Ellerslie Ascot Doomben Fannie Bay Flemington Geraldton Gold Coast Poly Kembla Grange Morphettville Muswellbrook Randwick Wingatui

Tuesday, 03 November 2026

Track Soft 5

Weather Overcast

Punty at Ellerslie

21.2% strike rate

96/452 winners

-24.9% ROI

across 13 meetings

Punty's Early Mail

For all of Punty's tips for Ellerslie, head to https://punty.ai/tips/ellerslie-2026-11-03

Rightio Degenerates, Ellerslie is off a Soft 5 under overcast skies with a 55%+ rain chance ticking over all day, so the track will be heavy-going and the speed will be hard to hold. Ten races, a few decent maidens, a 2400m staying test in Race 4, and only two bets on the card for me. Grab a coffee, pull up a stool, and let's get into it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Ellerslie, 1100m to 2400m card
Rail: True in the data, no position given
Official going: Soft 5
Weather: Overcast, live gusts 9.3km/h, rain risk 55%+ at 08:00, 11:00, 14:00 and 17:00
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Moderate pace in Races 1 to 4 and 7 to 10, Genuine pace in Races 5 and 6
Jockeys to follow:
Michael Mc Nab: 9 rides, including Hervey Bay in Race 2 and Admiral Vos in Race 1, with 15.7% at this track (923/5877)
Joe Doyle: 9 rides, including Rising Wind in Race 1 and Golden Wings in Race 10, with 9.5% at this track (267/2814)
Warren Kennedy: 10 rides, the biggest book on the day, including Sweet Ice in Race 4 and Mollify in Race 7
Stables to respect:
S B Marsh (10 runners): the biggest operation on the card, with Perfect Chaos in Race 1 and Navy Dreams in Race 6, and 12.2% at this track (1023/8416)
A W Pike (6 runners): Liechtenstein and Admiral Vos in Race 1, Hervey Bay in Race 2, and 15.3% at this track (667/4359)
C W Cole (4 runners): Palladium in Race 1 is 1 win from 1 start on soft, and the Woodville 1200m win on 2026-10-07 is the only form in the book

Punty's take: Ellerslie has put the speed on the back foot for most of this card. Eight of the ten races are rated Moderate on paper, which means nobody is going to run away with it and the smart money sits closer than the front. The only real pace comes in Race 5 and Race 6, where Texas Cowboy and Toruk Makto each have the lead to themselves on the map. That's a shape where the leader gets a sit and the sit-behind runners can nick it, so keep an eye on those two.

Race 1 is the one I'm most interested in. Perfect Chaos is the $2.50 favourite and the bet, and he's had a day in the sun before. He's got the best overall record in the field, but he's yet to win on soft from five starts, which is the question nobody on this card can answer for sure. Race 2 is the other staked race. Hervey Bay has placed in each of his last three starts and sits handy from barrier 7, which is the kind of run that lets a punter sleep. Race 7 is the mess. Five runners have the pace to find the front, and that is a scramble waiting to happen.

What it means for you: Two bets, and both are about backing the horse with the best run into the finish, not the flash names. Put your money on Perfect Chaos in Race 1 and Hervey Bay in Race 2, and treat everything else as a watch list. Races 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are the ones I'd leave alone for now with no selections in them, while Races 5 and 6 are where the leader is clear and you can watch how the chasers hold up. Protect your bankroll on the heavy-going races, where a horse with zero soft wins is a big question mark. Don't chase the roughies on a whim, go for them only where the path is clear.

Race 1 – Yourride

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper, but Liechtenstein and Palladium both want the front. Liechtenstein has to come from barrier 9 to get there, which gives Palladium from barrier 7 the first run at the lead. That hands Perfect Chaos a sit from barrier 6 just behind them. Pollyisacracker from the back needs the leaders to come back to the field.
Punty read: Perfect Chaos is the bet, and I'm putting $15 on him to win. He's the $2.50 favourite and the form is 2223154, with a 4th at Ellerslie last start after a slow start. Zero wins from five on soft is a real question, but a sit handy from barrier 6 in a race with two leaders fighting over the front is the best sort of set-up for him. Palladium is the danger with the lead, Admiral Vos has won at Tauranga last start, and Liechtenstein has a warning on the weight record with 1 win from 7 at 54-55kg. Pollyisacracker has been bumped or hampered in all three of his last-start excuses, so there's a story if the race opens up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Perfect Chaos (No.1) — $2.60 / $1.22
Bet $15.00 Win, return $39.00
Prob 34.8% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 6, 9kg up on last start and best at lighter weights, but the best form in the field and the most likely to run into the money. Abinith Simon is 2 from 39 at this track, which is ugly, but the horse is the one to beat.
2. Palladium (No.7) — $4.60 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Admiral Vos (No.6) — $4.00 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.54x ▲5% since tip
Why Won at Tauranga 1200m last start and has Michael Mc Nab on board, who is 15.7% at this track. Sits handy from barrier 8, a good chance to be in the finish.

Roughie: Rising Wind (No.2) — $13.00 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.88x ▼9% since tip
Why Two wins from seven on soft, last start second at Pukekohe Park 1200m, and 3kg up on his last start. If the leaders go hard and the handy runners tire, he's the price-crusher that gets into the finish.

Race 2 – Speight's Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with two leaders on the map in Be Water and Adoration. Be Water has to cross from barrier 13 to get to the front, which gives Adoration from barrier 5 an early look. Hervey Bay from barrier 7 gets a handy sit just off the speed, and the back-half runners have to get cover or luck to get into it.
Punty read: Hervey Bay is the bet, and I'm putting $9.50 on him to win. He's $3.90 and the form is 0534003332, placing in each of his last three starts, a 2nd at Ellerslie 1200m and a 3rd at Hastings 1300m. He's 0 wins from 3 on soft, but I'll take the placings in the wet. Woman In Charge has been strong with Opie Bosson, but zero wins from three on soft leaves her as a placings horse at best. Water Catcher is the roughie, and he has the late kick if the speed holds up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)

1. Hervey Bay (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.72
Bet $9.50 Win, return $38.00
Prob 25.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.02x ▲3% since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 7 and has been placed in each of his last three starts. Soft 3:0-1-2 says he's been close all the way on the wet, and the L400 sectional rank is 2.
2. Anora (No.10) — $8.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 24.9% | Value: 0.74x ▲7% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Woman In Charge (No.12) — $5.50 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 0.47x ▼8% since tip
Why Opie Bosson is 21.4% at this track and she's been placed on soft with two seconds from three starts. Midfield from barrier 2, so she needs the leaders to fade.

Roughie: Water Catcher (No.6) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 4, midfield on the map, and a 3rd at Ruakaka 1200m back in September. The L400 sectional line is the fastest in this group, so if the first two go hard, his kick is the path.

Race 3 – Skycity Christmas Carnival Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper, and nobody maps to lead. Superbus from barrier 2, The Bouncer from barrier 9 and Sovrana from barrier 7 are the likeliest to find the front, so the first lap could be a scrap or a stroll. Endless Night from barrier 1 and Roccadonna are the backmarkers who need the front pair to come back.
Punty read: No locked selections in this race, so I'm watching only. Superbus is 2kg up on last start and has a best-at-lighter-weights line. Endless Night finished 4th at Ellerslie 1400m last start and is one to watch from the back. Compulsory is the one with the most starts, 35 runs with 5 seconds and 4 thirds, but no wins. Watch the first lap and see who grabs the front.