2026 Melbourne Cup Preview: Punty's Runner-by-Runner, Odds & Model

Sons And Lovers comes from Joseph O'Brien's Irish string with a good record on the Good track, 2 wins from 10 starts, but only 1 start at the distance, so the trip is a question. His last run was a second at Leopardstown in Group 3 company, and before that he won a Group 2 at Longchamp over 2800m, so the stamina is plausible. We can't say where he'll settle in this field, because overseas form gives us no settling position. Winkers and equicast first time is a gear change we can't read. We make him 4.8%, a fair price of $20.70 against $21.00, an edge of +1.4%. A rough chance with some upside.

Trustyourinstinct has the strongest overseas record in the field, 9 wins from 25 starts, and he won a Curragh Group 2 over 2816m before finishing fourth in a Group 1 there. The market likes him, with a market price of $8.80 and an implied 11.0%. We make him just 4.2%, fair $23.98, so the edge is -63.3%, which is the worst of any runner in the race. He's drawn barrier 18, the map is unclear, and he drops 4.5kg in weight from his recent runs. Good horse. We think the price has already done the work for him.

Knight's Choice won this race last year and is back at long odds. The problem is the form since. His last four starts have been a 14th in the Caulfield Cup (excused by a slow start and the track), a third in a Group 2, a ninth and a twelfth. He's drawn barrier 2, settles back, and carries 56.5kg. Anything can happen in a 24-horse field, and he has shown that at this track and trip. We make him 1.4%, fair $71.94, against $60.00, and call that fair.

Middle Earth drew barrier 1 and Mark Zahra, who rode back-to-back winners, but the recent runs are poor: eighth, ninth, eighth, seventh and eighth, all in Group 1 company, with some excuses for slow starts and interference. He's run twice at Flemington, in a Group 1 over 2040m and 2000m, and never at 3200m. We make him 5.4%, fair $18.66, and the market is $16.50, an edge of -11.6%. That's overpriced slightly, and we'd rather be elsewhere.

Vauban is a Waterhouse and Bott runner who is drawn the widest of the midfield group, in barrier 22. He has a good soft-track record, 6 wins from 14 starts, and a distance record of 2 wins from 8. His last run was a ninth in a Geelong Group 3, bumped and crowded, and he's run in the Cup before. We make him 1.6%, fair $62.50, against $85.00, an edge of +36.0%. That's a big gap, but it's a big price on a horse needing everything, and the draw and form are the reasons.

Enfjaar led or raced near the lead when third in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m, a run that gets him in here on form. He won a Goodwood Group 3 in August, and he's drawn barrier 8, which gives him a reasonable run to the front. The trouble is the contest for the lead, which our map says hurts him most, along with the other leaders. We make him 5.0%, fair $20.16, market $26.00, an edge of +29.0%. Overs on paper, but he needs a soft lead to beat the other four.

Royal Supremacy won a Group 3 at Caulfield over 2000m, but followed up with a 15th in the Caulfield Cup beaten more than 17 lengths. Drawn barrier 21, he has to cross the field from a wide gate to find the front, and he has never raced beyond 2400m. We make him 1.1%, fair $86.96, and the market is $90.00. It's a tidy match and a hard task.

Wine Dark Sea is in barrier 23 and maps to lead, which makes the job harder, especially with four other leaders in the race. He won a Newbury Group 3 over 2671m in August, so he handles a stayer's trip, but he was 11th in the Caulfield Cup after being wide early. First-time concussion plates and equicast are a gear change we can't read. We make him 2.0%, fair $49.50, market $60.00, an edge of +21.2%. Exotics only for us.

Asterix is one of Chris Waller's 2 runners, and his Caulfield Cup 12th came after a slow start and a bump at the 300m. He's drawn barrier 6, which is useful for a backmarker, but his form is mixed and he hasn't won at this level. We make him 0.9%, fair $106.38, and the market is $95.00, an edge of -10.7%. Too big a task for us.

Goodie Two Shoes is our roughie, and he has the best Cup form of anything near the bottom of the market. He ran second in this race last year in a field of 24 from barrier 20 carrying just 51.5kg, beaten 2.8 lengths. Since then he's won a Goodwood Group 2 and been placed at Fairyhouse. He ran 10th at Leopardstown most recently, 51 days ago, and now carries 55kg, but the weight analysis suggests he runs best when heavier. Drawn barrier 19, he'll have to work to get across with the leaders, and our map says that hurts. We make him 4.5%, fair $22.17, against $30.00, an edge of +35.3%, and we'd call him value at $25.50 or better. A rough chance with an honest history.

Juja Kibo is our third-ranked runner, and he comes in off two wins in a row: a Randwick Group 2 over 2400m and a Flemington Group 2 over 2500m, beaten only at the 2000m mark by a narrow margin. He settles midfield, which suits a genuine tempo, and he's drawn barrier 14. Our numbers rate him at 8.5%, fair $11.72, against a market price of $12.50. That's an edge of +6.7%, which is thin. It's a real chance at a fair price, and the tips card has no bet on him. Our fair price is $11.72, and we'd want $13.50 to get interested.

