Wednesday, 14 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, expected MIDFIELD with Shenton Road (1.14) pace edge
Punty read:
This opener is a slow-motion chess game. With the early tempo flagged as slow, it usually means midfield horses have all the time in the world to find their lanes, and the ones that can sit without getting boxed in get first crack at the run-in. Bourbonontherocks has the best of it from the map, she's on-pacing and can control where the race gets stretched. Saints 'n' Sinners and Shenton Road are the classier "positions matter" dangers, they can come into the finish off a decent trip. As for roughies, this is the sort of maiden where a forgotten runner with better positioning can sweep the line when the leaders start doing the group chat shuffle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Bourbonontherocks (No.9) — $2.90 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 26.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why Maps to sit on the speed and the betting suggests she's got the most straightforward path in a slow race.
2. Saints 'n' Sinners (No.10) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 61.3% | Value: 0.84x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Shenton Road (No.11) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.68x
Why Backmarker profile can work if the tempo stays dull, and she's got the late sprint mechanics.
Roughie: Lohtse (No.14) — $11.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why If the back end gets enough room late, this one's a roughie snatch contender.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders help some, pressers get paid
Punty read:
This is a 1200m where the speed has a job to do, and the weather risk actually plays into your hand because gusts can stretch horses late. Luna Will Do is the clear "get-everything" type from the map, she can park in the right spot without doing gymnastics. Pucker Up and Dixie Doo look like classic challengers who can run on for the money if the race isn't run too hard early. I'm treating the money around Luna Will Do as a loud whisper that she's the horse you build around, and if the track stays dry, she'll be the one still making ground at the line.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Luna Will Do (No.8) — $3.00 / $1.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 28.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.04x
Why Pace-map fits and she's got the run-on conditions stitched up for 1200m.
2. Pucker Up (No.11) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 44.6% | Value: 1.08x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Dixie Doo (No.4) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.55x
Why She's the best "value route" if the leaders hold on a touch too long.
Roughie: Andalady (No.6) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 1.04x
Why If she gets a clean look through, she can grab a slice late at odds.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, speed pressure all over the shop
Punty read:
1000m handicap at Ascot is basically a punch-up on the timeline. With the pace hot, the inside speed and the ones nearest it are the danger zone. Levati Dimezzo is the value play that fits the fast turnover sprint, and Hansadios and London Rose are the sort that can slide into the right spot and keep grinding. Queen Diva is the low-probability oddball in the mix, but in a 1000m, anything that can get involved early can slap on for a cheeky place.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Levati Dimezzo (No.4) — $4.40 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$1.47
Prob 21.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.18x
Why Heaps of the right stuff for a sprint handicap, and the pace setup doesn't take him out of the equation.
2. Hansadios (No.10) — $7.00 / $2.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.70x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. London Rose (No.8) — $10.00 / $2.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.69x
Why Drawn for an on-speed trip, and when the pace gets honest, she'll be right there.
Roughie: Vino Miss (No.9) — $19.00 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.85x
Why She needs the race shape to fragment, but if it does, she's the outsider who can still be rolling.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Perfume Princess is the early advantage
Punty read:
This is where handicaps love to trick you. Moderate pace means you can get caught thinking you need to be on the speed, then suddenly a horse sitting close just cruises into the clear late. Call Me Invincible and Perfume Princess look like the kinds who can stalk without burning, while Artie's Storm is the more electric option and the market's waving a red flag that he's hard to ignore. Jemconi is there too, but with some warning signals around value perceptions, I'm keeping him more as a saver-type rather than the main squeeze.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Artie's Storm (No.9) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 20.8% | Place: 58.6% | Value: 1.40x
Why Better chance to keep travelling through the line, plus the short price is backed by form sense.
2. Perfume Princess (No.11) — $4.80 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.87x
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Call Me Invincible (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why Stalks the right spots and can hit the line hard if the leaders get a touch too confident.
Roughie: Run Pattie Run (No.6) — $9.00 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 35.6% | Value: 1.07x
Why Needs a bit of luck in running but can still pick off tiring types late.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Mr Mellon is the leader and the race shape matters
Punty read:
1400m at Ascot is where one good traveller can dominate if the leaders set it up and the backmarkers never get the gift of space. Mr Mellon is the obvious "front quarter" play, he's drawn barrier 1 and the map says LEADER, so he's likely to control the tempo. Chino Bay is your value challenger, and Swift Talker has the finish to make it a race. I'm not overcomplicating this one, the way the run is mapped, if Mr Mellon handles the big moment, he'll be hard to get past.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Mr Mellon (No.8) — $2.80 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 33.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why Leader pressure and a strong overall profile, he's the one most likely to be there at the end with something left.
2. Swift Talker (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.7% | Place: 52.4% | Value: 0.96x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Chino Bay (No.5) — $8.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.24x
Why If the race goes two speeds, he's the value punch through the gap.
Roughie: Manzor Magic (No.3) — $15.00 / $3.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.26x
Why Roughie path is simple, chaos late, and this one's got enough to get home if things collapse up front.
