For all of Punty's tips for Hobart, head to https://punty.ai/tips/hobart-2026-08-19

Rightio Loose Units, Hobart under a Soft 5 with the rail jammed out +6m, this is one of those meetings where the "good run" is made in the last 200m, and the rest is just jockeys trying to get clear room without wrecking their horses. The wind's got a bit of a tail up the straight, so closers get a free hit, and if you're parked too wide too early, you're gonna be walking home with sore legs and sore bank accounts.

Let's get into it race-by-race, then I'll give you the Big 3 spine I'm riding and the sequence lanes for the degenerates who like their quaddies with a side of sweat. I'm not saying you'll win every race, but I am saying you'll see a heap of value shots lined up where the map and the market line up, and where they don't, we're at least covering the right type of trouble.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Hobart, 1100m to 2400m card
Rail: +6m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Speed vs Clarity, more closers able to hang on)
Weather: Shower or two, 8°C, humidity 86%, wind 20km/h NNW, gusts 24.1km/h, feels like 4.9°C (watch for late rain, it helps the runner finishing a touch earlier and the swoopers getting a drag through)
Early lane guess: Outside lanes can be okay early if they get momentum, but clear room still wins races
Tempo profile: Slow to genuine in parts, Soft 5 means the sprint is longer, and the last 1 turn is where it gets decided
Jockeys to follow:
Luke P Dempsey: He's stitching rides together today, and when he's on a horse that maps forward, they generally get the job done.
Anthony Darmanin: When the race shape suits, he's deadly, and he lands on the right tempo more often than your mate lands his bets.
Christopher Pang: The closer type, especially when the track's giving you those final 100m opportunities.
Stables to respect:
S Gandy (11 runners): Consistent tempo management on Soft surfaces, and he's got a few horses that look like they'll be in the right part of the field.
J K Blacker (10 runners): Keeps them progressing and often hits the right gear and intent for these lower-class meets.
P A Hill (7 runners): When he upgrades something for a specific day, it usually shows in the way they run through the line.

Punty's take: Soft 5 at Hobart with the rail out +6m is basically a "save something for the finish" track. The early speed can still do work, but only the horses who get a clean run do it, and the ones who are stuck mid pack will be doing their best impression of a car that ran out of petrol at the lights. I'm leaning into races where the map is clear and the market isn't too chaotic.

You'll see my Big 3 spine go after the obvious class and race-shape leaders, then sprinkle value where the track lets you make ground late. The fun part is the sequence lanes, because if one race goes weird, you'll get a chance to bully the dividends, but you'll also taste the pain if you go too wide in the wrong legs.

What it means for you: Aggression today is simple, back the horses that can hold position or lead without being trapped, and you can be a bit braver with Place. The Win market is harsher on Soft 5, especially in races where the field's full of "maybe I find clear air at 300m" fantasies.

Where I'm pushing you to be smart is in the lanes. Early Quaddie and Quaddie are built to catch the right winners, but Big 6 is your entertainment ticket. If you're playing it, do it because you want chaos, not because you think it's insurance.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

This is the spine. Keep it clean, keep it simple, and let the finish line do the talking.

1 - Regal Hunter (Race 1, No.3) — $2.00
Why Maps into the race tempo, and the horse is more capable than the recent noise says.

2 - Tsuyoi Kitsune (Race 2, No.10) — $3.00
Why Proper sprint style on Soft 5, and the winkers first time is the type of tweak that can sharpen a debut run into a win.

3 - Vinraam (Race 4, No.6) — $1.91
Why This is the "gets to the front and holds the advantage" type, and Soft suits horses that can keep finding without blowing out.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~8.00 = ~$80.00 collect

Race 1 – TRC Life Member Kevin Sharkie Plate (C1)

Race type: C1, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so it's a long build and the final kick matters more than usual on Soft 5
Punty read: Regal Hunter looks like the stabiliser of the race, not the flash. Honest Warrior and Them's The Breaks can both fill positions, but on a slow 2100m you want the runner who can sit close enough to pounce when the sprint switches on. Last Tremble drifting out is a worry, Wet 'n' Dry is a massive price and I'm treating it as a "complete chaos" option only, and White Star Suzie is the sort who could run on if the race turns into a sprint late.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Regal Hunter (No.3) — $2.00 / $1.57
Bet $15.00 Win, return $30.00
Prob 36.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why He's the most race-shape aligned in a slow affair, and he should get the sit-trip into a real finishing battle.

