Sunday, 16 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1425m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, with Vanrosa and Laureata holding the best early advantage, then it turns into a soft finishing slog.
Punty read: This is the type of maiden where the leaders might not rip it apart early, but the horses that can sit in the right spot and keep rolling are the ones that cash. Laureata looks like the map's answer in a race that's likely to bunch up, and Boujee Gold is the value angle if she can get position early in the mud. C'mon Wicksy gets gear help with ear muffs off first time, and she's worth a look late if the race comes apart.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Laureata (No.11) — $4.45 / $1.70 🏆 5TH
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 23.1% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 1.43x
Why She's got that "spot to win" profile, and Soft 7 lets a good travelling type keep momentum when others lose it.
2. Boujee Gold (No.10) — $3.72 / $1.57 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.85
Prob 17.4% | Place: 64.9% | Value: 1.14x
Why Market knows she's live and she can run on through the finish, especially if the tempo stays slow.
3. Belleistic Bonny (No.7) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.7% | Place: 62.2% | Value: 1.19x
Why Finished wide-ish before and her best work is still the closer stuff, she's just not the best "place" price on my line.
Roughie: Solar Orbit (No.6) — $9.80 / $2.70 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.63x
Why If the race collapses late she can swoop, but I'm not stuffing the ticket at a price that's not screaming value.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1010m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, and it's a sprint where position matters more than dreams.
Punty read: Mrs Flanders is the one they keep feeding. The Soft helps her kind of running, and with this being 1010m, any little stumble or awkward roll of the dice is brutal. Mr Bazza has the gear banditry with cross-over nose band again, but he's more of a place saver than a win story. Edna Mae can be right in the mix but this race looks like it'll funnel into the same few lanes late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Mrs Flanders (No.7) — $1.77 / $1.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $17.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.48
Prob 47.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why She's the clear "get there, then keep going" type, and the sprint gives her every chance to sit within touching distance.
2. Mr Bazza (No.2) — $6.35 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.20
Prob 10.9% | Place: 65.4% | Value: 0.92x
Why He's got the stalking profile and should get at least a piece of it if the leaders pop and others scramble.
3. Edna Mae (No.5) — $7.35 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.61x
Why Better for the exotics than a straight place angle at this price.
Roughie: Mogo Rock (No.6) — $18.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.57x
Why If they go hard and he gets a soft run at the finish, yeah, he can sneak a cheque, but this ticket's built around the main two.
Race type: CLASS 2, 1010m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace with leaders doing plenty, and it's about who can stick to it in soft conditions.
Punty read: Parthenope is the map queen in a race that looks like it'll sprint and then change gear. Let's Go Brandon is cheap for a reason, but the advantage is that Parthenope seems built to hold her position and keep going, especially on Soft. Faerywood is the value side, and Curly Bend is the kind of threat that can run a cheeky top-three if the speed stutters.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Parthenope (No.4) — $2.79 / $1.25 SCR
Bet Tracked — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided
Prob 31.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why Strong early presence, and in this tempo, sticking close beats chasing shadows.
2. Let's Go Brandon (No.2) — $2.55 / $1.15 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 18.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.61x
Why He's live but the price-to-place angle is too stingy, so I'm letting Parthenope do the heavy lifting.
3. Faerywood (No.6) — $9.40 / $2.50 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 57.5% | Value: 1.53x
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Curly Bend (No.5) — $11.25 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, and 1200m on Soft is where "one run too far back" gets punished.
Punty read: I like the race shape that supports Remy's Bro and Slater's Boy, both are the right sort to sit on speed and not stop. Star Intention is the intruder at a price, and Reveillon has enough on-pace zip to make things chaotic. Lunar Dancer is the one that might get dragged into it late, but the main story is pace + position.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Remy's Bro (No.2) — $3.45 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$49.00
Prob 20.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.76x
Why He maps to the right part of the track, and with this Soft, leaders who travel get first crack at the line.
2. Slater's Boy (No.1) — $3.75 / $1.62 🏆 12TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 19.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.21x
Why Gear works, stable's got them ready, and he's the price upgrade on the "main speed" idea.
3. Star Intention (No.6) — $4.50 / $1.80 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.01x
Why Looks dangerous but the "value on place" isn't my lane today.
Roughie: Lunar Dancer (No.3) — $9.80 / $2.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 36.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why If the pace softens and she gets room, she can grab a slice, but I'm not going full lottery here.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1650m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, so the finish should be competitive, not fireworks then fade.
Punty read: The Arrow is a proper "get a rhythm and keep grinding" type, and 1650m at this level loves a horse who can stay involved. Kindamagic is the other lane option, she's got that on-pace profile and is the sort to keep finding at Softy tracks. Hussy La Vista is the pivot if the race chops out, but she's not my place insurance at this price.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. The Arrow (No.10) — $4.90 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 19.7% | Place: 67.4% | Value: 1.25x
Why Genuine tempo helps her, and Soft 7 gives the "keep rolling" types every chance to outlast the chaos.
2. Kindamagic (No.8) — $6.35 / $2.40 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.13x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Hussy La Vista (No.7) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.86x
Why Could run well, but the "value on place" is a bit cooked at this rank.
Roughie: Bella Piazza (No.1) — $10.40 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.12x
Why If she finds a better early position than last time, she could rocket into the finish, but I'm keeping the stake focused.
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1650m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, and this distance at 1650m means the leaders can't just cruise.
