Thursday, 16 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, on-pace advantage, leaders can dictate
Punty read: Race 1 looks like a classic "stop and start" maiden, except the early speed is there and the gate isn't doing anyone dirty. Unwanted News (No.8) and Win For Buster (No.1) both have the kind of map profile that usually means they're not stuck in no mans land. The tricky part is that some of the backmarkers have gear and excuses, but unless they're soaking up a genuine slowdown, they'll have to go full swooper mode early, and that can cost too much ground at 1200m.
This is your tightrope walk race, so backing the market's on pace story is the move, and then using a roughie only if the horse can actually improve without needing a miracle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Unwanted News (No.8) — $2.92 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$23.80
Prob 28.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.10x
Why Blink, you're there speed, and she's got the pace-friendly profile to hit the line without getting boxed in.
2. Win For Buster (No.1) — $4.15 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 27.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why Gear change helps, and even with the Belmont Park excuse, the map setup at Pinjarra suits.
3. Noneofyourbusiness (No.7) — $5.05 / $1.82 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 19.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.23x
Why Big place type, runs the race on the better parts of the track, and she's got a real chance to be there at the finish.
Roughie: Mystic Empress (No.10) — $12.25 / $2.85 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.7% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 0.47x
Why Roughie path is basically "they all go backwards" and she finds a late opening, which can happen, but you don't want to rely on it.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, on-pace types hold the key
Punty read: Race 2 is the cleanest story on the card, because the early speed is stacked. Energetic (No.2) looks like the sort that can sit in the action and then keep finding when asked. You Can Call Me Al (No.1) is the danger because she can be pesky near the speed too, especially if the track softens slightly and the front section doesn't sprint away. Kentucky Drive (No.7) is the wildcard in the finish if she gets a perfect run and the tempo doesn't overcook the leaders.
If the rain hits hard, this is where you want horses that are already doing the hard work early, not the ones that have to wait for a miracle run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Energetic (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 29.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.28x
Why On-pace profile in a maiden, and the early positioning should keep her within striking range.
2. You Can Call Me Al (No.1) — $4.55 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.40
Prob 26.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why Market's not treating her like a hero, but she's drawn to get a run at the right time and the jockey/trainer combo is steady.
3. Kentucky Drive (No.7) — $7.90 / $2.50 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.50
Prob 10.8% | Place: 60.6% | Value: 1.04x
Why Gate helps her get into a rhythm, and in a moderate-tempo maiden she can pop up for a cheque.
Roughie: Diamond Choux (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.52x
Why She needs everything to go right from a backmarker spot, and there's not enough proof the pattern will unfold that way.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged runners want in front
Punty read: Eightyseven Lad (No.2) is the main storyline, tongue tie on and right in the pocket of the speed map. Dance Of Dragons (No.8) is the value spice because she's got the kind of profile that can surprise if she lands close early and doesn't get stuck behind. Lemmor Filou (No.11) is the place-getter that'll keep on trying, and Pembeton (No.1) is the sort of rough shot that can hit the frame if the race turns into a sprint duel.
This race screams for keeping it simple, because the pace is doing the heavy lifting.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.00 pool)
1. Eightyseven Lad (No.2) — $2.00 / $1.14 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 31.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why She maps to the front end, tongue tie can sharpen focus, and 1200m suits a quick switch rather than a late miracle.
2. Dance Of Dragons (No.8) — $4.75 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.30
Prob 26.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.94x
Why Value on place, and if the pace softens she can run over the top late.
3. Lemmor Filou (No.11) — $5.60 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.25
Prob 14.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.34x
Why She's built for the finish and should get a run into the money.
Roughie: Pembeton (No.1) — $10.75 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.70x
Why Needs a stronger late run than the profile suggests, so it's better as a pass today.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Spanish Armada style leads and stalkers
Punty read: This one is longer, which usually means the "on paper favourite" can start to tire and the back half gets involved. Spanish Armada (No.2) is drawn wide enough to stalk and close rather than have to win early, and Ocean Reef (No.4) has the sort of shape that can get involved late if the leaders don't go too quick. Lets Take A Chance (No.6) and Mystic Chaos (No.11) are the honest dangers from around that tempo zone.
But if you want one horse to hang your hat on, Spanish Armada is the pick because she's set up to get the trip without getting her legs chopped early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Spanish Armada (No.2) — $3.45 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 26.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.22x
Why Leader type with the tempo working out for her, and the run doesn't look like a death march.
2. Ocean Reef (No.4) — $5.10 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 13.8% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.53x
Why Place is the play, and in a 1400 maiden, she can run on without needing to lead at every point.
