For all of Punty's tips for Te Rapa, head to https://punty.ai/tips/te-rapa-2026-10-26

Rightio Ticket Munchers, Te Rapa is sitting on a Soft 5 with eight races from 1200m to 2400m, and the card is wide open on pace in places, so grab a coffee, pull up a stool and let's have a proper look at where the money should go.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Te Rapa, 1200m to 2400m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5
Weather: Overcast
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Races 1, 2, 3, 6 and 7 are rated Moderate or Slow Pace on the data. Races 4, 5 and 8 are Genuine Pace with a named leader in each. Race 6 has two leaders, When Stars Align and Rotten Tommy, so that one will be a pace fight.
Jockeys to follow:
Craig Grylls: Seven rides on the card, including Random Miss in Race 4, Avantaggia in Race 6 and Glance's rival Stella Ma Bella's stablemates in Race 8, so he's in the thick of the action all day.
George Rooke: Seven rides, including With Grace in Race 2, the pick at Te Rapa with a 23.1% combo strike rate with trainer Ms K A Hoskin.
Joe Doyle: Seven rides, including Smart Love in Race 1, the market leader, and Subiaco in Race 2, where Doyle is running hot on the 100-ride line.
Stables to respect:
S B Marsh (11 runners): The biggest operation on the card and the most dangerous spread. Glance, Erin Go Bragh and Circus Trix are all in the same yard in Races 7 and 8, so the stable is always going to have a horse in the finish.
L O'sullivan & A Scott (7 runners): Smart Love in Race 1 is the headline runner, and the stable has a few more to watch across the card.
Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson (7 runners): System Of Play in Race 5, Avantaggia and When Stars Align in Race 6, and Stella Ma Bella in Race 7 give this yard three genuine chances across the meeting.

Punty's take: Here's where the speed sits, and it's the thing that'll win you money or lose it. Race 4 has exactly one leader on the data, Random Miss, and the maiden field has seven runners with no jockey listed yet, so it's a bit of a shambles to read. Race 5 has Whistlejacket as the only leader, and the Open has a lot of backmarkers, which suits a horse like System Of Play who likes to sit back and pounce. Race 6 is the one I'd watch from the first bell: When Stars Align and Rotten Tommy will both want the lead, and the ON-PACE group behind them is crowded enough that somebody's going to get buried.

The short-priced favourites on the card are Smart Love in Race 1 at $2.20, System Of Play in Race 5 at $2.85 and Eliud in Race 3 at $2.60. Race 1 and Race 5 look like the banker races to me, while Race 4, Race 6, Race 7 and Race 8 are the chaos merchants. Race 8 has no runner above 15% on my numbers, so that's a race where I'd rather pick my spots than chase. Think of Te Rapa today like a Friday night at the RSL, plenty of noise and a few people who know exactly where they're going.

What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 1 with Smart Love, he's the strongest single bet on the card at a price that's still worth having. Protect yourself in Race 3 with Eliud, the one horse with a fastest early speed rank on the card, and let the slow pace work for him. Race 6 and Race 7 are where I'd be looking for each-way value, because the favourites there aren't overs and the pace is messy enough to give a bloke at $5.50 a sniff. Race 4 needs patience, the lead is shared with nobody and Random Miss is the only horse I'm putting real money on, so keep the stakes tidy. Stay consistent with the locked bets all day and you'll be fine.

Race 1 – Devan Plastics Hcp

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. No leader is named on the data for this race. ON-PACE: Leroy Brown, Sinhaman and Smart Love. MIDFIELD: Romanoff and Anton. BACKMARKER: Basel Warrior.
Punty read: **Smart Love (No.5) is the bet, $2.25 win at $2.20, and I'm comfortable backing a horse who's ON-PACE and has a Te Rapa record of 3:2-0-0 to go with a Soft record of 4:1-1-0. He's 253 days off, but his first-up record is 2:1-1-0 and his last start was a 6th at Matamata 1400m. Joe Doyle is running hot on the 100-ride line, which doesn't hurt. Romanoff at $3.30 is the danger if Smart Love gets rolled wide, a MIDFIELD runner who has won two from eleven and only dropped out of the top six once in his last three starts. Leroy Brown has a 4kg rise on his last start and comes off a 6th at Hastings, so he's one to watch if the pace is kind to him.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Smart Love (No.5) — $2.25 / $1.37
Bet $15.00 Win, return $33.75
Prob 38.6% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why He's the horse the market has right, ON-PACE with a clean Te Rapa record and a jockey running hot.
2. Romanoff (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Basel Warrior (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why A backmarker who drops 6kg from his last start, which is a legit reason to look at him if the pace turns into a sprint.

