Friday, 19 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1225m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Somersault and Tagamate are the speed influences, with Calexpo and Bradford sitting close enough to matter
Punty read: This looks like a race where the on-pacers can get their noses in front and make the backmarkers earn every inch. Somersault is the obvious anchor, but Tagamate and Calexpo aren't the sort you toss on a wet track just because the price gets cute. Eton Affair has had market love, but the drift on Tagamate is a bit of a snag and you can smell the uncertainty in the ring. If you're expecting a picnic, wrong beach, mate, this is a mud pit and a half.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Somersault (No.8) — $2.78 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$27.00
Prob 27.9% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.11x
Why The one with the right map, the right pace profile and the right rider to keep him out of trouble. If he handles the Heavy 9, he's the horse they all have to run down.
2. Tagamate (No.6) — $3.68 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 23.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.73x
Why Honest, tough and maps in the race, but the betting shape says the juice is already gone. Still a player if the front-runners get too brave.
3. Calexpo (No.3) — $5.35 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.23x
Why First-time gear and a couple of nice jumpout looks make him interesting if the track turns into a horses-for-courses test rather than a pure speed contest.
Roughie: Bjorson (No.1) — $31.00 / $6.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.8% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 0.53x
Why Needs to find something he hasn't shown yet, but the inside draw and the wet can throw weird results up in a maiden. Absolute each-way lottery ticket stuff.
Race type: Maiden, 1125m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Fast Freddie, Vixen Vibes and a few others can lob close enough to make this a tactical scrap
Punty read: This is the sort of maiden where the blinkers come out, the cross-over nosebands go on, and everyone suddenly starts pretending their horse is the next Black Caviar. Fast Freddie has the class edge, but that wide gate makes him earn it. Celestial Blue has been heavily backed and is the one the ring has latched onto, while Lilac Storm and She Got Me Again have enough late juice to sneak into the exotics if the leaders go to sleep. It's a proper scratch-and-sniff race: on paper it looks ordinary, but it can pay if one of the market movers actually delivers.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Fast Freddie (No.3) — $5.25 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$39.15
Prob 14.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.87x
Why Blinkers first time from a stable that knows how to ready one, and even from a tricky draw he looks the horse with the most upside if the race stays a tactical crawl.
2. Gold Chalice (No.4) — $5.25 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.92x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Explosive Magic (No.18) — $7.95 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 11.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.82x
Why This is the sort of race where a mid-pack runner can sneak into the frame if the pace turns into a snooze-fest. Place play only, no heroics.
Roughie: Vixen Vibes (No.15) — $10.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.86x
Why The pace map gives her a sniff if the leaders stack up, and on a slow-run maiden that can be enough to get her into the minors. Not the prettiest bet, but this is not a pretty race.
Race type: Group 3, 1425m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Pray Tell holds the aces, De Ascot gets the good draw, and Shades Of Stardom is the one with the stalking role
Punty read: This is the race where the favourite is short enough to make you swallow hard, but he also looks the right horse. Pray Tell found the line on debut and the heavy ground shouldn't bother him one bit. De Ascot has been heavily backed and the market knows a fair bit about him, while Shades Of Stardom is the blowout chance if the pace turns messy and he gets the right lane. The others need a couple of miracles and a priest.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Pray Tell (No.3) — $1.26 / $1.07 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 51.3% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.74x
Why Class horse, right draw, right conditions. He's the one you anchor the day around, even if the price has already had the band-aids slapped on.
2. De Ascot (No.1) — $5.60 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.50
Prob 20.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.34x
Why Heavy market support and a good gate in a race that could become a crawl. If the favourite gets softened up or finds traffic, this bloke is the one who can make it interesting.
3. Shades Of Stardom (No.4) — $11.75 / $2.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.63x
Why Has excuses in the locker and enough wet-track form to be a sneaky bastard if they go no gallop.
Roughie: Think About Her (No.8) — $24.00 / $3.90 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why The roughie path is simple: get the right sit, let the race collapse a touch, and pounce late. Not glamorous, but this is how you nick place money in a slog.
Race type: Maiden, 1425m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; French Gift controls the race shape, Aqua Storm gets the perfect stalking run, and Zetheros is the main place danger
Punty read: French Gift has been crunched like a packet of Shapes in the ring, and you can see why, he maps beautifully and the field doesn't exactly scream "champions in waiting". Aqua Storm is rock-solid from barrier 2, but the place price is skinny enough to make the bookies feel smug. Zetheros is the one with the cleanest saver profile, while Allumeuse needs the right sort of sucker-punch race shape to get involved. This is a map race, not a charisma contest.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. French Gift (No.5) — $2.18 / $1.17 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 44.2% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.34x
Why He's the one with the best map, the strongest market steam and the kind of profile that wins these ugly maidens when the tempo is soft.
