For all of Punty's tips for Wanganui, head to https://punty.ai/tips/wanganui-2026-06-13

Rightio Loose Units, Wanganui's serving up a Soft 7 with the rail out 4m and a bit of morning muck in the air, which means the first bloke to find a rhythm and a decent lane is going to look like a genius and the rest can chase their tails like extras in Mad Max.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Wanganui, 1200-2060m card
Rail: Out 4m
Official going: Soft 7, expected to play fair-to-on-speed if the showers stay light
Weather: Morning fog, shower or two, 16C, humidity 86%, wind 14km/h SSW (watch for the ground getting a bit stingier if the rain keeps nibbling)
Early lane guess: Middle lanes with a slight nudge to those settling handy and not getting bailed up
Tempo profile: A mix of tactical crawls and genuine gung-ho affairs; the 1200m races look map-sensitive, while the middle-distance and staying races should sort the good punters from the mug punters
Jockeys to follow:
Kelly Myers - keeps landing on live chances all day and gets the kind of tactical rides that win these sort of cards.
Leah Hemi - a handful of on-speed runners and a few sneaky value mounts; if there's a map horse, she's often in the right spot.
Jonathan Riddell - plenty of plum rides across the card, and when the tempo is honest he can nurse them home like a bloke saving the last beer.
Stables to respect:
Andrew Forsman (2 runners) - Released and Mr Mojo Risin' are both set up to run cheeky races from good tactical maps.
Robbie Patterson (4 runners) - Capaci, Four Square Pete, Belles Boom and Roc All Night; the yard has enough bullets to land one.
Ms L Latta (8 runners) - deep team all through the meeting, with a couple of genuine map-and-fitness plays in the mix.

Punty's take: This meeting's got a bit of everything - baby races, maidens, a couple of nasty open handicaps and a proper staying slog to finish. On a Soft 7 with the rail out, I want horses that can park within striking distance and keep finding under pressure. The flashy backmarkers with terrible maps can kiss the ring if the pace turns into a sit-and-sprint and they get shoved out the back like an unlucky extra in The Dark Knight.

Race 1 is the baby sprint where manners matter more than swagger, and Race 2 and Race 3 look like the sort of maidens where a handy run and a clean jump can look like a superpower. Then the card hardens up around Race 5, Race 7 and Race 9 - that's where the chaos merchants come out, the market starts bluffing, and the bloke who reads the map properly gets the last laugh.

You'll see a few shorties getting shoved in the market, but this isn't the day to just hoover up favourites like a greedy seagull. The value sits with runners that can handle the sting out of the ground, settle in the first half of the field, and avoid getting bailed up when the tempo lifts. Keep your powder dry for the rougher races, and don't be scared to take place when the win price is a bit skinny and the race shape says "close enough but not bolted in".

What it means for you: Back the horses with tactical speed and a decent lane over the pure swoopers unless the race is going to fall in a hole up front. The maidens can be skinny place plays, the open handicaps can be a proper bar fight, and the staying races want patience - if you're chasing every roughie like it's The Wolf of Wall Street, you'll end up ringing the bagman for another top-up.

This is a day for disciplined staking, not hero ball. Lean into the runners with the map in their favour, use place where the win odds are a bit sneaky, and let the chaos races do the heavy lifting for exotics rather than trying to smash every race with one enormous all-up. If the track plays honest, you'll want horses that can roll along and keep trucking; if it chops up, the wide-drawn swoopers can get stuck in traffic and look like they forgot their lunch.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

1 - Released (Race 2, No.1) — $2.21
Why He controls his own destiny here - maps to be right there, has the fitness edge for the mile, and the stable knows how to have them ready when the money's on.
2 - Mr Mojo Risin' (Race 6, No.2) — $2.58
Why Good draw, maps to sit handy, and this is the sort of 1360m where a clean run from the inside can make him mighty hard to run down.
3 - Atavus (Race 9, No.1) — $2.33
Why The class horse in the last, and if he can land somewhere sensible from the gate, the others will have to find a way past him late.
Multi (all three to win): $10 x ~13.23 = ~$132.27 collect