Roughie: Anton (No.6) — $12.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why He's been bumped, wide and slow away in his last three, so if the race sets up for a rush at the line he's the one to sneak in.

Race 2 – Baker Tilly Staples Rodway

Race type: Benchmark 75, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. No leader is named on the data for this race. ON-PACE: Enright. MIDFIELD: Monroe, With Grace and Subiaco. BACKMARKER: Keeper's Heart, In A Pickle and French Thinker.
Punty read: **With Grace (No.4) is the bet, $3.40 win at $3.40, and I like the way this one is set up. She's MIDFIELD on a Slow Pace, has won four from twenty on the record, and her Te Rapa form is strong with a Track record of 4:2-0-0. Last start she was a 1st at Te Rapa 2400m, and George Rooke and Ms K A Hoskin have combined for a 23.1% strike rate. She's up 2kg from her last start, so the weight isn't in her favour, but it's not going to stop a horse in this grade. French Thinker is the one to be wary of: BACKMARKER, a 3rd at Hastings 1600m last start and a Soft record of 4:0-0-3, so he's going to need a very slow early pace to get into the race. Subiaco is the strong each-way type if the market gets the pace wrong.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.92 pool)

1. With Grace (No.4) — $3.40 / place tote
Bet $10.92 Win, return $37.13
Prob 24.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Fresh enough off a win at Te Rapa, a mid-field runner in a slow race and the trainer and jockey combo has done the business.
2. French Thinker (No.7) — $3.30 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.8% | Place: 41.4% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Subiaco (No.6) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 33.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Three excuse-laden runs, including interference at Hastings 2000m, so the form is better than the finish suggests.

Roughie: In A Pickle (No.5) — $9.50 / $3.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why A backmarker who was bumped and hampered at Te Rapa 2400m last start, and he's won at Te Rapa 2400m before, so if the front runners stop he's the one to pick up the pieces.

Race 3 – Farewell Damon Anaki - 28 Years Of Hard Graft

Race type: Benchmark 65, 2400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. ON-PACE: Eliud and Faultless. MIDFIELD: Rosina. BACKMARKER: Wry Smile, Satomi, Boogaloo, Choreomania, Slick Chick and Diva Kingdom.
Punty read: **Eliud (No.1) is the bet, $2.60 win at $2.60. He's ON-PACE and carries the fastest early speed rank on the card, has run 2nd at Hastings 2200m and 2nd at Hastings 2100m in his last two, and the sectionals have him fastest for the last 400m and the time. He's up 2kg on his last start, so that's a small concern at this trip, but a slow pace over 2400m is the sort of race that suits a horse who can get to the front and sit there. The danger is Choreomania, a backmarker who won at Tauranga 2100m last start and will love a race that's going to be run at a crawl if somebody else sets it up. Faultless is the ON-PACE rival who could make it a real fight if he gets a free run.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Eliud (No.1) — $2.60 / $1.25
Bet $7.50 Win, return $19.50
Prob 27.6% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why The pace is his and his last two runs have been seconds at Hastings, so he's the one to trust at the trip.
2. Faultless (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Choreomania (No.7) — $5.00 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why He won at Tauranga 2100m last start and has a 12.1% combo strike rate with Craig Grylls, so the form is there.

Roughie: Satomi (No.3) — $9.50 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker with a 1-4 record at the distance, and he was bumped and hampered at Te Rapa 2100m, so the trip could suit if the speed holds up.

Race 4 – IMAP Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, with Random Miss the named leader. LEADER: Random Miss. ON-PACE: Clara Bow, Bellafiore, Literacy and Zippidy. MIDFIELD: Chaplin, Red Wings, Osipova, Off The Scales, Rhaena, Bandit Queen and Big Bold Bob. BACKMARKER: Universal Patch, Malikia and Brut. UNKNOWN: Italian Connection, Camerlengo, Johnny Ripper and Khatun.
Punty read: **Random Miss (No.8) is the bet, $5.00 win at $5.00. She's the only LEADER in the field and that's enough for me in a maiden where a lot of these have no career starts. Her Soft record is 2:0-0-1, she was a 4th at Pukekohe Park 1400m last start, and the data flags interference in that run, so there's a legit excuse there. Jockey Craig Grylls is in the thick of it all day with a 12.6% strike rate at Te Rapa. The danger is Off The Scales, who was a 2nd at Cambridge Synthetic 1300m last start and has a Dist record of 3:0-2-1, and I'd rather watch him than back him at $8.50. Johnny Ripper has shortened from $15.00 to $10.00 on a HEAVY market move, but he has no career starts on the data, so I'm not going near him beyond a watch.