2. Them's The Breaks (No.5) — $2.34 / $1.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.8% | Place: 61.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.

3. Honest Warrior (No.2) — $2.38 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 48.0% | Value: 0.76x
Why Honest enough, but this is more "place if you must" territory than "win and save the day" territory.

Roughie: White Star Suzie (No.7) — $16.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.7% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.93x
Why Roughie path is real if the speed falls apart late and she gets a clear lane in the last stretch.

Race 2 – Winning Edge Presentations Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, sprint intensity ramps up early, then it's about quick acceleration
Punty read: Tsuyoi Kitsune is the one I want on my ticket here, because at 1100m on Soft 5 you need a runner who can nail the timing and not get swallowed. Alfarino's blinkers off and visors on is a legit "fix the head" move, Steel Spaniel is the interesting place watch, but the real story is about who gets to the front early enough and then keeps powering through the mud. Spark Of Fire and Ceeya Sunshine are too many question marks for me at current prices.

Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)

1. Tsuyoi Kitsune (No.10) — $3.00 / $1.45
Bet $20.00 Win, return $60.00
Prob 22.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.24x
Why Proper on-pace sprint profile, and winkers first time often turns "okay" into "go time".

2. Alfarino (No.1) — $4.10 / $1.72
Bet $4.00 Place, return $6.88
Prob 15.5% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.30x
Why He's got the right kind of form shape for a Soft 5 sprint, and the headgear upgrade makes sense.

3. Steel Spaniel (No.13) — $7.20 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 1.16x
Why If he's not too far back, he can clunk into a finish, but I'm not loving the place pricing band.

Roughie: Annie's Pride (No.11) — $9.20 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.14x
Why The roughie angle is just that she can muscle into the minor money if the inside runs out of excuses.

Race 3 – TRC Life Member Ron Brooks Hcp (C5)

Race type: C5, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, leaders set a tempo and it becomes a class test
Punty read: Garcon D'espoir and Southern Auroras are your two "on pace" engines, and Kakia is the type who can sit handy and pounce when the sprint gets real. Coastal Strike is a leader who can hang in, but Geegee Strawberry is backmarker value only and Tassie Power is a touch shaky given the way the race has been playing. On Soft 5, the winner is often the one who can keep applying pressure without getting dropped into no-man's-land.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Garcon D'espoir (No.1) — $2.02 / $1.32
Bet $15.00 Win, return $30.30
Prob 28.9% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.77x
Why Front pressure and a strong 1400m build, plus the gear is doing something positive early.

2. Southern Auroras (No.3) — $3.65 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.5% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.27x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.

3. Kakia (No.2) — $5.95 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.00x
Why Good for the top end of the placings, but the win feels more dependent on the right trip.

Roughie: Coastal Strike (No.6) — $10.80 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.46x
Why Roughie if the leaders sustain too long, then he bursts late and steals it like a magician pulling a rabbit out of a hat.

Race 4 – Aviso TAS Insurance Brokers Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the winner often comes from the "sit just off the speed, then keep accelerating" gang
Punty read: Vinraam is the obvious class and race-shape pick. Upheaval has place value if the front runners soften their grip, Unfiltered is a threat for a minor finish, and Windara Rock It is the one rougher of the bunch if the tempo turns sloppy. On Soft 5, 1400m is where maiden horses either learn to do the job or they get exposed.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Vinraam (No.6) — $1.91 / $1.17
Bet $13.00 Win, return $24.83
Prob 43.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why If he's given a clear, on pace trip, he's the "too good late" type.

2. Upheaval (No.5) — $9.15 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.12x
Why A real chance — but at $2.80 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.

3. Unfiltered (No.4) — $7.50 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.63x
Why Uses ground and finds a bit, but the win is a stretch.

Roughie: Windara Rock It (No.7) — $10.30 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 29.5% | Value: 1.40x
Why Roughie only if he lands the right spot early and then tips out at the right time.

