Wednesday, 24 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate speed with Pin Up Sheila and Sambuca Sky pressing on; Scuro Star should get the better run midfield and Tatiana is the swooper if they overdo it.
Punty read: This is a neat little opener where the front pair look to control it, but I keep coming back to No.1 Pin Up Sheila because she draws to do no work and can boss the race from the moment the lids fly. No.3 Sambuca Sky has had a stack of market attention and is the obvious danger, but it's got to prove that money is right rather than just loud. No.2 Scuro Star is the one that can be bailed up and still hit the line if the leaders turn it into a burn-up, while No.9 Tatiana is the one chugging home late hoping the speed boys have had a dual at the 600m. If this turns tactical rather than brutal, the race could look like a Netflix sequel - plenty of hype, not much plot - and Pin Up Sheila is the horse with the cleanest script.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Pin Up Sheila (No.1) — $2.55 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$23.25
Prob 36.5% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.07x
Why Maps to lead or box seat, and in a moderate-tempo sprint with a softish track she gets first crack at them. The one to run down.
2. Sambuca Sky (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$10.50
Prob 15.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.90x
Why Heavily backed and must be respected, but the money isn't enough to drag me into extra insurance. Can make a race of it if she lands on the speed.
3. Scuro Star (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.80 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 60.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why The map gives this one a nice stalking run, and if the leaders overcook it, she'll be right there late. Just not enough place value in this thin little field to chase it harder.
Roughie: Tatiana (No.9) — $9.70 / $3.70 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 0.97x
Why Backmarker with a genuine late swoop, but with only two places paid the saver doesn't stack up. Needs the front half to fall in a heap and that's a big ask.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, likely a sit-and-sprint where position and timing matter more than raw gas.
Punty read: This is a weird little race where the clock might be so slow you could make a cup of tea in the straight. No.7 Omolong has been crunched and the market is basically shouting that this is the one, while No.10 Spain has also had support and looks the logical danger. No.2 Dubious Express is the sort of horse you keep in the back pocket if they dawdle, because a slow-run 1100m can hand a backmarker the perfect audition to nick the lot late. No.4 I'm Relevant is the roughie that can sneak into the frame if the inside lane gifts it a cosy run, but this looks like a race where the short ones have the cleaner shapes and the outsiders are praying for a collapse like a bad Marvel reboot.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Omolong (No.7) — $1.91 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.65
Prob 24.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.54x
Why Crunched in the market and the stable knows how to place these types. If he lands handy in this crawl, he gets every chance to nick it.
2. Spain (No.10) — $3.05 / $1.37 🏆 5TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 24.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.86x
Why Another one the market has backed with both hands, but the tempo is the issue - slow race, short price, don't overcook it.
3. Dubious Express (No.2) — $13.75 / $3.80 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 2.76x
Why Massive place chance if they crawl early and the leaders hand the race over late, but the betting plan keeps the ammo for the top pair.
Roughie: I'm Relevant (No.4) — $21.50 / $5.00 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 2.34x
Why Could get a cheap run from the fence and sneak into the minor money, but the race shape doesn't scream 'blowout' unless the tempo goes full dead-set snooze.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Crossways the class horse and Farfetched likely to be the one sitting up near the speed.
Punty read: This is the sort of maiden that eats mugs alive - the favourite is short, the map is messy, and everyone else thinks they've got a sneaky angle. No.1 Crossways has the best engine in the race and the widest gate doesn't bother me nearly as much in a slow-run maiden because class can still drag you through the noise. No.15 Zoufame has been firming and has every right to be thereabouts, but the model says the price has come in a touch too far for comfort. No.10 Farfetched is the one with the on-pace shape to keep rolling and pinch a place, while No.2 Indigo Star keeps showing up like an extra in a war film - always in the scene, rarely the hero. This is the kind of race where one horse can look miles better than the form suggests if the others are just a bit... well, maiden-ish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Crossways (No.1) — $2.41 / $1.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $11.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 43.3% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Best horse in the maiden and the one they all have to catch. If he gets any sort of run from the gate, the class edge should do the rest.
2. Zoufame (No.15) — $2.46 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.0% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.20x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Farfetched (No.10) — $7.30 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.80
Prob 15.5% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.64x
Why Maps beautifully near the speed and should keep finding in the straight. The place play makes the most sense because it can run a race without having to be a superstar.
Roughie: Indigo Star (No.2) — $38.50 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.8% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.57x
Why Keeps getting excuses and can lurk into the minors if the race turns ugly, but the win case is thin and the wallet's better served elsewhere.
