Wednesday, 14 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Umizoomi is the expected front, Admiral Vos is right thereabouts with the engine
Punty read:
This is a maiden where the Soft 5 can expose any horse that's too loose early. Umizoomi looks like the natural "get to the front" type, but in this sort of race, the real danger is the horse that's drawn well, settles close, and doesn't panic when the track takes a bite. Admiral Vos has the shortest odds for a reason, and he's got the race shape working for him, no drama, just do the job.
I do like Purple Strike if there's pace on, because that kind of horse can sit in the pocket and pounce once the pack starts to carry. Stamos is your value check, but in a wet maiden, you want the horse to have a plan to get position. The roughie path is Umizoomi, because if the race does crystallise up front, he's right in the window.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Admiral Vos (No.11) — $2.15 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$17.25
Prob 39.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why best draw-and-tactics combo, and he's built for this kind of "grind and win" Soft 5 maiden
2. Purple Strike (No.12) — $3.70 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Stamos (No.2) — $9.50 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why value angle and market says he's possible, just needs the right trip and some contact luck
Roughie: Umizoomi (No.5) — $14.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.99x
Why if the leaders go hard and hold, he's the one that can keep finding when others start slogging
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Katestrophic looks like the pilot
Punty read:
This one's about early position and whether the Soft 5 makes everyone stumble into the race like it's a school disco. Boomstruck is the obvious "keep in the hunt" horse, and that's what you want at 1200m, a clean trip with enough speed to stay involved.
Not Many If Any is your sneaky type for value if he pings late, and The Widowmaker is the roughie because maidens love chaos and this one's got enough tools to make it interesting if the race falls apart in the last 200. Saja is too steady for me at the current money, but she can still run a cheeky place.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Boomstruck (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.85 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 17.0% | Place: 45.1% | Value: 0.66x
Why gets a good run type, and this track suits horses that can keep moving without burning out
2. Saja (No.13) — $5.00 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.84x
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Not Many If Any (No.8) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.89x
Why if the pace is genuine, he's in the right zone to pick up pieces late
Roughie: The Widowmaker (No.9) — $11.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.20x
Why big price swing if he gets room, and on Soft 5 that late gap can appear fast
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Dicko's Dance and Bulldozer Betty up near the front
Punty read:
1400m on a Soft 5 is the perfect distance for a horse that can settle, keep contact, and then keep pushing through the mud like it owes you money. Royal Assett is the one I want, because he's short enough to trust but not so short you feel like you're paying retail for regret.
High Goal is the kind of runner that might get involved early, but in maidens over this trip, the winner is usually the one that doesn't throw away the race in the middle stages. Vodka And Caviar is in the mix if the race turns into a grind, and Whistlejacket is your roughie if the backmarkers get an opening.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Royal Assett (No.10) — $3.20 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 30.9% | Place: 58.2% | Value: 1.09x
Why maps best to survive the first half, then he can run on without getting murdered by the footing
2. High Goal (No.1) — $7.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.56x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Vodka And Caviar (No.9) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why can run a race into the placing with the right timing
Roughie: Whistlejacket (No.5) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why if the leaders tire early, he can slingshot through the gaps
Race type: Restricted 60, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Horrie and Clew Bay up front
Punty read:
Restricted 60s on a Soft 5 are funny, the best horse on paper still has to earn it, but the ones that can keep working late are the ones that repay. Clew Bay is the front-running magnet, and when you've got a horse that can stay in control of the tempo, you don't complicate things.
Watermelon Sugar is the value lever if the race is run honestly, and Happy Venture is a danger if he gets a clean early run and doesn't get trapped in the mud. Stage Three is the roughie, because if the field strings out and he's given room to unwind, he can do damage.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Clew Bay (No.8) — $3.30 / $1.57 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 21.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.94x
Why maps to get the lead and keep it, and Soft 5 rewards those who don't lose rhythm
2. Happy Venture (No.3) — $7.50 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.30x
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Watermelon Sugar (No.5) — $7.00 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.11x
Why strong chance to be thereabouts, but I'd rather not overspend on the price
Roughie: Stage Three (No.11) — $12.00 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.44x
Why needs everything to fall his way, but he's got the value ceiling if it does
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, a few on-pacers ready to have a go
Punty read:
1600m on Soft 5 is where maidens turn into stayers overnight. The Pen Is Mighty and Unswayed look like they'll be in the mix early, but I'm backing the ones with the best mix of position and momentum. Passion 'n' Pride is the pick, and I like the way she's set up to place under pressure.