Race 5 – Vale Nigel Schuuring Hcp

Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so it turns into a longer finish, more room for horses who can sustain
Punty read: Blonde Star is the one I trust most to get the right trip without needing miracles. Sushi Express is the market favourite type but I still prefer the value direction if the pace is controlled. Rubbleonthedouble is the honest third runner for placings and Fighting Floyd can sniff an upset if the speed collapses in front. Flossing is the roughie who only comes in when it all falls apart. This is the race where you can get burnt backing "most likely" if you don't respect how Soft 5 changes timing.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Blonde Star (No.1) — $4.05 / $1.95
Bet $15.00 Win, return $60.75
Prob 25.1% | Place: 55.8% | Value: 1.31x
Why The staying power through Soft 5 suits him, and his trip should set up his finish.

2. Sushi Express (No.2) — $2.92 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.87x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.

3. Rubbleonthedouble (No.5) — $3.65 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 47.7% | Value: 0.94x
Why He can run a big race if the pace gives him a run, but this is more support than main event.

Roughie: Flossing (No.6) — $14.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.92x
Why The only way he wins is chaos and a late sprint window opening like the door in a heist movie.

Race 6 – Olive Tree Catering (Bm66)

Race type: Benchmark 66, 2400m
Map & tempo: Staying test, slow build, then the real grind starts at the 200m mark
Punty read: Merlin Beach is the go-to. Native Clan is the one who keeps earning through the line and can park close enough. Happy Clan is there for the run, but Alpine Trout has the value if they start stepping up late and the speed drops off. This is a race where jockey decisions on positioning matter more than usual, because wrong spots get punished in Soft 5.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Merlin Beach (No.3) — $2.72 / $1.22
Bet $10.00 Win, return $27.20
Prob 28.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why He's built for this 2400m slog, and Soft conditions suit the horses who can keep moving without fading.

2. Native Clan (No.4) — $4.05 / $1.52
Bet $5.00 Place, return $7.60
Prob 21.9% | Place: 67.5% | Value: 1.17x
Why Strong chance to hit the minor money with his consistent staying effort, and he can be there when the race opens.

3. Happy Clan (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 62.1% | Value: 0.84x
Why Capable of running a race, just not where I want to park money in the place band.

Roughie: Alpine Trout (No.5) — $10.10 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why Roughie because the price says it, and the Soft 5 staying conditions give him a real late run path.

Race 7 – Mingari+Co (Bm68)

Race type: Benchmark 68, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, this is sprint psychology, position and timing are everything
Punty read: Geegees Missile is the one I want on top. The whole race is built around on pace pressure, so if you're off the leaders for too long, you're spending the last 100m just trying to survive. Sky Land and Cool Heart are the best stalking threats, Alpine Thunder is the rougher for when the race stretches. Billie The Great can run into a spot if she's not shuffled back too far.

Top 3 + Roughie ($23.00 pool)

1. Geegees Missile (No.4) — $2.92 / $1.45
Bet $19.50 Win, return $56.94
Prob 28.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why On pace and in a race that rewards pressure, he's the "get there and hold on" type.

2. Sky Land (No.5) — $4.75 / $1.80
Bet $3.50 Place, return $6.30
Prob 13.1% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.85x
Why He can take a breath in front or just off it, and the Soft 5 gives him a chance to keep running.

3. Cool Heart (No.7) — $6.20 / $2.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.10x
Why Worth consideration, but the place band needs to be right, and it isn't for this one.

Roughie: Alpine Thunder (No.3) — $9.40 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 0.87x
Why You're buying the "stuck in the right spot, then finish hard" scenario.

Race 8 – Ladbrokes Switch Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but Soft 5 means the sprint finishes longer and wide runners are dangerous
Punty read: Fuel On The Fire is the market anchor for a reason, but I love the way Snowdonia shapes up as a finishing threat in this exact setup. Nandi Clan is a live place possibility. Rippington is the one for a sneaky minor result, Savage River and Fierce 'n Fabulous are the sort of horses who can pop into the frame if the race chops up. Alpine Honey is for the lottery ticket crowd only.

Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)

1. Fuel On The Fire (No.1) — $1.86 / $1.37
Bet $14.00 Win, return $26.04
Prob 28.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.93x
Why Sharp early speed profile, and on Soft 5 the horses who can control the rhythm have a real edge.

2. Snowdonia (No.7) — $3.31 / $2.00
Bet $5.00 Place, return $10.00
Prob 20.8% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.20x
Why The value is in the place side, she's got the finishing engine for a late sprint longer than usual.