Race 1 - Baby Snakes in the Soft

Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, tactical race, with Furston and Mr Chow settling midfield and the leaders not wanting to overcook it.
Punty read: This is a little 2yo stitch-up waiting to happen if you don't respect the map. Old Fashioned is the one the market has latched onto, but Furston gets the better of the two key map horses and has the excuse of interference last time. Sword Of Steel has the look of a filly/colt that can sit in the run and strike if the early crawl turns into a dash home.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Furston (No.1) — $4.00 / $2.00
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 18.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.86x
Why Had excuses last time, handles this trip, and from a midfield slot in a low-pressure race he gets every chance to put his hand up.
2. Sword Of Steel (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.70
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.00
Prob 26.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why Looks one of the better type runners in the field and the soft conditions won't hurt, but this is not the race to overcook the play.
3. Old Fashioned (No.3) — $2.45 / $1.37
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.11x
Why The market's had a sniff, but with a slow tempo and a couple of others holding better value, he's short enough for me to leave alone.
Roughie: Crime Of Passion (No.6) — $16.00 / $5.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.82x
Why Needs the race to fall in a hole, but if the front bunch scrambles the timing and he gets the last crack, he can clobber a few tired legs.

Race 2 - The Maiden Mixer

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Released should roll forward, with Popinjay and Shochita sitting in the slipstream and the backmarkers needing luck.
Punty read: This is a proper "put the map under your nose" maiden. Released looks the obvious one to beat because he can lead or box-seat and has the mileage to keep going, but Borrowed Time draws to save ground and Popinjay is the sneaky one if the race gets a bit messy up front. Shochita can also swoop into the frame if they overdo it early.

Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)

1. Released (No.1) — $2.21 / $1.25
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 24.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.96x
Why Gets his own way on speed and has the sort of map that lets the rider keep it simple in a maiden where plenty will want to overthink it.
2. Borrowed Time (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.55
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.85
Prob 19.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.67x
Why Barrier one is gold in these races - can save ground, stalk the speed, and be there when the leaders start gasping.
3. Popinjay (No.5) — $6.90 / $2.15
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 15.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.44x
Why Best run comes when the race is genuine and he can build into it late; if the speed is honest, he's the sort that keeps finding.
Roughie: Abeecee (No.10) — $19.50 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why Needs a fair bit to go wrong in front, but the roughie path is there if the leaders get into a brawl and he gets the last crack down the middle.

Race 3 - The 1600m Puzzle

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Offertory and Al Passo leading the charge and the likes of Shadow Ruler needing the tempo to be decent from the back.
Punty read: This one feels like a race where the smart rides matter. Offertory has the map edge as the likely leader, but he does have to negotiate barrier 9, so he can't be cocky. Fantabulous is the obvious danger from a better alley, and Shadow Ruler is the swooper who will be praying they don't turn it into a dawdle. Alliance is the one that can nick a bit of value if the race gets ugly and the leaders are cooked.

Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)

1. Offertory (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.80
Bet $17.00 Each Way ($8.50W + $8.50P) — Cashed, net -$1.70
Prob 18.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.75x
Why Honest enough, maps to roll forward, and if the rider gets him across cleanly he can pinch a cheap run near the speed.
2. Fantabulous (No.3) — $3.50 / $1.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.89x
Why Better gate, enough talent, and the sort of horse who can be right there if the race becomes a bit of a scrap rather than a procession.
3. Shadow Ruler (No.9) — $4.30 / $1.85
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.85
Prob 18.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.11x
Why Needs tempo and a decent tow into it, but if they string out early he'll be the one launching late like the final scene of Top Gun.
Roughie: Alliance (No.2) — $9.90 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.76x
Why Has the soft-track profile to bob up if the race gets messy and the fence helps him keep in touch.

Race 4 - Mile of Mayhem

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with no obvious tearaway, so the better-positioned midfield horses should get their shot.
Punty read: This is the sort of mile where you want a horse with some class and enough fitness to keep lifting. Capaci is the model's top horse and can sit in the first wave, Prince Of Diamonds is the one the market will keep trusting, and Platinum Sixty Six is the value play because he's got the right kind of track form to punch above the price. Cezanne is the blowout horse if the race turns into a grinder and the leaders go too hard.

Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)

1. Capaci (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.55
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$19.20
Prob 16.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.78x
Why Best of the map horses and the sort that can sit in the right part of the race without burning petrol early.
2. Prince Of Diamonds (No.2) — $3.10 / $1.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.72x
Why Honest type, but the price is a bit prickly and he's not the one I'm dying to jump on at the current number.
3. Platinum Sixty Six (No.1) — $8.40 / $2.90
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 12.0% | Place: 40.0% | Value: 1.46x
Why Loves the track, knows how to get into the finish, and if the pace is even he can run over a few of them late.
Roughie: Cezanne (No.8) — $13.50 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.94x
Why Wideish and can be left in the too-hard basket if he's posted early, but if the leaders overdo it he'll be the one storming home.

Race 5 - The Chaos Sprint

Race type: Open, 1360m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Came True trying to inject some speed and the on-pacers lining up like they want the front row at a rock concert.
Punty read: This is where the meeting gets lippy. Skattebo has the form and the right sort of edge at the trip, Midnight Train keeps rattling home from a handy gate, and Roc All Night is the short one the market will trust even though the map isn't exactly a love letter. The Dirty Dee is the roughie with the right sort of stalking pattern if the leaders burn each other out and turn the last bit into a lungbuster.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Skattebo (No.1) — $6.35 / $2.35
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 14.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.21x
Why Honest form, a workable draw, and enough tactical speed to sit in the right spot when the pressure starts coming.
2. Midnight Train (No.2) — $6.35 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why Keeps turning up, saves ground from the gate, and if the speed is hot he can sneak into the finish without needing a miracle.
3. Roc All Night (No.5) — $3.40 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.73x
Why Short enough and not as generous as the map would like; he needs a cosy run to justify the skinny quote.
Roughie: The Dirty Dee (No.10) — $10.75 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why If they string out and the on-speed crowd starts wheezing, he can be the late swooper that turns the race on its head.

Race 6 - The Open Handicap Meat Grinder

Race type: Open, 1360m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Mr Mojo Risin' on the bunny or just off it and a few others looking for cover.
Punty read: This is a proper "catch me if you can" map for Mr Mojo Risin'. He draws well, maps well, and the race shape gives him the chance to control the tempo. Urenui and Our Jumala can sit nearby, but the one they all have to run down is the leader if he gets a cheap first half. Belardo Boy is the honest grinder, while Turn The Ace is the query because he needs the race run to suit after a long spell.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Mr Mojo Risin' (No.2) — $2.58 / $1.50
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$23.70
Prob 26.5% | Place: 60.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why Perfectly drawn to take up a strong position and dictate without burning too much fuel.
2. Our Jumala (No.4) — $2.98 / $1.65
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 22.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.90x
Why Capable enough, but he's not the one I'd be forcing into the betting when the top pick has the map edge.
3. Belardo Boy (No.1) — $5.90 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why Keeps finding these types of races, but the weight and the shape mean he's more of a place-theory horse than a must-bet.
Roughie: Turn The Ace (No.3) — $9.30 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.18x
Why Needs a bit of race tempo and a decent second-half burn, but if the first pair go mad he can run over them late.

Race 7 - The 1200m Bar Fight

Race type: Benchmark 75, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Benerro and Cremant likely to lean on the front and a stack of others trying to land in the first wave.
Punty read: This is a race where the barriers matter and the drifters are waving red flags like they're extras in a disaster movie. Benerro gets the better map and is the one I want on top, Wire Rope has the sexy place profile and can hit the line hard, Bella Timing is the value horse with the right sort of upside, and Albarossa is the roughie if the wide pressure melts down and the finish becomes a scramble.

Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)

1. Benerro (No.6) — $7.30 / $2.75
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$3.75
Prob 13.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.90x
Why Maps to land in the first wave, has the fitness to keep going, and the track shouldn't blunt him if he gets control.
2. Wire Rope (No.1) — $7.85 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.27x
Why Honest old campaigner who can settle midfield and keep coming; if the speed is even he's right in the mix.
3. Bella Timing (No.3) — $8.85 / $3.10
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 8.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.15x
Why Better than her recent numbers suggest and the soft ground plus a decent stalking ride can see her punch through.
Roughie: Albarossa (No.4) — $9.30 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.44x
Why If the race gets messy and the leaders cut at each other, he can swoop in like he's late to the pub but still grabs the last seat.