2. Aqua Storm (No.2) — $3.28 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.1% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.27x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Zetheros (No.8) — $4.75 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.41
Prob 17.8% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why The one to keep honest if the leaders crawl and the race becomes a sprint home from the bend.
Roughie: Allumeuse (No.1) — $10.75 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.68x
Why Can box seat and nick a slice if the others faff around. More of a place thief than a winner, but that's how these races can bite you.
Race type: Benchmark 62, 1425m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Eleanor Dumont and the on-pacers should get the first shot, with Dobkins needing luck from the car park
Punty read: Eleanor Dumont has drifted, which gives the ring a bit of a wobble, but the form and the pattern say she's still the one to beat. Dobkins is the rough old value player: wide gate, decent form, and enough wet-track ability to annoy the favourite backers. Sotomayor is a live danger if the on-speed brigade does the old "set and forget" routine, while World Action is the sneaky little overlay that could bob up if the tempo gets honest. This one's a proper punting puzzle, not just a photo on the fridge.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Eleanor Dumont (No.1) — $4.35 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.50 Each Way ($7.25W + $7.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$30.09
Prob 21.4% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.08x
Why She's got the form, the distance box ticked and the right sort of second-up profile to overcome the drift if she travels like she should.
2. Arizona Luck (No.11) — $4.90 / $1.80 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.77x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dobkins (No.4) — $11.25 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 10.9% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 1.43x
Why The roughie with proper upside if the wide gate doesn't turn him into a hostage. Good enough to be in the finish and cheap enough to tempt you.
Roughie: Sotomayor (No.6) — $10.25 / $3.10 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.40x
Why If the on-speed brigade overdoes it, he's the kind of horse that can be rolling over the top when the leaders start looking at their feet.
Race type: BM66, 2440m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Thurmond gets the cushy pace advantage, while Ferago, Genrichero and the rest have to grind through the muck
Punty read: Staying races on a Heavy 9 are where the brave get rewarded and the cocky get humbled. Omamori is the official danger, but the real value lives with Genrichero, Dealt and Ferago, horses that can keep themselves in the race while everyone else is stuck trying to breathe through mud. Thurmond has the best map and that can matter a ton over 2440m if the tempo turns into a dawdle. This is not a race to be a hero in; it's a race to respect the slop and keep your wallet zipped.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Omamori (No.8) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$0.85
Prob 12.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.76x
Why He's the safest-looking runner in a race where safe is a relative term. The map is fine, the race shape is fine, and that's often enough in a staying slog.
2. Genrichero (No.6) — $9.75 / $3.10 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.20x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dealt (No.14) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.24x
Why Light enough to be a genuine nuisance, but the map and the marathon trip make him more of a collector than a killer.
Roughie: Ferago (No.1) — $13.75 / $3.50 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.44x
Why Hard fit and better than his price says if the heavy ground turns into a proper war of attrition. He's the sort that can keep grinding when others are done.
Race type: BM62, 1733m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Champagne Jenni and Amphactor hold the key positions, with Ceremonious and Fyreline needing the right roll
Punty read: This one's a little more tactical than the last few, and that usually means the horse with the cleanest spot wins the argument. Champagne Jenni is the one the market likes, Amphactor is the best value in the race, and Ceremonious has the sort of profile that says "don't ignore me just because the ring's had a sook." Fyreline gets the map rubbed the wrong way, so he'll need the race to fall apart a bit. It's the sort of race where a horse can look gorgeous at the 600 and then get buried like a bad sequel.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Champagne Jenni (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.85 🏆 11TH
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 17.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why Good on pace, good enough form, and the map says she gets every chance to stalk and strike. Not a gift, but a very workable anchor.
2. Amphactor (No.3) — $7.20 / $2.35 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.31x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Ceremonious (No.7) — $10.75 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$18.60
Prob 9.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.28x
Why Has the kind of profile that can run into the placings if the on-pacers overcook it and the track starts favouring the outer lanes.
Roughie: Fyreline (No.5) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why The map is against him a touch, but if the race turns into a sit-and-sprint and he gets the right seams, he can still bob up.
