Saturday, 12 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Benchmark 84, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders likely to set up the straight sprint
Punty read: Naval Academy (No.5) is the obvious leader and if he pings, this becomes a race for the stalkers to run past tired legs. Jett Smash (No.6) has the on-pace style, Space Rider (No.1) wants a sweet run in midfield and can still hit the line if the pace stays honest. Ruska Roma (No.7) is the one who can get involved if the early battle burns out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Naval Academy (No.5) — $3.20 / $1.57 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 28.6% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.00x
Why Tight on the map as the leader, and recent excuses at Caulfield read like "wide ground, not bad horse".
2. Jett Smash (No.6) — $5.25 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 35.9% | Value: 1.01x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Ruska Roma (No.7) — $5.75 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.02x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
Roughie: Space Rider (No.1) — $5.75 / $2.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 30.9% | Value: 0.94x
Why She's a roughie by definition, if the race collapses in the straight she can still sneak up, but she's a bit of a wait-and-hope type.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with a few advantaged midfield runners, chaos in the middle
Punty read: Unit Five (No.3) looks like the classiest "do the job" type, but open fields punish single-lane thinking. Harry Lime (No.13) is a roughie because he can sit closer than you'd expect and then ask questions late. Big Wigs (No.4) is the value place watch, if he tracks the right rail run he'll be steaming at the 200.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Unit Five (No.3) — $4.25 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 24.6% | Place: 61.9% | Value: 1.23x
Why He's got the right rhythm for a 1400m open race, and if the pace is genuine, he's the one that keeps travelling instead of just hanging on.
2. Big Wigs (No.4) — $5.45 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 16.5% | Place: 62.8% | Value: 1.06x
Why Place angle fits the tempo, plus he's been up around the mark in the sort of races where you want an extra kick late.
3. Harry Lime (No.13) — $11.25 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.46x
Why This is the kind of horse that can surprise, but the place band isn't paying enough.
Roughie: Lara Antipova (No.5) — $10.25 / $2.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Held up last run, freshen up gear changes are on deck, but today I'm trusting the spine first.
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, leaders involved, closers get wind assistance
Punty read: This is sprint race in disguise, 1100m at Flemington means the first 400m decides the rest. Satono Glow (No.2) maps to get the run with cover and then hits the turbo, while Streisand (No.1) has the tactical gear upgrade and can punch through midfield. Lucky Brook (No.9) is the danger because with a hot tempo, backmarkers can get a free sprint in the straight.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Satono Glow (No.2) — $5.35 / $1.95 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$39.75
Prob 18.5% | Place: 57.2% | Value: 1.17x
Why The race pace suits him, and the track wind is exactly what you want when they're still strong at the 150.
2. Streisand (No.1) — $5.25 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.11x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Lucky Brook (No.9) — $7.75 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.26x
Why He can run on hard, but the value lane for place isn't right.
Roughie: Calamari Ring (No.4) — $12.00 / $3.40 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.07x
Why Backmarker profile, but if the leaders go too hard and open space appears, he's the sort to pop up at weird times.
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, multiple on-pace threats, rail keeps it tidy
Punty read: Mbube (No.6) is the pick because he's got that "don't write me off" factor, and the price is giving him a decent crack. Paradoxium (No.1) is a leader and the market respects him, but sometimes short odds on a hot pace can turn into a staying contest. Big Sky (No.3) is the supporting stalker who can make it a three-horse story.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Mbube (No.6) — $3.70 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet $20.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.50
Prob 27.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why Cross-over first time, coming in fresh-ish with the right kind of pace pressure around him. This looks winnable.
2. Paradoxium (No.1) — $3.33 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.80
Prob 18.8% | Place: 63.9% | Value: 0.72x
Why The leader, the job, and the place value is better than the win price.
3. Big Sky (No.3) — $5.60 / $1.72 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 57.6% | Value: 1.08x
Why He can finish but we're not forcing it in the place at this rank.
Roughie: Steel Will (No.5) — $9.30 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.01x
Why On-pace style, so if the race drifts apart he can still fill a spot and keep it interesting.
Race type: Open, 2500m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, staying rhythm, patience required
Punty read: Nearco Frod (No.3) is the backbone because slow tempo suits horses who can tuck in and then travel through the gears. Litzdeel (No.2) and Shockletz (No.6) both look like they can hold their own late, but on a slow 2500m you need the right moment, not a desperate sprint. Suffolk Star (No.10) is the roughie if the race opens up late and he gets a soft run at the right time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.50 pool)
1. Nearco Frod (No.3) — $4.35 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 23.9% | Place: 64.8% | Value: 1.20x
Why Proven at the right end of the staying game, and the slow pace means less early burn, more controlled finishing runs.
