2026 Sword Of State Preview: Punty's Runner-by-Runner, Odds & Model

Leroy Brown is the top weight, and the form is half good and half baffling. He won at Te Rapa over 1400m last start, then runs a week later, which is a quick turnaround for a horse carrying 61kg. Before that he was 15th of 15 in a Hastings Group 3 at a huge price, so the ceiling and the floor are both on the page. He has been beaten as far as 12 lengths and has also won, and that spread is why we make him 10.1% and not more. Barrier 7 isn't a problem for an on-pacer, but he wants to lead and so do four others. All of his wins have come under lighter weights than he gets today (10 runs in the lighter band, none heavier), so this is uncharted territory. A real chance, with an asterisk about the 61kg.

Cannon Hill was second to Sweet Smile over the same course and distance on 17 October, beaten a short margin after settling well back from a wide gate. The trouble is the kilos. She carries 60.5kg, a 3.5kg rise from that run, which wipes out the margin that Sweet Smile had on her and then some. She has a win over 1500m here (2 starts at the trip, 1 win), and her soft record is solid (15 starts, 3 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds), so there's no doubting the ground. Barrier 10 and a habit of settling back means she'll be covering ground again unless the tempo gets hot. We make her 11.5%, rank 3, and she is a genuine chance who gets squeezed by weight and gate.

Queen Zou is the other S B Marsh runner. She is a proven winner on soft ground (15 starts, 4 wins) and won a Group 2 over 1600m on New Year's Day at Ellerslie, carrying 53kg. The recent form has been poor, with a 12th last start held up in the straight and a 16th in a Group 1. She carries 58kg today, which is 5kg more than that Group 2 win, and the weight analysis says she is better lighter. We make her 6.7%. She has class on the CV and it hasn't shown up lately.

Sweet Smile won this track and trip last start on a Soft 5, three wide from barrier 11, so the form was no soft run. She is 4 wins from 6 starts on the soft and 4 from 5 at Ellerslie, which is the most track-specific record in the field. Barrier 1 means she doesn't have to do the work she did last time. The question is the handicapper, who has put 3kg on her, taking her from 54kg to 57kg. That is a real jump, though her record at 57 to 58kg is 2 wins from 2 starts, so the horse has done it before. Her September run at Te Rapa over 1200m (8th, tactics queried) is the one blemish, and a different distance on a different track. We make her 15.2%, fair $6.56, and she is the danger to Checkmate. Her price matters more than her form: $7.60 is where we start to care.

Checkmate gets the nod because the map, the weight and the trip all point the same way. He has 2 wins from 3 starts at 1500m and a midfield spot behind a contested speed, which is the best seat in a race with no obvious leader. His Hastings Group 3 run (10th of 15, held up and bumped near the 400m) is easy to forgive when you read the comments. A February run at Matamata and a run at Ellerslie in January also had him held up, so the same story keeps appearing. That is either bad luck or a horse who gets short of room, and we can't separate the two from here. He is up 3kg from his last start, and the weight breakdown suggests he does better lighter, with no wins at 58kg, though 56kg is still modest. We make him 19.8%, fair $5.05, and the price we'd want is $5.90. He was a good chance last time too, and the Group 3 result looked nothing like it.

Kiwi Skyhawk is one of two runners for trainer S B Marsh, alongside No.4 Queen Zou. He is a stayer by record (his best runs have come at 2100m to 2400m), and this 1500m is a drop in distance that he hasn't done much of. Last start over 1400m he was fifth, held up in the straight. He gets a nicer weight at 55.5kg compared with 52kg last time, though that is a 3.5kg rise. Barrier 3 and an on-pace map give him a path to the front. Our rank is 5 and we make him 9.8%. He's a horse who likes a longer trip, and that is the concern.

Whiskey 'n Roses was fourth on 17 October over this trip after leading early, and has been in the first four in three of her last four runs at Ellerslie and Matamata. She has no trouble with the wet (3 wins from 4 starts on a heavy track), though her soft record is thinner. She is a solid runner without a recent win, and we make her 6.0%. A place chance more than a winning one.

Big Wave was third on 17 October, beaten a short margin, and gets a weight rise of just 1kg, which is the lightest increase among the beaten runners. The problem is barrier 11 for a horse who wants to be on the speed. He'll need to cross or settle further back than he likes. We make him 5.1% and rank him 9.

El Viento is better on good ground than soft by record (11 starts, 3 wins on good against 7 starts, 1 win on soft), so the Soft 5 isn't ideal. He was slowly away last start over 1400m, finishing ninth, and slow starts keep showing up in his form. He gets 55kg and a midfield position, so he's no hopeless case, and he has strong second-up numbers if you wanted to take that on trust. We make him 7.6%, rank 6, and he sits below the main chances.

Lachie is the only back-marker and has drawn the widest gate, which is a hard combination. She was held up when sixth last start from barrier 12. She needs a genuine tempo and some luck, and we make her 3.2%. Exotics fodder.

Mollify has the inside barrier she wants and gets to the front without a fuss, but the recent form has been ordinary (10th last start, held up). She has won 3 times from 8 starts on soft ground, which is a nice record in isolation. We make her 3.2%. She likes the wet, and the bigger problem is the quality.

Gillian is first-up after 191 days, drawn wide, with a form line full of 2000m and 2400m runs. She needs everything to go right, and we make her 1.8%. No dig at her at all: this is a big ask from a long way back.