Race type: Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Trapalanda likely to settle forward, Deal N' Dash and Concordia Wind closing late, and Dances With Hooves needing the right burn-up.
Punty read: Here we go - the quaddie starts and the market's already had a proper rummage through this race. No.4 Trapalanda is the one the map leans on: barrier 2, on-pace, fit, and from a yard that can place them like a chess move. No.10 Deal N' Dash has the right kind of profile to be right in the finish, but the model isn't keen enough to do anything silly with it. No.11 Concordia Wind is the nasty late threat - the one that can be bailed up, then switch off the bridle and sting you if you're not paying attention. And No.9 Dances With Hooves has had a monster market shove and the first-time gear is a heads-up, but it's still a backmarker who needs the race to break open like a dropped slab of Carlton Dry. If the speed is honest, the finish could get very interesting very quickly.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Trapalanda (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.35 🏆 2ND
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — Cashed, net -$3.45
Prob 24.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.92x
Why Maps to sit on the speed and gets a lovely setup in a moderate 1600m. In this sort of race, the one with the cleaner map usually gets first shot.
2. Deal N' Dash (No.10) — $4.45 / $1.55 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.89x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Concordia Wind (No.11) — $5.75 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.50
Prob 17.4% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why Backmarker with a nice enough place shape if they go forward hard enough. This is the sort of horse that can charge home when the leaders are feeling it.
Roughie: Dances With Hooves (No.9) — $28.00 / $4.80 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.57x
Why Big market shove and fresh gear always gets the pub talking, but the path to winning is narrow. Needs the race to unravel and then needs to finish over the top of them.
Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Mrs Maree leading and a bunch of on-pace runners likely to keep it honest.
Punty read: This is the chaos race of the day and I bloody love it. No.2 Deep Pleasure has the right map, the right draw, and a trainer setup that suggests this is no picnic for the others. No.1 Scintilla is the sneaky anchor - soft track, handy gate, and the sort of honest style that keeps you in the fight all the way to the line. No.6 Mrs Maree is the one setting the tempo, but the market has already had a sniff and I don't want to get too cute following every drifter and firmer like it's a stock market forum. No.4 Mamushka had the big price support elsewhere in the week and can bounce back if allowed to roll forward, but this feels like one where the leaders will be under pressure and the back-end runners get their shot late. Think Moneyball meets Mad Max - plenty of moving parts, not much comfort.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Deep Pleasure (No.2) — $5.10 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 16.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.99x
Why Gets a lovely running spot from barrier 3 and should be right in the sweet zone with genuine speed on. Best bet in the race if you want the race run to suit.
2. Mrs Maree (No.6) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Scintilla (No.1) — $7.20 / $2.35 🏆 7TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 14.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why Honest as the day is long, loves the conditions, and can sit on the speed without getting flustered. This is the kind of place play that keeps a card alive.
Roughie: Wear The Crown (No.9) — $22.00 / $4.60 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.92x
Why Can run on if they overdo it up front, but the value isn't screaming hard enough to force a save. Better to keep it as a watch list horse than a wallet hole.
Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Canadian Ruler out in front and enough pressure around him to keep the race honest.
Punty read: This is another one where the short price favourite is there to be worked over. No.9 Champagne Hero has the right mix of market respect, map, and freshen-up to be the main play, while No.5 Swift Legend is the swooper that can be humming late if the front end gets spicy. No.13 Airworthy has been backed like it's got a secret handshake, but the model isn't sold enough to force a bet at the price. No.4 High Blue Sea has come in the market and deserves respect, but from a wider alley in a genuine race it still has to earn its lunch. This is a classic "don't get cute, but don't get greedy" race - the kind where the winner can look obvious in hindsight and still cost you three mental breakdowns on the day.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Champagne Hero (No.9) — $7.00 / $2.45 🏆 8TH
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 13.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why First-up, gelded, blinkers off, and maps close enough to get every crack at them. In a genuine pace race, that's the sort of setup that wins money.
2. Airworthy (No.13) — $4.60 / $1.75 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.72x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Swift Legend (No.5) — $9.50 / $3.00 🏆 5TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 10.7% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.21x
Why Backmarker with the right shape if they go hard enough up front. The place profile is the sweet spot in a race with a bit of bite.
Roughie: High Blue Sea (No.4) — $13.50 / $3.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.74x
Why Big market support and a live map, but the weight and soft-track angle mean it still has to do a bit of work. Live chance, just not the one I'm forcing into the ticket.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Zale on the speed and a stack of runners trying to land just off them.
