For all of Punty's tips for Ballarat, head to https://punty.ai/tips/ballarat-2026-10-23

Rightio Loose Units, Ballarat is on a Good 4 with a fine day, nil rain and a gusty 37km/h breeze doing its best to annoy everyone. Nine races, 117 runners and a card that runs from 1000m sprints out to a 1600m test. The pace map is a mixed bag, with a few slow-motion races and a couple where the speed is loaded, so you'll need to be across each race rather than treating the day as one big lump.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Ballarat, 1000m to 1600m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (rainfall nil)
Weather: Fine, live conditions gusts 37km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Mostly moderate, with Races 2, 4 and 8 rated slow and Race 9 the one genuine-pace race of the day. Semantics and Sharing Moments are the only two genuine leaders in Race 7, and M'lady Rose is the lone leader in Race 9.
Jockeys to follow:
Beau Mertens: 10 rides on the card, the most of anyone, and he's got Smart Little Miss, Prolocutor and Open Fire among them, so there's plenty of work for him to do.
Declan Bates: 8 rides today, including Miss Capri, Perfect Dismount and Jenni You Think, a good, busy book for a rider who gets his horses out and about.
John Allen: 8 rides, with Sistine Tunnel, Affair D'or and M'lady Rose in the mix, so he's on several of the day's more interesting chances.
Stables to respect:
C Maher (12 runners): The biggest team on the card by a mile. Nialah, Vulcana, Invisible Magic and Russian Duchess are all in the mix, so they'll be hard to ignore when the races get tight.
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (6 runners): Resonant, Kirkstone, Incoherent and Neziha are the names to remember, with the stable spread across the card.
Dominic Sutton (4 runners): Southern Sway, Scorching Beauty, Chapados and Luminary Miss give them a presence in both the sprints and the middle trips.

Punty's take: The speed is the story today. Race 2 and Race 4 have slow pace on the map, which means the backmarkers have to get their act together quickly or go home with nothing. Race 9 is the only one where the speed is genuinely loaded, with M'lady Rose the lone leader and Invisible Magic sitting in the midfield on the advantaged side of the ledger. Race 7 has two leaders, Sharing Moments and Semantics, and the way that shakes out will tell you a lot about the rest of that race. This isn't a day where you chase every roughie, but there are some juicy ones if you can read the traffic.

Races 2 to 5 form the early quaddie and the back half, Races 6 to 9, form the main quaddie. My numbers put Race 3 and Race 5 as the two most open races among the bankers. Race 5 has Nishioka at the top of the market, but everything behind him is a fair chance on paper. Race 1 and Race 2 are the first two tests, so keep your focus on the early market and don't let the first race fool you.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on Brookelinda and Nialah, two horses with clear run-downs in their races. Protect the bankers in Race 5 and Race 7 by keeping your roughies small. Race 9 is a good one to have the most on, because the pace will matter more than the price. Stay with the locked bets and don't go chasing lower-rated runners just because they're cheaper. The exotics only come in where the pre-calculated value says so, so use that as the filter. Keep your stakes sensible and enjoy the afternoon.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Nishioka (Race 5, No.12) — $2.35
Why Ethan Brown on the favourite, and he's been second in both starts so far, so he's knocking on the door. The short price is what it is, but the form is clean and the market agrees.
2 - Semantics (Race 7, No.11) — $1.90
Why The leader in a race with only one other genuine speed, and he won his last start at Bendigo over 1000m. Short, but he's the one who controls the tempo here.
3 - Nialah (Race 2, No.6) — $3.90
Why On-pace in a slow race that suits her on the map, and she has been placed in her last start at Bendigo after a couple of bad runs that had excuses. The market has her right, so this is about the race shape.
Multi: $10 × 17.41 = $174.10

