Saturday, 25 April 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Ladies Pro and Moonwalk sitting midfield and God's Rapture trying to find a lane from the back
Punty read: This is the kind of race where you don't want to give away the first two furlongs and expect to run past them like Superman. Moonwalk gets the nod because she's right in the sweet spot of the map, and the race should be run to suit a horse that can hold a handy spot and finish the job. Ladies Pro is the class act, but the price has been clipped to the bone and she's not exactly the sort you want to be taking short enough to feel sick if she gets eyeballed late. Split The Gee is the honest little bastard in the race, but the market's already in the know and the weight/win setup isn't exactly a free carry.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Moonwalk (No.4) — $7.75 / $2.60 🏆 6TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 26.5% | Place: 30.0% | Value: 2.41x
Why The map is kind enough, the race shape isn't brutal, and she's the sort that can sit in the right part of the field and pounce when the whips go up.
2. Split The Gee (No.3) — $4.70 / $1.90 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.1% | Place: 27.0% | Value: 1.28x
Why Honest as they come and probably rolls into the right spot again, but the place price isn't juicy enough to get me slamming the desk.
3. God's Rapture (No.5) — $10.00 / $3.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.8% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 2.09x
Why If the speed collapses and he gets a clean crack from the back, he can absolutely swan in late and ruin the party.
Roughie: Fiery Spark (No.2) — $20.00 / $4.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 16.5% | Value: 3.08x
Why Needs the race to fall apart, but the drift says the market's not exactly doing cartwheels, so he's the one you'd use if you're hunting a blowout.
Race type: Handicap, 1800m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with Decoration likely controlling it, while the rest try to keep the leader honest
Punty read: Decoration maps to roll along and if she gets two or three cheap ones in the middle, she'll be a bastard to run down. Uni Queen is the sneaky one because the yard knows how to get one ready and the market's noticed a bit of support. Fifth Essence is the sort that can keep winning if the race falls his way, but he's been eased a touch and I'm not dying in a trench for him at the current price.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Decoration (No.2) — $3.67 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.00
Prob 22.2% | Place: 16.7% | Value: 1.02x
Why Looks the leader, should get a controlled ride, and if he gets the cheap middle splits he's the one they've all got to run down.
2. Shaula (No.9) — $8.70 / $2.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 14.7% | Value: 1.99x
Why Has a place to go on the map if she can lob in the right spot, but she's not screaming "prime betting proposition" at me.
3. Uni Queen (No.5) — $8.05 / $2.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 13.3% | Value: 1.60x
Why The stable is hot, the market has already had a nibble, and she's the one that can sneak into the finish if the speed is only honest.
Roughie: Myzoom (No.7) — $12.50 / $3.40 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 7.5% | Value: 1.27x
Why Big drift and a dodgy recent run are the obvious knocks, but if he settles closer than usual he's a little smoky for the exotics.
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Proper tempo with Hillside Avenue trying to boss it and the on-speed brigade all wanting the same patch of turf
Punty read: This is a genuine little speed fight, and I'm treating it like the scene in Heat where nobody wants to blink first. Cos I Am is the class horse but he's got to navigate the map and the drift says he's not exactly being worshipped by the market. Snippets Return and Official Business are both capable of landing handy and making the right sort of noise, while Light Of The World is the rough one who could lob into a place if the gaps open and the ride is patient. If Mark The Sky gets support, it's because somebody somewhere likes the setup, but I'm not wanting to chase him at skinny odds off a blank last-start profile.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Cos I Am (No.6) — $3.17 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$15.00
Prob 18.4% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.72x
Why The class is there, and if he gets the race run to suit, the drift won't matter a toss when he's launching late.
2. Snippets Return (No.1) — $16.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 2.86x
Why Big drift is the worry, but he's got enough pace to sit closer than the backmarkers and make life awkward for the leaders.
3. Official Business (No.2) — $8.05 / $2.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 24.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why Winkers on first time and a handy map make him a live little player if he jumps cleanly and doesn't get shuffled back.
Roughie: Light Of The World (No.3) — $15.25 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 16.0% | Value: 2.21x
Why Better than the bare form looks, and if the speed cracks up he's the one who can sneak through the wreckage.
Race type: Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Odinaka likely getting a dream run and the backmarkers needing the right chop-out
Punty read: Odinaka is the horse I want on this map because he can sit right in the first wave and get every chance to grind them into the turf. Simply Thinkin' is the scary one if he's found his second wind, and Dug Another Hole keeps popping up in the right races without fully sticking the knife in. Noble Connection has been backed and has enough class to make a nuisance of himself, but the weight and pace setup aren't gifts from the racing gods. Desennea is the wild one; if the race turns into a proper stoppie and the leaders roll off, he can fly at a price and make the bookies earn their beer.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Odinaka (No.1) — $4.10 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 21.9% | Place: 46.4% | Value: 1.10x
Why Maps right in the thick of it, has the fitness base, and this sort of Ascot mile can turn into a procession for the horse sitting in the right chair.
