For all of Punty's tips for Launceston, head to https://punty.ai/tips/launceston-2026-10-23

Rightio Loose Units, Launceston on a Soft 5 under overcast skies, with gusts up to 33.3km/h doing their best to ruin everybody's day. Eight races, 77 runners and seven scratchings, so the form guide has done plenty of fidgeting already. Grab a coffee, sit down and let's work out where the money goes.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Launceston, 1120m to 2150m card
Rail: +9m 1200m-W/Post; +7m Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (Rainfall: Nil)
Weather: Overcast, gusts 33.3km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Race 1 has a genuine pace with Dressed In Saturn the only leader. Races 3 to 5 and 7 are moderate and set up for the markers to be fought over. Race 8 is slow, so it's a tactical sprint home rather than a sprint from the gate.
Jockeys to follow:
Anthony Darmanin: Seven rides today, the most of any hoop on the card. He has Vabuiagi in Race 1, Geegees Missile in Race 4 and Klimenko in Race 7, and Geegees Missile's jockey stats at this track run 13.8% (574/4154) with 21% over his last 100 rides.
Erica Byrne Burke: Six rides, including Native Clan in Race 5 and Mcveigh in Race 7. Her track record reads 16% (262/1642), and she's been hot lately with 20% over her last 100.
Luke P Dempsey: Six rides, including Summit in Race 3 and Ramiro in Race 2, two of the biggest market players in their races. Dempsey's track rate sits at 8.7% (56/643), so he's a jockey I'd use for the price, not the tilt.
Stables to respect:
J K Blacker (11 runners): The biggest string on the card by a mile across Races 2, 3, 6 and 8. Their track strike rate runs 9.7% (586/6056), so the numbers are there but the horses have to be picked carefully.
G J Stevenson (7 runners): Sounds Of Peace in Race 2 and Eaglefurther in Race 8 are the two I'd put my money on. Plenty of quality here.
S Gandy (6 runners): Vabuiagi, Geegees Missile and Miss Lyra are among the best-backed in their races. They'll be hard to ignore.

Punty's take: Launceston is a card where the speed sorts the wheat from the chaff. Vabuiagi and Alpine Whiskey are the two ON-PACE types sitting right behind Dressed In Saturn in Race 1, so the first race looks like a two-horse bankers' job with a few awkward moments to sort out. Race 2 is the other short-priced play, Sounds Of Peace and Ramiro leading the market, and Race 3 is where the chaos starts with Summit and Toorak Lad both going around at prices that tell you the punters have no idea.

Race 4 is my favourite Geegees Missile spot on the card, but Race 5 and Race 6 are where the value bites. Race 7 is a clear bunch of ON-PACE types, and Race 8 is the tactical sprint down the Launceston straight with Eaglefurther at the top of the tree. This is a card for backing horses who can handle the speed, not for chasing huge prices.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on the strongest Race 4 and Race 8 plays, because those two have the cleanest racing logic on the card. Protect yourself in Race 3 and Race 6 where the field is open, and keep your Race 5 money on Henley Extreme and Native Clan rather than spreading it across the whole field. Don't be a hero on the roughies. The Early Quaddie is the one ticket I'd treat as entertainment only, with the Big 6 a tight-budget dream rather than a plan.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Eaglefurther (Race 8, No.2) — $2.25
Why Three straight wins on the bounce at Launceston and Devonport, and she's the one in this field with the form to win the race out of a slow tempo.
2 - Sounds Of Peace (Race 2, No.6) — $2.35
Why Second at Launceston 1400m last start by 0.3 lengths, Daniel Ganderton on board and the market has it heavy in support. The map is unknown, so I'm watching the first two, but the form is hard to argue with.
3 - Geegees Missile (Race 4, No.3) — $2.90
Why Three wins from ten on soft, and he's the most consistent horse on a Benchmark 68 card where the other markers are fighting for the lead.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 15.33 = $153.30

Race 1 – Mayhem In The Mounting Yard

Race type: Maiden, 1120m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. Dressed In Saturn is the only LEADER. Alpine Whiskey, Vabuiagi, Effrontery, Red Winter and Thermal Miss all sit ON-PACE behind it. The Red She Devil, Royal Scene and Hot Moment are MIDFIELD, and Eucumbene is the BACKMARKER.
Punty read: Vabuiagi is my staked pick, each way at $2.85 / $1.40. He's ON-PACE in a race where the lead is only held by one horse, so he'll be parked just behind the speed and ready to pounce. Last start he was third at Launceston 1200m, beaten 1.2 lengths, and his record shows three starts on soft without a win but two thirds, so the place is the sensible play. Alpine Whiskey will be right there too and is the one most likely to hang around the top two. Dressed In Saturn has changed gear heavily today with blinkers off for the first time and winkers on for the first time, so be interested in how that affects a horse who wants to lead. Effrontery is the roughie to watch because the pace map leans his way.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Vabuiagi (No.9) — $2.90 / $1.40
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $32.25 if it wins ($21.75 win + $10.50 place), $10.50 if it only places
Prob 32.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.93x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE in a race with one leader, third last start and a genuine place chance. Three starts first-up with a second and two thirds, so he doesn't go round and round for nothing.
2. Alpine Whiskey (No.1) — $2.60 / $1.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 31.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Thermal Miss (No.8) — $9.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why Ran a 99th in her last Devonport Synthetic start but has since won two Longford sprints. Ride on the Hayley Mc Carthy line and she's a danger if the speed holds up.

