Friday, 11 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, want midfield stalking with a clean run into the straight
Punty read: Prominere (No.6) has the best blend of pace and soft-ground suitability here. In a slow 1800, the danger is getting stuck behind tired horses, but No.6 should be close enough to avoid the nightmare. The Darzi (No.4) is the big threat, he's been showing he can hang around, and once they straighten the rougher way into the finish comes into play. Rippin Along (No.7) is the "if the race breaks, he's there" type, he's often the one picking up lengths late when others are spinning.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Prominere (No.6) — $2.46 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 31.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why he's on the pace, and on a Soft 7 you need a horse that can hold position without losing the will to chase
2. The Darzi (No.4) — $3.02 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $2.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Prob 30.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why consistent place type, and with No.4 handy, the turn to the straight is where he starts grinning at his rivals
3. Rippin Along (No.7) — $4.22 / $1.62 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 56.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: In Tune (No.11) — $16.75 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.1% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.68x
Why Needs a dream trip and the exact sort of pace collapse, way too much iffy for my money
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so riders can bide time then pounce
Punty read: Fiamma (No.11) is the bet here because the price says "go on then" and the profile says he can do it. In a slow 1400, you don't need to be a flyer, you need to be positioned when the field starts scrambling for the line. Ellendale (No.12) is the grinder who can chug into the placings, and Arrazola (No.2) is the sort that gets hampered by the wrong trip but can still sneak a sniff if things fall apart.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Fiamma (No.11) — $2.75 / $1.57 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$26.25
Prob 29.4% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.91x
Why clean stalker profile for Soft 7, and his run style matches the slow-pace map
2. Ellendale (No.12) — $2.94 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.72x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Arrazola (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.5% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.87x
Why Short field, two places, thin divvies — the pool stays on the two bets that earn it. He's on the watch list.
Roughie: Card Shark (No.5) — $9.40 / $3.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.52x
Why If he runs top 3, it's usually because the race shape breaks, but that's not enough for me at this price
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so midfield trips can still win
Punty read: Unswayed (No.1) is the one I want because the classier style usually shows up at 1400m on a day like this. He's the sort that can tuck in, then roll forward without needing a miracle sprint. Scrittore (No.11) is your value place headache, because he's one of those "keeps finding the line" types. Guiding Light (No.4) is the danger if he lands a perfect trip, but the market price doesn't love that scenario, which makes him a watch, not a stake.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Unswayed (No.1) — $2.72 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 35.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.72x
Why the trip should suit, and on a Soft 7 the horse who relaxes is the one who finishes the story
2. Scrittore (No.11) — $3.90 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.25
Prob 16.3% | Place: 48.2% | Value: 1.06x
Why he can handle the tempo and keep building late, perfect for a place play when the win might be tight
3. Guiding Light (No.4) — $5.50 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.45x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: The Explorer (No.13) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.97x
Why if he pops out at the right time he can place, but win luck might be the decider
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Sprint, Soft 7 grip matters, speed from the right spots is everything
Punty read: Imperial Rose (No.6) is the obvious play, and I'm leaning into it hard. In sprint Maidens on Soft 7, the horses that can sprint through the ground and still get balance usually run right through the line. Getupoffathatthing (No.1) can be quick enough to threaten in the first half, but Imperial Rose has that "I'll just keep grinding" look. Truly Divine (No.5) is more an exotics glue than a direct bet at this stage.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Imperial Rose (No.6) — $2.85 / $1.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 41.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.40x
Why on-pace in a sprint and Soft 7 compatible, the right combo to hit the line strongly
2. Getupoffathatthing (No.1) — $2.32 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.0% | Place: 57.6% | Value: 0.60x
Why A real chance — but at $1.17 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Whistlejacket (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.06x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Malikia (No.9) — $19.00 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 1.05x
Why big price chaos, can run into it, but win is a stretch from where he sits
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so find the horse that can hold speed without folding
Punty read: This is a proper "who stays upright through the ground" sprint. Rip Tide (No.4) has the best tempo credentials to stalk and then strike late when the leaders get tired. The Queen's Sword (No.5) is the value place engine, and Capital Express (No.1) has the ability to be there if he avoids the worst of it early. Via Fontanella (No.6) is the one that can look dangerous, but I'm not betting him in this exact watch setup.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)
1. Rip Tide (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$21.85
Prob 16.4% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.73x
Why pace is genuine, and No.4 is built to be there at the business end without getting swallowed
2. The Queen's Sword (No.5) — $4.50 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Prob 16.7% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why place odds line up better than the win price, and sprint Maidens can be a scramble for the minor spots
3. Capital Express (No.1) — $3.80 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.89x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Royal Assett (No.9) — $11.00 / $2.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.46x
Why needs everything to line up, more "if he gets into the clear" than "he's going to win"
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so you want a horse that can stalk then finish with energy
Punty read: Camila (No.3) is the main ticket because she looks like the cleanest option to get the right run through the middle and keep powering. Tiago (No.1) is more of a place-and-grind type, but still dangerous in Soft 7 if he gets a breather and doesn't lose momentum. All On Black (No.9) is there as a threat, but I'm respecting the fact he's more of a value swing rather than a core stake today.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Camila (No.3) — $2.83 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 35.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Soft 7 suited, and at 1200m she should travel well enough to hit the finish with something left
2. Tiago (No.1) — $4.50 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.60
Prob 15.0% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why he can run into the placings when the pace stays slow and everyone comes around the turn too tight
3. All On Black (No.9) — $4.20 / $1.62 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.63x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Potcheen (No.7) — $9.30 / $2.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.14x
Why he needs the pace to collapse just right, roughie land is where miracles live
Race type: Restricted 60, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, short race means positioning at the turn wins more than excuses
Punty read: Admiral Vos (No.8) is the speed and the market is treating him like the one who should do it. Dua Dance (No.3) and Turn It Up (No.4) are the main "if the favourite stumbles, here's your payout" options. Bodacious Kate (No.2) is priced for respect, but in a 5 runner, thin place setup, you're either on the right line or you're watching it from the fence.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Admiral Vos (No.8) — $1.50 / $1.05 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 45.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.87x
Why he has the speed to control the finish, and favourites on Soft 7 can still steam if they land rhythm
2. Dua Dance (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.7% | Place: 64.5% | Value: 1.41x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Turn It Up (No.4) — $4.10 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.95x
Why Short field, two places, thin divvies — the pool stays on the two bets that earn it. He's on the watch list.
