Saturday, 13 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the horse who gets the right spot early can control the tempo and make the others chase
Punty read: This is a proper "can the favourite go on with it?" race. Friendly Fire looked to have come through his Wagga and Randwick runs in the right shape, and with the tempo likely to be measured, he doesn't need to be a track-record horse to win - just a sane one. Heard Of Him is the kind of runner who can improve with a bit more room and a bit more trip, while Marwooba is the roughie with a path if the race gets muddled and the backmarkers come into play late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Friendly Fire (No.1) — $1.71 / $1.17 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 44.4% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.87x
Why He looks the best horse in the race, plain and simple - the last-start effort suggested he's got more upside than most of these, and the map doesn't look like it will give him grief.
2. Heard Of Him (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 17.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.02x
Why The extra trip helps and he can sit handy enough to get his chance if the favourite doesn't totally boss it.
3. Marwooba (No.5) — $8.20 / $2.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.19x
Why The talent's there, but the drift says the market isn't exactly throwing confetti at him - still, if they overcook the front end he can lob late.
Roughie: Iminastate (No.8) — $10.50 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.23x
Why Blinkers off can sharpen the mind, and if he switches on late he's the sort who can clatter into the minors at a price.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, which gives the on-speed runners a fair crack but still leaves room for a strong closer if they go too hard early
Punty read: The market has gone feral for a few of these - Smashing Time, Mother Goose, Zounaka and Xpresso have all had the ATM treatment - but this still feels like a race where the right horse on the right part of the track wins. Smashing Time is the obvious map horse, Mother Goose gets another crack at a trip she handles, and She Swings is the one who can be running on when the dust settles. Xpresso is the roughie with the "if they go too hard, I'm flying" profile.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Smashing Time (No.1) — $2.21 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$8.40
Prob 30.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.80x
Why He maps to get every chance, and after that speed-dominating performance last time you can see why the market is all over him like flies on a snag.
2. She Swings (No.9) — $4.50 / $1.40 🏆 5TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 20.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.12x
Why Wide enough to worry, but she's the one likely to be charging home when others are gasping - perfect place play if the leaders turn it into a dogfight.
3. Mother Goose (No.3) — $4.70 / $1.40 🏆 8TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 18.7% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.05x
Why The wet run last start was a pass mark at best; back on top of the ground and with a decent map, she looks the kind to bounce back.
Roughie: Xpresso (No.6) — $13.00 / $2.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.85x
Why If they overcook it up front, this bloke is the late swooper who could make the finish look silly.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with a few promising types on the move and enough pressure to make this a proper open Highway
Punty read: This is the sort of race that makes grown men stare into a beer like it's got the answer. Hammoon Sensation has the front-end muscle and the class to make things hard, Red Rags To Bulls has a decent path if the pace isn't soft, and Concoction is the one with the late splits that scream danger. Bide Your Time is the roughie with the map help - the speed can set it up for him if the leaders start playing Grand Theft Auto with each other.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Hammoon Sensation (No.4) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — Cashed, net -$0.65
Prob 14.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.85x
Why Held up last time and still finished with enough merit - if he gets a clean run from barrier 1 he can control his own destiny a bit.
2. Red Rags To Bulls (No.7) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why The drift's a warning sign, but the soft-track form and handy map keep him right in the play if this turns into a grind.
3. Concoction (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.19x
Why Last-start finish was sneaky good and if the race gets a bit line-and-length after a genuine tempo, he's the one who can pick them up.
Roughie: Bide Your Time (No.20) — $12.00 / $3.80 🏆 14TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.74x
Why Gets the sort of pace map that can make a roughie look genius - if they go too hard, he can be the horse swooping through the wreckage.
Race type: HANDICAP, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, which usually means patience first, panic later
Punty read: This is the sneaky tricky one where the replay can be uglier than a shark doco. Nobler is the obvious class horse and gets the right kind of run if they crawl, Belle Detelle has been thrown into the hot-money blender, and King Pedro has the profile of a horse that can keep showing up. Perfect Play is the one the numbers like in the background - if they truly dawdle and then sprint, he can absolutely mug them late, which is why it's such a bastard of a race to price.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Nobler (No.5) — $3.30 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.80
Prob 28.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.14x
Why Maps like the bloke who's been handed the keys to the pub - gets every chance, the form is rock-solid, and the stable market says he's here to mean business.
