Saturday, 05 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, midfield flow, then a late sprint off the back half
Punty read: No.1 Excite is the one I want to be on, not because he's the flashiest, because he's the one who looks like he's going to get the run. With a Soft 5 and showers hanging around, you need a horse that's not going to be doing extra work to stay balanced. He can track the field, then apply pressure when others start slipping over their own excitement.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Excite (No.1) — $2.45 / $1.17 🏆 3RD
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 34.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.04x
Why First-up run looked like a starter gun, and from barrier 8 he's got options without being trapped.
2. Grocer's Girl (No.6) — $4.50 / $1.62 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 19.6% | Place: 58.8% | Value: 0.97x
Why The excuses are fair, the trip can be cleaner on a slower tempo, and she's the type to keep grinding on in soft.
3. Raymond (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.98x
Why Might be running at the business end, but at this place profile the numbers just don't justify the tap.
Roughie: State The Obvious (No.5) — $16.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 19.2% | Value: 0.96x
Why If the slow pace turns into a late wall of traffic, the right horse can sneak through, and she's the one with the "got held up" story.
Race type: Open, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow staying affair, midfield to backmarkers can benefit if the pace crawls
Punty read: This one's about staying power and positioning, no hero stuff. Fly My Wey (No.2) looks like the type who can slot in and keep eating ground late. It's a long way to get stuck, so I want a runner who won't lose momentum early and then find a clear lane late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Fly My Wey (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$24.00
Prob 23.2% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 1.09x
Why She's got the on-rails chance, and on a Soft 5, staying into the finish is gold.
2. Diamond Jak (No.1) — $5.45 / $1.82 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Hezashocka (No.3) — $5.45 / $1.82 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.84x
Why She can run into it, but this place plan isn't paying enough for the risk.
Roughie: Above The Clouds (No.5) — $9.80 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 1.15x
Why Her path is if the slow tempo creates a scramble for position late, and she sneaks into the first bunch.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow staying race, closing runs win the argument
Punty read: Muscovado (No.3) is the fav for a reason, but at Ellerslie on soft, staying in contact is everything. If the leaders get labouring, the closers who can swing wider without losing balance are the ones that cash. Los Salsero (No.4) is the main threat if he gets a clear breath at the right time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.00 pool)
1. Muscovado (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Each Way ($3.00W + $3.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 17.1% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why This is the kind of staying contest where the Soft 5 helps the true grinders and she looks made for it.
2. Los Salsero (No.4) — $5.45 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sharapova (No.10) — $6.40 / $2.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 37.5% | Value: 1.15x
Why Market wants her, but place-only here isn't the sweet spot.
Roughie: Novak (No.1) — $9.65 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 1.01x
Why The only way this works is if the closers take over and she gets the right late lane.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace sprint, leaders set it up then it turns into a knife fight
Punty read: With A Vengeance (No.11) is the leader-type, but I'm siding with Le Jacques Cartier (No.1) because this is the "get across and land in the right spot" track. Party Time (No.10) is the other live one, but if you're backing any winner, it's the one that can stay balanced late when the ground chops out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Le Jacques Cartier (No.1) — $4.90 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 17.1% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.13x
Why Soft track sprint suits a horse that can hold the line, and he's got the right profile from barrier 3.
2. Party Time (No.10) — $5.90 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.02x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. With A Vengeance (No.11) — $3.40 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.97x
Why Hard to ignore the leader angle, but the price isn't giving enough.
Roughie: Ocean Rules (No.9) — $12.50 / $3.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why If the leaders start tiring in the mud, he's the one swooping with a clean finish.
Race type: Special Condition, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate 1200m, think quick cadence then sprint home
Punty read: Hervey Bay (No.6) is the pick because the wet and the distance line up. Whatz Done Is Done (No.7) is the danger if she finds a better run than last time, and El Aye (No.13) is the value play if the market's underestimating her.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Hervey Bay (No.6) — $3.56 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — Cashed, net -$1.80
Prob 15.1% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.80x
Why She looks like she can sustain on soft without needing everything to go right.
2. Whatz Done Is Done (No.7) — $4.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.32x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. El Aye (No.13) — $5.75 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 33.6% | Value: 1.00x
Why Nice value profile, but place side here isn't the best use of dollars.
Roughie: Crimson Sky (No.8) — $9.30 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 21.6% | Value: 0.97x
Why She's a roughie for a reason, if she hits the line in the wet she can jump into the money.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so you need to back the one who keeps accelerating when others run out of petrol
Punty read: Drommy (No.1) is the story at this stage, with the map read making sense. Sweet Ice (No.3) is the one I watch as the late threat, and Merriama (No.11) is more of a place angle if the race turns into a midfield sprint.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Drommy (No.1) — $3.80 / $1.70 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — Cashed, net -$1.28
Prob 18.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why In a real-run 1600, the ones that can settle and still move late take over.
2. Sweet Ice (No.3) — $7.35 / $2.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.21x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Merriama (No.11) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why Place chances are there, but the price versus the place profile doesn't sing.
Roughie: Allaces (No.10) — $13.75 / $4.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.93x
Why She's a "race collapses and the right runner gets through" type, not a steady banker.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders work and then it's about who can keep the effort
Punty read: This is the showdown, She's No Saint (No.1) is the headliners, Dream Roca (No.2) is the classy stalker, and Miss Janet (No.3) is the one who can sneak into the money if the pace is solid but not suicidal.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. She's No Saint (No.1) — $2.93 / $1.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 28.1% | Place: 67.7% | Value: 1.07x
Why Barrier one means she can put herself where the race is happening, and on soft she holds form.