Race 8 - The Staying Chess Match

Race type: Open, 2060m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Highly Lethal likely rolling along and the front end setting enough heat to test the finishers.
Punty read: This is a proper staying test where the rider's timing matters as much as the horse. Nigella Lane has the class but the price is short enough to make you blink, Khafre is the map horse with the right sort of soft-track profile, and Cheval De Foudre is the gritty one who can keep bobbing up. Kopua is the blowout if they string it out and the leaders are gasping at the top of the straight.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)

1. Nigella Lane (No.2) — $3.45 / $1.45
Bet $4.00 Each Way ($2.00W + $2.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 16.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.81x
Why Quality mare, but the short price means you're not exactly getting a gift; still, the map is kind enough to keep her in the hunt.
2. Cheval De Foudre (No.5) — $4.30 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why Capable of grinding through the trip and the soft ground won't frighten him if the race becomes a proper stamina slog.
3. Khafre (No.1) — $6.35 / $2.20
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 12.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why The map is his friend and the soft track doesn't look like a problem; if he gets an economical run he can hang tough right to the wire.
Roughie: Kopua (No.3) — $11.40 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.79x
Why Needs the pace to stay hot and the right ride, but if the leaders overcook it he can be the one storming home down the outside.

Race 9 - The Long Slog to the Line

Race type: Benchmark 65, 2060m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so this is a sit-and-sprint with the tactical jockeys doing the heavy lifting.
Punty read: Atavus has the class but the market's making you pay for it, and in a race like this the run position can trump raw talent. Unusual Cortez is the live danger if the rider gets him rolling at the right time, Dancing Fantail is the value runner who can improve sharply off a clean run, and Bold Bro is the one that needs the race to set up perfectly. Piper's Son is the roughie but he's more of a miracle map than a must-bet.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Atavus (No.1) — $2.33 / $1.57
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.91
Prob 15.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.65x
Why Best horse in the race on raw class and if he gets even a half-decent run from the gate, they'll be chasing his backside for a long way.
2. Unusual Cortez (No.4) — $6.85 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 1.33x
Why Maps to be close enough and is the sort that can take advantage if the race turns into a tactical poker game.
3. Bold Bro (No.5) — $4.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why Needs everything to go right and then some; from that setup he's more of a spoiler than a saviour.
Roughie: Piper's Son (No.3) — $27.50 / $6.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.4% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.50x
Why Needs a genuine tempo collapse and a fair slice of luck from the outer; that's a tough assignment at the mile and a bit.

SEQUENCE LANES - SINGLE OPTIMISED TICKET

EARLY QUADDIE (R2-R5)

Smart: 1,2,5,7 / 3,1,9,2 / 2,3,1,8 / 1,2,5,10 (256 combos x $0.16 = $40.50) -- 16% flexi
Two strong anchors in the first two legs, then the thing gets a bit spicy in R4 and R5 - proper punting, not a lottery ticket.

QUADDIE (R6-R9)

Smart: 2,4,1 / 6,1,4,3 / 2,5,1,3,7 / 1,4,5,2,7 (300 combos x $0.14 = $40.50) -- 14% flexi
R6 and R8 can do the heavy lifting, but R7 and R9 are the danger zones - if this lands, you'll earn every cent of it.

BIG 6 (R4-R9)

Smart: 3 / 1 / 2 / 6 / 2 / 1 (1 combos x $32.00 = $32.00) -- 3200% flexi
Tight, sensible, and built around the runners with the cleanest maps - still a proper grind, but at least it doesn't need a priest and a miracle.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - The fence still matters, but not in a stupid way
With the rail out 4m on a Soft 7, the horses saving ground from a decent alley get the sweet run. That's why the likes of Borrowed Time, Mr Mojo Risin', and Khafre are live - they can sit in the pocket and not burn petrol.

2 - The market is telling a story, but not every story ends well
Old Fashioned and Mr Chow have been crunched in Race 1, while a stack of runners in the maidens have been hemorrhaging money. The smart move is to separate genuine support from the "someone on Twitter said so" rubbish.

3 - The chaos races are where the dividend lives
Race 7 and Race 9 are the kind of handicaps that can make a quaddie pay if you survive them. If you want a lane to the collect, that's where the value roughies like Albarossa, Dancing Fantail, and Unusual Cortez are lurking.

FINAL WORD FROM THE DEGEN DEN

Don't get seduced by the shiny favourites if the map says they're in the wrong postcode. This is a day for patience, place plays, and punters with a functioning brain stem - pick your shots, keep the staking tidy, and let the race shape do some of the work. Gamble Responsibly.