Saturday, 28 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: BM72, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with Audrey's Lane and Danish Prince capable of getting across; the headwind means those who sit too far back may need luck late.
Punty read: This is a race where the market has latched onto Annie's Rose, but the setup doesn't scream to just take the shortie and pray. Audrey's Lane has the map, the form, and the right sort of momentum, while Art Volant is the sneaky one off the better gate and with the gear tweak. Danish Prince has drifted like a tired balloon but still has a path through if he gets the right run. African Daisy is the rough one for the exotics - not a bet, but if the gaps open and the old bugger recovers his best, he can make noise.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Audrey's Lane (No.4) — $3.60 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 22.9% | Place: 59.8% | Value: 0.94x
Why Gets the kind of on-pace run Rosehill rewards on a Soft 7, and the market shove says the stable thinks she's ready to cash in.
2. Danish Prince (No.8) — $10.30 / $2.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.60
Prob 18.6% | Place: 52.1% | Value: 2.19x
Why Big drift is a worry, but if he finds the front-end spot he can pinch a cheque and maybe a cheeky win if the leaders go too hard.
3. Art Volant (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 14.3% | Place: 43.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Blinkers off and winkers on can sharpen him up, and the draw gives him every chance to lob into the right part of the race.
Roughie: African Daisy (No.1) — $34.00 / $5.50 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 3.31x
Why The rough path is there if he lands on speed and bounces back from the hampered run, but this isn't a lottery ticket race for me.
Race type: Open, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Barnavara and Bois D'argent likely to keep it genuine; the class runners should get their chance, but the soft ground will still punish the ones that overdo it early.
Punty read: Barnavara is the proper class anchor, the sort of mare that can come back off a long break and still punch like she owns the joint. Wootton Verni is the danger if the 2000m brings him to his pet distance, while Bois D'argent is the honest grinder who can sit handy and keep whittling away. Don't sleep on the roughie Our Anchorage - massive price, but if the leaders get soft sectionals he'll be in the frame longer than the crowd thinks.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Barnavara (No.2) — $1.72 / $1.20 🏆 4TH
Bet $19.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$19.50
Prob 38.5% | Place: 67.8% | Value: 0.78x
Why Class act resuming, and the market smoke says she's forward enough to stamp herself straight away.
2. Wootton Verni (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.95
Prob 27.9% | Place: 55.8% | Value: 1.65x
Why Fitter for the 2000m run, maps to get every chance, and this is the right kind of race to be sticking with him.
Roughie: Our Anchorage (No.5) — $46.00 / $7.00 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 14.4% | Value: 3.37x
Why Needs the race run to suit, but if this turns into a slog he can creep into the minor money like a bastard who sneaks the last sausage.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, with Plagiarism likely to roll along and a few others keen to stack up behind. The pace should be honest enough to give the on-pacers first crack, but not so brutal that the swoopers are out of the picture.
Punty read: This is a proper open race and the sort of heat where you either read it right or get mugged by the photo finish. Southend gets the nod because he can be the one stalking the speed and finishing the best of the bunch, Hardanger is the kind of runner you want when the market's a bit lazy, and Plagiarism is still the horse they have to catch if he gets the easy lead. Persian Wonder is the class note from the back half of the field, but I don't love being too deep in a race where the tempo should be fair and the track is likely to reward position.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.50 pool)
1. Southend (No.6) — $8.20 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$44.62
Prob 17.8% | Place: 49.2% | Value: 1.75x
Why Fresh enough, well placed, and likely to get the kind of run where he can stalk the speed and peel out when it matters.
2. Plagiarism (No.1) — $3.10 / $1.37 🏆 7TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 16.1% | Place: 45.7% | Value: 0.60x
Why Maps to be right in the firing line and the stable knows how to have one ready; just not excited enough to chase the skinny win price.
3. Hardanger (No.11) — $7.50 / $2.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 16.0% | Place: 45.5% | Value: 1.44x
Why Gear changes, solid enough track/trainer numbers, and he can lob into a nice spot if the leaders don't run away from him.
Roughie: Diameter (No.5) — $15.75 / $3.90 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 35.7% | Value: 2.23x
Why Has the back-up case if they overdo it early, but he needs the race to turn into a bit of a survival contest.
Race type: BM88, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Cool Jakey likely to crank it along; if the front half isn't cooked, the on-speed brigade gets the first swing at the bat.
