Saturday, 12 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 800m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Trickett's Jewel early pressure (pace advantaged), Solicitor on pace from barrier 1
Punty read: This one's set up like a bunch of kids all trying to be the first one to the trampoline. No.3 The Solicitor is the key, barrier 1 and on-pacing style means he can control the early rhythm without needing heroics. No.6 Trickett's Jewel is the one pushing the tempo, so she can lead or sit in the pocket, either way she's giving the race a heartbeat. And then No.1 Atlan and No.4 Dubious Babe are the "how much room do they get?" stories, with the gear changes hinting at improvement, but maiden races are ruthless like that.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. The Solicitor (No.3) — $1.57 / $1.04 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.84
Prob 59.9% | Place: 61.6% | Value: 1.22x
Why Barrier 1, on pace, and he's been dealing with interference type excuses, so when the gaps show, he's ready to pounce.
2. Trickett's Jewel (No.6) — $4.30 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.79x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Atlan (No.1) — $5.00 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.94x
Why Blinkers first time can help, but in a maiden sprint, you want the map and the run pattern to be cleaner, and it's not as straightforward.
Roughie: Dubious Babe (No.4) — $14.00 / $3.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.48x
Why Backmarker needs everything to go his way, plus the speed needs to collapse a bit, otherwise it's running on from too far back.
Race type: Benchmark 60, 800m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders in play early with Lunar Eight and Subsidise pressing
Punty read: This is a sprint where the honest pace can trip up the wrong runner. No.2 Zedari is the clean speed-and-stay hit, drawn where he can sit close enough to the action without getting swallowed. No.3 I Am A Winner is the one with the pop upside, and he's got that gear change angle that often comes with a sharper first move. Lunar Eight can be right there too, but I'm backing the way the race shapes up rather than the way we wish it would.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Zedari (No.2) — $2.00 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.00
Prob 29.6% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.74x
Why On pace with the run style that suits a genuine 800m, and he's the one that can give you a straight run into the finish.
2. I Am A Winner (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.55x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Lunar Eight (No.1) — $3.50 / $1.72 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why Consistent enough and on pace, but I'm not forcing it at even money-ish territory when I've got the sharper on-map option first.
Roughie: Subsidise (No.6) — $10.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 17.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why He can lead, but he's also the type to get cooked if the tempo stays genuine and the pack keeps building momentum.
Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Craiglea Oreo set up early with Claw Machine stalking
Punty read: This is your classic 1200m "don't overthink it, just pick the right leaders" scenario. No.2 Craiglea Oreo is the one dictating terms from barrier 1, and once they get into rhythm on a Good 4, it's hard to knock them over. No.1 Claw Machine is the value angle as the stalker who can hit the line when the leader's being pressured. Joey D'or is the danger if the race turns into a straight fight, because he's got that handy-running profile that can steal a slice.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Craiglea Oreo (No.2) — $2.75 / $1.57 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 28.9% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why Barrier 1, pace helps the style, and this class feels within his reach if he gets a clean run into the bend.
2. Claw Machine (No.1) — $4.60 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.29x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Joey D'or (No.4) — $4.50 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.91x
Why Capable, but I'm not leaning on him as a main when the pace structure favours the front and the stalking attacker.
Roughie: Little Freddy (No.5) — $17.50 / $3.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.96x
Why Backmarker work needs the leaders to do everything wrong, otherwise it's a grinding run for minors.
Race type: Benchmark 70, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, Hurtle and Papasito types influencing the rhythm
Punty read: Newmarket at 1200m on a Good 4 is basically a pressure cooker. You need either a runner who can sit close enough to not get stranded, or one who's got the gears to keep building through the line. No.6 Ellibaby is a speed-and-hold type and she's the short price for a reason. No.3 Papasito looks the class angle with the pace-friendly profile, and he's the one who can outlast the chaos. No.11 Craiglea Merida is flying under the radar at the business end, so I'm watching for a fast-finishing cameo from him, especially if the race is strung out and the jockey gets a clear sprint lane.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Ellibaby (No.6) — $2.58 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 22.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why On pace, handles pressure, and the rail being true means you can get through without getting chopped up in weird ground-saving moves.
2. Papasito (No.3) — $4.30 / $1.62 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.10
Prob 21.9% | Place: 65.3% | Value: 1.29x
Why Class horse with the pace to stay in it, and if he rides the right part of the track, he's a live play for a top-two cheque.
3. Craiglea Merida (No.11) — $4.10 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why The run style fits and he can sprint, but this is one where the odds band isn't paying for the risk as a place bet.
Roughie: Mishani Reactor (No.4) — $9.40 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why Barrier blanket angle could help, but he's not the one I want to build around in a hot-tempo Newmarket.