Roughie: Effrontery (No.5) — $11.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why The pace map is kind to him and Codi Jordan can sit him just off the speed. If the top two blow up, he's the one who can run on at a price.

Race 2 – Book Your Xmas Party Now

Race type: Maiden, 1420m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Sh'bourne Hiflyer is ON-PACE, Sounds Of Peace and Ramiro are UNKNOWN and BACKMARKER respectively, and the rest sit MIDFIELD or BACKMARKER. Climbeverymountain is advantaged by the tempo, Sorell Eagles is the one who has to work for it.
Punty read: Sounds Of Peace is my staked pick, each way at $2.35 / $1.14. He's a maiden with a second at Launceston 1400m last start and a second at Longford 1400m before that, so he has the sort of consistent finishing run that wins maidens. The market has him heavy and I'm happy to follow it. Ramiro is the one who could take the race from him. He has Blinkers OFF for the first time, and his two most recent starts were a second at Devonport Synthetic 1350m and a third at Longford 770m. Sh'bourne Hiflyer has the one-two of a moderate pace and form at Launceston, so he's the danger from the front. The Office Award roughie comes from the back of a slow tempo.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Sounds Of Peace (No.6) — $2.40 / $1.14
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), collects $23.01 if it wins ($15.60 win + $7.41 place), $7.41 if it only places
Prob 38.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.93x Steady since tip
Why Second at Launceston 1400m last start, won on a Good track at this kind of distance, and the market has him backed in heavily.
2. Ramiro (No.10) — $2.10 / $1.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.63x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sh'bourne Hiflyer (No.5) — $8.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Second at Launceston 1200m last start and has the early speed to keep the pace honest. Kelvin Sanderson rides him to a ratio that says he can hold on.

Roughie: Office Award (No.9) — $14.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 32.2% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why Lauryn Bingley has him at the back of a slow tempo and he has form from the back. If the leaders go to sleep, he can run on through a gap.

Race 3 – Celebrate Our Jumps Jockeys

Race type: Class 1, 1420m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Out Of The Sphere and Alpine Honey are the ON-PACE types, Summit, Unfiltered, Northern Child, Diesel's Sunshine and South Georgia are MIDFIELD, and most of the rest come from the BACKMARKER. Diesel's Sunshine is the tempo winner on the map.
Punty read: Summit is my staked pick, win only at $2.85 / $1.45, $10.50 win, return $29.93. He's a MIDFIELD runner who has never been better on soft, with one win and one second from eleven starts, and his sectional time is the fastest in the race. His gear is a stripped-back look today with blinkers off again, winkers and a bubble cheeker off and a cross-over noseband off, so the trainer's hand is visible. Toorak Lad is the danger with a fine win last start at Launceston 1220m, and South Georgia has been placed on soft in his last two starts. Diesel's Sunshine has the speed to set the tempo.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Summit (No.6) — $3.00 / $1.45
Bet $10.50 Win, return $31.50
Prob 15.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.47x Steady since tip
Why Stripped of blinkers, winkers and cheeker today, a trainer and jockey combo that's been firing, and the fastest time in the field. He's MIDFIELD in a race where the speed is up front, so he can settle and pick off the leaders.
2. Toorak Lad (No.1) — $8.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.07x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.75 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. South Georgia (No.13) — $11.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.16x Steady since tip
Why Sectionals rank well at the closing stages and he's been placed on soft with a MIDFIELD spot. The Robyn Lynch ride is an honest one.

Roughie: Northern Child (No.7) — $11.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why He has a sectional kick on the back of a Longford win and a Hobart third. He's a horse who needs the race to set up, so if the leaders collapse he has a shot.

