Saturday, 11 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Palombaggia likely to take the group as they form up
Punty read: Palombaggia looks like the real deal here, she's coming in under the shine, drawn where she can find the front or be glued to it, and Soft 5 won't be a problem if she keeps her action together. Watermelon Sugar is the other one: if the fav does the hard work, this one should be swooping late with that "don't blink or you'll miss it" finish. And Odds And Ends? Yep, she drifts and she raced wide last time, but on Soft 5 at 1200m, a second run can flip the script fast, especially if she gets a cleaner look into the race.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Palombaggia (No.9) — $2.30 / $1.14 🏆 4TH
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 42.9% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.26x
Why Best race shape, she should be prominent and she's the safest way to get paid in a Soft 5 1200m maiden.
2. Watermelon Sugar (No.7) — $2.65 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Why If it gets messy, she'll be one of the first off the bit at the finish and she's overbuilt for a maiden place.
3. Odds And Ends (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.00
Why Market's drifting against her, which screams "get ready for a better run", and she's value to land top-3.
Roughie: Big Bold Bob (No.4) — $14.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 42.7% | Value: 0.50x
Why This is the "if the speed falls apart, he can run on" play, just not one I want the main stake on.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, stalkers can pick them up in the straight
Punty read: This looks like a race where position matters more than fancy narratives. Withallmygrace and Cowboy are the type to hang around for the top-3 positions, but the big issue is how the field runs together on Soft 5: it can bunch early, then sprint away at the 200m. Autumn Heights is in the mix if she gets a nice economy run, while Poise is the sort of "place or nothing" runner at a price range that can look generous until it isn't.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)
1. Withallmygrace (No.6) — $3.65 / $1.57 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — Cashed, net -$2.04
Prob 22.8% | Place: 65.3% | Value: 0.95x
Why The kind of horse that's built for Soft 5 maidens, likely to be in range early and not stop suddenly.
2. Cowboy (No.3) — $4.72 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Why Solid place chance if the pace stays honest, but not enough value to overinvest when it's already an each-way spine.
3. Cadaques (No.1) — $3.25 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Why He's got enough zip to be involved late, and he can grab a piece of the podium if the inside run comes off.
Roughie: Transatlantic (No.2) — $9.30 / $2.85 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.76x
Why Roughie path is "pace collapses" + he saves ground, possible, but not the main event.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders get first crack at glory
Punty read: This is one of those races where the front may not win, but the front absolutely impacts everything. Khaleesi is a touch short and has the on-pace profile, but Scolera is the one I like to be around the mark, she's the "sit close and pounce" type on a Soft 5 sprint. One More Dance is the leader, and with the way Soft 5 races go, leaders can hang on for a top-3 finish even when they don't win. That's why this feels like a place-driven battleground.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Khaleesi (No.3) — $2.90 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 29.0% | Place: 65.2% | Value: 0.93x
Why She's on the pace and Soft 5 suits horses who don't need perfect footing to keep rolling.
2. Scolera (No.2) — $5.05 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Why She'll be in it early, if she gets a clean run, she can upgrade from place to winning form.
3. Iridescent (No.6) — $3.65 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why She's the type to take benefit if the race strings out, just not the place to be overexposed.
Roughie: Nicconi County (No.1) — $9.50 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 1.53x
Why He wins if he dodges the traffic and finds a narrow run to the line, Soft 5 can gift that.
Race type: Open (2yo), 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, late speed and positioning decide it
Punty read: This is the kind of 1200m where "slow early" makes the race a sprint-chase in the straight. Pellargo looks like the best bet to find the right spot and not get stuck. Latoya's value is tricky because she's also in the mix for the top end, but she can be one of those "too short for win, but placeable" types depending on how the market settles. Ceasars Palace sits there and waits for someone to blink. And Urchella as the roughie? If she lands a spot closer than expected, she can run into the frame like a horror sequel nobody asked for.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.50 pool)
1. Pellargo (No.2) — $3.80 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 27.8% | Place: 63.2% | Value: 1.25x
Why Pace setup suits, slow tempo means you need a horse that can still accelerate without burning out.