Top 3 + Roughie ($6.00 pool)

1. Random Miss (No.8) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet $6.00 Win, return $30.00
Prob 16.4% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why She's the only leader in a maiden and I like her ability to set the tempo, with the form line backed by a jockey and trainer combo doing the business.
2. Off The Scales (No.11) — $8.50 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.05x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Bellafiore (No.10) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.54x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE with a 1st-up record of 1:0-0-0 and a 12.7% track strike rate for George Rooke, so he's live if the leader slows.

Roughie: Johnny Ripper (No.6) — $11.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.5% | Place: 21.6% | Value: 0.60x Steady since tip
Why He's a horse with no career starts on the record but the market is moving him in, and if the speed collapses he's the sort of unknown that can blow up the exotics.

Race 5 – James & Annie Sarten Memorial

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, with Whistlejacket the named leader. LEADER: Whistlejacket. ON-PACE: Justin Case and Lassified. MIDFIELD: Incandescent, Spellbound and Shambo Jack. BACKMARKER: System Of Play, Raymond, Rip Tide, Coniston, Angels Halo and Joyeuse.
Punty read: **System Of Play (No.2) is the bet, $2.85 win at $2.85. He's a backmarker in a race with a genuine pace, which is exactly where you want a horse like him. He's two from two on the record, won at Ellerslie 1400m last start and has a Soft record of 2:2-0-0. Michael Mc Nab is running hot at 28.0% on the 100-ride line and the pair have a combo strike rate of 23.6%. The danger is Justin Case, ON-PACE and unbeaten in his last two at Hastings, plus Good 2:0-1-0 which isn't the same as Soft, so I'm not confident he gets the ground. Whistlejacket in the lead is at $41.00, and he is a pure speed horse who'll set the early tempo if nobody else wants it. Angels Halo is the roughie to watch.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. System Of Play (No.2) — $2.85 / $1.45
Bet $15.00 Win, return $42.75
Prob 29.0% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why A backmarker in a genuine pace race with a two from two record, and the jockey and horse have been firing.
2. Justin Case (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Incandescent (No.3) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD with a 3rd at Hastings 1400m last start and a jockey and trainer combo at 18.9%, so he's a real hitter if the race is run at a sprint.

Roughie: Angels Halo (No.11) — $14.00 / $3.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.16x Steady since tip
Why A backmarker who was held up at Hastings 1400m last start, and with the 37.5% combo strike rate with Masahiro Hashizume and Hollie Elliot, if the pace is fast enough he could get through the field late.

Race 6 – Design Group Stapleton Elliot Architects

Race type: Benchmark 75, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, with two leaders. LEADER: When Stars Align and Rotten Tommy. ON-PACE: Magice, To Cap It All, Avantaggia, Fancypants, Midnight Train, Bona Sforza, Hey Hey Baby, Le Jacques Cartier, O'sweet Darling and Pogacar. MIDFIELD: Zivou and Ballbeena. BACKMARKER: Finest Hour.
Punty read: **Avantaggia (No.4) is the bet, $3.50 win at $3.30. ON-PACE, Soft 6:3-1-0 and Dist 5:2-1-1, with a 2nd at Matamata 1200m last start and a 1st at Ellerslie 1200m before that. Craig Grylls and the stable of Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson are a 19.4% combo, so he's the most consistent horse in this race. The danger is Magice, ON-PACE with a 1st at Matamata 1200m last start, a 3-2-1 record and a Soft record of 6:2-2-1. Two leaders with pressure on the front will be right in Magice's face, and if the race is a bit of a bloodbath, he's the one to come through. When Stars Align is the other leader and is at $9.50, so he's a horse to watch if the pace is strong. Zivou is the roughie, MIDFIELD with the Soft form to suit.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Avantaggia (No.4) — $3.50 / $1.57
Bet $10.50 Win, return $36.75
Prob 18.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE on a soft track and the form line is consistent, with the jockey and trainer combo to match.
2. Magice (No.1) — $8.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. When Stars Align (No.3) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why A genuine leader with a 2-1-1 first-up record and the 26.1% combo with Opie Bosson, so he's dangerous if the race doesn't go mad up front.