Race 4 – Ladbrokes Launceston Cup Packages On Sale

Race type: Benchmark 68, 1220m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Garcon D'espoir and Geegees Missile are advantaged. Mastretta, Obviously Good and Garcon D'espoir are all ON-PACE types, and Geegees Missile is MIDFIELD. Golden Meadow and Montezulu are the back runners.
Punty read: Geegees Missile is my staked pick, win only at $2.90 / $1.57, $15.00 win, return $43.50. He's been a consistent soft performer with three wins from ten, a second and third in his last two Synthetic and Hobart starts, and Anthony Darmanin takes the ride with a pace map that suits him. Mastretta is the danger on the front runner's side of the race and has Blinkers OFF again. Garcon D'espoir is the one who could go 1-2 if the tempo is strong, but he's 6kg up from last start and that's a real question.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Geegees Missile (No.3) — $2.90 / $1.57
Bet $15.00 Win, return $43.50
Prob 32.7% | Place: 53.9% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Three wins from ten on soft and the most consistent horse in a six-horse field. Darmanin rides with the speed map in his favour.
2. Mastretta (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.2% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Garcon D'espoir (No.1) — $2.90 / $1.57
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why Four wins and five seconds from 21 starts with the sectional speed to go with it, but the 6kg rise from last start is a concern.

Roughie: Obviously Good (No.4) — $9.50 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why Four wins at Launceston from four starts on the track, and he could get the place if the favourites stumble.

Race 5 – More From Tote With Ladbrokes

Race type: Benchmark 68, 2150m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Johnnie Pinch and Henley Extreme are the ON-PACE types, with Native Clan also ON-PACE. Regal Hunter and Happy Clan are MIDFIELD, and Sugoi Legend is the BACKMARKER. Native Clan and Regal Hunter are advantaged by the tempo.
Punty read: Henley Extreme is my staked pick, win only at $2.10 with the place tote, $12.36 win, return $25.96. He's ON-PACE, won at Launceston 1620m on 25 September and then won again at Devonport Synthetic on 13 October over the shorter trip. Kelvin Sanderson rides and he's two from two with Liam Beamish. Native Clan is the one with the real class at 2150m, having won at this exact distance at Launceston on 25 September, and he's the one I'll be watching most carefully. Johnnie Pinch is the danger if the speed holds up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.36 pool)

1. Henley Extreme (No.5) — $2.10 / place tote
Bet $12.36 Win, return $25.96
Prob 27.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE with a win over the Launceston 1620m last start. Kelvin Sanderson rides, and his form is strong on the soft.
2. Native Clan (No.3) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.1% | Place: 45.9% | Value: 1.06x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Johnnie Pinch (No.2) — $5.50 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Second at Launceston 2000m last start with a strong sectional time and a track record that backs up the trip.

Roughie: Happy Clan (No.1) — $9.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 21.3% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why A Launceston 2000m winner last start and the extra staying trip suits him. Robyn Lynch gets him into the race and he can finish fast.

Race 6 – Cressy Chaff Cutters Longford Cup New Year's Day Hcp

Race type: Class 3, 1420m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Artillery Fire, Bellsprout, Wild Dancer, Who's In Dev and Judge Jenni are ON-PACE types. Team Heist, Jenni The Cat and Sir Jag are MIDFIELD, and Within Sight and Sky Eagle are the BACKMARKERS.
Punty read: Who's In Dev is my staked pick, each way at $5.00 / $1.85. He's ON-PACE, Kirra-Lee Lane gets the ride and her strike rate on his first-up runs is 30% (12/40) with the partnership. His sectionals at Launceston are rated fastest, and his last start was a 5th at Launceston 1200m. Bellsprout is the one who's won at Longford and Devonport Synthetic, so he's the danger. Artillery Fire has been second-up placed and has the sectionals to finish the job.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)

1. Who's In Dev (No.7) — $5.50 / $1.85
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P), collects $31.24 if it wins ($23.38 win + $7.86 place), $7.86 if it only places
Prob 19.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.07x Steady since tip
Why Fastest sectionals on the track and an ON-PACE tempo that suits. Kirra-Lee Lane has been strong alongside him.
2. Bellsprout (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.7% | Place: 53.6% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Artillery Fire (No.2) — $6.50 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.01x Steady since tip
Why Launceston 1400m winner earlier this year and has the time and sectional credentials to run into the placings.

Roughie: Within Sight (No.9) — $10.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 29.4% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why Erica Byrne Burke rides him from the back of the pack, and if the front three go too hard early he's the one who can finish with a flourish.

