No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Benchmark 72, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow burn early; on-pace gets the comfy chair, backmarkers need luck and a gap that exists.
Punty read: With the pace flagged slow, this is a "positional bully" kind of race. If they walk, anything buried back on the paint needs the seas to part like Moses. The market's steaming into a couple, but you still want horses that can launch without needing an act of Parliament to get clear.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Iceman (No.3) — $3.60 / $1.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.30
Prob 55.4% | Place: 57.4% | Value: 0.76x
Why Barrier helps in a crawl-up front, and he's the kind that's always around the money if he sees daylight.
2. Starphistocated (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.97 🏆 WINNER
Bet $2.50 Each Way ($1.25W + $1.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$3.50
Prob 27.6% | Place: 54.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why Maps sweet enough despite the tricky draw, and the new tongue tie screams "we're tightening the screws".
3. Geemes (No.4) — $11.00 / $4.33 🏆 5TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 30.4% | Place: 30.6% | Value: 1.47x
Why Winning profile, and if they stroll, midfield with cover is absolute gold at Rosehill.
Roughie: Equilibrist (No.5) — $34.00 / $18.90 🏆 7TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 20.0% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 1.08x
Why Gets a softer weight swing and if the leaders overdo the "Sunday drive", he's the one launching late.
Race type: Class 3, 1300m
Map & tempo: Another slow-ish run setup; leaders and on-pace runners are licking their lips.
Punty read: These Highways can be a punch-on, but when the tempo's soft, the inside lanes and the blokes camped just off them get first crack. If you're getting too far back, you're basically hoping everyone in front forgets how to ride.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Rose Aye (No.11) — $3.50 / $1.83 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.50
Prob 26.6% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.37x
Why Pace helps, but the wide gate means you want a smart ride early to avoid a death march.
2. Solitario (No.6) — $4.80 / $2.50 🏆 12TH
Bet $2.50 Each Way ($1.25W + $1.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Prob 30.0% | Place: 45.8% | Value: 0.79x
Why J-Mac booked is never an accident, and he'll be where the race is.
3. Micro Mikki (No.4) — $9.00 / $1.00 🏆 5TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 30.0% | Place: 32.3% | Value: 0.94x
Why Held up last time, and in a sit-sprint he only needs one clean shift to be a pest late.
Roughie: The Main Event (No.18) — $201.00 / $50.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$108.50
Prob 8.6% | Place: 8.3% | Value: 3.01x
Why Absolute filth price, but in these races chaos happens and a bomber can lob if the lanes open.
Race type: Benchmark 78, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate; a few want to roll forward so it won't be a complete picnic.
Punty read: This is a proper "who gets the right trail" race. Plenty of speed engaged, but not necessarily a full meltdown. The wide gates for some on-pacers means a couple will be doing work early, and that can set it up for the stalkers and the late swoopers if they overcook it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Eagle Express (No.6) — $4.50 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 34.9% | Place: 35.3% | Value: 0.95x
Why Draws to land midfield with cover and J-Mac can make a mess of them late if the speed holds.
2. Bev’s Nine (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 34.9% | Place: 35.5% | Value: 0.95x
Why Undefeated for a reason and maps to be right in the fight, even from the awkward alley.
3. Hezdarnhottoo (No.5) — $10.00 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.40
Prob 29.7% | Place: 30.0% | Value: 0.96x
Why Winkers off can sharpen him up, and if he's right physically he's a genuine top-3 nuisance.
Roughie: Shropshire Lad (No.10) — $17.00 / $6.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 8.7% | Place: 20.4% | Value: 1.73x
Why If the speed cooks itself, he's the one who can blouse them late at a price.
Race type: Benchmark 78, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate; a couple of leaders, and barrier draw matters more than feelings.
