Thursday, 15 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1965m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, the speed's advantaged for Shawnee Boy and Mizfawaz, but this turns into a backmarker grind where the right on-speed pockets still matter.
Punty read:
Chance De Lune looks like the one who can actually benefit from all that slow tempo without getting stuck in the wrong pocket. The excuses are legit as hell, interference at Eagle Farm and Ipswich, and when a horse keeps getting checked while still running around the mark, you don't throw it out, you wait for the clean trip. Barrier 1 gives him a chance to work across and not waste metres.
Blood Red has the "nearly there" vibe, and when the tote firms like that it's usually because connections want one of those sneaky runs that turns into a payday in the last 100m. But I'm taking the value and direction up top with Chance De Lune, then using Blood Red where you can get paid for consistency.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Chance De Lune (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$25.50
Prob 39.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.46x
Why Barrier 1, slow tempo suits him, and the recent form is way better than the finishing positions suggest.
2. Blood Red (No.1) — $4.80 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.7% | Place: 58.5% | Value: 1.21x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Aremkay (No.6) — $3.20 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.8% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.57x
Why Can run a place, but I'm not loving the value enough to carry the risk.
Roughie: Shawnee Boy (No.5) — $9.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.80x
Why He's the bomber from the back if the speed truly collapses, but he needs the right chaos.
Race type: Class 2, 1965m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, so the ones that can sit midfield without losing metres get the run, especially with no real early pressure.
Punty read:
Hot Majesty is the clear story here, he's got the map to hold a spot and the profile of a horse that can grind them down. The market's got him respected, and this is one of those longer races where being "just off" the leaders can be gold on a slow tempo.
Indamouse is the big danger if the race stays slow enough for him to find a straight run late. Slipsain is the third leg threat, but I'm not getting cute, Hot Majesty feels like the one who makes the others chase their tails.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Hot Majesty (No.1) — $2.40 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$21.00
Prob 42.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.21x
Why Map-friendly to sit handy, and the form reads like he's about to punch through.
2. Indamouse (No.2) — $2.90 / $1.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.95x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Slipsain (No.3) — $3.50 / $1.60 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.72x
Why Solid enough to run on, but he's not the one I want leading the ticket.
Roughie: Down Under Stunnah (No.5) — $6.00 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why Roughie only if the pattern goes weird, otherwise he's a chasing job.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, so on-pace runners get a chance to build momentum instead of getting trapped behind them.
Punty read:
Filthy is the bet. Simple. He's drawn to be on the go, he's got that "keeps showing up" profile, and the gear change (ear muffs on) says the stable wants him locked in from the jump.
Disparate is the value place angle too, because he's one of those types that can sit close enough and then still have something left when the pack gets busy. Plan Of Attack has blinkers again, so he can improve, but at this point I'd rather lean on the cleaner on-pacing runners.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Filthy (No.1) — $2.90 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 23.0% | Place: 53.4% | Value: 0.98x
Why On-pace, draws well for the pattern, and he's the sort that turns "promising" into "bolted in."
2. Disparate (No.6) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.14x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Plan Of Attack (No.10) — $7.50 / $2.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.80x
Why Could run well with the blinkers, but value isn't there for me.
Roughie: Maritimo (No.5) — $9.00 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.99x
Why Has to do it the hard way, roughie only if the on-pace crew gets collared late.
Race type: BENCHMARK 62, 1350m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, with on-pacers advantaged, and this is a race where getting to the right spots early is everything.
Punty read:
Suze Spritz is getting the right kind of attention, and you can see why. She's got on-pace credentials, she's been ticking along, and the recent run lines suggest she's close to a breakthrough. With Ed I Am also showing plenty of "I'll be there" traits, this is basically an inside battle between two horses that hate being beaten.
Divine Justice is the one who brings speed and can absolutely pinch it if they go too fast and get strung out. But I'm not stepping off Suze Spritz, she's got the best mix of pace and market heat.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Suze Spritz (No.4) — $4.60 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 25.2% | Place: 60.1% | Value: 1.42x
Why On-pace, strong place chances, and the way she's being targeted says she's not going to mess around.
2. Ed I Am (No.7) — $5.50 / $1.80 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.2% | Place: 48.3% | Value: 1.65x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Divine Justice (No.6) — $4.20 / $1.62 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 52.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why Short-ish and the value isn't there compared to the runner you're getting paid for.
Roughie: Everywhere (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 28.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why Needs luck, but on a day of pace shifting, sometimes luck lands in the weirdest place.
Race type: BENCHMARK 60, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, so it's a speed contest with a finish line, and if Night Market pounces at the right time, he's hard to run down.
Punty read:
This is Night Market's race to lose. He maps on-pacing, his style fits this kind of sprint where you can't save too much ground, and the market still treats him like he's the gun.