Race type: Rst 0 Met Win-LY, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, leaders have their say
Punty read:
This is 1600m, and that means you can't just chase one good section. You need a horse that can sit on the right patch of track and keep responding when the others start to flatten. Playing Solo and Admire Astra are the key front-third profiles, Prince Epaulette is the value stalker type, and Acta Non Verba is the one who can make it messy late. Here For Cheques is the big mover in the betting picture and that tells me he's being set for a genuine tilt at the money, even with a few other live runners around him.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Playing Solo (No.14) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 16.0% | Place: 59.1% | Value: 0.89x
Why Gets a midfield into a workable trip, and 1600m suits horses that can keep the engine on through the last third.
2. Admire Astra (No.1) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.92x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Prince Epaulette (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.09x
Why Stays in the race, and the ON-PACE trip gives him a punch chance if the others wobble.
Roughie: Ain'tsobad (No.5) — $19.00 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 20.8% | Value: 0.86x
Why Roughie angle is the big finish, if the leaders are still there at the bell, he can run over the top late.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Forgot The Rock is the key runner to watch
Punty read:
Slow pace at 1600m is where the "timing" matters most, you can get stuck if you go too early. Forgot The Rock is mapped BACKMARKER, so the job is to wait, then unleash late when everyone else is doing the tired-walk shuffle. Sweet Issy looks like the speed-versus-pressure type, and Dynastic Lass is the on-pacer who can hit the line if she's not forced too wide. Ginger And Tonic is around the mark for place players, but I like the way Forgot The Rock lines up as the kind that can stalk just off the tempo and then get brave late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Forgot The Rock (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$3.25
Prob 20.2% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 2.02x
Why Slow tempo helps his backmarker style, and the gear tweak plus recent win form screams "wait and strike".
2. Dynastic Lass (No.9) — $3.50 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.0% | Place: 58.6% | Value: 0.77x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sweet Issy (No.2) — $3.40 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 50.5% | Value: 0.74x
Why Quick enough to be dangerous, but the win value isn't great for extra cover.
Roughie: More Heroic (No.10) — $11.00 / $3.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.89x
Why Needs the field to bunch up late and for her to get clear air, then she can run into the money.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 9,11,4 / 8,1,2,5,3 / 14,1,2,7 / 3,9,2,10 (240 combos x $0.21 = $50.00) -- 21% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Bourbonontherocks (Race 1, No.9)✗ — $2.44
2 - Luna Will Do (Race 2, No.8) — $2.76
3 - Mr Mellon (Race 5, No.8) — $2.60
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ascot's got a dry track right now, but the sky's got that "late shower incoming" energy, rail is +10m and the wind's doing a bit of a favour for the closers. This is a day where you want speed early, but you also want to be ruthless with your valuing, because the market is jumpy as fuck.
I'm building the spine around three home-and-hose winners, then I'm hunting the spots where the bigger prices line up with the track's run-on style. Good 4, rail out +10, moderate NE gusts, and that means the back half of the race can get spicy if horses are positioned and not trapped in traffic.
Alright, let's cook this like a ratbag kitchen special. Deep breath, crack a drink, and let's go race-by-race.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ascot, 1200m-1600m card
Rail: +10m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Fence-friendly with run-on closers)
Weather: Late shower or two, 30°C, moderate NE wind (watch for late rain risk at 17:00, 20:00, 23:00)
Early lane guess: Rail-saving stalkers then get out late
Tempo profile: Slow early, then a sustained sprint with wind helping runners down the straight
Jockeys to follow:
Chris Parnham: loads of rides today, usually rolls coverage through the card
Clint Johnston-Porter: often backs the right horse for the right run style
Ms Holly Watson: big day riding, and she lands on the right blends of pace and class
Stables to respect:
Simon Miller (6 runners): consistent fit and always in the hunt when the market clicks
N D Parnham (4 runners): sharp with maiden and jump-in races, keep an eye on them early
A G Durrant (3 runners): knows how to get them switched on, especially when the track suits
Punty's take:
Ascot is set up for horses that can keep pulling at the finish, the rail's out +10 so it's not as brutal sticking to the fence, but it still pays to be smart about where you are turning for home. Early tempo in Race 1 is slow, so the "sit midfield and pounce" types get a real shot. Then the later sprints get a bit more serious, where being on pace is usually the difference between winning and playing follow-the-leader TV.
Market moves are telling a story all over the card. Artie's Storm is firming hard in Race 4, Here For Cheques is getting hammered back in Race 6, and Forgot The Rock is shortening in Race 7. Meanwhile, a few drifters in the first two races look like they're getting left behind in the betting, and that's where you can snag value instead of paying overs.
What it means for you:
My punting plan is simple. Win bets where the map and form line up, then protect with place where the race shape can get messy, especially with the late rain risk. If the track holds true to Good 4, you'll see finishers keep finding something. If the showers pop, I want horses that can sustain through the top of the straight rather than needing a perfect clear run from two lengths back.
Banker-ish material today looks like Mr Mellon in Race 5, Luna Will Do in Race 2, and Bourbonontherocks in Race 1. After that, you can widen a little, but don't go full goblin on the exotic lanes. I'm building a quaddie around the right mix of "tight legs" and "wide legs", because one bastard miss kills the whole ticket anyway.