Roughie: Zivou (No.17) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD with a Soft record of 6:2-1-0, and he was held up and slow away at Cambridge Synthetic 970m last start, so if the front pair go hard he can run on late.

Race 7 – NZB Ready To Run Trainers Series

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, no leader named on the data for this race. ON-PACE: Oban, Track Tester, Wise Choice, One More Dance and Stella Ma Bella. MIDFIELD: Glance, Diplomatic, Now Not Never, Our Lurrina, Trafalgar and King Of The Air. BACKMARKER: Alacritous.
Punty read: **Glance (No.4) is the bet, $5.50 each way at $5.50. He's MIDFIELD in a Moderate Pace race, has a 1st-up record of 1:1-0-0 and won at Pukekohe Park 1400m in his last win on the extended form. Jack Taplin has a 15.0% L100 strike rate on the card and the stable of S B Marsh has the numbers. He's up 4kg from his last start, which is a worry, but the each-way bet covers the place if he lands in the money. Stella Ma Bella at $3.90 is the danger, ON-PACE with a J-HOT 28.0% rating and Michael Mc Nab in the saddle, and she's a better horse than her last run suggests. Diplomatic has shortened from $10.00 to $6.00 on a HEAVY market, which tells me somebody knows something, so he's worth a look.

Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)

1. Glance (No.4) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet $6.50 Each Way ($3.25W + $3.25P), collects $24.87 if it wins ($17.88 win + $6.99 place), $6.99 if it only places
Prob 15.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD in a race that's not going to be sprinted and the each-way gives you cover if he's a good placer.
2. Stella Ma Bella (No.11) — $3.90 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Wise Choice (No.3) — $8.50 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE, 1st-up record of 1:0-0-1 and the Track record of 2:1-1-0 at Te Rapa.

Roughie: One More Dance (No.7) — $10.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE with a Track record of 4:2-0-0 and a jockey in Hayley Hassman who gets a bit of luck in this type of race, so he's a live each-way chance.

Race 8 – SGL

Race type: Benchmark 75, 1500m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, with Erin Go Bragh the named leader. LEADER: Erin Go Bragh. ON-PACE: Gillian, Ortem Legacy, El Arish, Sweetazme, Cotton Roca, Vickezzlastcall and Whats The One Code. MIDFIELD: Bella's Boy, Zantabulous, Tajana, Flanagan, Circus Trix, Sperlari, Uptown and Paddy The Farmer.
Punty read: **Tajana (No.7) is the bet, $5.50 win at $5.50. MIDFIELD in a race with a genuine pace, he's a 3rd at Ellerslie 1300m last start and has a Soft record of 8:3-1-1. Michael Mc Nab is running hot at 28.0% on the 100-ride line and that's a decent pair to back. Last start he was a 13th at Hastings 1400m, and the data says he was held up, so that's a legit excuse. Bella's Boy at $8.50 is the danger, a MIDFIELD horse who was a 2nd at Matamata 1600m and has a value flag on the market. Erin Go Bragh is the one leader in the race and the danger if the pace falls apart. The bloke at $26.00 is Ortem Legacy, who has firmed from $29.00 to $26.00 on a HEAVY market.

Top 3 + Roughie ($5.00 pool)

1. Tajana (No.7) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet $5.00 Win, return $27.50
Prob 13.9% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why The best Soft record on the card and the jockey in form, with a held-up excuse behind the bad run.
2. Bella's Boy (No.4) — $8.50 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Circus Trix (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why A 2nd at Te Rapa 1400m last start, with a combo strike rate of 16.3% with Matthew Cartwright.

Roughie: Uptown (No.15) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why A Te Rapa winner at 1600m last start with a Track record of 1:1-0-0, so if the favourite gets in trouble he's got a path.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Market move in the maiden
Diplomatic has shortened from $10.00 to $6.00 on a HEAVY market in Race 7, and his most recent start was a 1st at Hawera 1200m on the extended form. Somebody's backing him, so I'd keep an eye on that one.
2 - Johnny Ripper's shortening
Johnny Ripper has moved from $15.00 to $10.00 in Race 4 on a HEAVY market, but he has no career starts on the record. I can't see a form reason for it, so I'm treating it as a watch only.
3 - The jockey blank in the maiden
Seven runners in the Race 4 maiden have no jockey on the card yet, so check the late mail before you lock in anything in that race.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Te Rapa is a soft, speedy, slightly chaotic meeting, which is exactly the type of day that keeps us honest. Back the bankers, sweat the chaos races and never chase a loss. Stay sharp out there, you Ticket Munchers.