TOP PICKS ON THE MOVE — the picks on this card have shifted 3 times today on scratchings and market moves. Punty's staying nimble; treat this card with care.
Friday, 02 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: C1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Vortistar the leader, with a pace-disadvantage lean against the front-runner
Punty read: Geegees Mercedes looks like the "get the run" type on a day when 1200m trips can turn into a chop-fest. Vortistar is the speed source, but the way the tempo's reading makes it one of those races where being in front is good, but being in front and still vulnerable is better for the stalkers. If Geegees Mercedes lands in that on-pace pocket, she gets every chance to make it a short conversation at the line.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Geegees Mercedes (No.5) — $3.10 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 27.3% | Place: 59.8% | Value: 1.11x
Why She's been consistently placing on Soft, her speed profile fits the grind, and her on-pace style matches the leader's pressure.
2. Vortistar (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.12x
Why A real chance — but at $1.60 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Verhoeven (No.2) — $6.00 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x
Why She's got place credentials, but today's value route isn't there, so I'm treating her as a "respect, don't chase" number.
Roughie: Peak A Boom (No.8) — $19.00 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why She's the type to run on through a tiring field, and with Soft, late momentum can still win races even when the early lanes look crowded.
Race type: Bm60, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, leaders engaged early, pace advantaged Popilita and Wild Nights
Punty read: This one's all about speed control. Fluffy's Girl looks like she can hold her position and keep giving around the bend, which on a Soft 6 sprint can be the difference between "missed" and "hit the line". Brave Jet is the classic "right where you want him" sort, but if the track is playing true, Fluffy's Girl gets first crack at taking the race away from the chasing pack.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Fluffy's Girl (No.6) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 22.0% | Place: 54.3% | Value: 1.29x
Why She's got the pace to stay prominent and Soft track form that doesn't fall apart, plus the market's moved her into a "go time" zone.
2. Brave Jet (No.12) — $6.50 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 53.4% | Value: 1.08x
Why A real chance — but at $1.75 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. The Wizard King (No.4) — $5.50 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.01x
Why He's classy enough for the fight, but the map and field heat mean he needs things to break kindly.
Roughie: Geegeeschaser (No.11) — $9.00 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why The upside is real if the race turns into a messy scramble late, but Fluffy's Girl is the one leading this conversation.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Bewicked up front
Punty read: Maiden 1100s can be chaos with a number, but Alpine Whiskey is the one I trust to do the job early and keep moving. The gear switches and first-season style tend to matter here, and he's priced like a horse who's still figuring it out, not like a finished product. Roland View is the main alternate because he's also map-friendly, and Bewicked brings that leader's energy that can drag weaker ones into the fight.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.00 pool)
1. Alpine Whiskey (No.1) — $4.50 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 17.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.25x
Why He's been interfered with and held up in recent runs, and today's Soft 6 profile helps a horse that can stay on speed.
2. Roland View (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Bewicked (No.9) — $3.70 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 45.3% | Value: 0.60x
Why He can lead and he can hang on, but he's not paying enough for how hard maidens can be to finish.
Roughie: Office Award (No.7) — $26.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.78x
Why Big value profile if the race breaks open, but it needs luck in running and a clean lane.
Race type: C3, 1400m (small field, Soft)
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, don't expect a flying tempo
Punty read: Four-horse race, so everyone's basically forced to keep honest. Thickskinned is the standout in a "who can actually win this without drama" way. Alpine Fury is the natural pressure and has the right profile for this class, and Bellsprout can take a run into it if things turn into a tactical contest. Snow Eagle is the longshot swing, mostly for what happens if the front two make a meal of it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Thickskinned (No.3) — $2.30 / $1.31 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 39.0% | Place: 2.2% | Value: 1.08x
Why Tiny field, clear class edge, and Soft 6 suits her rhythm. She's the one that should be hitting the front when it matters.
2. Alpine Fury (No.1) — $2.70 / $1.53 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 31.3% | Place: 2.2% | Value: 0.99x
Why A real chance — but at $1.53 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Bellsprout (No.4) — $3.70 / $1.81 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.2% | Place: 2.2% | Value: 1.07x
Why She can take a run, but this race sets up like it wants a straight push to the finish.
Roughie: Snow Eagle (No.6) — $9.00 / $2.68 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 2.2% | Value: 0.83x
Why Needs the race to fall apart in front, not just need to be good. Soft margins don't play favourites.
Race type: C1, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Wolf Junior and Fuel On The Fire bring the pressure through midfield
Punty read: Slow 1400s at Launceston are tricky because they punish the ones that sit too dead early. Wolf Junior gives you the best blend of "in the right spot" and "can still hit the line". Fuel On The Fire is your other obvious danger, and Stollaway Ned is a place threat if the track makes people run out of puff.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Wolf Junior (No.3) — $2.00 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$10.50
Prob 36.5% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why Midfield on a slow tempo means you get the right timing, and he's got the profile to land close enough to win even when it's grinding.
2. Fuel On The Fire (No.1) — $2.90 / $1.22 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.29x
Why A real chance — but at $1.22 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Stollaway Ned (No.2) — $11.00 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.00x
Why Might sneak into the placings, but she's asking too much for a win given the pace setup.
Roughie: Bella Chinkara (No.7) — $7.50 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.97x
Why If the race plays "late sprint", she's got enough in her. But she's the garnish, not the main meal.