2. Simply Thinkin' (No.5) — $5.75 / $2.05 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 37.9% | Value: 1.32x
Why If the race gets run like a crawl and he gets one clean crack, he's dangerous late.
3. Dug Another Hole (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 42.6% | Value: 0.94x
Why Honest enough and will be right there turning in, but he needs the right sort of pressure to really pinch it.
Roughie: Desennea (No.7) — $30.00 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 20.0% | Value: 2.81x
Why Drifting like a barge, but if the speed falls in a hole and the race gets messy, he's the blowout that can blow the whole thing up.
Race type: Benchmark 66+, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed with Castle Road likely rolling on, and the on-pace runners getting every chance to steal the socks off the locals
Punty read: This is a proper little speed puzzle and the sort of sprint where a bad map can ruin your afternoon faster than a dodgy schooner on a hot day. Sound Of Speed is the one I want because he's got the right tactical shape for this sort of straight-up Ascot fling, and if he gets the right sit he can be hard to hold out. Black Ora and Shmoov Moova are both serious players, but the market hasn't been shy about them and I'm not keen on being stitched up at cramped odds in a sprint where one bad step can cost the whole gig. Scream is the roughie that could hit the line if they overcook it early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Sound Of Speed (No.8) — $6.75 / $2.15 🏆 7TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 19.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.59x
Why Maps beautifully enough in a race that should get run with proper juice, and he's the one likely to be produced at the right moment.
2. Black Ora (No.1) — $3.67 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.3% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.83x
Why She's got the class, but the pace map isn't kind enough to make me want to pay up short.
3. Shmoov Moova (No.3) — $3.73 / $1.45 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 31.7% | Value: 0.75x
Why Honest as a fork and should be in the firing line, but the drift says the market's cooling a touch.
Roughie: Scream (No.9) — $13.75 / $3.60 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 20.4% | Value: 1.78x
Why If the tempo turns brutal, he's the swooper who can come flying over the top like a Marvel villain.
Race type: Benchmark 84+, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Royal Toronado and the backmarkers needing the pace to lift or the race will become a tactical snooze-fest
Punty read: Fancy Red is the one I'm happiest to land on because this race looks like it'll be controlled for a long way and she can stalk the speed and kick when it matters. Royal Toronado is the obvious class horse but he's short enough that you'd want a hall pass from the racing gods before piling in, especially with the map not screaming for a swooping miracle. Russian To The Bar has been backed and for good reason; the market move says the stable fancy him, and if he gets the right cart into the race he can threaten. Fear The Wind and Trio are the type of honest grinders that make exotics run when the tempo is honest and the last 200m turns into a slog.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Fancy Red (No.5) — $4.40 / $1.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.50
Prob 22.1% | Place: 16.6% | Value: 1.25x
Why Handy map, good class profile, and he's the sort that can get the right run when the race is being run like a chess match.
2. Fear The Wind (No.1) — $17.75 / $3.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 13.4% | Value: 3.71x
Why If they overdo it in front or he gets a drag into the race, he's got the kind of finish that can make the long-shot mugs cough into their middies.
3. Russian To The Bar (No.4) — $8.25 / $2.20 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 13.3% | Value: 1.70x
Why The market's had a sniff and the horse has the right sort of late strength if the race gets honest enough.
Roughie: Outspoken Lad (No.7) — $10.30 / $2.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 5.6% | Value: 1.11x
Why Needs the race to melt down a touch, but he's one of the few who can turn this into a proper boilover if the tempo lifts.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo with London's Image likely controlling things and Fast Flicker getting the right sort of on-pace ride
Punty read: Bonjoy is the class mare of the race and looks poised to get the perfect stalking run behind a leader who'll want to hand out no favours. London's Image gets the race run his way and if he rolls them along with just enough restraint, he can absolutely nick it again. Be Bardot is the sort of mare who can turn this into a proper nuisance if she gets the right sit, and Fast Flicker is the one who can turn the race into a speed-on race if she gets handy and finds the right rhythm. Rissoles and Platinum Shot are the sneaky roughs who can fill a hole if the tempo gets messy.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Bonjoy (No.2) — $3.40 / $1.37 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 20.5% | Place: 40.5% | Value: 0.86x
Why She's the class act and if the race becomes a sit-and-sprint, she's the one with the best chance of lobbing in the sweet spot and finishing over them.
2. London's Image (No.1) — $2.80 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 38.3% | Value: 0.59x
Why Drawn to make his own luck and can control the tempo if they let him, but the price is skin-tight.