Race type: Handicap, 1225m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Whiskey Joe rolls forward, Kagemusha has the draw problem, and the closers are licking their chops
Punty read: This is the one race on the card where the motor runs hot. Whiskey Joe can lead, but he's not going to get a free night out if the others apply any pressure at all. Riproar is the value mover, Impending War is the sneaky late swooper, and Volatile is the sort of price that makes you stare at the screen twice and say "you've got to be kidding". This is where the race can get ripped apart and the swoopers can come flying like they've just found the last train home.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Whiskey Joe (No.11) — $3.23 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 21.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.84x
Why The leader in the speed race and still the horse they have to run down. If he controls the fractions, he can make a lot of punters look stupid in a hurry.
2. Kagemusha (No.2) — $6.85 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Riproar (No.4) — $8.40 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.37x
Why The value runner in the race and the one I'd want if the speed pressure bites late. Perfect sort of horse to launch into it when the leaders start coughing.
Roughie: Impending War (No.1) — $9.50 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.08x
Why If the leaders go too hard, he's the late menace that can ruin a few multis and make the crowd groan into their chips.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 8,6,3 / 3,4,18,15 / 3,1,4 / 5,2,8,1 (144 combos x $0.24 = $35.00) -- 24% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,11,6,4 / 8,14,6,1 / 1,3,7,5 / 11,2,4,1 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3 / 5 / 1 / 8 / 1 / 11 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Pray Tell (Race 3, No.3)✗ — $1.26
2 - French Gift (Race 4, No.5) — $2.18
3 - Eleanor Dumont (Race 5, No.1)✓ Won — $4.35
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Geelong's a filthy Heavy 9 with showers, gusts and the rail out 6m, so this is less a horse race and more a boggy street fight with silks on. You're not looking for pretty here, you're looking for horses that can handle the slop, hold a position, and not turn into a paddock statue at the furlong pole.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Geelong, 1225m-2440m card
Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit
Official going: Heavy 9 (expected to play testing and a bit rail-safe early)
Weather: Showers, 13°C, humidity 75%, wind 24km/h N (watch for gusts and a chop-up late)
Early lane guess: Middle-to-inside with cover; backmarkers need luck, not prayers
Tempo profile: Mostly moderate to slow through the card, with Race 8 the only genuine tear-up tempo
Jockeys to follow:
Jordan Childs, gets the key steer on Somersault and Whiskey Joe, and when he lands a horse in the right map spot he's a bloody nuisance to the rest of them
Damien Thornton, aboard French Gift and De Ascot, both heavily involved in the day's main shapes and market action
Brad Rawiller, rides Tagamate, Amphactor and Ferago; a handy hoop when the race turns into a slog and timing matters
Stables to respect:
M Price & M Kent Jnr (4 runners), De Ascot, Eleanor Dumont, Boom Boss and Whiskey Joe; plenty of live looks and the market is already sniffing around
A & S Freedman (3 runners), Fast Freddie, Pray Tell and Kagemusha; the sort of team that can pinch a maiden or three when the conditions are grim
M M Laurie (3 runners), Sotomayor, Genrichero and Staunch; not flashy, but they've got live runners in the races where stamina and map matter
Punty's take: This card screams patience. A Heavy 9 at Geelong with the rail out is the sort of setup where the early races can become a procession if nobody wants to roll forward, then suddenly a swooper gets a gap and the whole race looks like a hostage situation. Race 3 is the class act, Race 4 is the best map race, and Race 8 is the only one likely to turn into a proper speed duel. The rest? Plenty of chances for some poor bastard to get bailed up on the fence and make a shape with his hands at the stewards.
There's also a fair bit of market heat around the obvious types, French Gift, De Ascot, Eleanor Dumont, Ferago, Whiskey Joe, but don't just follow the money like it's the last tram out of town. Some of those are short enough to make your teeth itch. The value lives in the runners that can either control the race or at least sit close enough to strike when the track starts to get tacky and ugly.
What it means for you: Be firmer in the short-pair and clear-map races, and don't go overboard in the chaos legs just because the names sound sexy. Race 3 and Race 4 are your banker-ish anchor points; Race 2, Race 5, Race 6, Race 7 and Race 8 are where you protect a bit and let the numbers do the talking. On a day like this, the smart money isn't trying to be a hero in every race, it's building around the horses that can handle the muck, then letting the roughies fight over the scraps.
If you're playing exotics, keep the short lanes tight and respect the slog races. If you're playing singles, you want the ones with the clean map, the proven wet-track chops and the right jockey in the right spot. This isn't a day to go full pirate ship with every runner in the book, it's a day to punch on with the right ones and let the rest of the card eat itself.