Thursday, 13 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 2050m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, led by No.1's far from a cry types, but Ruskana's the one who's meant to keep going.
Punty read: This is a big, heavy-distance maiden where "held together" beats "flash bang". Ruskana is the standout on the pace plan, and with the field likely to slog early, her ability to stay balanced and run through the middle-to-late is the story. Wyndstar drifted for a reason, and I reckon the others are there for the grind and the place money, not the win moment. Lomenie's the type who can sneak into the money if the leaders get swallowed by the slop.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Ruskana (No.3) — $1.75 / $1.03 🏆 6TH
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 54.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why Best tempo fit in a slow-heavy race, and she should still be rolling when everyone's legs feel like lead.
2. Wyndstar (No.4) — $6.70 / $1.77 🏆 8TH
Bet $2.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Prob 12.9% | Place: 49.5% | Value: 0.93x
Why If she finds a run early, she's got the legs late, but don't be shocked if she needs luck.
3. King Tagaloa (No.2) — $8.55 / $2.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.63x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Lomenie (No.8) — $9.55 / $2.30 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.40x
Why Roughie path is wide-and-available late, but I'm keeping the stake tight.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Bellabama set for a forward run and to hit the finish.
Punty read: If you want a race to start behaving, this is the one. Bellabama looks like the logical on-pacer, and the market's solidly locked in that direction. Good Lordy Me can pick up place money if she can avoid being strangled by traffic, while Prestige Sterling is the "sneaky saver" type who benefits from the field getting messy late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Bellabama (No.6) — $1.74 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$14.80
Prob 44.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Barrier one, pace advantage, and she's built for a heavy 1600 finish where the strong stay strong.
2. Good Lordy Me (No.3) — $5.60 / $1.67 🏆 5TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 11.5% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.53x
Why Drop to 1600 helps the chances of getting into the money, even if she's not winning.
3. Prestige Sterling (No.10) — $10.10 / $2.65 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.37x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Steal Away (No.8) — $9.00 / $2.45 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.86x
Why Has a place chance if the race falls apart, but the return lane isn't screaming today.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, leaders do the work and the rest do the surviving.
Punty read: This is a speed race disguised as a maiden, because the early pressure is on. Tauto Bar is likely to be up near the speed early enough to make this hard for the wide bloomers. The Comedian is there as the prime danger, and Stephanie's Pride has the kind of early run that can turn into a place job when it gets chopped up late. Lost The Plot is the roughie because when it's hot early, the tired horses start getting found.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Tauto Bar (No.11) — $4.10 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet $17.50 Each Way ($8.75W + $8.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$33.42
Prob 17.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.73x
Why He's built for the hot tempo, and 1200 on Heavy 10 means those who can roll through the turn matter.
2. The Comedian (No.4) — $4.35 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Stephanie's Pride (No.13) — $5.25 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Lost The Plot (No.6) — $9.90 / $3.30 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$17.25
Prob 6.8% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.99x
Why If the leaders start getting tangled, he's one of the ones who can find a lane and ping late.
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, sprint dynamics where positions matter more than vibes.
Punty read: Koko is the boss in a short sprint, and 1000m on Heavy 10 is where speed holds the steering wheel. Fort Sumter and Written Charm are the kinds who can absolutely have their moment, but the race will be decided early, you're chasing a run, not a miracle. Snitchy's the value-ish roughing option, especially if the track favours those who can stay near the action.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Koko (No.4) — $2.67 / $1.32 🏆 2ND
Bet $19.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$19.00
Prob 35.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why Best speed profile for the sprint, and she should get first crack at the finish in these slog conditions.
2. Fort Sumter (No.11) — $5.35 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.70
Prob 17.6% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.83x
Why Gear first time looks like a real intent, and sprint heavy races often reward fresh legs.
3. Written Charm (No.13) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 48.8% | Value: 0.84x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Snitchy (No.9) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why Roughie win needs things to go his way, best chance is a late traffic chop for place.
Race type: Benchmark 56, 2050m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, this one can set up for a smart grinder.
Punty read: The pace is real, and that helps the stayers who can keep their rhythm. Luckyheleft is the one I want on the each-way lane, she's got the right profile when the race doesn't turn into a walk. Princess Painton can hang around for the money, Mawhera's a danger but she's likely to be the kind that needs a perfect run, and Discobay is the roughie that can swing it if the field starts to spread.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.00 pool)
1. Luckyheleft (No.2) — $5.65 / $2.25 🏆 7TH
Bet $6.00 Each Way ($3.00W + $3.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 17.2% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.25x
Why Each-way sweet spot in heavy, drops back to a trip where her staying grind can cash up.
2. Princess Painton (No.4) — $5.60 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.11x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Mawhera (No.3) — $4.50 / $1.72 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 37.6% | Value: 0.75x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Discobay (No.13) — $12.00 / $3.20 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.94x
Why If the pace gets shreddy, he can swoop into the finish and steal a place.
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, it's a race for those who can sit handy and not waste ground.