3. Lets Take A Chance (No.6) — $5.25 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 44.8% | Value: 1.07x
Why Place only makes sense if she picks up late and gets clear, and the model's not confident enough in that lane today.
Roughie: Field Mistress (No.12) — $9.75 / $2.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.78x
Why Roughie wins if the race falls apart early and she finds a perfect seam, which is possible, but you're gambling on luck there.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, big finishing kicks do the damage
Punty read: 1600m on a slow tempo is where Rocking In Vegas (No.1) becomes dangerous, because if the field doesn't force the issue early, the grind to the finish lets the best-prepared one keep hitting the line. Delicate Warrior (No.2) is next because she's got the gear upgrade and a map that suggests she won't be too far away if the pace collapses. Cameroon (No.9) is a rougher with the right kind of late run threat, and Valanne Dawn is the one that can sneak into the finish too, but it's not her race to dominate.
If this track gets even slightly tacky, expect the last 300m to turn into a foot race.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Rocking In Vegas (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.50
Prob 29.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why Slow tempo suits a horse that can keep momentum and then strike, and the gate means she can stay in the mix.
2. Delicate Warrior (No.2) — $5.05 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 12.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why The gear shift can sharpen her and the mid-race run should set up her finishing burst.
3. Cameroon (No.9) — $8.10 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.93x
Why She might run on, but the model thinks place odds are asking for a bit too much.
Roughie: Rare Honor (No.3) — $10.75 / $3.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.3% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.55x
Why Roughie path is late traffic luck plus the right timing, and we've already got enough risk in this kind of maiden.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, cluster of on pace, midrace positioning matters
Punty read: This is one of those races where everyone looks "sort of" like they can run, which means the winner is probably the one who gets the right trip without being asked too early. Superb Vintage (No.10) is strong in the setup, because she's the sort that can settle, then hit the line hard when others flatten. Miss Finkmeyer (No.6) is the place-value chaos because she's got the profile but not the "sure thing" win angle. Hyperreal (No.1) and Bonny Rock (No.2) are the other contenders, but the model says to trust Superb Vintage as your main anchor and then take Looks and Miss Finkmeyer in the supporting roles where appropriate.
This race is basically the "who gets to switch off at the right time" test.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Superb Vintage (No.10) — $4.90 / $1.95 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.00 Each Way ($7.00W + $7.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$36.05
Prob 16.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Can park in the right area and still be there at the business end, and the place strength is obvious.
2. Looks (No.5) — $8.70 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.38x
Why Looks is a genuine place type, but your Each Way already covers enough of that lane.
3. Miss Finkmeyer (No.6) — $4.30 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 11.6% | Place: 60.3% | Value: 0.68x
Why If the race is bunched late, she's the one that keeps coming, even if she's not always the outright winner.
Roughie: Bonny Rock (No.2) — $10.10 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.00x
Why Roughie path is a strong late run and the right lane, and we're not spreading too wide when the model says the top three are doing the heavy lifting.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, multiple lead/take control options
Punty read: True Fiction (No.1) is the one to build around. In this tempo, she gets the kind of trip where she can travel and then decide late, and when the market supports that style, you back it. Vandoula Jet (No.11) is the second spine piece because she's got the speed to be in it and she's not drawn to be stuck too far back. King Brew (No.3) is interesting, but the value says place is the better job, and that's what the model's doing.
This is the race for the "don't overcomplicate it" crowd, and also for the degenerates who think they can beat the model with a late longshot. Go on then.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. True Fiction (No.1) — $6.20 / $2.40 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$2.40
Prob 16.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.24x
Why Stays in the contest through the tempo and should be there when the leaders get tired.
2. Vandoula Jet (No.11) — $7.05 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.27x
Why It's a clean place chance, but you're already covered in the Each Way lane.
3. King Brew (No.3) — $4.95 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.00
Prob 12.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.76x
Why The speed profile keeps him in play, and he should grab a cheque if the race is contested.
Roughie: Chop Suey (No.2) — $26.50 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.9% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.93x
Why Roughie wins if the race collapses into chaos and he gets a late gap, so keep it in the "could" bucket.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, place leverage race
Punty read: This is a place race and it's obvious. Berry Blast (No.7) is short enough to feel tempting, but the value is elsewhere. Leetron (No.2) is your main win angle for the day because she's got the map fit and the tempo doesn't scream "slow to fast" where she'd lose ground. Rubens' Ceiling (No.1) is the key place lever because she looks built to be around the money when the field runs its natural shape. Back To Bondi (No.5) is the roughie that can be sneaky if the race opens up in the straight, and Eternal Romance (No.8) is the type that can run on if they go too hard early.