Punty read: This is where Rosehill +5m can be a prick. If you're handy with cover, you're living. If you're caught wide, you're paying for it the whole way. The favourite's short but there's sneaky value lurking, and the pace doesn't look like it'll completely fall apart for backmarkers.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Monte Veebee (No.14) — $2.80 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.10
Prob 35.7% | Place: 41.9% | Value: 0.42x
Why Maps to stalk the speed and be there when it counts, even if the price is ugly.
2. Transcend (No.13) — $4.80 / $2.10 🏆 9TH
Bet $2.50 Each Way ($1.25W + $1.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Prob 12.5% | Place: 48.2% | Value: 0.73x
Why On-pace type who can control his own destiny, and gear tweaks can iron out the little quirks.
3. La Roja (No.12) — $5.50 / $3.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.25
Prob 35.4% | Place: 35.6% | Value: 0.85x
Why Blinkers on can light the fuse, and she's consistent enough to keep you sane.
Roughie: Manwari (No.15) — $201.00 / $38.90 🏆 12TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 13.0% | Place: 13.0% | Value: 4.06x
Why This is pure "if the race gets weird" juice, but the price is filthy enough to forgive yourself.
Race type: Benchmark 100, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate; leaders engaged but it's not an all-out war.
Punty read: This is the grown-ups race. Not a lot of mugs here, just who gets the right run and who's got the class to accelerate when asked. The favourite is short and probably lands midfield in a lovely spot, but Rosehill can punish horses that don't quicken at the exact right moment.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Lord Penman (No.2) — $2.60 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.90
Prob 22.2% | Place: 56.4% | Value: 0.78x
Why He's the class runner and if he gets the breaks, he's the one holding the trophy.
2. Magnatear (No.3) — $3.00 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.10
Prob 39.0% | Place: 40.6% | Value: 1.16x
Why Maps to be in the first wave and that keeps you out of trouble on this deck.
3. Palmetto (No.1) — $20.00 / $3.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.90
Prob 23.4% | Place: 22.6% | Value: 1.06x
Why Draw helps, can roll forward, and if he controls the race he'll stick his arse out and fight.
Roughie: Age Of Sail (No.7) — $41.00 / $5.00 🏆 6TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 20.9% | Place: 20.5% | Value: 1.24x
Why He'll be on the speed in a race where that's half the battle.
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine; juveniles with speed and no fear, which is terrifying for everyone involved.
Punty read: Two-year-olds are chaos goblins. One misses the start, one overraces, one finds the rail, and suddenly your "moral" is stone motherless. Still, the map says the leaders get their chance, and you want runners that can travel and quicken without needing a cuddle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Shiki (No.9) — $3.90 / $1.97 🏆 5TH
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 17.3% | Place: 52.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why On-pace in a 2YO race is a weapon, and if he's learned anything from last start interference he's right there.
2. Confederation (No.4) — $4.20 / $1.00 🏆 8TH
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 35.5% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 0.62x
Why J-Mac aboard, and the stable does not send them to the city for sightseeing.
3. Savage Look (No.5) — $35.00 / $10.80 🏆 6TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 25.8% | Place: 26.2% | Value: 1.35x
Why Blinkers first time can turn them from "kid on a scooter" into "kid on a dirt bike".
Roughie: Wave Blaster (No.10) — $101.00 / $14.40 🏆 9TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 19.4% | Place: 18.1% | Value: 1.36x
Why If the inside chops out and the leaders wobble late, he can swoop past tired legs at a stupid price.
Race type: Open, 1900m
Map & tempo: Hot pace; multiple leaders, multiple egos, and someone's getting folded.
Punty read: This is the kind of race where they go too hard, too early, then the last 300m looks like a nature documentary. If you're in the firing line doing work, you can be a sitting duck. You want the right blend: not last-and-lost, not first-and-fucked.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Travolta (No.6) — $3.10 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 14.8% | Place: 31.5% | Value: 0.58x
Why Best horse in it on paper, and with tempo pressure he gets a proper target to run at.