Race type: Bm68, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged Stardarmus and Prince Of Khatun
Punty read: Prince Of Khatun is the clear anchor here. He's got that speed to be respected, and on a short 1200m, being in the first half and moving with purpose is half the job. Go Jeanie is the class in the shadows, and Stardarmus can bring the long stride home if the race doesn't split too hard early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.50 pool)
1. Prince Of Khatun (No.3) — $2.90 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$23.75
Prob 30.5% | Place: 64.3% | Value: 0.76x
Why Pace suits, Soft conditions don't smear his effectiveness, and the win shot is the one to anchor around.
2. Go Jeanie (No.4) — $8.00 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.13x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Stardarmus (No.5) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 45.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why She can run into the finish, but she's not as clean a pin as the top one today.
Roughie: Gee Gees Me Boy (No.8) — $16.00 / $2.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.23x
Why Value lurking if the race breaks open and it turns into a scramble, but it's Prince Of Khatun's race until proven otherwise.
Race type: C1, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Da Silver Flash the pace-advantaged threat
Punty read: At 2000m on Soft 6, this is about who can hold their lane and keep finding. Little El is the best "steady engine" type, and Bailed has the same vibe. The danger is Last Tremble, who can turn into a problem if the leaders look at each other and forget the line exists.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Little El (No.5) — $2.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$25.50
Prob 33.4% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 1.03x
Why She's consistent, she handles Soft, and with a slow tempo she gets every chance to build momentum without being buried.
2. Bailed (No.1) — $2.20 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.13x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Last Tremble (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.86x
Why She needs everything to line up and the race to run a certain way.
Roughie: Irish Bloom (No.6) — $12.00 / $3.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 1.18x
Why If she gets a clear run late, she can punch above her price, but she's a "hope and hustle" play.
Race type: Bm60, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Nicalbi has pace advantage but looks priced off him
Punty read: This race looks like it wants Kireina Marubrah and Eaglefurther trading leads or trading lanes. Kireina Marubrah is the best mix of on-pacing and staying power through the middle stages, and she's the one I can see holding her ground when the tempo stays slow and the final section bites.
Eaglefurther is the other big threat, and Al Maximus is the "don't dismiss if it's a tactical race" type. Nicalbi is the long-shot romance, Thisismyturf is more of a place-sneak if things fall right.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Kireina Marubrah (No.6) — $2.70 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 31.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.11x
Why She's got the pace to be in it early and the Soft credentials to keep grinding. That's the winning recipe today.
2. Eaglefurther (No.2) — $2.80 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.3% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 1.04x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Al Maximus (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.85 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.07x
Why A genuine threat if the race turns into a scramble, but Kireina Marubrah is the lead horse I'm chasing.
Roughie: Nicalbi (No.4) — $21.00 / $4.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.0% | Place: 5.8% | Value: 0.51x
Why He needs a miracle run and a complete pace collapse. Soft doesn't create miracles, it creates grinders.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,3,2,8 / 6,12,4,11 / 1,6,9,7 / 3,1,4 (192 combos x $0.26 = $50.00) -- 26% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,1,7,2 / 3,4,5,2 / 5,1,4 / 2,6,3 (144 combos x $0.14 = $20.16) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,6,9,7,2 / 3,1 / 3,1,7,2 / 3,4,5,2 / 5,1,4 / 2,6 (960 combos x $0.00521 = $5.00) -- 0.52% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Thickskinned (Race 4, No.3)✗ — $2.30
2 - Wolf Junior (Race 5, No.3)✓ Won — $1.87
3 - Little El (Race 7, No.5)✓ Won — $2.44
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Launceston on a Soft 6 with the rail True, it's the kind of day where horses that can handle a bit of give and actually get into it early have a big say in who goes home grinning.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 6, 1100-1600m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play On The Speed, especially from the better drawers)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 13°C, wind SSE 18km/h, with that "cold morning that makes tacky manners" feel (watch for Low Light, Gusty Spices)
Early lane guess: Out front to midfield, don't overthink it on the first couple of turns
Tempo profile: Genuine to moderate early, with enough speed on tap that you can chase leaders without getting cute
Jockeys to follow:
Craig Newitt: reads the pace well and keeps a horse in the race when everyone else panics.
J K Blacker: tends to turn "maybe" into "hit the line" with smart timing.
Luke P Dempsey: when he's on a map-fit runner, he's tough to run down in wet-ish conditions.
Stables to respect:
S Gandy (2 runners): good track record energy, especially when the horse is on the right part of the map.
Adam Trinder (2 runners): shows up when the field is messy and the going makes pace matter.
M A Ganderton (1 runner): one runner can be enough on a Smallish program if the gear and intent line up.
Punty's take:
Soft 6 at Launceston means the race doesn't "fly" so much as it "grinds". That rewards horses that either lead, or stalk with momentum, instead of the ones that need a perfect run and a clear highway. With the rail True, the straight does its thing, so if you're trapped too deep into the wrong lanes early, you'll pay for it late.
On top of that, there's a clear theme today: market support is showing up in a few specific runners, and the ones drifting are trying to tempt you into doing the thing where you swap safety for romance. I'm not here for romance, I'm here for loose-unit arithmetic.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive early in the betting races where the tempo looks genuine and the top picks have the map to be in the fight from the jump. In the smaller-fields races, don't spread too wide, you'll just donate to the raffle.
Where you can get value without getting cooked, it's in the races with a couple of main chances and one "I'll have a crack" roughie that's been underbet or has a legitimate gear and run-style reason to improve. Just don't let a roughie replace a banker. Roughies are flavour, not meals.