TOP PICKS ON THE MOVE — the picks on this card have shifted 6 times today on scratchings and market moves. Punty's staying nimble; treat this card with care.
Friday, 11 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1550m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, a few can hold advantage early but the cut-up finish can swing it
Punty read: This one's a Soft 6 maiden where the "best horse" wins, but the "best position" punches above its weight. Karma Queen (No.7) maps in the right strata, she can sit close enough to take advantage when others start slipping. Black Hex (No.1) has had excuses, but Gradivus (No.6) is the sort of market danger when the scratch of confidence happens late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Karma Queen (No.7) — $3.60 / $1.52 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 31.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.40x
Why On the pace on a surface where you want to be travelling, plus her recent runs suggest she's close enough to salute.
2. Black Hex (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.75
Prob 17.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.75x
Why She's had proper interference and slow-start issues, so the effort hasn't been a lie, it's been messy.
3. Gradivus (No.6) — $3.30 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 59.2% | Value: 1.24x
Why If he's top 3, cool, but I'm not taking the place overs at this spot when the value isn't paying its rent.
Roughie: Caesour's Tomb (No.2) — $10.00 / $2.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 0.48x
Why Roughie path is real, but you're relying on a bigger lift and that's not my priority tonight.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, sprint where position is everything
Punty read: This is a race where you can't lose the start, because on 1100 the first 200m decide the job. Ilustrious Warrior (No.2) is the forward type that gets first crack. Grand Millesime (No.9) keeps threatening, Just Comet (No.10) might be the safer "hang around and pay" option. But if it's a chaotic sprint, Don't Say Do (No.7) is the one that can pop up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Ilustrious Warrior (No.2) — $3.10 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$42.00
Prob 25.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.98x
Why He's the right sort for Soft 6 sprints, sits midfield and then gets the split when others are still thinking.
2. Grand Millesime (No.9) — $3.10 / $1.52 🏆 5TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 21.3% | Place: 65.8% | Value: 0.65x
Why He's been in the fight and the map suggests he can land in the right pocket without getting mugged.
3. Just Comet (No.10) — $5.30 / $2.05 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.12x
Why He can place, but we're not paying extra for the privilege at this level.
Roughie: Don't Say Do (No.7) — $11.00 / $2.85 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.45x
Why His job is simple, if the pace collapses, he's got enough to swoop into the frame late.
Race type: Handicap, 1550m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with space to move, midrace position matters
Punty read: Spelman (No.3) is the one who looks like he's made for this sort of trip, blinkers/winkers combo and a pattern of finishing power. Hallstatt (No.4) has talent but can be a bit boom-or-bust depending on where the run opens. On The Map (No.7) is the kind of leader who gets every chance if nobody takes him on properly.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Spelman (No.3) — $4.10 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 22.1% | Place: 67.3% | Value: 1.18x
Why Blinkers back on, and he's the type that loves a handicap with a steady tempo and a proper finish.
2. Hallstatt (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 60.6% | Value: 1.05x
Why He's been thereabouts and the surface gives him a chance to grind into it rather than explode too early.
3. On The Map (No.7) — $3.70 / $1.62 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.69x
Why If he leads and controls, sure, but this is a deeper race than "lead and win" suggests.
Roughie: Urbanise (No.9) — $9.20 / $2.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.08x
Why Roughie play is run on into the placings if the middle bunch spreads out.
Race type: Handicap, 1550m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the on-pace types get a massive advantage
Punty read: Blue Isles (No.4) is the clear "get to the right spot and keep rolling" type here, and on Soft 6 slow races, that often turns into a win. Shalhavmusik (No.8) looks like the value place lever, and Enciphering (No.1) has the class to be around it, but he needs the race to fall his way.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Blue Isles (No.4) — $2.30 / $1.17 🏆 6TH
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 32.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.98x
Why He's got the position and the kind of profile that handles Soft 6 slow tempo without fading early.
2. Shalhavmusik (No.8) — $6.00 / $2.05 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 17.1% | Place: 62.7% | Value: 1.35x
Why This is the "parked and pouncing" sweet spot, and if the leaders start coughing, she's the one that profits.