Punty read: Captain Furai from barrier 1 is the sort of horse Rosehill can make look smart - cosy run, no excuses, and the money's already arrived. Our Queen is the clean on-pace play and Amreekiyah is the honest middle draw who can keep punching on a soft surface. Lilac is the rough one with the right weight profile and a map that isn't hopeless; if the pace is hotter than expected, she can clatter home and make the exotics look a bit less boring.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Captain Furai (No.11) — $3.40 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$25.30
Prob 20.7% | Place: 54.8% | Value: 0.79x
Why Barrier 1, strong market shove, and the race shape says he gets the perfect suck-run before peeling out.
2. Our Queen (No.13) — $3.60 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 18.5% | Place: 50.9% | Value: 0.75x
Why On-pace type that should get every chance to hold a forward position and keep taking ground late.
3. Amreekiyah (No.14) — $4.50 / $1.75 🏆 7TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 16.0% | Place: 45.8% | Value: 0.81x
Why Fits the tempo, has the class to sit in the right spot, and the soft surface shouldn't spook her.
Roughie: Lilac (No.5) — $21.00 / $4.60 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 2.13x
Why If the race goes a shade more genuine than the map suggests, she's the one that can sneak into the finish at a cheeky price.
Race type: Open, 2000m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with Shangri La Boy likely to roll forward and make it a proper staying test. The on-pace horses get first crack, but the class stays honest and the race shape should stretch the field.
Punty read: Shangri La Boy is the one with the map and the class blend, while Arcora looks the stablehorse that can sit handy and get a perfect ride. Brave Danza is the value horse if the tempo makes the finish a test, because he can keep chipping away when a few of the fancied ones are under the pump. Think Itz You is the roughie for the deep exotics - he needs the race to get a bit messy, but that big price isn't just wallpaper.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Shangri La Boy (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 22.7% | Place: 60.6% | Value: 1.28x
Why Gets to roll forward and control the race shape, which is exactly how you want a 2000m heat at Rosehill to pan out.
2. Arcora (No.1) — $2.47 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 22.1% | Place: 59.6% | Value: 0.62x
Why Honest, well-placed, and maps to get the right run if the race is run at a sensible staying clip.
3. Brave Danza (No.4) — $20.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Prob 14.0% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 3.15x
Why The one who can benefit if they go hard enough to bust up the leaders; that's the rough path and it's a live one here.
Roughie: Think Itz You (No.6) — $29.00 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 31.5% | Value: 3.15x
Why Needs a strong tempo and a bit of a collapse, but if the race turns into a staying scrap he can be in the last furlong with a lung full of excuses.
Race type: Open, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, which means positioning, class and a clean tactical ride matter more than brute speed. This is the kind of race where the first move can win it.
Punty read: Belle Cheval looks the right filly to carry the weight of expectation with the right gear tweaks and the right map, Salty Pearl is as honest as your old man's hammer and should be there again, and Ohope Wins is the class filly with the sort of profile that says she'll keep improving. Panova is the roughie with the right staying profile, but from the price she's more a spice rack than the main course.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Belle Cheval (No.2) — $2.60 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$28.75
Prob 27.7% | Place: 71.5% | Value: 0.84x
Why Classy filly, handy map, and the gear changes look designed to sharpen her right up for this exact assignment.
2. Salty Pearl (No.3) — $4.05 / $1.30 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.75
Prob 22.4% | Place: 63.9% | Value: 1.06x
Why Honest as they come, handles the ground, and she'll be right there when the race starts to get serious.
3. Ohope Wins (No.1) — $2.67 / $1.20 🏆 4TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 20.1% | Place: 59.8% | Value: 0.63x
Why First-up specialist with the right base and class edge; if she's forward enough, she'll fight out the finish.
Roughie: Panova (No.4) — $11.00 / $2.25 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 45.7% | Value: 1.78x
Why Slow tempo can drag her into the frame if the front-runners muck around, but she's not the one I'm trying to make a sermon out of.
Race type: Open, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Idle Flyer and Perfumist likely to get the right sort of run while the wind makes the backmarkers earn every inch.
Punty read: Idle Flyer is the obvious anchor, but the market's already got the memo, so the value hunting comes through Verona Rose and Perfumist. Verona Rose has the exact sort of setup this day is begging for: handy enough, good enough, and tough enough to fight out a finish. Perfumist is the blowout on the card if the leaders overdo it, and Tuileries is the drifter who still has enough class to ruin a few tickets if she gets the right gap. Modella is the one I'm happy to have in the deep background, not the front of the queue.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Idle Flyer (No.6) — $2.21 / $1.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$14.40
Prob 19.4% | Place: 52.5% | Value: 0.46x
Why Maps to get the right run and the stable knows how to place these - hard to knock when the race tempo suits.
