TOP PICKS ON THE MOVE — the picks on this card have shifted 3 times today on scratchings and market moves. Punty's staying nimble; treat this card with care.
Sunday, 23 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1590m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, midfield advantage, keep out of trouble early then start grinding from the 600.
Punty read: This race is begging for the "sits in the right spot, then keeps finding" style. Masakari and Determinato are the ones that can keep their rhythm when the going is chewing up the quick ones. All Too Swift is the market distraction, but with blinkers first time and this Soft 7 chop, I want the horses that look like they've got the better balance for a long maiden slog.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Masakari (No.5) — $2.71 / $1.20 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.50
Prob 28.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Blinkers first time on a horse that can handle the going, plus the run style suits this slow tempo.
2. Prestige Zerprise (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.62 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.03
Prob 19.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why If he gets clear air late, he's the sort that boxes on through the heavy, especially with a better run line.
3. Determinato (No.3) — $4.65 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.19x
Why He makes my shortlist, not my betting slip. Tracked — if he salutes, we'll wear it and the record shows it.
Roughie: Thinking Positive (No.13) — $12.25 / $2.80 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.12x
Why Needs chaos in the back half, but if the leaders get stitched up, he can pick up the pieces.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders have a big say, followers need to be tracking at the right angle.
Punty read: Kokonda has to carry the gate pressure from barrier 18, but the race shape looks perfect for him to either roll forward or at least sit close and pounce late. You Said What is a classic "use the leaders and then hit the finish" type, but the place value is funky enough that I'm not going in for fun. The big danger is Skilled Sailor getting shuffled wide, because this is the sort of race where a bit of traffic becomes a lifelong grudge.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Kokonda (No.2) — $1.94 / $1.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.22
Prob 44.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why Heavy market support and the ability to handle the tempo makes him the one to beat.
2. You Said What (No.11) — $3.35 / $1.30 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. The Cellist (No.13) — $10.50 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: I'mfallinforyou (No.8) — $9.55 / $2.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.92x
Why If the pace clips and she sneaks into clear room, she can snatch a place.
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, sprint is about who can keep momentum when the track tightens.
Punty read: Cha Ching King maps like a horse that has read the script already. With a leader-type profile and a tempo that won't completely melt, he's the one they all measure themselves against. Kensington City is a live "keep honest, then pick up" threat, and Naughty Jamie is the other speed angle, but for me, this is still about the leader doing leader things. Bourdeto is the roughie for a reason, he's the type that can use the right bit of luck and still run over the top of tiring rivals.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Cha Ching King (No.10) — $1.86 / $1.14 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.90
Prob 43.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why Speed maps and the chance to control the tempo at Soft 7.
2. Kensington City (No.3) — $7.20 / $2.15 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 55.8% | Value: 0.95x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Naughty Jamie (No.8) — $7.20 / $2.30 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.57x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Bourdeto (No.5) — $9.50 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.67x
Why If he stays close enough early, he can swoop late with less panic.
Race type: Maiden, 1170m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, short sprint, box seat runners have chances, but you still need luck.
Punty read: Cries And Whispers has blinkers added and the look of a horse that can actually hold a position and not waste runs. Soft 7 at this distance tends to punish the ones that get too far back, so I like the ones that can keep their rhythm. Frosted Amber and Cultural Interest are both "can run into it" types, but I'm only committing EW where it makes sense. Blue Valentine is the bigger value wildcard, and if the pace is messy he can run over tired stock.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Cries And Whispers (No.2) — $4.08 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — Cashed, net -$1.50
Prob 20.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Blinkers, pace, and the ability to box on without needing a miracle.
2. Frosted Amber (No.7) — $5.10 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 56.4% | Value: 0.73x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Cultural Interest (No.12) — $5.10 / $2.00 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 58.6% | Value: 0.84x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Blue Valentine (No.6) — $10.25 / $3.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 37.6% | Value: 1.46x
Why If he gets the right run, he's the one that can jump in and steal it late.
Race type: BM56, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, speed does matter, but better positioned runners still get first crack.
Punty read: Chicago Blues is the one I want as the main engine, he's mapped for a proper contest and the race looks like it suits his pattern. Raven's Silver is in winning form at this track when resuming, which matters a lot on a day like Soft 7, because freshness can turn into sprint acceleration. Paparazzo is the "could be there, but don't force it" type, while Novel Approach is the value roughie because he gives you the possibility of an upset, even if it's not guaranteed.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Chicago Blues (No.3) — $3.55 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 24.1% | Place: 57.3% | Value: 1.09x
Why He's got the speed to be in it and he stays effective when the track goes sticky.
2. Raven's Silver (No.2) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.7% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.07x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Paparazzo (No.1) — $7.20 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.97x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Novel Approach (No.11) — $13.25 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.44x
Why Needs a clear corridor and then he can sprint past tired midfield. That's the path.
Race type: BM56, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so midrace positioning and finishing stamina both matter.
Punty read: This is a "who can keep their legs" race. Brutify is my win anchor, because this type of profile at this track tends to reward the horse that is not doing too much early. Friendzoned is there for the place angle, while Baby Blue looks like he can run a cheeky race if the tempo holds together. Hell's Itch is the roughie, but he needs a long, clear finishing run and today we're not paying for that hope as the main act.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Brutify (No.9) — $3.45 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 23.7% | Place: 61.3% | Value: 1.06x
Why The pace profile suits, and he should be in the right part of the race to extend.
2. Friendzoned (No.14) — $3.95 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.00
Prob 22.0% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 1.09x
Why If the race stays moderate, she can run on into a placing position.