3. Enciphering (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.85 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why He might run well, but the place odds are asking for too much.
Roughie: Aussie Pharoah (No.3) — $12.00 / $2.90 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.01x
Why Roughie chances are real if the race compresses late, but I'm not spreading the cash.
Race type: Benchmark, 2000m
Map & tempo: Classic ground, moderate pace, stayers get their say
Punty read: Divine Fire (No.6) is the main character for me, because 2000m on Soft 6 is where you want a horse that can keep getting into the race without burning the tank. Yorokobi (No.7) is the kind of danger that always runs into the finish, Collated (No.2) is handy and can hit the line hard if the leaders don't go ballistic. Prickly Poppy (No.12) is the roughie if the race turns into chaos in the back half.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Divine Fire (No.6) — $4.40 / $1.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — Cashed, net -$0.75
Prob 19.8% | Place: 53.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why He's the right blend of fitness and patience, and the 2000m lets him use his tempo rather than getting stuck.
2. Yorokobi (No.7) — $4.00 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 0.94x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Collated (No.2) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.07x
Why He can place, but the value band just isn't there for me today.
Roughie: Prickly Poppy (No.12) — $13.00 / $3.70 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 18.8% | Value: 0.94x
Why Roughie is the classic late punch, if the bottom of the field gets a better run than expected.
Race type: Benchmark, 1300m
Map & tempo: Short sprint, moderate pace, you need to be in the right lane
Punty read: Switching Hit (No.1) and Impending Diamond (No.10) are both in "can hold a line and finish" territory. Miss Ellaneous (No.8) is the market yielder but also the kind who can be a value danger if she gets rolling early. Full Commitment (No.6) and Oie De Toulouse (No.2) are the place suspects.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Switch Hit (No.1) — $5.50 / $2.05 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$0.21
Prob 17.4% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.26x
Why He gets a solid run in the midfield and, crucially, 1300m on Soft 6 can reward patience.
2. Miss Ellaneous (No.8) — $3.60 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 54.8% | Value: 0.74x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Impending Diamond (No.10) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.21x
Why If he's in the fight, he'll be there, but I'm not paying the place tax for the third leg.
Roughie: Forever Waiting (No.5) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why Roughie play is if the pace scrambles and he can pick up a cheap lane late.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, short dash, leaders and stalkers dominate
Punty read: Outpost (No.1) is the pick because he's got the speed map and the ability to keep travelling when they're making it hard. Melissa Kate (No.6) is the danger, she looks like she'll be in the right part of the race. Rob The Bank (No.2) is the solid value of the "he'll be thereabouts" type, and Two Kay Klick (No.7) is the roughie if the race turns into a sprint duel.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Outpost (No.1) — $3.90 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 22.3% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.14x
Why He's got the forward intent and the 1200m gives him just enough runway to take control.
2. Melissa Kate (No.6) — $4.40 / $1.82 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 20.3% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.17x
Why She's a repeat threat, and if she jumps clean and gets cover, she can finish over the top.
3. Rob The Bank (No.2) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why He's live, but the place route at this price is a bit too thin.
Roughie: Two Kay Klick (No.7) — $13.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 19.2% | Value: 1.02x
Why Roughie needs the leaders to tire at once, and for her to get into the gap.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, tight contest, late running matters if the track stays churny
Punty read: The Ice Cutter (No.6) is the one I want, because he's the right sort to keep finding runs late when the tempo doesn't sprint away from everyone. Affaire Vue (No.3) and Just Like Lisa (No.4) are the big pace-and-position threats, but if that inside gets sticky, Exonumia (No.2) can sneak in and take a slice.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. The Ice Cutter (No.6) — $4.00 / $1.72 🏆 5TH
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 21.8% | Place: 56.5% | Value: 1.16x
Why He's got the class to park wherever the race breaks and then hit the line with momentum.
2. Affaire Vue (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.20
Prob 15.3% | Place: 46.6% | Value: 0.86x
Why Leader profile, and if he gets clear air early, he can hold the finish together.
3. Just Like Lisa (No.4) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.93x
Why She can be there, but I'm not paying for the third spot in the place market.
