For all of Punty's tips for Scone, head to https://punty.ai/tips/scone-2026-10-23

Rightio Loose Units, Scone's on a Soft 5 and the rail's true, so it's lanes, map positions, and who handles it without overcooking the first 600. Overcast as well, gusts 37km/h, and there's rain risk hovering in the schedule like a mate who always "just pops in".

This card's got a spine, and it's built on the Big 3 Multi. Tasman Deel in Race 1, Hammoon Sensation in Race 3, and Tennessee River in Race 5, those three are the way I'm keeping my ticket honest when the market tries to get cute.

Now let's run it race-by-race, lock in the Top 3s, and sprinkle one roughie where the map and the gear say "go on then".

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Soft 5, 1000m to 2200m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (rainfall: Nil last 24hrs, 2mm last 7 days)
Weather: Overcast, gusts 37km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: The meeting's mainly slow to moderate, with a bunch of ON-PACE and LEADER maps doing the heavy lifting early, especially in the short sprints.
Jockeys to follow:
Aaron Bullock: shows up in the main fires, rides Tasman Deel (No.6) in Race 1, and has strong track rates listed (J@trk 21.4% (1164/5449), L100 27% in Race 7's profile set)
Mikayla Weir: rides Quirky Princess (No.3) in Race 1 and Four Inthe Morning (No.7) in Race 2's jockey group, plus she's backed in key maidens
Ashley Morgan: rides North Terrace (No.2) in Race 1 and has multiple runners on the card, including in the sprint handicaps
Stables to respect:
S I Singleton (6 runners): has Quirky Princess (No.3) in Race 1, and her runners are consistently part of the live map scenarios today
Brett & Georgie Cavanough (5 runners): shows up in the closer races, including Breakout (No.8) in Race 4 and La Potenza (No.5) in Race 7
R P Northam (5 runners): lands the premium benchmark contest with Hammoon Sensation (No.4) in Race 3 and also has Nova Centauri (No.3)

Punty's take:

Start with the pace reads. Where the map says LEADER or ON-PACE, you want to be tracking that horse early, because Soft 5 with slow tempo can turn into a "who's positioned when the lights switch on" situation. In Race 1, Tasman Deel maps BACKMARKER but the whole profile screams it's still the class angle in a slow set. In Race 3, Hammoon Sensation maps ON-PACE and has the fastest time signals listed, that's the sort of setup that gives you a straight run at the finish.

Then look at the market behaviour and gear. Race 5 is Tennessee River territory, she's the clear win-shape with the biggest early-speed on the board (Map MIDFIELD, but Speed Rank 1), and it's a maiden where you want the one that's doing the work early without needing miracles. Race 6 is a chaos handicap profile, and the locked fav The Autumn Wind (No.8) is backed into a tough one, while Electric Bliss (No.11) and Nearest (No.2) both have place leverage.

What it means for you:

Keep your aggressive money where the map and the form line up. That's why the spine is the Big 3 Multi, and why the locked top picks across the card are the ones carrying the stakes. For the rest, you protect with place when the fields are soft and the race shape is slow, because that's where value survives when wins get messy.

Entertainment-wise, we're not forcing it everywhere. You'll see me staying disciplined in the chaos races, by using the roughies only where the path to the finish makes sense in the map and gear notes. And if a short-priced horse is listed as the locked pick, I'm treating it like a weapon, not a charity case.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Tennessee River (Race 5, No.9) — $1.57
Why Best win shape in the 1000m maiden sprint, with the early-speed profile doing the work and the Soft track angle matching.

2 - Tasman Deel (Race 1, No.6) — $1.75
Why Locked as the value spine play in a slow 2200m, finishing ability backed up in the way the sectionals and class line up.