Compulsory offers value, and Unswayed is a weapon if the race stays honest and he doesn't get swallowed. Miles Better is your roughie because his price suggests he can sneak into the trifecta if the pace collapses and the backmarkers get an inch.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.00 pool)
1. Unswayed (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $8.00 Each Way ($4.00W + $4.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 15.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.78x
Why strong on paper but the return side isn't worth doubling up again
2. Passion 'n' Pride (No.11) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.74x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Compulsory (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.41x
Why great value signal, but it's not the one I want to split the risk with here
Roughie: Miles Better (No.4) — $13.00 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.4% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.70x
Why the path is simple, if the leaders tear themselves up, he swoops
Race type: Maiden, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, and this is where backmarkers can suddenly become hero's
Punty read:
2100m Slow pace is basically an invitation to the ones that can keep saving ground and then unleash late. The Darzi and Choreomania are the two I want, because they have that "Soft 5 grind, then strike" profile. When the tempo is slow, wide and late runs can become extremely dangerous, because horses have more petrol at the end.
Concise is there for value if he gets a run into the race, but I'd rather back the ones that look like they can sustain the finish. Casa Rubick is the roughie, because on a slow map, even a mid-pack move can turn into a winning one if the field starts moving in single file.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)
1. The Darzi (No.5) — $3.40 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $9.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 23.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.12x
Why backmarker buying power, plus he can sweep late when the leaders go stationary
2. Choreomania (No.8) — $4.00 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.26x
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Concise (No.3) — $7.50 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 30.9% | Value: 1.04x
Why decent place chance if he gets clear, but I prefer the Darzi over the top
Roughie: Casa Rubick (No.2) — $13.00 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why if he can pick up at the 300m mark, he can bolt on and steal the slot
Race type: Benchmark 65, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Sonoran and She Suits Herself likely prominent
Punty read:
This is where Benchmark 65s get spicy, because the speed is there, but the finish is long enough for class to show. Sweet But Psycho is the one I'm trusting, he's got the best combination of staying power and late push, and he's the sort that can win even if the race doesn't suit perfectly.
She Suits Herself and Sonoran are the two that can keep coming, and if the tempo stays moderate, they can be the ones slicing through late. Cosmic Pursuit is the roughie because sometimes the ON-PACE guys need one run to go right, and then they're charging at the right time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.00 pool)
1. Sweet But Psycho (No.6) — $3.00 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 24.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why backmarker who can still move, Soft 5 suits a late run where others tire
2. She Suits Herself (No.11) — $7.00 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.28x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Sonoran (No.1) — $7.50 / $2.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why handy type that can hold his ground and run through the line
Roughie: Cosmic Pursuit (No.4) — $9.00 / $3.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.02x
Why if the race compresses, ON-PACE runners can get an opening and go hard
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Digger is up close with Highly Anticipated leading types
Punty read:
1400 on Soft 5 is a constant negotiation with fatigue, you want horses that can keep their feet and keep their confidence. Bethany Dee is the pick, and she's the kind of horse that's hard to knock because she's got the right profile to keep building momentum late.
Our Solana is your main danger, because when he gets a decent run, he turns the last third into a real contest. Hell Island is a value threat that can sit and pounce, and Frozen Fortune is the roughie, purely because if the race goes pear-shaped early, these ON-PACE types can suddenly look like geniuses.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Bethany Dee (No.4) — $2.45 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 39.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.26x
Why best all-rounder in the field, and the Soft 5 won't hurt her style
2. Our Solana (No.10) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.30x
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Hell Island (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why can run into the finish if she's not stuck wide too long
Roughie: Frozen Fortune (No.7) — $14.00 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 24.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why roughie job is to strike if the pace scrambles, then keep going when others fade
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Erin Go Bragh looking like the leader
Punty read:
This one is about who can handle the genuine tempo without running out of runway at the business end. Tiantai is the favourite for a reason, and she's set up to control the narrative from a position that doesn't require heroics.
Thorax is the next threat, he's the type that can run on through the line, and Erin Go Bragh is the on-speed danger if she can keep rolling without being forced to sprint too early. Rocking is the roughie, because sometimes these midfield types find themselves in the right pocket and then the whole field becomes a traffic jam behind them.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Tiantai (No.11) — $3.10 / $1.52 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 23.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.04x
Why on pace enough to stay involved, and she's the one I trust most to finish clean
2. Thorax (No.10) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 40.2% | Value: 1.20x
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Erin Go Bragh (No.1) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.84x
Why leader type who can fade if it gets too quick, and we need pace stability
Roughie: Rocking (No.5) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.23x
Why if the front bunch starts to fold early, he's got the late slicing angle
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Khando is around the lead zone
Punty read:
This is the sort of 1600 where the leaders get a chance, but the winners are usually the ones that can keep their speed without getting swallowed by Soft 5 fatigue. Fastdeeldun is my main bet, he's on-pace, and that means he can keep momentum through the tricky sections where other horses lose ground.