2. Litzdeel (No.2) — $4.25 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 19.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why Place looks safer than the win at this price, and he's got the class to be there when the race finally turns.
3. Shockletz (No.6) — $4.65 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.7% | Place: 58.3% | Value: 1.06x
Why Can run on, but we're backing the main pair for the hard cash.
Roughie: Suffolk Star (No.10) — $29.50 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.8% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.60x
Why The only path is late chaos in the straight of the staying race, if they all start doing the can-can at the same time.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, leaders peppering the race, value sits with the on-pace proper ones
Punty read: Sass Appeal (No.8) is the star. She's got the lead job and looks like she can put them under pressure early without burning herself. Fancify (No.7) is the perfect exacta partner type, while Cafe Millenium (No.1) is the "don't dismiss, might run a tidy one if something goes wrong" lane.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Sass Appeal (No.8) — $3.03 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 36.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.28x
Why Lead-and-hold vibe, plus the pace profile means she should be in the right place at the right time.
2. Fancify (No.7) — $7.85 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why A real chance — but at $2.55 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Cafe Millenium (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.15 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why Needs luck from the back and that's not how we make money.
Roughie: Welcometotheshow (No.11) — $11.25 / $3.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.99x
Why If they spread out early, she can swing into the money, but she's not a sure thing.
Race type: Quality, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pace runners have a big say, straight wind helps
Punty read: Oliveanotherday (No.5) is the sort of favourite you keep the faith with. She's got the pace profile and she's in the right tactical lane. Losesomewinmore (No.13) is the value runner who can mow down tired leaders if the tempo stays steady. King Of Roseau (No.4) is a live chance if he gets a clean, stalking trip, and Recon (No.9) is the sort to run into a trifecta if the race fractures.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Oliveanotherday (No.5) — $1.67 / $1.12 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 32.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.63x
Why On-pace, proven, and Flemington's straight helps these runners keep their momentum.
2. Losesomewinmore (No.13) — $12.25 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.64x
Why A real chance — but at $3.10 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. King Of Roseau (No.4) — $15.25 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.63x
Why He can get involved late, but place value isn't sitting right.
Roughie: Recon (No.9) — $17.25 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.59x
Why This is the "if the field stretches, he's in the picture" sort of roughie.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, big class, on-pace runners are dangerous
Punty read: Sheza Alibi (No.12) is my favourite for the nightcap style of race, 1600m at Flemington rewards horses who can hold position and keep finding. Sir Delius (No.4) is a sneaky place angle with real win upside if the track bunches. Mr Brightside (No.1) is the on-pace pressure horse and if he draws the right part of the straight, he's not done.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Sheza Alibi (No.12) — $1.54 / $1.01 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.48
Prob 42.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.73x
Why The leader vibe with enough class to keep going, and on a Good 4 she should get every chance.
2. Sir Delius (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 25.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.40x
Why Place value is the sweet spot, he's got the tactical speed and the straight wind helps the ones who travel.
3. Mr Brightside (No.1) — $11.00 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.30x
Why He's got ability, but place pricing isn't cooperating.
Roughie: Treasurethe Moment (No.10) — $18.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.01x
Why If the pace collapses late, he's one of the types who can ping, but he's a secondary threat.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, on-pace matters, midfield runners can still hit the straight
Punty read: Gold Coast Belle (No.4) is short for a reason, but I'm not married to win-only at that price. Salty Pearl (No.1) is value in the place, and On Display (No.8) is the late-cover type with the market not fully paying attention. Coeur Volante (No.5) is the roughie, and Butternut Princess is the "trap for the unwary" as she can run on hard if the gaps appear.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Gold Coast Belle (No.4) — $2.20 / $1.22 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 27.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.70x
Why On-pace profile, quick out of the gates, and the race shape suits a straight-run winner.
2. Salty Pearl (No.1) — $7.50 / $2.10 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 13.9% | Place: 44.2% | Value: 1.21x
Why Value place angle, and the excuses read like interference, not inability.
3. On Display (No.8) — $8.20 / $2.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.32x
Why Could run a race, but we're not forcing place at this level.
Roughie: Coeur Volante (No.5) — $9.30 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 0.91x
Why Needs the race to open and him to get a clean run in the last 300, otherwise he's a bridesmaid.
Race type: Open, 1700m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, midfield can swing, class and timing decide
Punty read: Storm Leopard (No.13) is the leader-in-waiting type and Justadeel (No.9) is the value place runner. Ambassadorial (No.6) is in the mix but he's more of a "if it breaks my way" play. Ziryab (No.15) is the roughie because when a horse lands a spot, he can hit the line like a truck in soft jeans.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Storm Leopard (No.13) — $2.88 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 25.0% | Place: 66.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why Strong win profile for this grade, and 1700m gives him time to settle and then pounce.