If it gets even a touch wet, the place horses get even better, because they don't need to win, they just need to survive the chaos.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Leetron (No.2) — $6.20 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $16.50 Each Way ($8.25W + $8.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$16.50
Prob 24.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.80x
Why Map fit and tempo should let her keep rolling, and the win value is doing the talking.
2. Rubens' Ceiling (No.1) — $7.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.38x
Why She's the place lever, but the Each Way primary already covers the big decision.
3. Berry Blast (No.7) — $2.05 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 57.0% | Value: 0.35x
Why Short is short for a reason, and the model thinks she's not reliable enough for the place requirement.
Roughie: Back To Bondi (No.5) — $11.50 / $2.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 40.4% | Value: 1.47x
Why Roughie path is late run plus the race not getting strung out, which is exactly the kind of scenario that produces a late placegetter.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 8,1,7 / 2,1,7,8 / 2,8,11,1 / 2,4,6,12 (192 combos x $0.10 = $20.00) -- 10% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,2,9,12 / 10,5,6,2 / 3,1,11,14 / 2,7,1,5 (256 combos x $0.12 = $32.00) -- 12% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2 / 2 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Energetic (Race 2, No.2) — $2.70
2 - Eightyseven Lad (Race 3, No.2)✗ — $2.00
3 - Rocking In Vegas (Race 5, No.1)✗ — $4.20
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Pinjarra is sitting there on a Good 4 with showers looming like a mate who says 'I'll be there in 10'. It might stay dry, it might get a bit sticky, either way, the races early should be won by the horses that get first a crack at the line. I'm leaning map, gear, and the ones the market is quietly polishing up behind the scenes.
The rail is +2m Entire, which usually keeps things a touch more forgiving, but with gusts and that rain risk crawling around the clock, you're better off backing horses that can hold a position and keep momentum. If they get buried and have to keep searching, they're going to pay for it late. Think speed you can use, not speed you lose.
Now, the spine of the day is a tidy little "Big 3 + Multi" ladder job. We go hard early, then spread to keep it honest. And if you're the type to overthink it, congrats, you've been doing that for years and still haven't learned, come sit next to me.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Good 4, 1200m-1400m card
Rail: +2m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Speed vs Stamina)
Weather: Showers. Possible storm, 21°C (watch for late cloud bursts and short sharp track softening)
Early lane guess: If it's even mildly wet, get on the on pace types early, no sightseeing tours from the back half.
Tempo profile: Moderate pace across most races, so if you're off the speed you're doing extra work, and Pinjarra always charges you for that.
Jockeys to follow:
Clint Johnston-Porter: Sits on pace types with gear and map support, usually gets them travelling.
Ms Tash Faithfull: Gets the job done on the right sort of runner, especially when the market says 'this one'.
Rocky Cheung: Reads the speed and puts horses where they can actually strike.
Stables to respect:
D R Harrison (?? runners): Keeps bringing sound on-pace jobs, and today he's got the blinkered types lining up.
Mack Hall (?? runners): The consistency stable, especially with horses that can navigate midrace traffic.
Darren Taylor (?? runners): When he sneaks in a value runner, it's usually because the horse has more zip than the odds scream.
Punty's take: This card is basically a buffet of "on-pace should be king" plus a few sneaky place levers where the horse might not win but will absolutely be there at the business end. Early races look like they'll sort themselves quickly. Race 1 at 1200m is set up for one of the market leaders to run along and not get bullied at the finish. Race 2 is a straight on pace storyline, and if you've got a runner with the draw to settle midfield and keep rolling, you're in the game.
Mid card turns into the chaos oven. Race 4 and Race 6 are where you can get burned if you assume the short price is automatically invincible. Gear changes matter, and you can see the horses being prepped for a specific trip. Race 6 is particularly spicy because the prices are clustered, and when they bunch like that, the finish is usually a knife fight. Then late, Race 8 is a place leverage playground, because one horse looks built to be hitting the line from the right spot.
What it means for you: Be aggressive where the race shape is clean, and be smart about protecting against being held up. That means, for most of the day, I'm happy backing "top 3" sorts in the exact ordered picks, then sprinkling the roughies where the path to winning is real, not fantasy.
For your betting game plan, think like this: win bets are for the races where the runner's got pace to control and isn't stepping into a traffic nightmare. Place bets are your money-makers today because the card has a heap of horses that'll be in the finish but maybe not all can win, especially with rain risk hovering. If you play quaddies or big multis, keep them tight through the early legs, then go wider only if the horse profile says it can run into the placings regardless of a bit of rain mischief.