2. Belle Detelle (No.8) — $4.40 / $1.55 🏆 6TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 16.3% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.93x
Why Wide-ish and likely to be held up in the run, but her consistency says she can still land in the money without ever looking flashy.
3. King Pedro (No.4) — $4.20 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.45
Prob 16.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.86x
Why Two good runs back and the trainer's suggesting he's ready to rumble - if the race becomes a slog, he's right in the fold.
Roughie: Prince Eric (No.7) — $17.75 / $3.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.81x
Why Needs a bit of luck and the race to stretch out, but the winkers again could sharpen him enough to clunk into the frame.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the first horse to get comfortable could still hold the whip hand late
Punty read: This is a race where the market's had a good hard sniff: Surf's Up, Ertijaaj, Tarzing and John Dory have all been leaned on, and you can see why. Surf's Up is the one who has been in the right races and gets a nice setup from barrier 2, Tarzing has the sort of fresh-ish profile that can keep improving, and Ertijaaj looks the natural on-pace type to make life awkward for the others. Damien is the roughie, but he needs the race to turn into a proper scrap rather than a nice little sit-and-sprint.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Surf's Up (No.6) — $2.82 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.80
Prob 19.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.68x
Why Gets the right map, has the right form, and the market's already said "thanks very much" with the big squeeze.
2. Tarzing (No.11) — $5.35 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.62
Prob 17.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.12x
Why Fresh enough to keep improving and the gear tweaks can sharpen him up - the sort of horse that keeps finding the line when the heat comes on.
3. Ertijaaj (No.8) — $4.90 / $1.60 🏆 5TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 17.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.07x
Why Promising mare, right sort of map, and she can put herself in the race without needing a miracle.
Roughie: Damien (No.2) — $16.00 / $3.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.03x
Why If he finally gets the right run and isn't caught in traffic, he can punch home a bit of a result at a fat number.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but with genuine early burners - this could get filthy in a hurry
Punty read: This is the race where the jocks will be sweating in the saddle before they even jump. Neil and Without Parallel are the obvious pace players, Candlewick gets a map that shouldn't be too painful if he finds the right slot, and Royal Flare is the sort of horse that can get the perfect tow through the race. The market has been paying attention too - Candlewick's had the squeeze, and the drifters tell you the market's not loving the others nearly as much. This is a race where the lead can change like a drunk at the TAB changing bets every 30 seconds.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Candlewick (No.2) — $7.20 / $2.40 🏆 9TH
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.28x
Why Has the map help, the right stable, and enough fresh gear intent to say they're having a real crack.
2. Couples Retreat (No.3) — $6.65 / $2.35 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.13x
Why Consistent as they come and if he gets a clean passage in a speed race, he'll be there when the others are waving white flags.
3. Royal Flare (No.7) — $7.55 / $2.50 🏆 6TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 11.5% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why This bloke loves a fresh run and can sit on the right back of the speed battle before pouncing late.
Roughie: Without Parallel (No.6) — $10.50 / $3.20 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why If the leaders cook themselves, he's the one who can swoop through the wreckage like Batman on a deadline.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, and that usually means the horse with the cleanest run and the best turn of foot gets the last laugh
Punty read: The sprint races at Rosehill can be absolute murder if you pick the wrong horse - too much speed, too much pressure, and then one swooper pops out of the pack like a plot twist. Hezdarnhottoo is the model's preferred anchor because he can sit close and still finish the job, Lightning Glory is the obvious pace horse, and Snack Bar is the one that could look a million bucks if the leaders knife each other early. Big Papa is the favourite, but at the price he's the bloke everyone else is happy to see parked in the front bar.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Hezdarnhottoo (No.5) — $7.10 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$2.60
Prob 14.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.25x
Why Maps well enough to be in the fight all the way and has the right profile for a tempo that should be keen.
2. Lightning Glory (No.7) — $6.75 / $2.35 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why He'll be in the firing line early and the stable knows how to get these types rolling, but the price has already copped a fair haircut.