3 - Hammoon Sensation (Race 3, No.4) — $2.30
Why Maps ON-PACE, fastest time signals listed, and it's the benchmark-82 race where the sharper profile wins the day.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 6.32 = $63.20

RACE-BY-RACE

Race 1 – ISEC Plate (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 2200m
Map & tempo: Pace: Slow Pace. Expect a slow grind with BACKMARKER setups dominating, while the key maps sit MIDFIELD with a lot of horses waiting for the finish turn.
Punty read: Tasman Deel (No.6) is the locked pick, and this race shape suits it, slow pace plus staying distance lets the best finishers do the damage. Tasman Deel is listed as BACKMARKER and should be coming late. The danger is that several are also BACKMARKER, so you want the one with the sharper overall profile on the day.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Tasman Deel (No.6) — $1.75 / $1.05

1. Quirky Princess (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.32

1. North Terrace (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.55

Roughie: Ominous (No.5) — $13.00 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.75x
Why Roughie path is simple, it's midfield-to-finish type, plus the gear change (tongue tie ON first time) gives it a real "lift" chance if the race turns into a late scramble.

Race 2 – Coolmore Country Boosted Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Pace: Slow Pace. MIDFIELD horses can get involved early, but this is the sort of maiden where the best of the ON-PACE types grind forward and the place-getters swoop.
Punty read: Four Inthe Morning (No.7) is the locked pick, and it fits the slow tempo, barrier 9 plus the way it's built for a controlled run gives it the best shot to keep finding the line.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Four Inthe Morning (No.7) — $1.85 / $1.09

1. Nett's Girl (No.8) — $3.10 / $1.25

1. Shakespeare's Girl (No.10) — $7.00 / $1.90

Roughie: Redaluca Girl (No.9) — $10.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.62x
Why It's ON-PACE on the map, and the note says it had a slow-start issue last time, so if it breaks clean, it can hang on for an upset lane.

Race 3 – TAB Magic Millions Gold Coast Carnival (Bm82)

Race type: Benchmark 82, 1600m
Map & tempo: Pace: Slow Pace. Despite the "slow" label, the map shows real ON-PACE threats, and in Soft 5 the ON-PACE horse with better time signals can just keep going.
Punty read: Hammoon Sensation (No.4) is the locked pick, maps ON-PACE and has time fastest listed. This looks like it sets up perfectly for a controlled run and a kick at the finish.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Hammoon Sensation (No.4) — $2.45 / $1.12

1. Nova Centauri (No.3) — $3.60 / $1.37

1. Valorous Power (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.45

Roughie: Grandini (No.7) — $9.50 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.76x
Why BACKMARKER type with late speed signals listed, and if the pace doesn't sprint, the backmarkers get a real shot at a cheeky finish.

Race 4 – Kia Ora Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1300m
Map & tempo: Pace: Slow Pace, short trip. ON-PACE types can get away with murder, but on Soft 5 the late role-ins from midfield can still pinch it.
Punty read: Rolling Home (No.3) is the locked pick, and it maps ON-PACE with strong recent wins listed in the last three starts.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Rolling Home (No.3) — $2.20 / $1.13

1. Magurtz (No.5) — $4.20 / $1.55

1. Breakout (No.8) — $6.00 / $1.82

Roughie: Master Zous (No.2) — $21.00 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why ON-PACE map with a win profile only if it's on its best weight, and the last run has the sort of excuse that can spark a bounce.

Race 5 – Pacific Fair Magic Millions Polo & Showjumping Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Pace: Moderate Pace. 1000m on Soft 5, the speed map matters, and the winners are usually the ones who don't get shuffled back too far.
Punty read: Tennessee River (No.9) is the locked pick, it's got the biggest win shape on the table, and it's built to do the work without needing luck from the back.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Tennessee River (No.9) — $1.57 / $1.08

1. Halcyon Belle (No.6) — $4.80 / $1.62

1. Umbusi (No.5) — $12.00 / $2.75

Roughie: Frog Rock (No.3) — $13.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 28.7% | Value: 0.69x
Why ON-PACE map type that can hang around late if the leaders come back a touch in the Soft conditions.