2. Latoya (No.10) — $3.90 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.60
Why Big Soft 5 chance to run into the money, she's the kind of place bet that doesn't ask too many questions.
3. Ceasars Palace (No.3) — $5.90 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Why If the track bunches early, she can slot in and run on with the others.
Roughie: Urchella (No.8) — $10.50 / $2.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 42.8% | Value: 1.16x
Why Urchella's path is "needs a clean lane and a late swing", worth respecting, just not the main focus.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, but Soft 5 makes everyone pay for effort
Punty read: This one screams "who can keep their legs under them" rather than "who looks flash at 600m". Beat Of The Sun is the sneaky race-leader-in-disguise for this setup, he's got the backmarker profile but the Soft 5 can turn those late runs into quicksand-to-the-podium. Malleable looks like the horse that can sit in range and wear them down, while All That I Am is the one that could control it early and then get challenged hard late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)
1. Beat Of The Sun (No.3) — $3.42 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.00 Each Way ($4.50W + $4.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 23.8% | Place: 59.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why If the Soft 5 turns the race into a stamina tax, this backmarker's the one sneaking through late.
2. Malleable (No.1) — $5.75 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Why Strong value, but the place side isn't clean enough to force the over-insurance.
3. Cheerful Smile (No.9) — $5.40 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why She's live enough to run a decent one, but this bet type mismatch just isn't worth it.
Roughie: All That I Am (No.2) — $10.50 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 42.7% | Value: 2.09x
Why He's the one who can pop early, soak the pressure, then still be there at the finish.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so tactical midrace positioning is everything
Punty read: This is where you can't get cute, because on Soft 5, every stride costs more. Delz Abeel is priced like a runner who'll either find the front or strike early, but he's also the kind of favourite that can get turned into a "blink-and-you're-behind" victim if he's trapped too far back. Bourbon Proof and Texas are the ones that can sit mid-pack and still sprint through late. What A Yarn's got the best "right run" profile: on the speed map, and more importantly, he looks like he'll keep finding.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. What A Yarn (No.2) — $3.12 / $2.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$50.40
Prob 18.9% | Place: 56.6% | Value: 0.97x
Why On-pace, Soft 5 suited, and he looks like he'll get a genuine chance to hold his momentum to the line.
2. Florenza (No.8) — $2.82 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why She's not far off, but this is a race where you need your key selection to do the heavy lifting.
3. Delz Abeel (No.3) — $2.02 / $1.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why Short favourite vibes, but the value side says "don't overcommit".
Roughie: Sibella (No.9) — $13.25 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 25.1% | Value: 1.32x
Why Needs chaos in the middle, if the leaders punch on too hard, she can fill a gap late.
Race type: Open, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with enough tempo to keep the pressure on
Punty read: Fly My Wey is the guy you want near the action, he's got the class to go around this 2100m Soft 5 without doing everything wrong. Drop Of Something can run a big race if he's allowed to sit in that stalking pocket, and Bosch's right there too with that on-pace profile that can hold up late. Awhina is the roughie-type who can be a sneaky top-3 in the right running line, like someone pulling up a chair in the last minute and taking your seat.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)
1. Fly My Wey (No.1) — $4.65 / $1.72 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Each Way ($2.00W + $2.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$0.20
Prob 16.2% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 0.99x
Why Softer conditions play to his style and he's the type to keep saving ground.
2. Drop Of Something (No.2) — $4.95 / $1.82 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Why Live, but we're not doubling up when the each-way spine's already doing the job.
3. Bosch (No.5) — $6.80 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Why On-pace and he can keep his run through the straight, exactly what you want on Soft 5.
Roughie: Awhina (No.4) — $9.40 / $2.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 48.7% | Value: 1.36x
Why She wins if she gets a clean late shot and the race tempo turns into a brawl.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Delorean led and they'll try it again
Punty read: This is built for on-pace horses. If Ashoka jumps well and keeps a rhythm, she's got the best chance to shove her way into the finish. Beneath The Stars is the one to love for place insurance, she's got the on-pace profile and should be right there when the Soft 5 starts separating the pretenders from the contenders. Pink Gin is a similar story: if she runs true, she gives you that place value without needing to win from impossible positions. Delorean as the roughie is the sort of galloper that can do something annoying, like win at $12 when you thought you'd never get there.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.00 pool)
1. Ashoka (No.1) — $2.88 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 22.9% | Place: 63.1% | Value: 0.89x
Why On-pace profile in a short Soft 5 sprint is gold, she should get every chance to run top end.