Roughie: Bodacious Kate (No.2) — $20.75 / $4.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.5% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.78x
Why if she wins, it's the full script, all momentum has to swing her way from the jump
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so you need a horse that can keep finding under fatigue
Punty read: Jamaica Farewell (No.8) is my EW anchor. She's got the best blend of market attention and the right "keeps going" profile, and with a genuine tempo the midfield runners that can stick with the leaders start stacking up. Anaroa (No.3) is the place leverage play, because at this trip she can just sit close enough and then grind into the placings like a bloke who never got the memo that the race is over. Bonnie Gem (No.4) is the wildcard value sprinkle, but I prefer her as a watching chair today.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Jamaica Farewell (No.8) — $4.90 / $1.82 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$24.78
Prob 15.9% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why genuine pace should suit her, and each-way is perfect where the place finish looks live
2. Bonnie Gem (No.4) — $3.95 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.10x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Anaroa (No.3) — $6.80 / $2.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.94x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Rima Rua Toru (No.1) — $5.40 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why needs things to break perfectly, and I'm not funding that story when EW is already paying the rent
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 6,4,11 / 11,12,2 / 1,11,13 / 6,9,1 (81 combos x $0.25 = $20.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,5,9,1 / 3,1,7 / 8,4,3 / 8,1,4,9 (144 combos x $0.28 = $39.69) -- 28% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,11,13,10 / 6,9,1,3 / 4,5,9,1 / 3,1,7,9 / 8,4 / 8,1,4,9 (2048 combos x $0.00244 = $5.00) -- 0.24% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Prominere (Race 1, No.6)✗ — $2.46
2 - Fiamma (Race 2, No.11)✓ Won — $2.75
3 - Unswayed (Race 3, No.1) — $2.72
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
PUNTY EARLY MAIL, Taupo (2026-09-11)
Rightio Loose Units, Taupo on a Soft 7 with the rail out and the track doing that wet-fingers-on-a-bicycle-skill thing. This is the sort of meeting where you see one runner get brave on the corner and everyone else starts bargaining with the heavens at the top of the straight.
The speed is there, then it's not, then it's suddenly there again. So my job is simple, back the horses that can travel through the slop and still lift when the others start getting steamed. I'm putting the spine through three legit chances, then letting the chaos do what chaos does, win you money or teach you a lesson.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Taupo, 1100m to 1800m card
Rail: Out 5m
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play Fairly to On-Pace, but with plenty of runners running on)
Weather: Cloudy (watch for tempo staying sticky early, and don't expect big late dashes from too far back)
Early lane guess: Tight early, then open slop chaos later
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate start, with races that can turn into a bit of a slog where positioning matters more than heroics
Jockeys to follow:
George Rooke: loads of small wins and place finishes, good for steering through traffic
Michael Mc Nab: comfortable on his home tracks, tends to keep his horses in the fight
Jasmine Fawcett: gets them organised in the wet, often better when the field spreads
Stables to respect:
S & K Alexander (6 runners): they bring the sharp ones early, and when they've got a bet they stick it out
L O'sullivan & A Scott (4 runners): smart with Maiden targets, their horses usually lift in the right moment
Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson (2 runners): strong forward intent, especially first-up when the market takes notice
Punty's take: Taupo Soft 7 is a weird beast. The front runners do not get gifted, they get punished then rewarded. If you're too far back you start doing extra laps in your head, and by the time you're peeling wide, the track has already written your redemption arc.
Race 1 is a Maiden at 1800m, so I want the sort that can sit close without burning. Prominere looks like the one who will do the job, while The Darzi is the danger, steady and ugly, the best kind. Then we roll into Race 2 where Fiamma should be the classier, cleaner profile type.
Race 3 at 1400m feels like the "one of these has to win" puzzle, and I'm landing on Unswayed to do it, with Scrittore as the value place headache. After that, it's a lot of short-form Maiden stuff where positioning and a decent turn of foot wins more often than "pure bravery".
What it means for you: Be aggressive on the short-priced winners I've lined up, because Soft 7 plus Maiden races can flip fast, and you don't want to be chasing late. For place and each way, you're buying safety because these races are often won by the horse who just lands the best trip, not necessarily the best talent in the yard.
My game plan is: attack early, protect through place, and don't go gambling hero in the exotics unless the race shape supports it. If you want entertainment too, the lanes are set for coverage, but the spine is where the real money hunting is at.