2. Dream Roca (No.2) — $3.20 / $1.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.00
Prob 22.1% | Place: 58.6% | Value: 0.98x
Why If she gets a run in behind the speed, she'll pick them off in the last 150m.
3. Miss Janet (No.3) — $6.80 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 40.8% | Value: 1.14x
Why She's legit, but the place band isn't paying for it today.
Roughie: Latoya (No.4) — $9.35 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.23x
Why Big value profile, if she tracks the speed and the straight gives her room, she can run over the top.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1300m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, speed holds but you still need a finisher with wet-ground gears
Punty read: Origin Of Love (No.3) is the one I'm leaning on, and Tajana (No.5) is the live value runner. In a hot 1300 on soft, you back the ones who don't get bullied early, then can still fire when the field stretches.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Origin Of Love (No.3) — $2.46 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 23.1% | Place: 56.8% | Value: 1.29x
Why On the speed narrative, and the wet shouldn't knock her confidence.
2. Tajana (No.5) — $4.01 / $2.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.28x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Erin Go Bragh (No.1) — $4.04 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 37.6% | Value: 1.05x
Why She can run on, but the place profile isn't worth chasing at this price.
Roughie: Big Wave (No.2) — $11.75 / $3.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 1.10x
Why The value is there if the wide-running luck swings her way and the finish opens up.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, class shows late, but the finish is still tight and tactical
Punty read: Well Written (No.15) is the clear anchor at this distance, especially with the way it stays strong when the race tempo is real. Alabama Lass (No.12) is the main threat on ability, but she needs things to line up, and that's always the catch.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Well Written (No.15) — $1.61 / $1.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.20
Prob 49.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why This is the "easy to see why they're confident" sort of race, and even if it's not a walkover, she's still right there.
2. Alabama Lass (No.12) — $5.40 / $2.05 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.20
Prob 13.9% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why If the leaders set it up and then tire, she's the one that can still sneak in for the minor money.
3. First Five (No.2) — $12.50 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 0.90x
Why Too much risk for a place-only plan at that rank today.
Roughie: Tuxedo (No.6) — $14.25 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.1% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.98x
Why Her route is pace pressure early then she storms home once the straight starts helping.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so position and timing matter, the straight decides a lot
Punty read: Towering Vision (No.8) is the pick because she can settle and still have the kick when runners start reaching for air. Getaway (No.13) is the value in the lane if she gets a clean run. Gate Crashers (No.9) is the swing if the race is chaotic and the leader plan falls in.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Towering Vision (No.8) — $2.90 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 23.7% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.28x
Why She's got the right trip, and in Soft 5 conditions, the ones who don't waste energy win the race inside the race.
2. Getaway (No.13) — $4.35 / $1.85 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.25
Prob 16.7% | Place: 46.4% | Value: 1.05x
Why If she gets on the speed without getting boxed up, she can hit the line stronger than the price suggests.
3. Gate Crashers (No.9) — $12.25 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 1.11x
Why She's live, but the place plan at that rank isn't a proper edge today.
Roughie: Monologue (No.4) — $11.00 / $3.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.80x
Why If the pace collapses, she gets the right run into the finish, otherwise she's a tough watch.
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Excite (Race 1, No.1)✗ — $2.45
2 - She's No Saint (Race 7, No.1)✗ — $2.93
3 - Well Written (Race 9, No.15)✓ Won — $1.61
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ellerslie on a Soft 5 with the rain lobbing down like it owes you money, and the track's gonna play honest. When it's slippery like this, you don't just bet form, you bet positions, you bet luck, and you bet the part of the race where everyone starts growing extra legs. The rail's True, showers are looming, and the tempo profile reads like a slow cooker, then everyone legging it in the last 400m like The Fast and the Furious finally got green-lit.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ellerslie, 1100m to 2200m m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play holding-on, then finish hard when the weight finds the ground)
Weather: Showers, windy, 13C, cold and sticky, watch for slippery patches (watch for gusts and late drizzle messing with footing)
Early lane guess: Bias towards on pace and midfield that can angle out without getting stuck
Tempo profile: Slow to genuine depending on race, but the common thread is late acceleration, not early heroics
Jockeys to follow:
Kyle Wilson-Taylor: keeps finding the right spot, especially when races don't sprint early
Craig Grylls: dangerous in these wet-soaked finishers, can turn a decent trip into a cheque
Michael Mc Nab: crews are live, and when they bring them in undercooked he still gets them rolling
Stables to respect:
S B Marsh (4 runners): usually has them ready to run and handles the wet well
S & E Clotworthy (3 runners): they love an on pace plan when the track goes soft
S B Marsh (4 runners): yep, same stable again, because the profile screams "they're here to play"
Punty's take: Ellerslie today is basically a Rubik's Cube, the rain turns it sideways, and you're trying to land on the face that pays. The pace is often slow, so those who sit close to the speed and get clear running are the ones you want. If you're too far back and you get caught behind a wall of legs, you're just watching the race unfold like a bad Netflix season.
The way I'm seeing it, the card rewards horses with a clean map and jockeys who know how to not panic on soft ground. That means I'm heavier on leaders or those stalking, and I'm looking for "value without being reckless", because a wet-track roughie has to have a specific story, not just vibes.
What it means for you: Be aggressive where the race shape suits, be boring where it doesn't. Your win bets are for when the horse controls the narrative, otherwise you're playing place side or each way where the finish is wide and the luck gets shared around.
For the betting game plan, I'm treating the day like this: lock in the three big anchors across the meeting, then build a multi spine that doesn't rely on one miracle. After that, it's race by race decision-making, with the roughies only when the pathway to victory makes sense in a Soft 5 on a slow day.