Punty read: Ataegina looks like the best "grind out the heavy win" option. Square Deal is always dangerous because he can find the bit late, and Count Of Toulouse is the one who might get that perfect run behind the speed and then have one more kick left. Setheus is a place threat, but the order on the day points to Ataegina doing the job.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Ataegina (No.4) — $3.80 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $21.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$21.00
Prob 20.9% | Place: 47.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why Drops sharply in grade, and on Heavy 10 the ones who can handle it at this trip get their moment.
2. Square Deal (No.1) — $4.90 / $1.85 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.40
Prob 15.6% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.93x
Why Can be brave in a heavy 1600, and place is the safe way to use him.
3. Count Of Toulouse (No.2) — $6.75 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 35.5% | Value: 1.04x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Clarapatra (No.12) — $13.75 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why Needs a bit of chaos, but if she gets room she can run home into a place.
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, this one can turn into a tactical sprint.
Punty read: Russian Front is the main play, he's in the right zone and looks like the kind who can carry his speed through a heavy 1200. Atella Miss is the next danger with the right place profile, while Ice Quake's the roughie because blinkers off can wake them up and turn the run into a real finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($4.50 pool)
1. Russian Front (No.3) — $4.50 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Each Way ($2.25W + $2.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.7% | Value: 0.93x
Why Rates well off the early plan, and heavy 1200 is all about carrying momentum, not fancy late runs.
2. Atella Miss (No.6) — $5.35 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Ice Quake (No.8) — $8.30 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.25x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Tanana (No.12) — $9.00 / $3.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.24x
Why Outside place run, needs a pace crack to land late.
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, so it's either stay with it early or get stuck in traffic forever.
Punty read: Nasraawy is the one I want to be closest to the speed and take the track out of the equation. Bold Suitor is the classic short-priced danger, but the way the race shapes makes it feel like Lake Gillear can also be right there for the money. Rockcliff is your roughie for value, but in a 1000m Heavy 10, it's always a gamble whether the late swoop finds space.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Nasraawy (No.1) — $4.75 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$22.50
Prob 24.2% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.50x
Why Leaders battle, she's set to be in the thick of it early, and she should be there at the hit-the-line moment.
2. Bold Suitor (No.3) — $2.73 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Prob 15.3% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.59x
Why Even if she doesn't win, that price makes the place lane viable if the pace starts to glue.
3. Lake Gillear (No.6) — $7.85 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.48x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Rockcliff (No.10) — $15.50 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 1.17x
Why Needs a late rail-to-the-right-kind-of run, and 1000m heavy doesn't always hand that up.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,4,8 / 6,3,10,8 / 11,6,4,9 / 4,11,13,9 (192 combos x $0.10 = $20.00) -- 10% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,13,1 / 4,12,9 / 3,12,6,4 / 1,10,6 (108 combos x $0.30 = $32.00) -- 30% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11 / 4 / 2 / 4 / 3 / 1 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Ruskana (Race 1, No.3)✗ — $1.75
2 - Bellabama (Race 2, No.6)✓ Won — $1.74
3 - Koko (Race 4, No.4)✗ — $2.67
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Degenerates, Moe is a Heavy 10 slog with the rail true and the clouds doing their best impersonation of a drama series finale. If you can't handle the mud, go watch reruns of The Chase and pretend you're still winning. We've got a few proper anchors on the card, then a bit of chaos to keep the heart rate up.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Moe, 1000-2050m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Heavy 10 (expected to play Catch-me-if-you-can, mud-loving style)
Weather: Possible light shower, 13C, gusty and chilly, watch for the track getting heavier (45%+ rain risk early)
Early lane guess: speed holds early, but anywhere getting covered is the spot where runs die
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate first half, then it turns into a slog fight late, especially over the middle trips
Jockeys to follow:
Luke Currie: knows how to navigate the mud and keeps his momentum through the heavy.
Jamie Mott: tends to land a cart through traffic and doesn't panic when it gets ugly.
Daniel Stackhouse: rides with intent, and on a day like this intent matters.
Stables to respect:
G Waterhouse & A Bott (1 runners): Ruskana's the headline act in Race 1.
Mick Nolan (1 runners): sends them to war, Discobay in Race 5 shapes like a proper late option.
S Susie Wells (1 runners): Clydebank Robber can grind, even if she's still searching for the win button.
Punty's take:
Heavy 10 at Moe is where "nice run" turns into "got flogged on the line" real quick. The rail is true, so you're not getting saved by geometry, you're getting saved by tactics and staying in the race long enough to sprint when everyone else is slipping. Expect leaders to take a turn, then it's a keep-pulling grind, not a fly-by-night dash.
Race 1 is basically a form and pace story with Ruskana leading the charge. Race 2 is your get-on-and-go job, Bellabama has the map and the market's happy. From there, it's a mix of short-priced lanes and a couple of spots where I'm happy to back the better shape over the more popular name.
What it means for you:
If you're playing this like a sane person, you're betting the front half of the card like it owes you money, then getting creative for the legs that can go sideways when the track turns into soup. My favourite approach today is aggression on the placeable favourites, and then using the roughie as a "if the speed collapses" kind of insurance.
For today's build, my brain wants a spine of Ruskana in Race 1, Bellabama in Race 2, and Koko in Race 4. Then we add disciplined value where the field shapes for it, especially Race 5 with Luckyheleft as your each-way engine, and Race 8 where Nasraawy is right there to pounce.