Roughie: Immortal Spirit (No.9) — $13.00 / $3.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.32x
Why Roughie is the "get held up, then sprint through" scenario if things go wrong for the main runners.
Race type: Benchmark, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so it becomes about who holds on and who finds the line when it matters
Punty read: Naralinga (No.2) is the best map fit, and 1200m on a Soft 6 with real pace means she can sit in the right lane and pounce. Costless (No.6) has the "keep running" profile, Startide (No.11) is the value place angle, and Skytalker (No.5) is the one that can pop up if the race strings out. Lady Memphis (No.12) is the roughie if the tempo folds late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Naralinga (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$52.00
Prob 21.9% | Place: 57.6% | Value: 1.05x
Why She's made for this pace scenario, and when the tempo is real she can stay balanced and finish strong.
2. Startide (No.11) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.80
Prob 17.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.15x
Why Consistent sort who can run on through the line, and Soft 6 helps horses that finish.
3. Costless (No.6) — $4.30 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 40.8% | Value: 0.86x
Why He's a player, but the place band isn't giving enough back at this spot.
Roughie: Lady Memphis (No.12) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 26.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why Roughie needs the race to blow out late and for her to sneak into the gaps with speed.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,9,10,7 / 3,4,7,9 / 4,8,1,3 / 7,6,2,12 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.84) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 8,1,10,5 / 2,6,1,7 / 6,3,4,9 / 2,11,6,12 (256 combos x $0.31 = $79.36) -- 31% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,8,1,3 / 7,6,2,12 / 8,1,10,5 / 2,6,1,7 / 6,3,4,9 / 2,11,6,12 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Karma Queen (Race 1, No.7) — $3.60
2 - Ilustrious Warrior (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $3.10
3 - Blue Isles (Race 4, No.4)✗ — $2.30
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Bordertown with a Soft 6 that'll turn half the field into potholes, and the other half into rocket ships. This is one of those meetings where you want speed on the speed, and value where everyone's getting a bit too confident. Let's sort the wheat from the chaff, then chuck a few coins at the degens with a plan.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 6, 1100-2000m card
Rail: +3 metres 1400-1200, True Remainder
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play Speed into Stamina, with some sweep)
Weather: Sunny, 15°C, watch for the track holding together late
Early lane guess: Early ones look like they'll favour a forward position, then the outside can save you on the cut-up surface
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate early, genuine pace shows up in the shorter sprints
Jockeys to follow:
Connor Murtagh: Finds the front end and keeps them there, the "don't make work for yourself" rider.
Todd Pannell: When he's on, he's often on the right stalking trip, especially around the leaders.
Harry Grace: Gets his horses into the right fight, and today he's got a couple of runners that can go from midfield to hero.
Stables to respect:
Garret Lynch (X runners): Shows up with runners that keep coming, even when they look underdone on debut form.
J F Macmillan (X runners): Often sends them to the races with a plan, and he likes getting horses positioned in play.
Grant Kluske (X runners): When he drops one into the right class and pace set-up, he's hard to hold out.
Punty's take:
Bordertown on a Soft 6 is like a mate backing a mate for the seventh time at the pub, eventually the universe has to reward you. The bias feels like it's rewarding horses that can either lead or sit tight enough to pounce, because once the ground gets sticky you can lose 2 lengths in one stupid corner. So my priority today is simple, be near the action, then let the finish do the talking.
The big thing I'm watching is how the tempo lands in each race. Where it's slow, the leaders are more dangerous than you think. Where it's moderate, you've got to watch the sweepers who can stay in the bike-shed and hit late, because Soft 6 is basically "late running tax time." Also, a few horses are getting proper market heat, that's usually either a sign they're live, or a sign the punters are drunk. I'm backing live punters.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive in the spots where the pace setup fits, especially the races with a clean leader or two that can hold a line. For the roughies, you're not betting "because value." You're betting "because if the speed goes, this fella's the one who gets the bottle." And in the sequence lanes, remember this is entertainment. It's still fun, just don't expect it to pay like a bank job every time.
If you're only playing a spine, play it like a tight mate does it. Big 3 multi for the confidence, then single race bets where the story makes sense, and avoid getting cute when the market is already all-in on the front-runner types.