Race 1 – Epijoint Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Pace advantaged: Brookelinda, Moon God. Kokeshi, Hegely and Flash Inquiry are the ON-PACE runners and will set the tempo. Brookelinda is MIDFIELD, Moon God MIDFIELD, Contemplate Kate MIDFIELD, Charlotte's Web BACKMARKER. Charlotte's Web, Corsage, My Infinity, Southern Sway and With Benefits have no map position on file, so I'm not claiming one for them.
Punty read: Brookelinda is the one I'm putting money on. She's MIDFIELD in a moderate-paced sprint that advantages her on the map, and the tongue tie going on for the first time is worth a look as a fix for a horse that might have been fighting the bit. Ethan Brown is riding with a 27 percent strike rate over the last 100 rides at the track, and A & S Freedman have been hot. Her last start was an 8th at Sandown-Hillside, which the data flags as a medical/physical issue, so she's not an easy one to read off that run alone. The danger is Corsage at $3.70, who has the market backing him, and With Benefits, who has the same tongue tie going on but has been cold for Beau Mertens lately. Kokeshi and Hegely will be doing the early work, and if they go too hard, the midfield runners get the sweet spot.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Brookelinda (No.6) — $4.00 / $1.72
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $42.90 if it wins ($30.00 win + $12.90 place), $12.90 if it only places
Prob 26.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.06x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a moderate-paced sprint, tongue tie on for the first time, and a trainer and jockey combination who have been going well.
2. Corsage (No.7) — $3.70 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.63x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. With Benefits (No.11) — $5.00 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie on for the first time, Beau Mertens riding, and C W McDonald's runners are always worth a look. Mertens has been cold lately over the last 100 rides, so it's a question for the jockey as much as the horse.

Roughie: Southern Sway (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 29.4% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why Billy Egan has been hot over the last 100 rides and Dominic Sutton's stable has a solid strike rate at the track. If the early speed burns out and the midfield gets stuck behind the leaders, he can get home late.

Race 2 – Manhari Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Pace advantaged: Chilly Sav, Hurricane Girl, Miss Capri, Nialah and Prolocutor. Nialah is the only ON-PACE runner on the map, so she'll be the one setting the tone. Anglais, Hurricane Girl and Scorching Beauty are MIDFIELD. Chilly Sav, Miss Capri, Prolocutor, Renaissance Girl, Ruby From Zadar and Vulcana are BACKMARKERS.
Punty read: Nialah is my pick. She's the one who sits on the speed in a slow race, which is exactly what she wants, and the trainer and jockey combination is working. Her last two runs had excuses in them (held up at Caulfield Heath, slow start at Flemington), and her latest was a 3rd at Bendigo, 0.9 lengths off the winner. Vulcana at $3.30 is the second bet in the market and she's a backmarker in a race that should be slow, so she could be the one who charges late if the speed holds up. Watch Anglais, who gets blinkers on for the first time, and Renaissance Girl, with winkers going on for the first time. The one that makes me nervous is Chilly Sav at $151.00, who gets bandages, a nasal strip and winkers all on first time, but he's a 0-0-0 horse so far.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Nialah (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.62
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), collects $35.88 if it wins ($25.35 win + $10.53 place), $10.53 if it only places
Prob 28.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.10x Steady since tip
Why On-pace in a slow race, the advantage is on her side, and the last start was a 3rd at Bendigo with an excuse on the one before it. The one to beat.
2. Vulcana (No.11) — $3.50 / $1.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.7% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Anglais (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.59x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers go on for the first time and he's been placed twice in his three career starts. Ethan Brown is riding and he's been hot at the track.

Roughie: Hurricane Girl (No.4) — $11.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a slow race that rewards anyone who can get into the action, and she's been a 3rd at Kilmore over 1207m. Luke Currie is riding and her stable has a solid strike rate.

Race 3 – Peter Tobin Funerals Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Pace advantaged: Imminent Touch, Endemic and Star Je Taime. Pace disadvantaged: Latassa and Noble Fox. Dame Of Dubai, Latassa and Noble Fox are ON-PACE. Endemic, Star Je Taime, Wavelets, Fine And Sunny, Pandie Pandie, Enticement and Imminent Touch are BACKMARKERS. Open Fire, Hot Pot Dot, Grandstraz and Moonlight Romance are MIDFIELD.
Punty read: Endemic is the one I'm backing. He's a backmarker in a moderate-paced 1600m that suits closers, and the pace advantage on the map is in his favour. His latest was a 3rd at Ballarat over 1500m, 1 length off the winner, and that's a good line to take into a more open race. Dame Of Dubai will be on the speed in a race where the map is not in her favour, so she's a danger if she gets the run she wants. Star Je Taime has the pace advantage and a 3rd at Kyneton last start. Wavelets is the longshot who gets a run at a moderate pace. The one I'd keep an eye on is Latassa, who's on the speed but has been dragged down by the map.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Endemic (No.8) — $3.90 / $1.72
Bet $13.00 Win, return $50.70
Prob 24.8% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker with the pace advantage in a moderate race, and his last two runs have been strong. Luke Currie is riding and he's the one to beat.
2. Dame Of Dubai (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.63x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Star Je Taime (No.14) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why The pace advantage is there, and a 3rd at Kyneton last start is the sort of line you want to see. Lachlan Neindorf can ride a finish.