Race type: Class 3, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, pace pressure leaning towards Three Gongs and Too Many Kisses
Punty read: 1400m Cup races are where you find out who's actually travelling, not just who's got a nice idea on paper. The Defender at $1.40 is getting treated like the real deal, and I agree, because in slow tempo races the leader can get easy runs without getting forced to do the sprint too early. General Wolffe and Too Many Kisses are your place threats if the race stays clogged and they can creep out to the open part of the track late. Hou Long Gwai is the roughie style, the type that can run into it when everyone else is busy doing paperwork in the straight.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. The Defender (No.4) — $1.40 / $1.01 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$4.80
Prob 40.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.76x
Why Best race profile in a slow run, he's got the positioning to be there when others start handing in their notice.
2. General Wolffe (No.6) — $5.50 / $1.62 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.72
Prob 17.2% | Place: 64.4% | Value: 1.27x
Why Can sit in the middle of it, then finish with intent, and that place price is the sweet spot.
3. Too Many Kisses (No.8) — $8.00 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 40.7% | Value: 1.44x
Why She can absolutely run a big one, but the place pricing band isn't giving value enough to warrant it as a bet.
Roughie: Hou Long Gwai (No.3) — $12.00 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.42x
Why If the tempo keeps dragging and the inside gets sticky, he can swoop late, but it's not the sort of thing I want to over-expose.
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - The Solicitor (Race 1, No.3)✓ Won — $1.57
2 - Zedari (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $2.00
3 - The Defender (Race 5, No.4)✓ Won — $1.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Thangool on a Good 4 where the speed gets first dibs and the rest have to earn it like unpaid overtime, alright? Only 5 races, but it's already got that vibe where one shorty streaks off and then the rest are basically a mystery box with legs. I'm keen to back the horses that map, stick to the lanes where the meeting looks predictable, and then chuck a roughie in the tote like a gremlin in a chip shop. Respect the leaders, but don't get married to them.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Thangool, 800m to 1400m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Fair to fast, with on-paces benefiting)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 23°C, humidity 41%, wind 13km/h ESE (watch for gusts 25.9km/h, rain chance low)
Early lane guess: Busy early, with leaders and on-pace types having the first say
Tempo profile: Mostly genuine tempo, especially in the 800m races, then a bit more ride-and-react in the Cups
Jockeys to follow:
Mitch Goring: gets the snap when the race shape suits him, and he's on some of the map plays across the card
Adam Spinks: steady hands, tends to place them where they can sprint, especially in the tighter contests
Raul Silvera Olivera: shows up on the right horses for the right scenarios, and he's not afraid to get stuck in early
Stables to respect:
Ms L Horstman (1 runners): brings a real "start to finish" vibe when the horse is ready, pay attention to the gear and intent
Damien Rideout (1 runners): when a runner's been bumped and hampered, he's the type that can bring them back sharper
Michael Stephens (2 runners): likes to have them performing close enough to cash checks, and he's got the Cup types ready to make a move
Punty's take:
Alright, here's what I'm seeing at Thangool. The rail's true, the track's Good 4, and the tempo is set up so the speed is hard to hold out early, especially in the 800m races. So if you're not on the bit, you're spending half the race arguing with the invisible wall. That means I'm siding with the on-pacers and the ones with pace maps that scream "I'll be in the race, mate."
Race 1 is a classic maiden sprint trap, where one of the "right there" types has to start running like they mean it. No.3 The Solicitor is the sort that usually goes close when the race gets its way, and the market's treating him like a serious player. Then Race 2 and Race 3 keep that speed theme going, but the value is hiding in the exact spots you'd normally overlook, wide or slightly overlooked while the favourite gets all the attention.
Race 4 is where it gets spicy. Benchmark 70 at 1200m with a hot tempo means you want the forward runners, but you also want one that can actually handle pressure without folding. Race 5 is the opposite story, more of a slow-poke grind into a finish, so you're looking for the horse that can sit in the flow, then pick off the tired ones in the last chunk. My job is to be aggressive where the map is strong, and picky where it's not.
What it means for you:
If you're new to Thangool, here's the punting translation: back horses that get a position, not horses that rely on luck and vibes. In Race 1 and Race 2, I'd rather be on the leaders and stalkers with market confirmation than chasing long odds hoping for a miracle. That's how you stay in the game long enough to find the actual winners instead of paying for education.
Race 3, I'm treating it like a speed versus class little showdown. The front-runner types can be dangerous, but the prices suggest you can snag a decent place result without burning the house down. Then Race 4 and Race 5 are about selecting the right kind of horse for the tempo, Ellibaby and Papasito are the kind that can survive a bruising, while Race 5 rewards the ones that can stay within striking distance, then spring at the line.
Now let's build the spine, get through the chaos, and make sure your ticket doesn't look like it was assembled by a bored racetrack cleaner at 2am.