Wednesday, 19 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Class 1, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, backmarkers can sneak into it late if the pace doesn't tighten too early
Punty read: It's a slow-poke 2100m where the leaders don't really get to sprint away, they just get to set the tempo. Them's The Breaks looks like the "in the right zone at the right time" horse, Regal Hunter and Honest Warrior are the sensible types, and the one danger is that this sort of Soft 5 can turn into a weird run-on race where everyone's still galloping at the line.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Them's The Breaks (No.5) — $2.38 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 34.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.05x
Why Backmarker who should get the softest run in the slow tempo, then pick them off late like a cat choosing the warmest lap.
2. Regal Hunter (No.3) — $2.59 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 37.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.87x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Honest Warrior (No.2) — $3.55 / $1.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.6% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.10x
Why Short field, two places, thin divvies — the pool stays on the two bets that earn it. He's on the watch list.
Roughie: White Star Suzie (No.7) — $24.50 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.1% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.65x
Why She's there for the "if chaos lands" storyline, but she needs everything to go right, no ifs, no maybes.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace-leaning setup with plenty of chances to get across
Punty read: This is a straight-up sprint where the horses that get position early can hold it, Soft 5 makes everyone cover ground and you don't want to be stuck spotting lanes too early. Tsuyoi Kitsune looks built for the Hobart finish, and Alfarino is the kind of horse that can land a spot if the race doesn't explode. Precious Illusion has value flavour, but at this level you want the ones that can actually control the rhythm.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Tsuyoi Kitsune (No.10) — $3.20 / $1.52 🏆 4TH
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 21.3% | Place: 65.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why Getting winkers for the sharp end, and with the pace not disappearing he's set to be in the firing line at the finish.
2. Alfarino (No.1) — $4.55 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.40
Prob 14.9% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.10x
Why Blinkers off and visors on first time, that's a "make him do the job" move, plus she should get a kinder trip in the Soft.
3. Precious Illusion (No.12) — $6.90 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.42x
Why The value screams, but the betting band for this lane has historically been a trap, so we watch instead.
Roughie: Steel Spaniel (No.13) — $9.45 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why Roughie path is there if the pace chops up, but my money stays stacked where the race setup fits.
Race type: Class 5, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, with on-pace leaders and a chance for stalkers to strike
Punty read: 1400m handicap means you're watching the leaders, but you're also watching who's getting good position without doing too much. Garcon D'espoir is your clean speed and consistency angle, Southern Auroras is a live value runner who should be in play, and Kakia looks like the sort to pop into the minor money if things get a bit crowded.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Garcon D'espoir (No.1) — $2.09 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 30.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.83x
Why Bandages up front, he's on the pace, and 1400m at this level often rewards the one who can keep working without getting shuffled.
2. Southern Auroras (No.3) — $3.25 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.8% | Place: 60.1% | Value: 1.18x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Kakia (No.2) — $6.45 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.13x
Why She can hit the line late, but her best shot is minor money if the pace is on.
Roughie: Geegee Strawberry (No.5) — $10.10 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 1.00x
Why Roughie swooper needs everything to fall in her favour, otherwise she's just another backmarker with a good haircut.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, on-pace pressure helps but Soft 5 stretches everything out
Punty read: This is where Hobart pays attention to who can hold position when everyone's grinding. Vinraam is the on-pace weapon, Unfiltered looks like the threat if he can stalk and time it, and Up To Tori is the "if they go wide early" danger. The rest are more "needing luck" than "expectation".
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Vinraam (No.6) — $2.00 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.00
Prob 43.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why He's been doing the right things on speed, and Soft 5 rewards those who can sustain rather than sprint then fold.
2. Unfiltered (No.4) — $6.80 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 36.2% | Value: 0.65x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Up To Tori (No.11) — $8.35 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 34.0% | Value: 0.72x
Why Solid effort type, but the lane for value isn't sitting right for us today.
Roughie: Windara Rock It (No.7) — $10.75 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.45x
Why Roughie wins if the pace drops away and he gets enough run to peel off late, but I'd rather keep the stake on Vinraam's clean strength.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, on-pacers can still win if they're positioned early
Punty read: Open class at 1600 on Soft 5, where you want either a proper on-pace ride or a horse that can travel and keep kicking. Sushi Express is the obvious speed and Fighting Floyd is the one to watch for cover and then a late charge. Rubbleonthedouble is value bait, the type that lands in the quinella and makes you grumble you didn't go harder.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Sushi Express (No.2) — $2.25 / $1.30 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 27.8% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.77x
Why On-pace, Soft 5 is fine for a runner who can keep engine room running, and he should get the perfect stalking position.
2. Rubbleonthedouble (No.5) — $4.30 / $2.05 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.9% | Place: 56.4% | Value: 1.27x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Fighting Floyd (No.4) — $5.45 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why He's got the right profile for a grind, but win-only staking doesn't suit the bet plan.