2. Piggyback (No.14) — $5.50 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.75
Prob 40.2% | Place: 41.2% | Value: 0.74x
Why Maps to be involved without being suicidal, and that's everything in a 1900m burn-up.
3. Sam Hawkens (No.15) — $4.60 / $4.10 🏆 8TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 24.5% | Place: 25.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why If he controls the speed without overcooking it, he can nick a place and maybe more.
Roughie: Changingoftheguard (No.4) — $71.00 / $11.30 🏆 6TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 13.5% | Place: 13.3% | Value: 1.56x
Why Hot tempo plus "blinkers off" can settle him and let him finish like he actually means it.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine; leader rolls, the stalkers queue up, the sprint's on from the bend.
Punty read: Small field, only 2 places paid, so you can't be playing "place safety blanket" like it's a Highway. You want Win-minded bets. Ninja is the obvious gun, but there's enough pressure/quality here that you want to be paid properly for the risk.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. Ninja (No.7) — $3.00 / $2.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.25
Prob 41.6% | Place: 42.2% | Value: 0.92x
Why Profiles as the top-liner and maps to get the last crack without doing the donkey work.
2. Napoleonic (No.5) — $3.90 / $3.10 🏆 2ND
Bet $2.50 Each Way ($1.25W + $1.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$0.38
Prob 20.7% | Place: 36.9% | Value: 0.85x
Why Honest type who turns up; if the leaders go too hard, he's the one launching into it.
3. Autumn Boy (No.1) — $3.70 / $1.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.80
Prob 33.9% | Place: 34.2% | Value: 0.72x
Why Barrier helps keep him out of trouble, and he can stalk the right bum all the way.
Roughie: Rivellino (No.6) — $31.00 / $7.30 🏆 5TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 16.8% | Place: 16.2% | Value: 1.00x
Why If they overdo it up front, he's the blow-in who can rattle home and spoil the party.
Race type: Open, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate; the pace-advantaged runner can take control if allowed.
Punty read: This is where barrier and tactical speed matter more than your favourite "last 600m" stat. If Lazzura lands on-pace with cover, she's going to be bloody hard to run down. The others need to either get the right trail or pray the leader overcooks it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Lazzura (No.1) — $2.10 / $1.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.00
Prob 54.4% | Place: 57.5% | Value: 0.57x
Why J-Mac, on-pace map, and in this grade that combo is basically a cheat code.
2. Cinsault (No.8) — $6.50 / $3.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $3.00 Each Way ($1.50W + $1.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$7.35
Prob 31.1% | Place: 53.9% | Value: 0.76x
Why Tough, consistent, and maps to be in the first few without needing luck.
3. Cilacap (No.3) — $14.00 / $7.80 🏆 6TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 31.1% | Place: 31.4% | Value: 1.11x
Why If she's got the turn of foot at this trip, she can absolutely lob into the top 3.
Roughie: Super Norwest (No.10) — $26.00 / $10.90 🏆 9TH
Bet $3.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 7.3% | Place: 22.7% | Value: 2.19x
Why If it turns into a messy sit-sprint and the fav cops any heat, this is the one who can blow the roof off.
Race type: Benchmark 94, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot tempo; multiple leaders, someone gets cooked, and the swoopers are circling.
Punty read: This is the kind of race where the first 400m decides who's alive at the 100m. Tonkin's flying, but the price is getting stomped like a beer can. Hawker Hall gets the pace advantage, and Kerguelen is the type who can lob into the right spot while everyone else is fighting for oxygen.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Tonkin (No.9) — $2.35 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.10
Prob 50.9% | Place: 53.5% | Value: 0.95x
Why Form says he's the real deal, and if he gets any breather at all, he'll be in the finish.
2. Hawker Hall (No.7) — $3.50 / $1.83 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.00 Each Way ($1.50W + $1.50P) — Cashed, net -$1.05
Prob 23.1% | Place: 34.9% | Value: 0.56x
Why Pace setup suits, and if he crosses/controls early he can take a stack of catching.