Punty read: Brannum is the one for me, he's the right mix of on-pace enough, and the Soft track gives him a chance to keep using his engine when others go quiet. Exceed Success looks like the main danger if he can tuck in and get the run. Bourbon Queen is there too, but the value and map read say Brannum is the safer win engine.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Brannum (No.1) — $4.95 / $2.00 🏆 7TH
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 20.1% | Place: 62.3% | Value: 1.34x
Why He's got the run pattern for Soft, and at this class the best grinders get home first.
2. Exceed Success (No.5) — $5.45 / $2.15 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 67.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Bourbon Queen (No.7) — $4.35 / $1.85 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 57.6% | Value: 0.71x
Why She can hit the line, but she's not value on the place bracket I'm working.
Roughie: Tabor (No.2) — $12.00 / $3.70 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 28.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why If the race stretches and the field goes into survival mode, a backmarker like this can sneak into your trifecta dream.
Race type: BENCHMARK 66, 1425m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, and this is the kind of race where staying in touch matters a ton on Soft.
Punty read: Triptolemus is the one that should be forward enough to make the race hers, Kendalia is the sharp danger if she gets a better run, and Snowy is the value bomb if the leaders don't finish their job. Sacred Mistress is the each-way type of threat, the rest are more for later if the track turns into a mess.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Triptolemus (No.7) — $2.85 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$19.43
Prob 33.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.21x
Why The trip suits, she should be in the right spot early, and 1425m gives her time to run on when others stall.
2. Kendalia (No.8) — $2.19 / $1.13 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why A real chance — but at $1.13 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Snowy (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.62 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why Great story, but I'm not doubling the place exposure when I've already locked the main spine.
Roughie: Sacred Mistress (No.6) — $12.00 / $2.85 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why She can grind home if she's not too far back, Soft helps, and she's the kind that can salute in a tricky finish.
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace over 1200m, and the race will be decided by who gets the clean lanes without getting stuck.
Punty read: This is a lane-and-pace race. In The Nic Of Time is up on the on-pace crew and should get a good look at the finish. Jazz All Knight is the value to chase because she's doing the work where it matters. Winter Storm can sneak into the frame if the speed holds together, and Skibidi is the late-burst wildcard but she's not the one I'm pushing hard in the finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. In The Nic Of Time (No.4) — $3.17 / $1.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 24.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.01x
Why She's right in the pace mix, and 1200m at Soft 7 rewards clean timing more than excuses.
2. Jazz All Knight (No.3) — $7.90 / $2.70 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 59.0% | Value: 1.49x
Why A real chance — but at $2.70 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Winter Storm (No.12) — $7.35 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.17x
Why She's in the mix, but not the cleanest place price for this ticket.
Roughie: Skibidi (No.8) — $9.40 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 35.1% | Value: 0.97x
Why If she finds traffic early and the race opens late, she's one that can plug into the finish, but I'm not covering too wide.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,7,11,6 / 7,2,9,5 / 4,2,6,1 / 1,2,6,3 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.84) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,8,7,1 / 5,1,7,2 / 7,8,4,6 / 4,3,12,8 (256 combos x $0.20 = $51.20) -- 20% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4 / 2 / 10 / 1 / 7 / 4 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Mrs Flanders (Race 2, No.7)✓ Won — $1.77
2 - Parthenope (Race 3, No.4) — $2.79
3 - Triptolemus (Race 7, No.7)✓ Won — $2.85
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Sickos, Moruya's on Soft 7 with showers mucking around, rail True, and the track basically asking us to stop being precious and start trusting pace and class.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Moruya, 1010-1650m range card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play Longish, Ground-hugging, and a bit slippery late)
Weather: Showers, 11°C, humidity 97%, gusts around 14.8km/h (watch for the 40%+ rain wobble at multiple times today)
Early lane guess: Quieter early speed could get exposed, so I'm leaning lanes with a bit of early legitimacy
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate early across the day, then more honest tempo in the middle with some genuine movers
Jockeys to follow:
Brock Ryan: seems to find lanes and stick there when the track turns grotty
Ms Amy McLucas: steady hands, especially when the race isn't running on rails
Pierre Boudvillain: if he can get you a trip, he can get you a finish
Stables to respect:
B Joseph & P & M Jones (10 runners): keep striking at this level and don't mind bringing a horse on
Luke Pepper (5 runners): has that "we're here to win" vibe, especially when the map suits
Michael Gatty (3 runners): good at making horses look capable, watch for them late in the betting
Punty's take:
Soft 7 at Moruya is a cheat code for horses that can travel, find themseles a strip of ground, and not go stiff turning for home. This is not a meeting where you throw a dart at some random backmarker and hope for magic, it's a meeting where the race shape matters, because the finish will be wet-weather honest.
The speed is there, but it's the type of speed that makes you sweat, not the suicide sprint stuff. In the maidens you want the map, in the benchies you want the runner who can keep coming when everyone else starts to clunk up. And yep, the rain risk means the track may change during the day, so I'm giving a bit more love to horses that are already thriving on the Soft.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive in the races that look pace-clean. In the open-ish maidens you can get away with a favourite, but value lives in the ones who are either first out of the gates or have the right gear for soft conditions. If the market is firming a runner, respect it, but if the market is drifting and they still have the right map, that's where I go on the hunt.
My spine today is a Big 3 built around horses that can control the race script, or at least sit close enough to pounce when the track asks questions. Then I'm grabbing a roughie in most races, because one of those ugly "I told you so" dividends is what keeps the night spicy.