Roughie: Flossing (No.6) — $16.75 / $4.20 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.99x
Why Roughie route is almost comic, needs a chaos collapse and a perfect run off the back.
Race type: Benchmark 66, 2400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, this is all about who can keep rolling late when the field stretches
Punty read: Staying at 2400m on Soft 5 is where you stop asking "who's fastest" and start asking "who can still move at the 300m mark". Merlin Beach is the model pick and for good reason, he's built for this kind of grind. Happy Clan and Native Clan can run into it, especially if the race becomes a slow-motion train set.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Merlin Beach (No.3) — $2.94 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$19.40
Prob 25.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why Staying Soft 5 runner with a strong ability to keep finding, and the tempo suits horses that don't need a rocket.
2. Happy Clan (No.2) — $3.95 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 23.0% | Place: 62.4% | Value: 1.19x
Why Place bet is the move, she's got the right staying profile and won't be far off the action when the field strings out.
3. Native Clan (No.4) — $3.98 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.9% | Place: 67.9% | Value: 1.03x
Why He's live for a minor spot, but the bet plan doesn't pay enough for this slot today.
Roughie: Al Maximus (No.6) — $9.90 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 29.2% | Value: 1.11x
Why Needs the race to open up perfectly for him late, which is never guaranteed on a Soft 5 staying track.
Race type: Benchmark 68, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, sprint science, the front can win with a clear view
Punty read: This is a speed race. If you're not near the front in the first part, you're basically asking the horse to do overtime. Geegees Missile is the one with the pure on-pace map and he should make them chase. Sky Land is the main threat if they don't go too hard, Cool Heart is your "stalker who can nab a pocket" type, but the rest are more hope than plan.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Geegees Missile (No.4) — $1.72 / $1.05 🏆 2ND
Bet $19.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$19.50
Prob 41.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.94x
Why He's built for these honest sprints, on-pace from the right spot, and Soft 5 does less harm when you're still rolling.
2. Sky Land (No.5) — $4.08 / $1.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 21.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why Place bet because he can sit closer than the odds suggest and then keep fighting all the way up the straight.
3. Cool Heart (No.7) — $5.95 / $1.72 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 65.0% | Value: 0.96x
Why Could run a cheeky race, but the value lane on places isn't there.
Roughie: Alpine Thunder (No.3) — $9.35 / $2.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet $1.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.35
Prob 9.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.11x
Why Roughie wins if the leaders go too hard and he still finds enough, this is a race where staying powerful beats flash.
Race type: Class 1, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace-advantaged runner should get a soft run and then sprint late
Punty read: This is the sort of C1 where everyone wants to be close, but not everyone can hold position when Soft 5 takes the punch out of the action. Fuel On The Fire is the clear tempo pick, Nandi Clan is your value side who can get the right trip, and Snowdonia has the "if it turns into a messy lane" threat. Rippington is there too, but today we're backing the horses that match the story.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Fuel On The Fire (No.1) — $2.33 / $1.22 🏆 2ND
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 32.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why Pace advantaged, and Soft 5 loves a runner who can control and keep working, he's the obvious front-runner with legs.
2. Nandi Clan (No.6) — $4.95 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.75
Prob 18.1% | Place: 68.1% | Value: 1.18x
Why Place bet because she can land in the finish without needing to win the race, and the market attention suggests she's live.
3. Snowdonia (No.7) — $6.45 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why If she gets luck she's in the money, but we're not paying the premium for that kind of hope.
Roughie: Savage River (No.5) — $9.35 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why Roughie needs the race to break open and her to time it perfectly, which is possible but not the plan.
Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders in play, and 1200m means you can't be chasing late
Punty read: At 1200m in a C1, you either get the trip or you get the penalty. Geegees Mercedes is the big on-pace signal, Geegeeschaser has the consistency threat, and Miss Lyra can run into a pocket. Celestial Glow is the roughie with value in the background, but the main plan is locking the pace-and-position horses.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Geegees Mercedes (No.4) — $4.08 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 25.2% | Place: 65.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why On-pace and potent, and this is the kind of track where the runner who can keep grinding wins, even if they're not favourite.
2. Geegeeschaser (No.8) — $4.75 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 17.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.09x
Why He's close enough to strike and the Soft doesn't kill his rhythm, place bet makes sense for a live runner.
3. Miss Lyra (No.5) — $4.65 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.68x
Why She can show up, but she's short on the exact value fit for places.
Roughie: Celestial Glow (No.10) — $9.45 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why Roughie's path is a timing job in the right pocket, if she lands at the right moment she'll be tough, but I'm not paying the emotional tax today.