3. Baby Blue (No.13) — $4.30 / $1.65 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.3% | Place: 58.3% | Value: 1.07x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Hell's Itch (No.6) — $15.25 / $3.70 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.3% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.86x
Why He needs the sort of trouble that shuffles the back half into a winning lane.
Race type: BM56, 1590m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the race often turns into a long "who survives the grind" affair.
Punty read: This is one of those handicap where the field doesn't know what it wants to be doing. With the pace slow, I want a horse that can travel with confidence and then put it together late without needing a sprint from nowhere. King Incanto is my lane because he fits that timing. Queen Amanjena is dangerous if she lands the right run. Jenni Intiba can hit the line late too, but I'm not leaning on place value there. Sheer Lunacy is the roughie for the "if she finds a seam" upset.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. King Incanto (No.10) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$0.79
Prob 13.0% | Place: 48.4% | Value: 0.95x
Why Slow tempo suits a horse that can time the run and grind through the middle.
2. Queen Amanjena (No.13) — $6.70 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 42.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Jenni Intiba (No.9) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 61.2% | Value: 0.92x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Sheer Lunacy (No.7) — $11.75 / $3.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 0.81x
Why Needs the right cover and then a late burst. If the tempo stays slow, she's live.
Race type: BM56, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the finish is all about who can keep working when the leaders start to feel heavy.
Punty read: Zeaction is the one I want, because even with the slow tempo, you still need a horse that can get first crack at the line. This is a track where being positioned and not getting stranded is how you win. Lightning Flash is the place play when the race doesn't completely turn into a parade. Idling Behind can run on, but we're not chasing it as a bet today. Pro Velocity is your roughie, but he's got to do a fair bit from wherever he ends up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Zeaction (No.7) — $5.70 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 20.7% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 1.50x
Why Pace profile and timing, he looks like the one to grab it when the race stretches.
2. Lightning Flash (No.2) — $5.10 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.75
Prob 16.3% | Place: 48.6% | Value: 0.98x
Why A placing run is realistic if the leaders come back to earth late.
3. Idling Behind (No.8) — $7.75 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Third line of the market is where place bets go to die slowly — the ledger says so at every price. He carries the exotics and the watch list, not the bankroll.
Roughie: Pro Velocity (No.9) — $10.75 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.10x
Why He's a late runner type, needs a few to tire and a gap to appear. Then he can swipe.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,13,6 / 2,11,13,8 / 10,3,8,5 / 2,6,12,11 (192 combos x $0.18 = $35.00) -- 18% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,11,2,6 / 9,14,13 / 10,7,9,4 / 7,9,2,8,1 (240 combos x $0.27 = $64.00) -- 27% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10 / 2 / 3 / 9 / 10 / 7 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Masakari (Race 1, No.5)✗ — $2.71
2 - Kokonda (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $1.94
3 - Cha Ching King (Race 3, No.10)✓ Won — $1.86
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Wangaratta today is Soft 7, rails true, and the track's got that sticky, cowpat-with-confidence vibe where speed helps, but the ones that still got a kick with their lungs half full are the ones paying your mates back.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 7, 1000m to 2000m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play Leaders With Fortitude)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 14°C, humidity 55%, wind 14km/h NNW (watch for the gusts, they can make finishing runs feel a bit "ridey")
Early lane guess: Races 1 to 4, the "shortlist" lanes look like the safe starting point, then we go wider after that because the later races get chaos-y fast.
Tempo profile: Generally slow to moderate, so if someone jumps and controls early, they can hold the party together late.
Jockeys to follow:
Lachlan King: keeps showing up in the big moments, and when he gets a run to work with, he makes it count.
Beau Mertens: in these maiden and BM sprints, he can squeeze a lot out of a horse without turning the race into a rodeo.
Ryan Hurdle: calm operator types, and when the map suits, he is lethal late.
Stables to respect:
Ben Brisbourne (3 runners): the "pick your poison" style, multiple chances, and the winners are usually in the right part of the race.
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (3 runners): they pop up with live chances in these soft conditions, gear and intent usually make sense.
Andrew Dale (3 runners): he has that knack for having them ready for the right call, especially when the race shape lines up.
Punty's take:
This is one of those meetings where the early races reward the punters who actually think about tempo, not just vibes. Soft 7 at Wangaratta tends to make the sprint races more about position and balance, and the 2000m stuff more about who can keep rolling when the race starts stretching out like a Netflix series you promised yourself you would stop at episode two.
Race 1 is a classic maiden plate where the leaders might not sprint away, but a horse that can sit on the right tempo and not get choked up has the biggest say. Determinato and Masakari look like the "keep going and survive the heaviness" types. Then in Race 3, we get that genuine pace look, and Cha Ching King is exactly the sort that maps to do the work and steal the show.
The real fun starts in the back end. Race 7 is a chaos handicap, wide open, and Race 8 is where I'm happy to follow a horse that can do the running when the pace is slow. Zeaction is sitting right on the sort of profile where he can get first crack at the line, and that's how you bank a decent day without needing a miracle every race.
What it means for you:
My game plan is simple, I'm building a spine out of the Big 3 winners so you are not chasing phantoms all arvo. Then for each race, I'm backing the top three that fit the race shape, and using the roughie as the "one horse gets the run of the race and you look like a genius" lever.
Aggression wise, you can be confident in the early shortlist lanes, especially Races 1 to 4 where the pace and class line up clean. Races 5 to 8 are where you keep your head, because that's where one slow start, one check, and the whole ticket feels cursed. That said, the late races are where Soft 7 can turn value into money fast, if you respect position.
So, don't overthink it. Get on the horses that look like they're going to get a real trip. If you are going to take chaos, take it where the map gives you an actual reason, not just because it's a long shot with a cool name.