3. Snack Bar (No.8) — $7.75 / $2.50 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.32x
Why Not exactly a trust exercise at the price, but if the leaders overdo it he's the one who can charge through late and make mugs of us all.
Roughie: Midnight Opal (No.1) — $11.00 / $3.30 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.23x
Why Held up last start and gets a handy enough map - if he gets clear galloping room, he can absolutely run into the finish.
Race type: Open;, 2400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, which should keep the stayers honest and stop it turning into a pure crawl
Punty read: This is a proper Cup-style grinder where the favourite is short but not untouchable, and the backmarkers have their chance if they handle the ride. Thebudgiesmugla is the class horse on paper, but he's short enough that you wouldn't want to be autographing your wallet. Black Run and Maison Louis are the ones who can be late and loud if the tempo is genuinely solid, while So You Are is the sneaky one who could make a mess of a lot of exotics if the race turns into a stamina test. Portland and Caboche can bob up if the race turns into a big, ugly, slow-burn affair.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Thebudgiesmugla (No.7) — $2.51 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.04
Prob 21.7% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.64x
Why The class horse, plain and simple - if he reproduces his good stuff, the rest of them are chasing shadows.
2. Black Run (No.6) — $6.45 / $2.05 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.20
Prob 13.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.04x
Why If they roll along at a genuine clip, he's the one who can keep grinding and land in the first three.
3. Maison Louis (No.2) — $7.10 / $2.10 🏆 8TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 13.7% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.15x
Why Had excuses last start and the extra trip suits - he can stay all day if they don't muck around up front.
Roughie: Sayedaty Sadaty (No.3) — $24.50 / $4.60 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.00x
Why Needs the fitter run and the better surface to really lob, but at the right tempo he can clatter into the placings.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but this looks like one of those races where half the field thinks it's their day
Punty read: Absolute chaos merchants' special. Bella Corazon has been hammered in the market and has the right profile to run well, but it's not a race where you'd put your house on anything. Swiftie Harriet has been smashed too, though the price now looks more like a hostage negotiation than a bet. Jellicious is the one that can make the frame if she gets a bit of luck from the gate, and La Basilique is the roughie with the big place profile if the race expands late. This is the kind of race where the replay can look like a badly edited action movie and the winner still feels random.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Bella Corazon (No.19) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$34.50
Prob 13.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why Hard fit enough to be around the mark and the market has shown plenty of love, but she'd want the right run from the middle of the pack.
2. Swiftie Harriet (No.9) — $5.55 / $2.15 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.87x
Why The money's been loud, but the price now screams "someone's got a plan" more than "jump on and hope".
3. Jellicious (No.2) — $12.50 / $3.50 🏆 6TH
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 8.7% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.29x
Why Strong enough from the right tempo, and if she gets a clean crack from barrier 12 she can fill a spot late.
Roughie: La Basilique (No.7) — $13.50 / $3.80 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why Back on a more honest setup, she can stay out of trouble and bulldoze into the finish when others are gasping.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Mawjood holding the key if he can translate the map into a clean lead or sit
Punty read: This is the quaddie anchor that makes you either look like a genius or a bloke who fell asleep in the last. Mawjood has the right shape, the right intent, and the right sort of form line to be the one they all fear; Seven's has been smashed into a very skinny price and he's hard to knock, but not a bet I want to be taking the grandkids' inheritance to; Emirate and Iceman are the sleepers if the race doesn't pan out the way the market expects. Pier Pressure is the roughie with the nice shape if you want a dart, but the main play is still Mawjood to keep it simple.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Mawjood (No.3) — $3.95 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — Cashed, net -$2.60
Prob 17.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.83x
Why He maps to make his own luck and the stable's got him in the right spot after a string of solid efforts.
2. Seven's (No.12) — $4.90 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.80x
Why The money's been ferocious and the stable's flying, but the price has been shaved right down to the bone.
3. Kapakiri (No.14) — $21.00 / $4.80 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.5% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.85x
Why Needs the race to melt in front of him, and even then he's probably more a place throb than a win bet.