Race type: Benchmark 68, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, a bit of a tactical race where cover matters
Punty read: This one's for the gamblers who enjoy watching races unfold like a slow documentary. Coal River and Henley Extreme are the on-pace types who can sit handy, Just A Needs is the backmarker who can sneak into it if they slow down, and Thisismyturf is the one that might keep running. The Spirit Of Zero is your outsider if the race gets ugly, but the stable profile and map suit the top two.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Coal River (No.1) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$21.26
Prob 17.5% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.99x
Why Each way because he's been holding form near the front, and Soft 5 at 1600 rewards consistent rhythm.
2. Henley Extreme (No.6) — $4.15 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.90x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Just A Needs (No.2) — $4.95 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 63.2% | Value: 1.01x
Why Would be in if he lands the right trip, but the place band isn't screaming at us.
Roughie: The Spirit Of Zero (No.3) — $11.75 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.94x
Why Roughie needs interference-free luck and a late run off the back, which is always a big ask at this class.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,1,2 / 6,4,7,11 / 5,2,4 / 3,4,2,6 (144 combos x $0.24 = $35.00) -- 24% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,5,7,3 / 1,6,7,3,5 / 4,8,5 / 2,6,1,3 (240 combos x $0.15 = $35.00) -- 15% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2 / 3 / 4 / 1 / 4 / 1 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Them's The Breaks (Race 1, No.5)✗ — $2.38
2 - Vinraam (Race 4, No.6)✓ Won — $2.00
3 - Geegees Missile (Race 7, No.4)✗ — $1.72
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hobart on a Soft 5 where the track's holding onto every chance like a bloke clutching the last pie at half-time, and the rail's out +6m entire. It's one of those days where the "easy" money can get mugged by a sneaky run-on, but when the right pace gets rolling, the home straight turns into a bloody drag race.
My spine today is simple, three horses, three races, and three chances to put the kettle on early. Them's The Breaks in Race 1, Tsuyoi Kitsune in Race 2, and Vinraam in Race 4 are the main story, then we build the multi bridge with extra chaos where it's earned, not where it's wished.
Let the Soft 5 do what it does, make the sprint feel longer and the whole field feel like they're running through treacle, and watch closers get rewarded when the leaders think they've "done it". This place punishes lazy positioning. You either get cover, or you get cooked.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Hobart, 400m to 2400m range card
Rail: +6m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Run-on closers and on-pace types)
Weather: Shower or two, 11°C, gusts light (tailwind up the straight helps the finish, watch footing on the turns)
Early lane guess: Midfield to leaders, depends how quickly the slow pace gangs up
Tempo profile: Slow early, longer finishes, if they string it out you want the ones that can keep working late
Jockeys to follow:
Christopher Pang: Gets them home with his usual "I'll find the gap like I'm in a queue for bargains" approach.
Troy Baker: Pops up at the business end across multiple fields, especially when the run develops clean.
Anthony Darmanin: Reads the pace, times the move, and always seems to be in the right part of the track when it matters.
Stables to respect:
S Gandy (9 runners): The go-to outfit when the track turns into a grind, Fuel On The Fire type profiles.
J K Blacker (9 runners): Backing up with consistent runs, and has gear-and-ride combos that actually pop.
J F Luttrell (6 runners): When the switch in gear hits and they're ready to roll, he's got them primed.
Punty's take:
This meeting's pace story is "slow burn, then sprint again", Hobart on Soft 5 is basically a boxing match where everyone thinks they're safe, then round 4 starts and suddenly you're sweating. When the leaders can keep a rhythm, the on-pacers get rewarded hard, but when they start bunching, you want those that can sustain through the line, not ones that just look good for 300m.
Race 1 sets the vibe, with a small field and thin margins, Them's The Breaks looks like the one to be on because he's been landing placings and he's perfectly positioned for a two-step finish. Race 2 is where you grab the first proper hit, Tsuyoi Kitsune just has that "this is why you bring blinkers out" energy. Then Race 3 is a handicap slog, Race 4 is your Soft 5 value playground with Vinraam, and after that you start picking races like you're picking mates to ride out in a ute, only the ones with proven gears.
By the back end, Race 7 and Race 8 are where pace maps get real. If Geegees Missile gets his run, he's a one-way ticket. Fuel On The Fire in Race 8 is the classic "front and don't give them time to think" play, and Geegees Mercedes in Race 9 is the sort of horse that turns late luck into early advantage.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive where the track suits you and the map is clean. That's Race 1, Race 2, Race 4, Race 7, Race 8, Race 9, basically when the leaders can control the tempo and the on-pace horses can keep grinding. If the pace is genuine, you want those that can stay switched on, not the ones relying on a miracle from last.
Protect yourself in the slippery spots by using the top three picks where the bet type is stacked for place value, not random win hopes. The way I see it, Hobart rewards horses that can keep finding another gear, especially with a tailwind up the straight. So for the multi, stick to the horses you're actually backing to be there at the finish, not the ones you're hoping for a bit of luck in the straight.
Bet smart, drink water, and if you're chasing dividends, earn them with the spine first, then take your swings where the pace and gear say it's allowed.