Final Voyage is the value swing, because he's got the bigger finishing gear and the each-way style profile. Rubydoo is the third wheel, capable of sneaking into the trifecta lane if the pace makes a mess of the field.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Night Market (No.9) — $2.00 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$10.50
Prob 38.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why He's the best mix of speed and control for the sprint tempo, and he's the one most likely to just keep rolling.
2. Final Voyage (No.8) — $6.50 / $2.05 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.29x
Why A real chance — but at $2.05 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Rubydoo (No.2) — $8.60 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.42x
Why Strong for place and can do more, but the bankroll needs protection.
Roughie: Crypto Miss (No.4) — $10.50 / $2.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.42x
Why Comes into it late if the speed tears itself apart, otherwise he's stuck doing the chase.
Race type: BENCHMARK 60, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, so the on-pacers and pocket runners are the ones who can actually take advantage.
Punty read:
Profiteur's Fil is the one I want for each-way. He's got the right kind of profile for this sprint distance, he can hold his position without needing miracles, and that should let him run into the money even if the front gets brave.
Odin's Mount is a serious danger because his run style suits this track, but he's more of a "if it goes wrong for Fil" sort of threat. Da Snoop Dog is interesting too, but that's the type of runner who needs a clean trip to turn it into a knockout punch.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)
1. Profiteur's Fil (No.14) — $4.50 / $1.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Each Way ($3.25W + $3.25P) — Cashed, net -$0.65
Prob 21.9% | Place: 52.2% | Value: 1.11x
Why Suits the genuine tempo, solid place credentials, and the EW price gives you an actual way to cash even if he doesn't win.
2. Odin's Mount (No.4) — $9.00 / $3.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.73x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Da Snoop Dog (No.9) — $3.90 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.69x
Why Too short relative to the win/value angle, and Fil is the better ticket shape.
Roughie: Treasurer (No.3) — $14.50 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 22.9% | Value: 0.94x
Why He's the "could run over the top" chance if the pace stutters and the race compresses late.
Race type: BENCHMARK 62, 1680m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, and at this distance you need to be in the right part of the track early so you're not finishing off a grief mission.
Punty read:
Valouri is my value lane, but I'm starting with the on-pace chess piece, The Torque Factor. He's the one who's built to control the tempo without needing a miracle, and at $1.63 it's clearly a horse people believe will be involved.
That said, this is where you want one who can sit in range and still have a kick, and Snugg is capable of that place payday. Valouri's chance is all about timing and having something left when the leaders start to feel the march.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. The Torque Factor (No.5) — $2.80 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.90
Prob 30.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why On-pace at distance with a pattern that suits, and he's built to take the fight up.
2. Valouri (No.13) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.1% | Place: 47.6% | Value: 1.25x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Snugg (No.10) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.05x
Why If the tempo suits and the back end doesn't sprint too hard, he can run home.
Roughie: Fifth Force (No.6) — $9.50 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.44x
Why Needs a bit of pace pressure up front, but when it lands, he's the type that can appear out of nowhere.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,6,7,8 / 9,8,2,4 / 14,4,9,3 / 5,13,10,6 (256 combos x $0.08 = $20.00) -- 8% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Chance De Lune (Race 1, No.2)✓ Won — $2.04
2 - Hot Majesty (Race 2, No.1)✓ Won — $2.66
3 - Night Market (Race 5, No.9)✓ Won — $1.53
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ipswich on a Good 4 with the rail +3 and the air doing the most, let's get stuck into it. This is one of those cards where the speed maps matter, because if you get held up at the wrong time you'll spend the back half doing interpretive dance instead of running.
I've built the day around a simple spine, Hot Majesty, Chance De Lune, and the little gremlin in Race 5, Night Market. If those three get home, you're laughing, and if one does something dumb, at least the quaddie lanes are stitched up to deal with it.
Punty's take:
Ipswich on a Good 4 with a modest rail bias means two things, leaders get first crack at the flag, and the ones sitting close can still take the sting out of it. The early tempo looks slow to moderate across the first few races, then the later middle-distance stuff gets more tactical. So yeah, pace matters, but we're also watching for horses that can lob handy without getting parked.
Market support is loud today. Suze Spritz and Ed I Am in Race 4 are getting hammered, Night Market in Race 5 is the obvious danger, and the late money in a couple of spots tells me punters aren't just whacking names on a ticket, they're seeing a run path. I'm leaning into the value where it's actually there, and skipping the "$80 for vibes" crew unless they've got a proper map story.
Alright, let's run it race-by-race and keep our eyes on the part of the track where dreams come to die, and value comes to live.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive early, then breathe. Race 1 and Race 2 have that "take the lead by the horns" feel, and Race 3 is a maiden where the on-pace runners are the ones that get clean air to do the damage.
For the quaddie, Race 4 to Race 7 is where you go from "sporting" to "proper sickness." I've got a few legs that are tight, then a couple that are wider because this track loves a surprise over the short sprint call. If you want the safest path, stick to the Big 3 + the ladder picks. If you want the chaos, join the Quaddie lanes and pray to the turf gods.