Punty read: Final race and the form guide has gone full rock'n'roll. No.6 Astronomix is the one the model wants, and even though it draws a bit awkwardly, the horse has the right combination of freshness, class and enough early toe to sit in the game. No.5 Zaragoza is the big drift on the map and the market has been mixed, but it still has enough talent to be dangerous if it gets a smooth run. No.2 Clear Proof has firmed and should be right there in the mix, but the race shape suggests the late pressure may hurt a few. No.15 Dear Jewel is the roughie that keeps the shape honest, but it's more of a smoky than a sermon. This one feels like the card's last smoke alarm - if the pace is honest, the decent horses get their turn.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Astronomix (No.6) — $3.47 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$0.53
Prob 15.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.67x
Why Fresh enough, in the right yard, and has the map speed to stay in touch despite the draw. In a genuine tempo sprint, that can be enough to get the job done.
2. Zaragoza (No.5) — $7.50 / $2.45 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.28x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Clear Proof (No.2) — $9.30 / $3.00 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.29x
Why Has been firming and that usually gets the ears up, but this is a race where the late pressure can make the honest types look a bit ordinary. Close enough to respect, not close enough to force.
Roughie: Dear Jewel (No.15) — $10.50 / $3.30 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.49x
Why Can bob up if the front end overcooks it, but it's not the sort of roughie I want to build a ticket around. More of a "keep an eye on it" horse than a "get on and scream" horse.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,4,11,14 / 6,1,2,5 / 13,9,5,10 / 6,2,5,15 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Pin Up Sheila (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $2.55
2 - Omolong (Race 2, No.7)✓ Won — $1.91
3 - Crossways (Race 3, No.1) — $2.41
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Warwick Farm on a Soft 5 with the rail out and a bit of wind in the teeth - not a bog, but not a picnic either. This looks like one of those cards where the map matters a heap early, then the back half turns into a proper punter's knife fight with a few open races and a couple of shorties trying to look like good things.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Warwick Farm, 1100m-1600m card
Rail: +5m 1000m- Winning Post, +3m Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair-to-on-pace, with the better lanes likely to sit handy)
Weather: Sunny day, shower or two, 16C, humid and a bit breezy (watch for gusts and a late shower sting in the tail)
Early lane guess: Inside to middle lanes look the place to be; leaders and stalkers from decent draws should get every chance
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - Race 2 is the crawl, Race 3 is tactical, and the quaddie legs from Race 4 onwards get progressively more honest and more savage
Jockeys to follow:
Tommy Berry - when the money comes for one and the race shape gets messy, he usually finds the right lane and keeps the horse in the game
Dylan Gibbons - handy on the speed, no mucking around, and he gives the on-pace types every chance to control their own destiny
Nash Rawiller - the bloke you want when gaps matter and the race turns into a proper dogfight late
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (11 runners) - plenty of live chances across the card and a few of them are being aimed right where they can win
G Waterhouse & A Bott (2 runners) - the market has already had a sniff, and when these two have them ready they generally don't waste a trip
Annabel & Rob Archibald (3 runners) - a neat little hand through the mid-card, with maps, fitness and a bit of class all in play
Punty's take:
This meeting's got that classic Warwick Farm flavour: a bit of zip in the early races, then a slow squeeze into the middles where the market starts talking itself into the obvious ones. The Soft 5 won't be a bog, but it's enough to make every little map edge matter - especially with the rail out and the gusty wind giving the swoopers a bit of a rude shock if they get too far back.
Race 1 is a decent little speed puzzle, Race 2 is a proper crawl-and-sprint job, and Race 3 is a maiden where the favourite will be awkwardly short and everyone else will be trying to pretend they're not guessing. Then the quaddie turns into the main event: R4 through R7 is where the meeting grows teeth. There's enough market support floating around to keep you interested, but also enough drift and nonsense to make you think the bagman's got a hangover.
What it means for you:
Don't go full hero mode early. Pin Up Sheila, Omolong and Crossways are the spine to build around, and if you're playing the $10 multi, that's your cleanest way into the day. After that, the money should lean more to place and each way than trying to smash every race on the nose like a bloke who just discovered caffeine and confidence.
The big lesson here is simple: respect the horses with the map and the market behind them, but don't chase every steaming shortie like it's free money. Warwick Farm on a Soft 5 can flat-out punish wide swoopers if the tempo isn't hot enough, so the place plays and the sound each way anchors are the sensible bones in the body. The quaddie is a lane, not a donation box - keep your nerve, trust the shapes, and don't get sucked into the roughie fever if the pattern isn't screaming for it.