2. Verona Rose (No.2) — $8.00 / $2.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 17.9% | Place: 49.7% | Value: 1.54x
Why Fresh enough and sitting just off the speed is exactly the sort of lane Rosehill likes to hand out on this setup.
3. Perfumist (No.9) — $20.25 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Prob 14.3% | Place: 41.9% | Value: 3.12x
Why Big price, but the shape of the race means she can land a bit closer than the market thinks and be the one charging late.
Roughie: Tuileries (No.5) — $11.00 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 39.5% | Value: 1.57x
Why The drift is ugly, but if she gets cover and the leaders overcook it, she can still make them sweat.
Race type: Open, 2400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, which screams tactics and class. If they crawl, the best horse can turn it into a sit-and-sprint; if they steady it too much, the backmarkers risk turning into decorative lawn ornaments.
Punty read: Dubai Honour is the class horse and the one I want on top, plain and simple. Aeliana is the mare with the right profile to sit in the race and be hard to beat, while Vauban looks the obvious danger if the tempo is sane and he gets the right trail. River Of Stars is the spicy roughie with the map to roll forward and make it interesting, and Piggyback is the bit of madness for those of you who like your ticket with a bit of gravel in it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Dubai Honour (No.1) — $3.70 / $1.22 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.60
Prob 31.0% | Place: 76.6% | Value: 1.26x
Why Proven class stayer on the right ground, and this looks like a race where class can do the talking if the pace is too slow for the others to make it a war.
2. Aeliana (No.9) — $1.76 / $1.04 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$0.09
Prob 29.2% | Place: 76.6% | Value: 0.56x
Why Proper class, loves the setup, and the form says she's the one they all have to go past.
3. Vauban (No.2) — $7.00 / $1.35 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.80
Prob 19.8% | Place: 65.2% | Value: 1.52x
Why Big drift but still a serious player if he gets the right tactical ride and the race turns into a grind.
Roughie: River Of Stars (No.7) — $41.00 / $3.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 28.8% | Value: 3.25x
Why Can be the one to overrun a few if they dawdle and then sprint, but I'm not using hope as a staking plan.
Race type: Open, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Globe and Sandpaper looking to apply pressure; the on-speed types have the tactical edge, but the race is open enough to let a value horse jump up and bite.
Punty read: Sepals is the favourite for a reason, but he's not the only horse in the street. Lord Penman is the juicy value line from the midfield, Feroce gets the right sort of run and has the form to stick on, and Globe is the roughie with the speed to make the race shape awkward for the others. If you think Rosehill 1500m on Soft is a picnic, you're kidding yourself - this is the sort of setup where position, confidence and a little bit of luck all need to shake hands.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Sepals (No.1) — $2.52 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 26.1% | Place: 64.1% | Value: 0.75x
Why Has the map, the consistency, and enough soft-ground ticks to be the one they all still have to catch.
2. Lord Penman (No.14) — $16.00 / $3.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$11.20
Prob 14.2% | Place: 42.5% | Value: 2.58x
Why The value horse in the race - gets in light enough, can sit midfield, and has the profile to storm home if the speed is honest.
3. Feroce (No.5) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 2ND
Bet $2.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.62
Prob 12.1% | Place: 37.2% | Value: 1.51x
Why Loved the way the market has trimmed him, and from barrier 1 he can get every possible favour in transit.
Roughie: Globe (No.2) — $26.00 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 35.4% | Value: 3.35x
Why If he controls or pressures the tempo enough, he can turn this into a very awkward race for the sit-and-sprinters.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, but with several on-speed types it can turn into a cutthroat little 1200m brawl. The wind plus the rail means the leaders will try to get away with murder, and the one who stalks best should have the last shot.
Punty read: King's Secret is the shortie, but the prices on Pallaton, Roselyn's Star and Celui are where the punting soul gets tempted. The market's already hit King's Secret and Roselyn's Star, which tells you the crowd has spotted the same lane - on pace or just off it. This is also one of those races where a big drifter like Media World isn't just a bad sign; it can be a sign the stable thinks the map or the setup has gone from ideal to cooked. De Bergerac and Signor Tortoni are the ones lurking in the shadows if the tempo goes fully feral.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. King's Secret (No.6) — $3.33 / $1.37 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 17.5% | Place: 47.2% | Value: 0.64x
Why The one they all have to beat, and the market support says the stable expects him to be right in the finish.