Roughie: Wavelets (No.7) — $11.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a moderate-paced 1600m, and John Allen can get a horse into a finish. Path to victory is a fast-finishing run down the outside if the front runners tire.

Race 4 – AC Accounting Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Pace advantaged: Celestial Blue, Resonant, Sabrina and Scoville. Boy From Zadar and Perfect Dismount are ON-PACE. Celestial Blue, Meritorious, Resonant and Scoville are MIDFIELD. All Eyes On Erin, Celestaria, Engulf, Sabrina and Unkechaug are BACKMARKERS.
Punty read: Resonant is my top pick. Midfield in a slow race, with the pace advantage on her side, and she's the one with the best sectional on the card for the last 400m. The 2nd at Pakenham Synthetic 1000m, 0.2 lengths off the winner, was a strong run. Celestial Blue is the other one who the map likes, and he's been a 2nd at Geelong. Unkechaug is a backmarker in a slow race, which means he has to come off the pace. The one I'd be wary of is Engulf, who has the blinkers on one side only and is a 5th at Ballarat last start with interference.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Resonant (No.6) — $3.60 / $1.65
Bet $10.00 Win, return $36.00
Prob 19.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a slow race and advantaged on the map, and she's the fastest in time for a sectional. Ethan Brown is riding and he's been strong at the track.
2. Celestial Blue (No.3) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Unkechaug (No.13) — $8.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.98x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a slow race, but he has the fastest L400 on the card and a 3rd at Ballarat last start. Billy Egan is riding and J-HOT at the track.

Roughie: Meritorious (No.4) — $13.00 / $3.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a slow race with a 3rd at Ballarat over 1000m last start. Luke Currie is riding, so the path is simply to get a clean run from the midfield.

Race 5 – Hygain Edge Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Pace advantaged: Heavy Is The Head. Pace disadvantaged: Pretty Stylish. Circus Circus, Pretty Stylish, Cirque De Coco and Oceans Blue are ON-PACE. Incoherent, She's Loaded, Some Chance, Nishioka and Confidential Girl are MIDFIELD. Heavy Is The Head, Vixen Vibes, Chasing Atlantis and Dextrose are BACKMARKERS.
Punty read: Nishioka is the one I'm backing. He's midfield in a moderate race, and he's been second in both of his starts with a 0.5 length defeat at Kilmore last start. Ethan Brown is riding, and his strike rate at the track is good, so the jockey is in form. Oceans Blue is the one ON-PACE, which means he'll be on the speed and he's another with a strong place record. Kirkstone is a price at $6.00 with ear muffs and lugging bit on first time, which might be worth a look. Watch Incoherent, who has been T-HOT over the last 100 rides and is the roughie of the race.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Nishioka (No.12) — $2.35 / $1.32
Bet $15.00 Win, return $35.25
Prob 32.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a moderate race with a clear run into the race, and he has two seconds from two starts so far. He's the most likely to finish in the placings even if the price is short.
2. Oceans Blue (No.13) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Kirkstone (No.11) — $6.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why Ear muffs and lugging bit on first time, Luke Currie riding, and the stable's T-HOT rating suggests they're in form.

Roughie: Incoherent (No.5) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why He's midfield, and Ben Allen gets his horses around the track. The path to winning is a clean run into the straight from the midfield.

Race 6 – Power FM (Bm56)