Race 7 – Jackson Security Newmarket & Baker Group Cup Bookings Open Now

Race type: Class 1, 1120m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Gilly's Boy, Miss Lyra, Olindah and Peak A Boom are all advantaged by the tempo. Miss Lyra, Mcveigh, Waltzing Matilda and Klimenko are ON-PACE, and Gilly's Boy, Olindah and Peak A Boom are MIDFIELD.
Punty read: Miss Lyra is my staked pick, win only at $3.80 / $1.95, $10.68 win, return $40.58. She's ON-PACE, sits in a race where the speed is strong and has the fastest sectional time on the card. Carleen Hefel rides and Miss Lyra has two seconds at Launceston from her last two starts, one at 1120m and the other at 1100m, so she knows the trip. Mcveigh is the danger ridden by Erica Byrne Burke, and Olindah has won at Launceston 1200m and is a serious chance from the midfield.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.68 pool)

1. Miss Lyra (No.5) — $3.80 / $1.95
Bet $10.68 Win, return $40.58
Prob 29.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.11x Steady since tip
Why Two straight seconds at Launceston over this distance and the time to match. Stays on the speed and has the best late sectionals in the field.
2. Mcveigh (No.2) — $3.30 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Olindah (No.6) — $3.80 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.65x Steady since tip
Why Won at Launceston 1200m last start and has the record to show she's a genuine chance in a tight finish.

Roughie: Klimenko (No.4) — $9.00 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie is on for the first time and Anthony Darmanin takes the ride. If the leaders come back to him he can run on from the ON-PACE spot.

Race 8 – Ladbrokes Tote Win + 10% In October

Race type: Benchmark 64, 1620m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Eaglefurther and Kireina Marubrah are the ON-PACE types, and The Spirit Of Zero, Fiorente De Legend and Al Maximus are the BACKMARKERS. The slow tempo is a gift to the front runners and makes the finish a hard sprint home.
Punty read: Eaglefurther is my staked pick, win only at $2.25 / $1.25, $15.00 win, return $33.75. She's ON-PACE, won three straight at Launceston and Devonport Synthetic, and Kirra-Lee Lane rides her at a 30% strike rate with the partnership. She's six kilos up from her last start, which is a question, but the record over this trip and this track is the best in the race. Kireina Marubrah is the danger from the front and has Blinkers ON again. The Spirit Of Zero has a 0/3 record at 61-62kg, so the weight is a warning.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Eaglefurther (No.2) — $2.35 / $1.25
Bet $15.00 Win, return $35.25
Prob 38.9% | Place: 62.4% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why Three straight wins including Launceston 1600m twice, and she's the only one in the race who has won at this distance and track in recent starts.
2. Kireina Marubrah (No.6) — $2.90 / $1.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. The Spirit Of Zero (No.3) — $6.50 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why A sectional runner with a late kick from the back of the tempo. The weight is the question, so he's a placing chance.

Roughie: Fiorente De Legend (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 30.6% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why Fastest sectionals and time in the field, and if the leaders go slow, he's the one with the closing speed to steal it from the back.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R1–R4)

Smart: 9,1,8,5 / 6,10 / 1,6,13,7 / 2,3,1 (96 combos x $0.3646 = $35.00) -- 36.5% flexi
Punty's take: Race 1 and Race 2 are tight with the top picks, Race 3 is the chaos leg with five runners, and Race 4 is the Geegees Missile leg. The ticket is entertainment only in my book, because the chaos leg in Race 3 is what kills it. I'd be playing it small, if at all.

QUADDIE (R5–R8)

Smart: 5,3,2 / 3,7,2,9,4 / 2,5,6 / 2,6,4 (135 combos x $0.30 = $40.50) -- 30% flexi
Punty's take: Race 5 and Race 7 are tight three-horse legs, Race 6 is the open one and Race 8 is the two-horse finish. It's a moderate-risk ticket with two open legs. The payout needs a $5 to $10 winner somewhere in the four races to pay well.

BIG 6 (R3–R8)

Smart: 1,6,13,7,10 / 2,3,1 / 5,3,2 / 3,7,2,4,9 / 2,5,6 / 2,6 (1350 combos x $0.0037 = $5.00) -- 0.37% flexi
Punty's take: Six legs with the wide ones in Race 3 and Race 6, so it's a moderate-risk ticket. It's a $5 dream ticket, not a plan. Treat it like a scratchie.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Dressed In Saturn has changed the lot
Blinkers are OFF for the first time, winkers ON for the first time and a lugging bit ON for the first time. The only LEADER in the Race 1 field is in new gear, so the early speed is a question mark.
2 - Summit's stripped-back look
Blinkers off again, winkers off for the first time, bubble cheeker off for the first time and cross-over noseband off for the first time. Four pieces of gear removed on the Race 3 favourite is a trainer telling you something.
3 - Eaglefurther's three-in-a-row run
Three straight wins at Launceston and Devonport Synthetic, and she's six kilos up from her last start. She's the horse on the card that makes the rest of the field look like they're doing homework.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Eight races, a soft track and a gusty breeze that will have the jockeys swearing into their goggles. Stick with the strong prices where the racing logic lines up, keep the exotics small, and don't let a long-priced roughie talk you into the house on a Tuesday. Enjoy the day, you grubby lot.