Saturday, 25 April 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: BM84, 2500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with a few handy types, but this is still a proper staying test where the long straight can let the better finishers have their say
Punty read: Bluestone looks the right horse at the right time, even if the price is a bit skinny. Xtra Rush is the speed horse that might control things if the others hand him the soft lead, while Sir Chartwell's the type who could bob up for a place if he settles and doesn't overdo it. The Western Front is the natural swooper, but at this level he can't afford to be bailed up when the pressure goes on. Stockman is the old warhorse who'll have a crack, but this looks more like a place mission than a full-blown raid.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Bluestone (No.8) — $3.08 / $1.30 🏆 8TH
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 24.0% | Place: 49.1% | Value: 0.85x
Why He's the one with the market lean, the blinkers are still on, and in a race like this the horse that can sit midfield and keep grinding is the bloke you want when the whips are cracking.
2. Xtra Rush (No.6) — $6.70 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.85
Prob 19.9% | Place: 43.6% | Value: 1.53x
Why Can roll forward and give a sight, but the map isn't a free kick and he could be the one doing a bit too much work early if they let him boss it.
3. Sir Chartwell (No.3) — $12.25 / $3.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 20.2% | Value: 1.73x
Why Has the right sort of map to be thereabouts, but he's been knocking up plenty of "almost" runs and the stable needs him to lift another gear before I'm getting truly excited.
Roughie: Enchanted Elle (No.10) — $41.50 / $7.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 23.0% | Value: 4.24x
Why If the speed gets serious and the front-runners overcook it, she's the one who could come charging late and ruin a few multis.
Race type: BM70, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with a bunch of midfielders and not much separation; if they stack up, the straight gives the swoopers a chance, but the horse with the cleaner lane wins the argument
Punty read: Cafe Au Lait is the one the market's been spearing, and you can see why with that prep and the right rider. Cardamom and Concord Connie are honest enough, but this is the sort of race where everyone looks a chance until the last 150m and then half the field starts waving the white flag. Cooly is the roughie with a sneaky path if the speed lifts and they overdo it in front. Next Jen is the one that could make this messy if she gets the right tow into it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Cafe Au Lait (No.4) — $5.25 / $1.90 🏆 10TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 15.5% | Place: 30.3% | Value: 0.98x
Why Heavily backed and rightly so - maps midfield, gets a decent run, and Jye McNeil can just sit there waiting for the gaps to open.
2. Cardamom (No.5) — $8.35 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 26.1% | Value: 1.37x
Why Honest type who keeps finding the line, but in a race this bunched up you want a cleaner sit and a bit more upside than he's offering.
3. Concord Connie (No.8) — $3.62 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 39.1% | Value: 0.55x
Why Looks the right sort to run well from the back, but the price is all too short for a horse that still needs a bit of luck to slot in and launch.
Roughie: Cooly (No.7) — $25.00 / $5.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 2.51x
Why If they carve each other up early, he's the one who can be storming home late while the rest of them are chewing the handlebars.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed with Cignetti in front; that should hand the stalking brigade their chance, and the long Flemington straight will punish anything that overdoes it
Punty read: Blind Raise looks the horse with the right setup - solid debut, maps well, and the market's already come for him. Seraphox is the sort who can bounce back if you forgive the wide run last time, while Drumfire is the progressive one who can improve again if the tempo is truly on. Profligate is interesting off the firming, but the place line isn't fat enough to get rich over. Prime Pattern is the roughie if you want to dream about the race falling in a heap and a backmarker storming over the top.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Blind Raise (No.1) — $2.75 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$19.50
Prob 19.9% | Place: 42.6% | Value: 0.65x
Why He looked like he had a stack left in the tank at debut, and with the speed on he gets the sort of stalking run that makes a young horse look a million bucks.
2. Profligate (No.9) — $6.30 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 36.9% | Value: 1.21x
Why He can absolutely run a race if they overdo it up front, but the line just isn't juicy enough to chase after with the place numbers where they are.
3. Seraphox (No.2) — $3.85 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 32.9% | Value: 0.71x
Why Forgive the wide-trip excuse last time, but he's still a touch too tight for me at the price unless everything falls perfectly in his lap.
Roughie: Prime Pattern (No.5) — $19.25 / $3.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 2.37x
Why If they go hammer and tongs early and a few leaders blow the candles out, he's the one who can be rattling home like a bad sequel nobody expected to be good.
Race type: BM74, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, which puts the on-pace runners into the game, but the long straight still gives the classy sit-and-sprint types a way to blow by late
Punty read: First Chorus is the one I want on top - he's got the map, the stable's ticking over nicely, and this is the sort of race where a horse can sit in the box seat and just stalk the pace like a shark in a swimming pool. Mukhtalif will try to turn it into a tactical war from barrier 2, and if he's left alone he can pinch it. House Of Lords is the nasty roughie at the huge quote, but the place line says don't get carried away. Curse It is the other wild one if they go no lick early, but he's a stake-cut only sort of play.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. First Chorus (No.6) — $4.15 / $1.65 🏆 9TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 16.5% | Place: 22.7% | Value: 0.81x
Why Sits right on the map in a race that won't be run at a furious clip, and if he gets a clean run he's the one with the best chance to turn the screws late.