Race type: Benchmark 56, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Pace advantaged: Sistine Tunnel, Smoke Screen and Chapados. Shipstern Bluff, Immortal Justice, Lagunanini and Chapados are ON-PACE. Divine Vicky, Sistine Tunnel, Smoke Screen and Vivid Blooms are MIDFIELD. Smart Little Miss and Brave Carol are BACKMARKERS.
Punty read: Chapados is my choice at $4.00. ON-PACE and advantaged on the map in a moderate pace, which suits a horse who likes to be up on the speed. His latest was a 3rd at Avoca over 1300m, 1.2 lengths off the winner. Billy Egan is riding, and Dominic Sutton is a stable with a good run at the track. Smart Little Miss is the one with the most value in the race, a backmarker who has been placed a few times in the last 12 months, and the price is short enough to make her a good bet for the place. Sistine Tunnel will be racing midfield in a race that suits her, and her last start was a 2nd at Mornington, so she's a live chance.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Chapados (No.10) — $4.00 / $1.70
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), collects $29.93 if it wins ($21.00 win + $8.93 place), $8.93 if it only places
Prob 22.5% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Advantaged on the map, on-pace in a moderate race, and his latest was a 3rd at Avoca. Billy Egan is riding and Dominic Sutton's stable is in good form.
2. Smart Little Miss (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sistine Tunnel (No.4) — $3.60 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Midfield and advantaged on the map, and her latest was a 2nd at Mornington over 1200m. John Allen is riding, and the trainer's runners are often competitive in this class.

Roughie: Brave Carol (No.5) — $14.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a race that will be moderate, with Brad Rawiller riding. Path to victory is a late run down the outside if the front runners fade.

Race 7 – Magic Millions (Bm62)

Race type: Benchmark 62, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Leaders: Sharing Moments and Semantics. Pace advantaged: Catch It Kiss It. Pace disadvantaged: Killiana, Du Clisson and Skjaldmo. Killiana, Du Clisson, Skjaldmo, Bridgeitall and Flying Straz are ON-PACE. Arabella Star, Catch It Kiss It and Bel Lupa's runners are MIDFIELD or BACKMARKER as marked. Semantics is LEADER.
Punty read: Semantics is my top pick. He's the leader in a moderate-paced 1000m with one other genuine leader in the race, and his latest was a 1st at Bendigo over 1000m, 1.2 lengths clear of the rest. Ethan Brown is riding, and he's been hot over the last 100 rides at the track. The danger is Sharing Moments, who can push him and make it a true contest up front. Du Clisson is the best of the on-pace runners with the market support he's been getting. Skjaldmo is the roughie with a win last start at Ballarat over 1000m, but the map is against him here.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Semantics (No.11) — $1.95 / $1.12
Bet $10.50 Win, return $20.48
Prob 29.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.57x Steady since tip
Why The leader in a moderate race, with his latest a win at Bendigo, and Ethan Brown is in form.
2. Du Clisson (No.3) — $4.80 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.16x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Bel Lupa (No.8) — $8.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker with a 1st and a 2nd in his record. Lachlan Neindorf is riding, and he's a horse who finishes well over 1000m.

Roughie: Skjaldmo (No.7) — $10.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why He won at Ballarat over 1000m last start, but the map puts him on the disadvantaged side with a moderate pace. The path to winning is the speed up front collapsing and him getting a clean run on the rail.

Race 8 – Sportsbet Race Replays (Bm62)

Race type: Benchmark 62, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Pace advantaged: Cushioned, Cheron Finale, Kiwi Jenni and Billycart. No runner is marked ON-PACE, so the speed will be shared. Antalian, Chantra, Lady Thinkabell, Cushioned, Jenni You Think, Cliste and Cheron Finale are MIDFIELD. Into You, Perfect Night, Epeiric, Kiwi Jenni, Billycart, Designs Of Eight and Koolatah Queen are BACKMARKERS.
Punty read: Cushioned is my top pick. Midfield in a slow 1600m, with the pace advantage on the map and a 4th at Cranbourne over 1600m last start. Billy Egan is riding for A & S Freedman, and the trainer's T-HOT rating is worth noting. Jenni You Think is the second staked horse, midfield in the same slow race, with a 3rd at Ballarat over 1600m last start. Perfect Night is the one who could come late from the back. Koolatah Queen gets tongue tie on first time, and is the roughie in this race at $16.00.

Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)

1. Cushioned (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.95
Bet $6.50 Win, return $31.20
Prob 17.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a slow 1600m with the pace advantage on her side, and a 4th at Cranbourne 1600m last start. Billy Egan is hot over the last 100 rides.
2. Jenni You Think (No.6) — $4.80 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Perfect Night (No.7) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a slow race, and a 4th at Ballarat over 1400m last start. Jackson Radley is riding, and he's the one who can get a late run.

Roughie: Koolatah Queen (No.14) — $16.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie goes on for the first time and Ben Allen gets the ride. Path to victory is a long run from the back if the midfield leaves a gap.