Roughie: Emirate (No.10) — $10.25 / $2.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.36x
Why He's the sneaky one if the speed pressure turns ugly - can finish over the top if the leaders overdo the burn.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 4,7,3,20,11,13 / 5,8,4 / 6,11,8,2 / 2,7,3,6 (288 combos x $0.23 = $65.00) -- 23% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 5,7,8,1 / 7,6,2,4 / 19,9,2,7 / 3,12,10,16 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6 / 2 / 5 / 7 / 19 / 3 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Friendly Fire (Race 1, No.1)✗ — $1.71
2 - Smashing Time (Race 2, No.1)✓ Won — $2.21
3 - Nobler (Race 4, No.5)✓ Won — $3.30
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Rosehill's serving up a Soft 5 with a light tailwind up the straight, so it should be a proper tactical day - not a swamp, not a circus, just enough sting out of it to make the right map worth a couple of lengths. Get the position wrong and you're copping the Racing Gods' version of a wedgie.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Rosehill, 1000-2400m card
Rail: +3m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair-to-slightly on pace, with swoopers getting a late drag home)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 17C, humidity 86%, wind 7km/h NNW (watch for a bit of late sustain, not a brutal bias)
Early lane guess: Middle lanes in the straight look the sweet spot, with runners able to build down the outside if they get rolling early enough
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - a couple of genuine burn-ups, a few sit-and-sprint traps, and more than one race where the map will decide whether you're celebrating or eating humble pie
Jockeys to follow:
Sam Clipperton - keeps getting the right sort of ride in races where timing matters, and he looks well placed on the key speed-map horses.
Regan Bayliss - the sort of hoop who can make a half-length feel like a full one when the race turns tactical.
Dylan Gibbons - rides the sort of midfield/pressing runners that can cash in when the pace is genuine and the leaders go at each other.
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (11 runners) - a heap of live chances, plenty of market heat, and the stable's got its fingerprints all over the card.
Annabel & Rob Archibald (7 runners) - dangerous across sprints and staying tests, with a few runners who map to get every possible favours.
Nathan Doyle (4 runners) - not mucking around: a couple of proper chances, especially when the speed is on and the race opens up late.
Punty's take:
This is one of those Rosehill meetings where the paper form looks tidy, then the racing itself turns into a bit of a Thrones episode - a few obvious names, a few backstabbers, and a couple of roughies hiding in the shadows. The Soft 5 isn't dead glue, so the leaders aren't automatically toast, but that tailwind up the straight means the swoopers can keep climbing like the final lap of a Tour de France stage. That makes the maps at 1200m-1500m especially juicy.
The first thing that jumps off the page is the market leaning hard into the obvious ones - Friendly Fire, Smashing Time, Thebudgiesmugla, Mawjood - but there's enough wobble in the middle of the card to keep value hunters interested. Races 3, 6, 7, 9 and 10 are the sort of bloody brawls that can ruin a quaddie and pay for a weekend if you nail the right lane. Race 1 looks the cleanest story on the card, while the staying race in Race 8 is the classic "favourite isn't necessarily the best bet" setup.
The other big pattern is that market support and map advantage line up nicely in a few spots - that's when the punting gets fun. But when they don't line up, that's where you can nick a bit of value without trying to be a hero. No one wants to be the bloke whacking the shortie just because it's short. That's mug punting with a nice haircut.
What it means for you:
Treat the meeting like a split-card day. Bank the sensible anchors early, then get brave in the chaos races where the shape is open enough to let a roughie poke its nose through. You don't need to be everywhere - you need to be right in the races that matter. Race 1 is the kind of race you can keep simple. Race 2 and Race 4 reward discipline. Races 3, 6, 7 and 9 are where you protect yourself with the right coverage or you get spat out like a bad Meat Loaf sequel.
If you're building a card around value, the sweet spot looks to be horses that map well and still aren't being asked to jump through flaming hoops price-wise: Perfect Play, Xpresso, Without Parallel, Super Nui, Pier Pressure, and maybe a couple of the harder-luck runners that are being missed because the market has latched onto the shiny toy. If you're chasing a cleaner path, lean on the Big 3 and keep the sequences sensible. The day has enough traps in it without you inventing more.