2. Mukhtalif (No.2) — $3.02 / $1.37 🏆 14TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 17.7% | Value: 0.48x
Why He'll be right there on the paint, but the market has him too short for a horse that still needs to prove he can keep the revs up when the pressure comes.
3. House Of Lords (No.9) — $30.50 / $6.00 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 18.6% | Value: 4.34x
Why The roughie with the right sort of late engine if they dawdle, but you're basically betting on chaos and a perfect tow.
Roughie: Curse It (No.5) — $24.00 / $5.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 16.5% | Value: 3.00x
Why Needs the right tempo and a clean passage, then he's the sort that can sucker-punch them late if the leaders go to sleep.
Race type: BM100, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo with a heap of horses wanting to settle midfield; if the speed stays honest enough, the class runners should sort themselves out late
Punty read: King Zephyr is the one with the best overall profile, even if the market's got him on the short side. Athanatos and Marble Arch both have a case on form and map, but this is a race where the old class edge can matter more than a flashy last start. Big Swinger is the big mover type you keep in the back pocket if the map goes pear-shaped, and Cartoon Graveyard is the roughie that can pick up the scraps if they get racing early enough. Give Me Space is the one I reckon could do a bit late with the winkers on, but the line's telling you he's a no-bet at the price.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. King Zephyr (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — Cashed, net -$4.50
Prob 15.6% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 0.60x
Why He's the class act in the race and he just keeps finding a way, even if the gate isn't doing him any favours.
2. Athanatos (No.3) — $7.45 / $2.35 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 1.32x
Why Honest as the day is long and racing well, but the setup doesn't scream "smash me now" with enough confidence.
3. Marble Arch (No.1) — $22.00 / $4.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 32.9% | Value: 3.78x
Why Resuming with a decent first-up profile, but the drift says the stable aren't doing cartwheels and he needs the right ride to get into the fight.
Roughie: Cartoon Graveyard (No.5) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 25.1% | Value: 1.36x
Why If they go too hard and the map gets messy, he's the sneaky one who can hang around and nick a slice.
Race type: Open, 2800m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo over a proper staying trip, which means the race can become a patience contest - one bad move and you're toast
Punty read: Dad And Dave is the value play in the staying test, and the rise to 2800m looks like it can help him settle into the right rhythm. Deal Done Fast is short enough to make you blink, but the price says the market's done the heavy lifting already. Haiiro has the blinkers on and could be the improver if he gets the race run to suit, while Finance Merchant has the big money move about him but no bet from the model means you don't chase the shine. Erupt is the roughie who can sneak into it if the race turns into a grind and the others start looking at each other.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Dad And Dave (No.2) — $10.25 / $3.20 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 11.9% | Place: 25.8% | Value: 1.49x
Why The extra trip should suit him down to the ground, and if they don't crawl he's the one who can keep rolling when the others are begging for a chair.
2. Deal Done Fast (No.1) — $3.90 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 25.1% | Value: 0.55x
Why Quality stays over the trip, but the market has him crunched and I'm not keen taking that sort of skinny juice in a war of attrition.
3. Haiiro (No.4) — $21.25 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 23.7% | Value: 2.79x
Why Blinkers on can sharpen him right up, and if he settles closer than usual he can absolutely run into the finish at a juicy price.
Roughie: Finance Merchant (No.8) — $17.75 / $4.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 22.7% | Value: 2.23x
Why The market's had a proper nibble, and if that money is telling the truth he's the one who can lob in the frame late without having to be a superstar.
Race type: Handicap, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, which means the leaders and the handy types get first crack; if the tempo doesn't lift, the swoopers will need a miracle
Punty read: Zakouma is the one they keep backing for a reason - he's got the map, the profile, and enough zip to be hard to run down if he controls the tempo. Too Darn Discreet is the honest grinder, Berkshire Breeze has a sneaky late finish if the race opens up, and Sun Gift is the roughie who can overrun a few if they let him stride late. Benagil and Chase Your Dreams have gear and profile angles, but the market says tread carefully.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Zakouma (No.15) — $2.48 / $1.35 🏆 7TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 13.9% | Place: 20.4% | Value: 0.40x
Why The market's knocked him in and he's got the right map to make a mess of the opposition if he gets rolling in front.
2. Too Darn Discreet (No.6) — $12.00 / $2.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 19.6% | Value: 1.86x
Why A proper honest type, but he'll need the race to pan out perfectly and the place line says he's not quite the bet I want.