Race 6 – Magic Millions Digital 23-28 Oct Sale Super Mdn Hcp

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Pace: Slow Pace. This is a bigger-chaos profile, and the map says the market favourite is likely to get every chance before the finish, with multiple midfield runners ready to pounce.
Punty read: The Autumn Wind (No.8) is the locked pick, it maps UNKNOWN but the win profile is hot in a chaos-type setup, and it's price-supported in the market.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. The Autumn Wind (No.8) — $2.15 / $1.22

1. Electric Bliss (No.11) — $4.20 / $1.70

1. Nearest (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.70

Roughie: Fizz Wizz (No.7) — $16.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 0.78x
Why BACKMARKER, but sectionals list it with time fastest, so if it finds clear galloping, it's the sort of roughie that slingshots into the placings.

Race 7 – Vale Billy Farrow Hcp (C2)

Race type: Class 2, 1000m
Map & tempo: Pace: Moderate Pace. Short sprint, ON-PACE types dictate, but the place getters can still come from the right spot in this Soft 5.
Punty read: Mainstay (No.1) is the locked pick, and it maps ON-PACE with Equicast ON first time, that's exactly the type of prep move that helps a short-field sprint.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Mainstay (No.1) — $1.65 / $1.07

1. Panta Rhei (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.25

1. Won'thearmecoming (No.8) — $7.50 / $2.15

Roughie: Bonoyster (No.7) — $11.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 38.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why ON-PACE map, and it's the sort of mid-price runner that can sneak the finish if the sprint turns into a contest of guts.

Race 8 – Arrowfield Country Boosted (Bm82)

Race type: Benchmark 82, 1100m
Map & tempo: Pace: Genuine Pace. This is a real speed contest, so you want the ones that can be in range without getting buried.
Punty read: Zampano (No.8) is the locked pick, and in a benchmark 82 with genuine pace, Zampano's map and form profile makes it a live chance to hit the front or sit right on it.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)

1. Zampano (No.8) — $5.00 / $2.00

1. Hellcibell (No.6) — $5.50 / $2.15

1. Warrior For Peace (No.3) — $4.00 / $1.70

Roughie: Great Point (No.9) — $13.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.02x
Why MIDFIELD map on a fast tempo race, it's got the late roll-in chance if the front runners soften in the final 100m.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R1–R4)

Smart: 6,3 / 7,8 / 4,3,2 / 3,5,7,8 (48 combos x $0.4167 = $20.00) -- 41.7% flexi
Punty's take: Bankers-heavy legs, tight where it should be, and R4 is wider because 1300m on Soft 5 can turn into a shuffle-fest.

QUADDIE (R5–R8)

Smart: 9,6 / 8,2,11,4 / 1,3,8,9,7 / 6,3,8 (120 combos x $0.4167 = $50.00) -- 41.7% flexi
Punty's take: R7 and R8 are the entertainment tax, R5 and R6 are where you lock the backbone, and you're buying cover where the chaos is real.

BIG 6 (R3–R8)

Smart: 4,3,2,7 / 3,5,7,8 / 9,6,5,10,3 / 8,2,11,4 / 1,3,8,9,7 / 6,3,8 (4800 combos x $0.001042 = $5.00) -- 0.10% flexi
Punty's take: This is big coverage for small outlay, the kind of bet that either pays for your week or teaches humility, depending on how the Soft track plays out.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Tasman Deel's whole day is set up by the race pace. Pace is listed as Slow Pace in Race 1, and Tasman Deel (No.6) is the locked pick at $5.50.
2 - Race 3 is ON-PACE power. Hammoon Sensation is ON-PACE and has sectionals with time fastest listed, while it's the benchmark-82 race, so it's the type to hold a straight line late.
3 - Race 8 is genuine pace, so don't overthink the winners getting swallowed. Warrior For Peace (No.3) is ON-PACE with tongue tie OFF first time, and Zampano (No.8) is mid-race positioned with MIDFIELD map, that combination screams "in the mix early, still there late".

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Soft 5, rail true, and a card that wants patience. I'm leaning into the spine with the Big 3 Multi, then letting the map do the talking in the races that can't behave. If one roughie lands, we'll take it like Legends, and if it doesn't, we'll still be right where the value lives.