2. Beneath The Stars (No.3) — $7.45 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why Value's there, but place dividend bands say don't force it, let her do the running and watch the quinella damage.
3. Pink Gin (No.4) — $5.90 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $11.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Why She's got the best blend of on-pace tactics + Soft 5 fitness for a 1200m cash-in.
Roughie: Delorean (No.12) — $12.75 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 42.8% | Value: 1.58x
Why Roughie path is "wins if something goes wrong up front", and in Soft 5, something always does.
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Palombaggia (Race 1, No.9)✗ — $2.30
2 - Pellargo (Race 4, No.2) — $3.80
3 - Ashoka (Race 8, No.1)✗ — $2.88
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ruakaka on a Soft 5 with the rail true and the track set to punish the overly confident and reward the patient bastards. There's 8 races, 14 scratchings, and that classic North Island mix of genuine speed plus "who the hell knows" late-race chaos. Good. I'm here for it.
Today's vibe: this Soft 5 is the kind where you don't just race your horse… you race the ground. If you get held up, it's not "a little bit annoying", it's "goodnight sweet prince". So we lean into the on-pace types, and we use place betting where the races look like they'll chew through the field.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 5, 1200-2100m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Stamina for a sprint, then sprint for a stamina horse)
Weather: Fine (watch for no-magic turning points, but still keep an eye on how much rain's left in the surface)
Early lane guess: Leaders and stalkers early, then it gets conveyor-belt-y into the straight
Tempo profile: Genuine to moderate, with Soft 5 encouraging pressure rather than doddling
Jockeys to follow:
Jasmine Fawcett, tends to land on the right sort of run through the race and not lose horses for free
Hayley Hassman, sweet hands when the field gets messy, and she doesn't panic mid-race
Masahiro Hashizume, usually puts them in the right spot and keeps the momentum ticking
Stables to respect:
K I Rae (0 runners), this track suits their program and the market often "listens" when they're switched on
Ms M L Bradley (0 runners), lots of these stayers/sprinters types love it when the ground gets heavy
M & K Murdoch (0 runners), often strong with the on-pace job, especially at 1200m where position is king
Punty's take:
Alright, legends, this meeting's got that "soft-footed roulette" energy. The rail's true, so you're not automatically doomed for being wide… but if you're parked, you're paying rent. In Race 1, the speed map looks set for Palombaggia to stalk/press early, and the Soft 5 should help those that can keep the rhythm without doing too much work.
From there we go straight into the meat: Race 4 (2yo) is one of those where the market is half guessing and half knowing, so we take the value levers. Pellargo and Latoya are the names doing the heavy lifting, but Urchella's the kind of rough type who sneaks a place and makes your quinella look like you're a genius.
Race 6 is full of that "Benchmark 75, but the legs feel different" trap. Delz Abeel is priced like a missile, but What A Yarn, Texas and Bourbon Proof are all the types who can slot into the right running and keep finding the line. Then Race 8 is your classic open/soft sprint where Ashoka's the on-pace anchor and Beneath The Stars + Pink Gin are your place insurance against the chaos wave.
What it means for you:
You're betting this meeting in two modes: (1) back the horses that can control their own race, and (2) place bet the ones most likely to run top-3 in a messy Soft 5 finish. Win bets are fine when the favourite is truly on the right side of the race shape, otherwise, you're better off using place and letting the finish do the damage.
My game plan:
- Be aggressive in the early races where the on-pace profile is clear (Race 1 and Race 4).
- Don't overcomplicate the middle, use the locked Top 3 + the one roughie per race, then stop.
- In the Quaddie/Multi lanes (Races 5-8), keep your tickets tight because this track punishes broad-brush exotics. You want coverage, not "fuck it we ball".
Let's go pick up some tickets like we stole them (metaphorically… and legally… hopefully). Gamble responsibly, yeah?