3. Berkshire Breeze (No.7) — $21.00 / $4.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 18.1% | Value: 2.73x
Why Has the sort of finishing burst that can land a blow if they go too slowly early, but he's still more of a "watch me run on" horse than a prime betting proposition.
Roughie: Sun Gift (No.11) — $12.75 / $3.40 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 15.0% | Value: 1.43x
Why If they stack around and the leaders come back to the field, he can absolutely clatter the line and make a few people spit their beers.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with a few speeds on, so the race should be honest enough for a horse to win from midfield if the lane opens up at the right time
Punty read: Theblade is the one I want on top - gets a nice run, has the right map, and should be able to use the tailwind when the race starts to string out. Cripps is the heavily backed favourite and he's got every right to be in the finish, but the market's not enough to make me blink if Theblade's the better map horse. Everain is the classy little jet who can certainly win if he gets the right crack at them, while Arcandam is the roughie with the late engine if the race gets rubbery. Star Sirius is the big price danger for the exotics, but the top pair still look the cleanest way through.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Theblade (No.6) — $9.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 12.3% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 1.31x
Why The map says he'll get the nicer run than the favourite, and in a Flemington straight race that's often half the battle.
2. Cripps (No.11) — $4.05 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 0.58x
Why He keeps getting backed and he's a danger, but the price is too short to get me excited when the lane could get messy.
3. Star Sirius (No.14) — $27.00 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 3.46x
Why The big roughie with the finishing kick if they overcook it, but you want the race to fall apart a bit for him to really sting them.
Roughie: Arcandam (No.10) — $19.50 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 18.3% | Value: 1.67x
Why He can roll into the finish if they go at it early, but he's the sort who needs the race to be set up just right.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 8,6,3,4 / 4,5,8,7,2,6 / 1,9,2,3,5 / 6,2,9,5,15 (600 combos x $0.11 = $65.00) -- 11% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 4,3,1,7,5 / 2,1,4,8,13,3 / 15,6,7,11,5 / 6,11,14,3,12 (750 combos x $0.11 = $80.00) -- 11% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1 / 6 / 4 / 2 / 15 / 6 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Bluestone (Race 1, No.8)✗ — $3.08
2 - Blind Raise (Race 3, No.1)✓ Won — $2.75
3 - First Chorus (Race 4, No.6)✗ — $4.15
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Flemington's serving up a true-rail Good 4 with a proper tailwind up the straight, so the last 300m should feel like the finish line's got a bloody fan behind it. That helps the swoopers, but it doesn't mean you throw away the map and back every bloke charging home like he's in the final scene of Rocky.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Flemington, 1400m-2800m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair, with late closers getting their chance)
Weather: Sunny, 21°C, humidity 40%, wind 27km/h NNE, gusts to 37km/h (watch for a sustained run home and a late swooping lane)
Early lane guess: Middle to slightly off the rail in the straight; the fresh air should be for the horses with a finish on them
Tempo profile: Mostly moderate, but a few races are proper tactical knife fights where map position will matter more than bravery
Jockeys to follow:
Jye McNeil, keeps getting himself into the right spot and lands on a stack of the better maps across the card
Declan Bates, rides with a cool head, knows when to press the button, and is on a few live ones
Luke Currie, patient in the saddle and deadly when there's a gap to take in the Flemington straight
Stables to respect:
C Maher (7 runners), live bullets everywhere and a couple of them are getting the market sniffing around
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (7 runners), plenty of depth, a few map-friendly runners, and they're not here for a picnic
T Busuttin & N Young (3 runners), not lots of arrows, but the ones they have can absolutely slap if they get the right run
Punty's take: This meeting's got a bit of everything: a couple of shorties, a heap of open handicaps, and enough market shuffling to keep the bookies sweating in the ring. Flemington's long straight with that tailwind means you don't want to be parked in no man's land at the top of the lane, but you also don't want to get drunk on swooper fever and start backing backmarkers in races that crawl. That's how you end up staring at the telly like you've just lost the plot in a Tarantino movie.
The cleanest way to play it is to trust the horses with a map and a bit of class, then let the straight do the rest. Races 2, 4, 6, 7 and 8 are the ones where the chess game matters most, and the exotics are where the juice is if you're going to have a crack. There are a few drifters I wouldn't be diving into with both boots, but there are also some well-supported runners that make sense once you look at the pace and the lanes they should get.
What it means for you: Today is a day to be picky, not heroic. The best lane is probably a mix of win on the one or two solid anchors, place on the ones that should run well without necessarily winning, and then lean on the pre-built exotic tickets where the race shape actually makes sense. Don't get sucked into every shiny roughie on the card just because they're paying for a new ute.
If a race is a crawl, the handy horses can pinch it. If it's genuinely run, the swoopers can mow them down. That means you want to keep your powder dry for the races where the map and the form line up, and avoid spraying money at the long-tail chaos just because the price looks sexy. Think less pub trivia, more "who's actually getting the right run?"