Hopewell Rock is an English handicapper who has won at Goodwood over 2816m and was second at York in a 22-horse field over 2786m, so he's been tested in big fields at the trip. Ear muffs are a first-time gear change, and he's been out 72 days, the longest gap of any runner. The market is on him, $10.50 against our $21.32, and our edge is -50.8%. We make him 4.7%. That's a lot of price paid for a horse with an unclear map.

Onesmoothoperator is a seasoned stayer with 51 starts, but he's been slow away in his recent runs and finished 11th, 9th and 13th in his last three. Blinkers first time are a change that might help, but the form is a long way off. We make him 0.8%, fair $131.58, market $130.00. Fair price, poor chance.

Soul Of Spain has a lot of excuses in recent runs: held up and interference in the Caulfield Cup, bumped at Randwick, wide and bumped before that. He's drawn barrier 5 and he settles at the back, so he'll need a genuine tempo. He's a Waller runner, one of 2, and we'd class him as an exotics chance. We make him 2.7%, fair $37.45, market $36.00.

Zahrann won a Caulfield Group 3 over 2000m and then ran sixth in the Caulfield Cup, held up near the 300m. His good-track record is strong, 4 wins from 7, and he's drawn barrier 11. Blinkers first time is a risk, but he's a Maher runner with a good profile. We make him 3.3%, fair $29.94, market $32.00, an edge of +6.9%. Exotics.

So You Are is our fourth-ranked runner, and he comes in with four wins in a row, the latest in a Bendigo Group 3 over 2400m just five days ago. He's on pace, drawn barrier 7, and he's proven at 58kg. He now carries 54kg, and the form is strong, though against weaker company than this. A five-day backup in a Cup is a big ask. We make him 6.8%, fair $14.73, against $18.00, an edge of +22.2%. The tips card has no bet on him, and the short back-up is the main reason.

Future History has run 47 times, and his Flemington record is decent, 2 wins from 8. He was wide throughout when ninth in a Group 2 over 2500m last start, and the weight analysis warns he has not won at 56kg or above in 7 starts. He's drawn barrier 12 and he's on pace with a contested lead. We make him 1.3%, fair $79.37, market $95.00.

James J Braddock is drawn the widest of all in barrier 24, and has had just 7 career starts. He was third in the Epsom Derby and sixth in the Irish Derby, a stronger background than most. Craig Williams, who won the Cup in 2019, takes the ride. Ear muffs are a first-time gear change. The map is unclear. We make him 4.7%, fair $21.19, market $20.00, an edge of -5.6%. An unknown, and that's fine.

Kizlyar won an Ascot Handicap over about 4000m, so stamina is not his question. His last run was an 11th at Flemington over 2500m, and he's drawn barrier 20 with a lead to chase. Winkers first time is a change we can't read. We make him 2.2%, fair $46.30, market $46.00.

Point Of Law is our most likely winner. We make him 14.9%, a fair price of $6.71, against a market of $7.60. That's an edge of +13.3%, and we'd call him value at $7.80 or better. He's won 3 of his 5 starts (n=5, so a small sample), all on good tracks, and he comes in off a Geelong Group 3 win over 2400m 12 days ago in which he was keen. Barrier 9 is a decent draw for a leader, and 53kg is a useful weight. The questions are real. He has never run 3200m, he's a leader in a race with five of them, the gear change (lugging bit off, standard bit on) is another unknown, and the history says no winner has started this short. The most likely winner can still be a poor bet. We think he's a fair one.

Strictly Business has been slow away in recent runs and finished last at Flemington in a Group 2 over 2500m, beaten 14 lengths. He's drawn barrier 4 and carries 53kg, but the form is a long way off. We make him 0.9%, fair $117.65, market $130.00, an edge of +10.5%. It's a big price for a horse who needs a lot to go right.

Mr Monaco was third at Flemington in a Group 2 over 2500m last start, beaten 0.8 of a length, after winning a Group 3 over 2520m. He carries only 52.5kg, which fits the light-weight pattern, and he's drawn barrier 16. We make him 3.5%, fair $28.74, against $27.00, an edge of -6.1%. A fair exotics chance.

Zakouma won the Flemington Listed over 2800m in May, which is his best trip form, but his last start was an 11th in a 1600m Group 2, slow away. He carries 52kg and drew barrier 10. We make him 2.0%, fair $49.26, against $34.00, an edge of -31.0%, so the market likes him more than we do.

Shockletz is our best value and our danger. We make him 12.9%, fair $7.76, against a market price of $11.50, an edge of +48.2%, and we'd call him value at $9.00 or better. He carries 51kg, a seven-kilo drop from earlier runs, and the weight is a real asset over 3200m. He was second at Flemington last start over 2040m, beaten 0.5 of a length, and he won a Flemington Group 3 over 2500m in September. He settles near the back and has to find cover from barrier 17, which is the risk. A genuine tempo suits him, and our map expects one with five leaders. He's a Maher runner, one of 7. A value runner isn't a likely winner, and he's still more likely to lose than win.