El Arish is the other dangerous one, and State The Obvious can absolutely pick up if he gets a cleaner run than the last time he had to do too much. Emmy Dazzler is the roughie, because when she finds her rhythm, she's the one that can keep going at the finish and make it look easier than it was.
Top 3 + Roughie ($5.50 pool)
1. Fastdeeldun (No.2) — $6.00 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 19.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why on pace in a genuine tempo, he's the type that keeps grinding when others stop
2. El Arish (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.01x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. State The Obvious (No.14) — $6.00 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.01x
Why the form is there, just not enough value for the win ticket today
Roughie: Emmy Dazzler (No.8) — $16.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.87x
Why she's the value chaos option, if the pace holds on, she can still run them down
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,1,9,5 / 8,5,3,11 / 11,6,2,4 / 8,5,3,2 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 6,1,11,4 / 4,10,2,7 / 11,10,1,5 / 2,1,14,8 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,6,2,4 / 8,5,3,2 / 6,1,11,4 / 4,10,2,7 / 11,10,1,5 / 2,1,14,8 (4096 combos x $0.004883 = $20.00) -- 0.49% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Admiral Vos (Race 1, No.11)✓ Won — $2.00
2 - Royal Assett (Race 3, No.10)✗ — $2.70
3 - Fastdeeldun (Race 10, No.2) — $4.60
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Tauranga on a Soft 5 with the rail out 6m, rain hovering like a bad bloke at the TAB kiosk. This track is gonna chew up time in the first half, then reward the ones that can keep grinding when the footing goes full treacle. Expect races where the speed is there, but the finish is where reputations get either polished or properly wrecked.
I'm looking at this meeting like a double feature, Race 3 to 10 is the main cinema and the earlier races are the warm-up acts that still bite you if you underestimate them. The pacing is generally doing enough, so when you see a horse that maps forward, you back it with your whole chest. When it's drifting in the market, you pay attention, because sometimes that's just punters getting bored, and sometimes it's the universe whispering "wait, champ".
Let's get stuck in, I'll give you the Big 3 spine, then walk every race, with a roughie to punch the ticket and hopefully send your mates into the group chat like it's the footy final.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 5, 1200m-2100m card
Rail: Out 6m
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play speed-holding, finish-long)
Weather: Fine (watch for late rain carnage)
Early lane guess: leaders and handy stalkers, with the occasional swooper that's saved ground
Tempo profile: Genuine early speed, then it's all about who still has a button to press late
Jockeys to follow:
Masahiro Hashizume: rides plenty of live ones, and when he's on, he usually means it
Sam McNab: consistent in these fields, and often lands on the right horse at the right time
Tom Wigram: gets them moving early and doesn't overcook the tactics
Stables to respect:
S B Marsh (9 runners): keeps turning up with horses that handle themselves in the wet
S & E Clotworthy (4 runners): has the knack of getting value out of middle-distance and staying power types
Ms C Cameron (4 runners): jumpers, maidens, and improvers, she brings a plan and a punch
Punty's take:
This meeting is Soft 5 plus rain risk, so the obvious "fastest horse on paper" isn't always the winner, it's the horse that can keep working when the ground turns from wet to mush. Where you'll make money is backing runners that look like they'll get a fair crack at the race shape, mainly on-pace or close enough to avoid getting bogged at the wrong part of the track.
Market-wise, I'm circling short-to-mid prices that are firming, but I'm also keeping an eye on any horse that's moving out because it can signal a change, sometimes a gear thing, sometimes just connections protecting their pride. Still, with genuine pace in a lot of these races, you don't want to be too far back unless the horse has shown it can pick them off through the mud.
My spine is built around the ones that map the right way and look like they can be first into the contact zone, then finish the job. Then I'll throw a roughie in each race, because this is Tauranga, and you don't watch from the couch when the track is handing out chaos for free.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive early with your Win bets in the races where the leader type is drawn to run their race, especially over the shorter trips. If the tempo is genuine, the on-pace horses are the first ones I want to see in your money, because they get the best chance to keep momentum instead of losing it in the middle stages.
When you get a value angle, that's where you press. The way this track plays, a horse sitting second or third, saving ground, and not getting swallowed by the pack can absolutely turn a "should be there" into a "nah, it won". For your multi/sequence, keep the legs sensible, wide fields are where quaddies go to die, and Big 6s are basically a group chat argument in wager form.
Alright, let's start printing.