2. Justadeel (No.9) — $4.60 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 21.4% | Place: 60.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why Place is the play, his positioning and late effort suit a moderate tempo race.
3. Ambassadorial (No.6) — $8.75 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why Can run a good one, but the value on place is not where we need it.
Roughie: Ziryab (No.15) — $9.70 / $3.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why Roughie path is clean run in the middle and the pace not swallowing him before the turn.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,1,9,4 / 6,1,3,5 / 2,3,6 / 8,10,7,1,11 (240 combos x $0.20 = $48.96) -- 20% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,13,4,9 / 12,4,1,10 / 4,8,1,5 / 13,9,15,6 (256 combos x $0.20 = $50.40) -- 20% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,3,6 / 8,10,7,1,11 / 5,13,4,9,3 / 12,4,1,10 / 4,8,1,5 / 13,9,15,6 (4800 combos x $0.001041 = $5.00) -- 0.10% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Sass Appeal (Race 6, No.8)✗ — $3.03
2 - Oliveanotherday (Race 7, No.5) — $1.67
3 - Sheza Alibi (Race 8, No.12)✓ Won — $1.54
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Flemington on a Good 4 with the rail doing its thing (true entire circuit), and that light north wind up the straight is basically a free pass for runners who can keep finding. Translation, if you've got a cruising engine and a jockey who doesn't panic at the 600, you're in business. Expect tempo to be genuine early, and for the finish to sort the pretenders from the ones who wanna hit the line.
Today's card has that classic Flemington feel, where speed helps but class and timing win. I'm building my spine around the three horses most likely to get the job done across the day, then I'm scattering a few tasty challengers who can sneak into the money if the race shapes up like I think it will. Think "drama, but make it profitable".
And yeah, I've seen punters go broke backing the obvious favourite in every race. We're doing it smarter today, locking in the main lanes, taking value where it's sitting on the table, and letting the roughies have their little moment when the field strings out.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Flemington, midweek-to-weekend speedbox, 1100m to 2500m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Speed vs Stamina showdown)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 18°C, light north breeze (watch for wind-boosted closers down the straight)
Early lane guess: Midfield lanes with options out to the open straight, don't be afraid of stalking positions
Tempo profile: Genuine early pace, with wind helping runners sustain their sprint through the straight
Jockeys to follow:
Blake Shinn: settles into the right spots and he's got that calm "I'll take it from here" vibe.
Damian Lane: when he's on a leader or a prominent stalker, he usually lets the race come to him.
Craig Williams: the sort who knows when to angle to open space and when to bide his time.
Stables to respect:
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (12 runners): you can feel their hands are on the wheel in the middle stages, they keep finding runs.
M Price & M Kent Jnr (7 runners): when they add gear or set a tactical plan, it usually shows up.
C Maher (6 runners): the preparation is often spot on, especially at Flemington when the track's favouring momentum.
Punty's take:
Race 1 sets the tone with actual speed on early, Naval Academy the clear front marker, and the whole thing screams "leaders don't die easy". Space Rider and Jett Smash both look like they've got a path depending on how the pack compresses late. If the leaders go hard, the straight wind can help the stalkers run through, and if they go steady, the classier on-pacers get their kick.
Race 2 is an open mess in the best way, with Unit Five looking the backbone but value hiding in Harry Lime. If you love boring, bet the short ones. If you love dividends, you've gotta trust the ones with the right run style and the market has mispriced them. I'm leaning into that chaos angle there.
Race 3 is another straight-up brawl, hot tempo, and Over Excited being short in the market is why I'm not going near him in the roughie slot. This race is about runners who can handle speed pressure and keep picking at the line, so Satono Glow and Streisand are my "let's not overthink it" anchors, with Lucky Brook as the back-half menace.
And then we hit the sequence meat, Sass Appeal in Race 6 and Sheza Alibi in Race 8 are both the sort who can make these lanes feel like cheating if they start well and don't get trapped. The rest is about not dropping a leg when the tempo changes and the field strings out.
What it means for you:
If you're playing lanes, you've got to respect the short-priced legs because quaddies miss by tiny margins, not giant upsets. That's why my "skinny, balanced, wide" lane commentary is all about which legs are tight, which ones are open bunnies, and where the market shape looks like it's got a plan.
If you're playing singles and place, this is a day to be aggressive with the horses that map to run prominently and aren't getting stuck wide into the corner. Wind helps closers, so don't treat everything like a pure speed race, but do treat the early speed map as gospel at Flemington.
Finally, don't go chasing every roughie in every race. Pick your spots, have a crack, and if the track plays true to form, the quads and multis do their thing while the singles pay for your next round of chicken parmis.