Thursday, 24 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 2400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, Wolves' Den likely advantaged early, keep an eye on who can close without getting trapped in traffic
Punty read: This is a staying maiden where the race shape matters more than your mate's bloke at the pub. Baldoni (No.1) and Raghnall (No.6) are your big "can finally get a run" stories. Raghnall has blinkers off first time, and that scream says "we're done soft excuses, let's see it." Wolves' Den (No.7) has the pace advantage on paper from barrier 1, but with a slow tempo, the battle turns into who can find clearance late. Fantastic Beast (No.5) is the drifted roughie profile, but you only back it if you want chaos and the speed to collapse.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Raghnall (No.6) — $3.40 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 28.5% | Place: 61.9% | Value: 1.21x
Why Blinkers off, staying trip suits, and he has the sharpest "can actually improve" look of the shorties around him.
2. Baldoni (No.1) — $3.45 / $1.32 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.1% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.89x
Why A real chance — but at $1.32 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Churchillena (No.8) — $4.80 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.9% | Place: 53.5% | Value: 1.40x
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Fantastic Beast (No.5) — $18.00 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.5% | Place: 24.3% | Value: 1.63x
Race type: Maiden, 2050m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, key is who can stalk without wasting petrol, Jean Georges is the safest sit and pounce angle
Punty read: Jean Georges (No.10) is the classic setup, barrier 2, backable for a reason, and with the tempo slow, he gets to do his job late. Good Lordy Me (No.2) has the on pace map, but he's got a bit of weight trouble and wide running can bite in these. Ashina (No.5) has speed and talent, but I'd rather have the stable's more reliable switch-on performer in the pick spot. The big thing here is that the market is already sharpening the right face.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Jean Georges (No.10) — $1.85 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.75
Prob 46.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.29x
Why He's drawn well, the pace won't run him into trouble, and he should hit the line under minimal drama.
2. Good Lordy Me (No.2) — $4.80 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 49.1% | Value: 0.83x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Ashina (No.5) — $5.30 / $1.80 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Thinking Positive (No.8) — $12.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.94x
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, this is a pressure cooker, Roseatic can go forward but the main danger is the straight line finishers
Punty read: This is the one where the tempo is your cheat code. With genuine pace, Mr Natural (No.3) can tuck in behind it and explode through the gaps instead of having to fight through a slow slog. Truant (No.6) is the danger curveball, he's got the "put the brakes on then go" profile with gear changes, and he can sneak into the top three without warning. Roseatic (No.10) is live too, and if he jumps and sticks, he can bully the outside runners into submission like it's Fast and Furious and he's taking the lead in the first ten seconds.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Mr Natural (No.3) — $2.20 / $1.20 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 46.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.32x
Why Gelded, first rate pace set up, and he's the most likely to be in the right part of the track at the right time.
2. Truant (No.6) — $4.20 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 54.3% | Value: 0.65x
Why A real chance — but at $1.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Roseatic (No.10) — $5.20 / $1.62 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 54.3% | Value: 1.24x
Why A real chance — but at $1.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Iron Eagle (No.2) — $16.00 / $3.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.79x
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Big Kapow is the pace pressure, but I'm watching who holds the line at the 100m
Punty read: Fervently (No.9) is the "get in, do the job, don't overthink it" horse. Canticle (No.8) looks like the best place bet if the race compresses and the leaders start taking shortcuts that dont exist. Big Kapow (No.1) is in the mix, but with a nose roll off first time, he's got that slight risk of needing a run or two. This is where you want horses that can stay straight and produce, not ones that need a perfect trip to cash.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Fervently (No.9) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$67.50
Prob 30.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why Built for the sharp 1100m, and the rail true helps him get through traffic without getting too much pull.
2. Canticle (No.8) — $3.25 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Big Kapow (No.1) — $3.78 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 54.5% | Value: 0.71x
Why A real chance — but at $1.37 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Kincumber (No.6) — $12.25 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.23x
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Forest Jim has the engine, Super Mirage is primed to press and keep going
Punty read: This isn't a race where you want to stare at the ground all day, it's a race where you want momentum. Super Mirage (No.2) is the one I trust to keep kicking with that on pace style, and the market is leaning in his direction for a reason. Aubaine (No.1) is short enough to be dangerous, but this setup screams that the value lives with Super Mirage, the horse that can sit closer and force the finish to happen on his terms. Savannah Chill (No.3) is the place threat if the leaders overdo it, and Dolce Carolina (No.6) is the "don't sleep on it" outsider.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Aubaine (No.1) — $2.75 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 25.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.82x
Why He's got the profile to win, but I'm treating him as the straight bat rather than the value play.
2. Super Mirage (No.2) — $5.50 / $1.95 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 60.5% | Value: 1.45x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Savannah Chill (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Forest Jim (No.9) — $18.00 / $4.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.9% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.87x
Race type: Benchmark 56, 2400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Parrot Club and Aberlutely can advantage early, but Prince of Byron gets his best in the late chase
Punty read: This is a classic "who can last when the tempo steadies" race. Prince Of Byron (No.8) is priced like a value bet, and that's because he can sit back and then make it a finishing burst, which is perfect on a Good 4 with no wet excuse. Power Pivot (No.6) has the "sits handy, tries hard" profile, and Chateau Dancer (No.11) is the right kind of outsider if the race flows. Hollandia (No.1) might be the one that grinds away, but for my money, the finishing style wins these staying benchmark jobs when they don't go too mad early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Prince Of Byron (No.8) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$33.60
Prob 25.7% | Place: 54.7% | Value: 0.94x
Why Backmarker with a late kick, and he should get first crack at the leaders if the pace stays workable.