3. Nandi Clan (No.6) — $2.81 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.78x
Why He's capable, but I'm not in love with the economics for backing it for minors.

Roughie: Rippington (No.4) — $12.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 1.44x
Why Roughie path is clear air and a scramble late, then he grabs the cash.

Race 9 – Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so it's a quick dash and spacing matters early
Punty read: Geegees Mercedes is the on-paper leader and I'm respecting the on pace map and soft running style. Geegeeschaser is the type who can pressure and keep going, Miss Lyra is the value place watch, Celestial Glow is the roughie when the tempo goes weird. Dennyson and I'm A Machine are the "if the race breaks right" runners.

Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)

1. Geegees Mercedes (No.4) — $2.31 / $1.62
Bet $20.00 Win, return $46.20
Prob 23.7% | Place: 61.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why He's got the best race shape on a short sprint, and the pace profile suits him perfectly.

2. Geegeeschaser (No.8) — $2.86 / $1.85
Bet $4.00 Place, return $7.40
Prob 16.2% | Place: 37.8% | Value: 0.77x
Why If he holds a spot near the speed, he's there for minor money and probably a chunk of the finish.

3. Miss Lyra (No.5) — $6.95 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.20x
Why Better as a place threat than a main back, but the band isn't paying enough to get fancy.

Roughie: Celestial Glow (No.10) — $9.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.15x
Why The roughie idea is timing, if the pace cooks early he can run through gaps late.

Race 10 – Graham Family Funerals (Bm68)

Race type: Benchmark 68, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but Soft 5 makes it a tactical 1600 where positioning into the corner is everything
Punty read: Coal River is the most "steady" on-paper play, Henley Extreme is the value in the pocket, and Just A Needs is a live contender if the race doesn't get too hard early. Thisismyturf can get into the minor spots, Johnnie Pinch is a threat if he gets cover and doesn't get bottled up. The Spirit Of Zero is the roughie route, more for trifecta chaos types than disciplined punts.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Coal River (No.1) — $4.30 / $1.65
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), return $22.57 (wins) / $8.66 (places)
Prob 17.6% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.99x
Why Soft conditions and his staying style fit, and barrier 1 gives him the best shot at a controlled trip.

2. Henley Extreme (No.6) — $4.65 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.02x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. Just A Needs (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 62.4% | Value: 1.03x
Why He's got the form to feature, but I'm keeping it tight to avoid overpaying for minors.

Roughie: The Spirit Of Zero (No.3) — $10.25 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.01x
Why The win path is a soft run with cover, then he finds space late. If he does, you'll pretend you always backed him.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R3–R6)

Smart: 3,1,2 / 6,5,4,7 / 1,5,2 / 3,4,2,5 (144 combos x $0.24 = $35.00) -- 24% flexi
Punty's take: R3 and R5 are the anchors, R4 and R6 are the messy legs, so it's "hit one of the wider plays and you're back in it" energy.

QUADDIE (R7–R10)

Smart: 4,5,7,3 / 1,6,7,4 / 4,8,5,10 / 2,6,1,3 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.00) -- 14% flexi
Punty's take: Too many legs are open races, but that's why we've got the flexi, the prize is only alive if one of the mid-priced winners pops.

BIG 6 (R5–R10)

Smart: 1 / 3 / 4 / 1 / 4 / 1 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
Punty's take: This is a single-combo prayer, mostly for laughs and bragging rights if the universe's in a good mood.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Soft 5, longer sprint effect
When the wind tail helps closers, the last 200m is where the real sorting happens, so race shape matters more than "best recent time".

2 - Look for the sit-and-pounce trips
In the slower-tempo races over 1400m and 2100m, the winners tend to be the ones who can be close enough to strike, without being parked like a tradie's ute blocking the driveway.

3 - Market support is loud in the sprints
When a horse firms hard into a Soft sprint, it's usually because they've got the head and the timing right. Don't overthink those ones, just respect the intent.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Alright legends, Hobart on a Soft 5 is basically a tug-of-war match with the last rope. Back the leaders you trust, place the ones that can sprint late, and if you chase a roughie, do it with a plan, not vibes. See you at the bar after the hit. Gamble Responsibly.