3. Be Bardot (No.8) — $11.50 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 40.4% | Value: 2.33x
Why If she gets into the race without burning petrol, she's the sneaky mare who can storm home and ruin the favourite party.
Roughie: Rissoles (No.5) — $13.00 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 25.9% | Value: 1.68x
Why Needs the pace to be honest and the gaps to come at the right time, but she's got enough finishing punch to be the annoying one.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with Exceltrain likely forcing the issue, and Timeless Gem the horse getting the tempo edge
Punty read: Malletier is the obvious top pick because he's been backed in and the market's clearly comfy with him, but this is still a race where one bad step can turn your afternoon into a therapy session. Pond Master is the one with the big "what if" attached because he's been a touch unlucky and maps to get a fair run, while The Calabrese has the class to sneak into the finish if the race opens up. Timeless Gem is the spicy one: the map loves him, the market has drifted, and that's exactly the sort of setup that makes punters either look like geniuses or absolute plonkers.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Malletier (No.7) — $2.20 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 17.2% | Place: 34.6% | Value: 0.47x
Why Has the market backing and the right sort of forward map, so if the leaders don't knock each other out early he's the one to beat.
2. Pond Master (No.3) — $16.50 / $3.60 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 3.42x
Why Stiff when held up and the run profile says he's ready to smack the line if the gaps appear at the right time.
3. The Calabrese (No.10) — $5.75 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 33.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why Better than the last run suggests and the gear tweak says the stable wants a cleaner ride this time around.
Roughie: Timeless Gem (No.6) — $12.00 / $3.20 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 23.1% | Value: 1.56x
Why The map absolutely loves him, and if the race turns into a cavalry charge late he's the one that can pinch a slice of the prize.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 4,3,1 / 2,9,5,1 / 6,1,2,3,4 / 1,5,6,2 (240 combos x $0.21 = $50.40) -- 21% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 8,1,3,5 / 5,1,4,3 / 2,1,8,3 / 7,3,10,9,6 (320 combos x $0.25 = $80.00) -- 25% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6 / 1 / 8 / 5 / 2 / 7 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Moonwalk (Race 1, No.4)✗ — $7.75
2 - Odinaka (Race 4, No.1) — $4.10
3 - Bonjoy (Race 7, No.2) — $3.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ascot's serving up a proper Good 4 on the rails with that slight headwind off the SSW, which means the on-pace brigade should get first crack at the chocolates and the swoopers need a bit of luck and a lot of horsepower.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ascot, 1000m-1800m card
Rail: +7m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play on-pace friendly)
Weather: Sunny, 22C, humidity 50%, light 9km/h SSW breeze with an 8km/h headwind up the straight (watch for closers finding it hard to sustain a big finish)
Early lane guess: On-pace, handy maps, and barrier advantage in the sprints
Tempo profile: A few sit-and-sprint affairs early, proper speed in the back half, and the shorties will need to work for it if they get bailed up
Jockeys to follow:
William Pike, if the map is right, he's still the bloke you want with the steering wheel
Clint Johnston-Porter, nails the tempo in these on-speed races and doesn't waste a ride
Ms Lucy Fiore, keeps them out of trouble and is deadly when she lands the perfect stalking sit
Stables to respect:
G & A Williams (5 runners), a proper Ascot yard with the right sort of horses for this rail position
D & B Pearce (5 runners), plenty of live chances, especially where tempo and positioning matter
Simon Miller (3 runners), always dangerous when they've got a horse that can roll forward or box seat
Punty's take: This looks like one of those Ascot cards where the map is half the battle and the wind is doing enough to matter without turning the joint into a bog. The sweet spot is up on speed, especially from tidy draws, and that's why you'll see me leaning into horses that can land near the front without burning petrol like a Fast and Furious scene.
Race 1 and Race 4 look like the sort of races where a sensible punter can actually draw a line through the form and not have a full-blown existential crisis. Race 5, Race 7 and Race 8 are the ones where the cards are tossed in the air, the bar staff are sweating, and you either get paid or go home muttering about how the game is cooked.
What it means for you: Don't go chasing every roughie like it's the final lap at Bathurst. The best money today is on horses that map cleanly, sit in the first wave, and get the right run when the pressure goes on. I'm happy to be bold in the races where the map is clear, but I'm also happy to keep the powder dry in the messy ones and let the exotics do the heavy lifting.
If you're betting straight, keep it tidy and lean on the horses with map advantage. If you're playing exotics, stick to the pre-built shapes and don't get cute trying to invent your own Picasso masterpiece. The meeting's got a few shorties who deserve respect, but there's enough smoke around the edges to make the value plays worth a sniff.