2. Pallaton (No.9) — $16.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 13.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 2.40x
Why The setup should suit a horse that can slot in and finish off, and the fresh gear change is worth respecting.
3. Roselyn's Star (No.15) — $11.00 / $3.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.40
Prob 12.6% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.53x
Why Has the exact right combination of consistency and market grunt to be a major player if the race gets run to suit.
Roughie: Celui (No.12) — $26.00 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 31.8% | Value: 3.06x
Why Wide enough in the market, but not a picnic runner - if the tempo is hot and the gaps appear, he can absolutely jump up and smack a few noses out of the way.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,1,11,4,5,14 / 11,13,14,5,15 / 2,1,4,5,6 / 2,3,1,4 (600 combos x $0.04 = $25.00) -- 4% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,2,9,5,7 / 1,9,2,7 / 1,14,5,2,8 / 6,9,15,12,3,1 (600 combos x $0.04 = $25.00) -- 4% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2 / 2 / 6 / 1 / 1 / 6 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Barnavara (Race 2, No.2)✗ — $1.72
2 - Captain Furai (Race 4, No.11)✓ Won — $3.40
3 - Dubai Honour (Race 8, No.1)✗ — $3.70
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Rosehill on a Soft 7 with the rail out +5m is the sort of day where the front-runners and handy types get first dibs at the buffet, while the swoopers need a bit of luck and a lot of clean air. The southerly headwind up the straight doesn't exactly hand the closers a free lunch either, so keep your eye on horses that can park near the speed and kick when the whips go up.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Rosehill, 1200m to 2400m card
Rail: +5m Entire
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play on-pace with stamina and track position mattering)
Weather: Mostly clear, 20°C, humidity 48%, wind 18km/h S (watch for a testing straight, harder for backmarkers to sustain a burst)
Early lane guess: On-pace and handy runners, with the better ground likely saving the fence-to-middle lanes
Tempo profile: Plenty of genuine tempo early, but the headwind up the straight means leaders can keep giving a kick; in the staying races, class and fitness still matter more than raw gate speed
Jockeys to follow:
James McDonald, when he's on a live one, the market usually knows before the rest of us finish our beer
Zac Lloyd, keeps getting the good rides and doesn't waste them
Tommy Berry, always dangerous when he can lob into a smooth run and strike late
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (a serious armada across the card), loaded with the class runners and a few nasty little improvers
Bjorn Baker (plenty engaged), gets them ready to travel and doesn't mind a soft track scrap
G Waterhouse & A Bott (multiple key runners), if one of theirs has pace and a map, watch out
Punty's take:
This is a proper Rosehill card, not one of those limp noodle meetings where everything looks the same on paper. The first thing you notice is the on-pace tilt: rail out, Soft 7, and a breeze in the straight means the bloke sitting third or fourth can often pinch a length on the swoopers who are trying to make up ground into a headwind like they're running up a bloody escalator.
The other thing? There's a split in the card. Early, you've got a few races where the map looks like a pub fight and the tempo should be honest. Later, a couple of races become more tactical, especially the staying stuff, where class and race fitness can trump the perfect draw. That's where horses like Barnavara, Dubai Honour and Aeliana come into the story - genuine class acts who can absorb pressure and still be there when the money's on the line.
The market has already had a nibble at a few of the right ones too. Audrey's Lane, Barnavara, King's Secret, La Fracas and Roselyn's Star have all had support, which tells you punters aren't asleep at the wheel. But the real sneaky angles are the horses whose form says "better than that last run" and whose map says they get their chance today. That's where the value lives - not in chasing every drifter like a mug punter at the last on a Friday.
What it means for you:
Don't be a hero trying to back every swooper off the back fence. On this track and under this wind, the horses that settle handy and keep rolling are the ones who can make your day, especially in the races with genuine pace. That's why the early quaddie wants some coverage, but the spine is still built around runners with map advantage and strong wet-track credentials.
If you're playing the exotics, keep it honest: open up the chaotic races, lean harder on the clear map edges, and don't get seduced by roughies just because they're paying a back-breaking price. The roughie has to have a path to winning, not just a barcode and a dream. The big money is in the races where the tempo and the track tell the same story - that's where the punting becomes less guessing and more reading the room like a seasoned prick at the poker table.