2. Power Pivot (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.80 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.92x
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Chateau Dancer (No.11) — $9.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 40.1% | Value: 1.32x
Why A real chance — but at $2.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: North Terrace (No.5) — $13.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 1.23x
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, leaders can set up an on speed contest, but the finish is where you win races in a straight 1000
Punty read: Marilyn's Edge (No.5) is the main show, and she maps like the sort that can keep going when others hit the wall. Dirty Diana (No.7) is the underdog danger, she's got enough tactical punch to go near the front and still be there late. Midnight Devil (No.2) is the value lean, but this kind of race punishes anything that gets too far back. Sleeping Tiger (No.8) is the long shot roughie, if the leaders get greedy and the track plays kindly, he can swoop like a horror movie sequel nobody asked for.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Marilyn's Edge (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$24.15
Prob 23.9% | Place: 50.1% | Value: 1.28x
Why She should be in the mix at the bell and has the best chance to keep finding when the pace steadies.
2. Dirty Diana (No.7) — $2.90 / $1.35 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.8% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.84x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Midnight Devil (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
Roughie: Sleeping Tiger (No.8) — $18.50 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 1.05x
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Chambers Bay and Legacy Bel can push, but Russian Front's the one with the momentum to keep running
Punty read: 1200m is where you get punished for being too far back, especially with a true rail. Russian Front (No.6) has the kind of form that says he'll be in the contest and not doing cardio for charity. Ranakye (No.4) is the place threat if the leaders start stacking up, Legacy Bel (No.8) can run into a spot too, and Three Point Turn (No.15) is the outsider who can spring a surprise if the race opens. Magic Drum (No.1) is interesting but the market has him in his own little lane, and I'd rather catch the wave with Russian Front leading the decision.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Russian Front (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.72 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 26.2% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.87x
Why He's got pace, he's on the right part of the track, and he should be the one turning it into a finishing battle.
2. Ranakye (No.4) — $6.80 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.16x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Legacy Bel (No.8) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.08x
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Three Point Turn (No.15) — $9.50 / $2.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.95x
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 6,5,1 / 10,2,5,8 / 3,6,10 / 9,6,8 (108 combos x $0.19 = $20.00) -- 19% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,3,2,6 / 8,5,11 / 5,7,4 / 6,15,1 (108 combos x $0.18 = $19.20) -- 18% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,6,10,2 / 9,6,8,1 / 1,3,2,6 / 8,5,6,11 / 5,7,2,4 / 6,15,4,8 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Jean Georges (Race 2, No.10)✓ Won — $1.90
2 - Mr Natural (Race 3, No.3)✗ — $1.93
3 - Fervently (Race 4, No.9)✓ Won — $2.52
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Moe on a Good 4 with the rail true entire circuit, feels like one of those days where the front half makes decent coin and the back markers are either legends or lane changers at the worst possible time. Cheers to that.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Good 4, 2000m+ marathon energy and sprint curveballs on the side, 1200m and 1000m sneaks in for chaos
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Speed and Stamina, with a fair bit of on pace saving)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 20C, nil rain, watch for gusts that can make a few tackles lurch in the straight
Early lane guess: Tight early, but the winning lanes are always where the speed ends up, Race 3 and Race 7 are the ones that can turn into a speed festival
Tempo profile: Mixed, slow to moderate early on the longer races, then proper sprint tempo from the 1000m jobs
Jockeys to follow:
Jake Noonan: the bloke keeps landing the right place at the right time, and when he draws a cleaner run, he's dangerous.
Jye McNeil: sharp decision maker, and he usually gets the horse into the race rather than just along for the ride.
Damien Thornton: when he's on, watch for the "I'll just sit there" pattern, then he suddenly takes your momentum away in the last 200.
Stables to respect:
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (2 runners): they've got multiple chances across the maidens, and they'll back their judgement if the market starts tightening.
E & D Browne (3 runners): when these jumpers show up in benchmark and maiden style races, they tend to be live in the finish.
Pat Carey & Harris Walker (2 runners): they go very hard on getting horses to the right moment, especially when the pace shape suits.
Punty's take:
Moe is doing that classic thing where the rail is true, the track is fair, and suddenly everybody's excuse game is on fire. With no rain, you can lean on form and pace maps, but you still gotta protect yourself from the "got held up, then ran on for 3rd" types. That's why I'm big on place and Each Way value today, especially in the races where the tempo doesn't collapse.
Race 3 is the gremlin race for your wallet. 1000m, genuine pace, and the whole thing sets up for the gelded, sharpened type to slice through. Mr Natural is the spine there, and he's the sort that can win while making it look rude for everyone else. Then Race 4 is another one where the market says "banker", but I'm more into the exact profile that hits the line clean, Fervently has that.
Then you've got the later set piece, Race 8. 1200m, true rail, no obvious rain excuses, so I want the horse that actually brings pace and can handle the lift. Russian Front is the pick, and if Ranakye pings late, well, at least you'll have coverage on the right shapes.
What it means for you:
My game plan today is simple, chase the front running where it matters, but pay for the finish when there's any risk of a mid race hold up. That means I'm backing the Top 3 in every race where the model has them locked, and I'm also putting a roughie in where I think the price is telling porkies.
Bet-wise, I'm not getting cute with the over-wide fantasy stuff in the exotics. This card has plenty of "one horse looks like it wins, but it still needs luck to finish the job." So the priority is getting winners and placers that actually match the pace picture. If you're betting early, pounce when the speed is drawn to do the work, not after the field already decided to settle into a treadmill.
Ok, enough talk. Let's go hunting.