob 9.5% | Place: 34.0% | Value: 1.68x Why Fresh horse, fresh legs, and if the race turns into a messy sit-and-sprint he can be the little bastard who sneaks into the picture.

SEQUENCE LANES — SINGLE OPTIMISED TICKET

QUADDIE (R4-7)

Smart: 10,4,11,1 / 1,6,8,2 / 13,5,12,9 / 6,2,5,10 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
Four open legs, so this is a proper survival ticket, not a nap. You get one tight-ish anchor in each leg, but the whole thing still needs a bit of divine intervention and a decent payout to make it worth the sweat.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Soft 5 plus rail movement
On this card, the handy runners from decent draws are the ones that get first shot at control. If you're buried back and relying on magic, you're already behind the eight ball.
2 - The steam is not always the truth
Omolong, Spain, Hot Bandit, Tanglewood Jimmy, Airworthy and Astronomix have all taken money, but some of them are proper plays and some are just the crowd getting excited. The key is whether the map and price still line up after the move.
3 - Drifters are waving the red flag
Zale, Indecisive, Lady Beauvoir and a few others have eased out, which is usually the market telling you the table's gone quiet. Not always a dead set no-hoper, but it's the sort of thing that should make you blink before you back one blind.

THE DEGEN DEN

It's a meeting for the patient punter, not the trigger-happy mug who backs every steam and wonders why the bank's crook by Race 5. Stick to the map, trust the place money where the shape says so, and don't go chasing every shiny thing that lights up the tote board. Gamble Responsibly.