3. Kerguelen (No.2) — $8.50 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.60
Prob 54.2% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.69x
Why Honest runner who can stalk the speed and pick off the tired ones late.
Roughie: Les Vampires (No.1) — $151.00 / $8.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 18.6% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 1.53x
Why First-up type who can pinch a spot if the speed collapses and the inside lane opens.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,1,5,10 / 14,13,12,15 / 2,3,1 / 9,4,5,10 (192 combos x $0.31 = $60.00) -- 31% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,14,15,4 / 7,5,1,4 / 1,8,3 / 9,7,2,1 (192 combos x $0.31 = $60.00) -- 31% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2,3 / 9,4 / 6,14 / 7,5 / 1,8 / 9,7 (64 combos x $0.62 = $40.00) -- 62% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Lord Penman (Race 5, No.2)✓ Won — $2.60
2 - Ninja (Race 8, No.7)✓ Won — $3.00
3 - Lazzura (Race 9, No.1)✗ — $2.10
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Degenerates, Rosehill on a Good 4 with the rail out +5m and a warm cross-breeze… perfect conditions for front-runners to pinch a breather and for wide runners to get their ears pinned back like they've just copped a spray from the missus in Bunnings.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Rosehill, 1100, 1900m card
Rail: +5m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play pretty fair early, then reward cover/on-pace as the day cooks)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 28°C (watch for the heat + gusty little crosswind making 3-deep a horrible life choice)
Early lane guess: 1, 6 in running, stalk-and-pounce
Tempo profile: Mixed bag early (a couple of dawdles), then the late sprints go full Fast & Furious
Jockeys to follow:
James Mc Donald, rides the right ones and makes his own luck when everyone else is looking for a gap that doesn't exist
Nash Rawiller, if there's a fence-run to steal or a winner to bully into the race, he's your bloke
Tommy Berry, loves Rosehill angles and won't die wondering (especially when he's got a map)
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (11 runners), stacked across the card; if he's got one peaking, it'll be in the finish
G Waterhouse & A Bott (7 runners), speed, intent, and zero interest in "settling last and hoping"
Bjorn Baker (6 runners), pressure horses, fit runners, and they don't rock up for the vibes
Punty's take:
Rail +5m at Rosehill is the classic "don't be a hero from the carpark" setup. If you're posted wide with no cover, you're basically running on a treadmill while the inside brigade are in the lounge room watching Netflix. Add the WNW crosswind and it's even more brutal for anything looping 4-wide like it's auditioning for Mad Max.
Early doors we've got a couple of slow-ish run affairs (Race 1 and Race 2 scream "whoever lands closest, wins"), then it gets spicier. Race 6 is the 2YO slipper stuff where anything can happen (including your sanity leaving your body), Race 7 is a proper burn-up at 1900m, and the late 1100m (Race 10) is a speed duel where someone's getting cooked like a snag left on the barbie too long.
What it means for you:
Be selective with hero Win bets in the "open bunch" races. If it's a raffle, don't play like it's a mortgage payment. Protect with Place and play your roughies in the right price bands (and yeah, I know, I'm saying that while also eyeing off a few absolute lunatics at big odds… I'm a work in progress).
For sequences: keep it tighter than a set of new riding boots. We're not going six-deep every leg like a cooked unit chasing a lost weekend. Pick your spots, bank where you can, and accept that late-day sprints are where multis go to die.
PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI
These are the three bets the day leans on.
1 - Lord Penman (Race 5, No.2), $2.60
Why Class runner in this grade and the setup says he gets every chance to lob.
2 - Ninja (Race 8, No.7), $3.00
Why Profiles like the measuring stick in the Hobartville and maps to stalk, not suffer.
3 - Lazzura (Race 9, No.1), $2.10
Why On-pace in a race where that's a big deal, and the jockey upgrade is the cherry.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~12.83 = ~$128.31 collect