Race 9 – Hygain Edge (Bm62)

Race type: Benchmark 62, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. Leader: M'lady Rose. Pace advantaged: Invisible Magic, Jenni Poppins and Hidden Witness. Pace disadvantaged: Billie Bronx, M'lady Rose and Swycho. Princess Toro, Russian Duchess, Billie Bronx, Swycho and Frosty Night are ON-PACE. Invisible Magic, Neziha, Farakta, Hidden Witness, Crimson Miss and Jenni Poppins are midfield or backmarker as marked. M'lady Rose is LEADER.
Punty read: Invisible Magic is the one I'm backing. Midfield in a genuine-pace 1400m, with the pace advantage on her side and a 2nd at Warrnambool over 1400m last start. Jabez Johnstone is riding for C Maher, and the trainer's runners are hot. The big issue is M'lady Rose as the lone leader, who is on the disadvantaged side of the map. She'll be pressured by Russian Duchess and Princess Toro, so the race could be a contest from the start. Neziha is a strong second pick, midfield with a 1st at Pakenham Synthetic over 1200m last time. The race could go to a stayer who sits back and runs on, so Hidden Witness is one to watch from the midfield.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)

1. Invisible Magic (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.95
Bet $9.00 Each Way ($4.50W + $4.50P), collects $31.28 if it wins ($22.50 win + $8.78 place), $8.78 if it only places
Prob 20.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why Midfield with the pace advantage, a 2nd at Warrnambool last start, and the trainer is in good form at the track. Jabez Johnstone is the rider.
2. Neziha (No.3) — $3.60 / $1.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.60x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. M'lady Rose (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why She's the leader with a 5th at Bendigo last start over 2200m, but the genuine pace means she'll have company. John Allen is riding and she's got the speed to run her race.

Roughie: Russian Duchess (No.4) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why On-pace in a race where the front end is contested, and her latest was a 6th at Ballarat over 1400m. Ben Allen is riding for C Maher. The path to winning is the leaders going too hard and the on-pace runners running down M'lady Rose.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R2–R5)

Smart: 6,11,2,4 / 8,1,14,7 / 3,6,13,4 / 12,13,11 (192 combos x $0.33854 = $65.00) -- 33.9% flexi
Punty's take: Race 2 is the tight leg with Nialah, Vulcana and Anglais, and Race 3 and Race 4 are more open, with the others doing the damage. Risk is high with three of the four legs open, 33.9% flexi, a solid entertainment ticket that pays well only if a longshot runs down the field.

QUADDIE (R6–R9)

Smart: 10,4,2 / 11,3,8 / 5,7,6,14 / 2,3,6,4 (144 combos x $0.3472 = $50.00) -- 34.7% flexi
Punty's take: Race 6 is tight with Chapados, Smart Little Miss and Sistine Tunnel. Race 7 and Race 8 are the cheap ones to get wrong, and Race 9 is open with Invisible Magic as the only real banker. 33.9% flexi, with the ticket paying well only if one of the longer prices lands.

BIG 6 (R4–R9)

Smart: 3,6,13 / 12,13,11,5,7 / 10,4,2,5 / 11,3,8,1,7 / 5,7,6,14 / 2,3,6,4 (4800 combos x $0.001042 = $5.00) -- 0.10% flexi
Punty's take: Four of the six legs are open or chaotic, so this is a lottery ticket with a small outlay. The Big 6 has not paid well in the past, so treat it as entertainment only, and don't let it eat into the selections.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Tongue ties everywhere
Brookelinda (No.6) and With Benefits (No.11) both get tongue ties on for the first time in Race 1, and Koolatah Queen (No.14) does the same in Race 8. Three horses with a fix going on the same card is a good sign someone's been looking after their gear.

2 - Blinkers on for Anglais
Anglais (No.2) gets blinkers on for the first time in Race 2. The data flags him as a placed runner in his last two starts, so the blinkers could be the fix to get him closer to the front.

3 - Chilly Sav's gear shed
Chilly Sav (No.3) at $3.60 has bandages on the hind legs, a nasal strip and winkers all going on first time. That's more change than a Ballarat stable hand in a Bunnings sale, and the horse is still winless from three starts.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Nine races, one card, and enough speed maps to keep a sicko busy all arvo. Back the staked horses, respect the roughies, and if Race 9 turns into a bloodbath, just remember the bookies are still counting their cash.