For all of Punty's tips for Kempsey, head to https://punty.ai/tips/kempsey-2026-11-06

Rightio Degenerates, Kempsey is sitting on a Heavy 10 after 84mm in the last seven days, so this is a card where the mud does the talking and the form guide gets a thorough kicking. Eight races, 95 runners, and enough speed-map oddities to keep a stewards' inquiry busy until Christmas. Grab a coffee, pull up a stool, and let's go through it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Kempsey, 1000m to 1900m card
Rail: True (no rail position given in the data)
Official going: Heavy 10 (33mm last 24hrs, 84mm last 7 days)
Weather: Fine, live gusts 14.8km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: R1 Moderate, R2 Genuine, R3 Slow, R4 Slow, R5 Moderate, R6 Genuine, R7 Genuine, R8 Moderate
Jockeys to follow:
Grant Buckley: Seven rides, including Truly Graphic in Race 1, Purple Kitty in Race 8 and Creative Righteous in Race 7. Plenty of work to do across the card.
Luke Rolls: Seven rides, including Sweet Marlene in Race 1, Brilliant Knight in Race 2 and Home Siren in Race 6, the 1.85 favourite.
Aaron Bullock: Six rides, including Damas in Race 6 and Nugget Smart in Race 8, two of the bigger chances on the card.
Stables to respect:
A P Ball (13 runners): The biggest stable on the card by a mile, with Truly Graphic, Prestige Fantastic and In And Away among the runners.
P Cheers (8 runners): Purple Kitty, Creative Righteous, Sleuth and Argerich give them plenty of ways to test the bookies.
H R Dew (5 runners): Green Meadows in Race 8 and Pongola in Race 5, the latter drifting from $51.00 to $101.00.

Punty's take: Kempsey on a Heavy 10 is a speed-map story first and a form story second. Race 2 and Race 6 are the genuine-pace races where a leader gets to bowl along, with Nature Boy alone out of barrier 7 in Race 2 and Home Siren alone out of barrier 9 in Race 6. Race 1 and Race 8 look like moderate paces with plenty of runners wanting the front, and that is where the sit and the trail start to matter. Races 3 and 4 are slow-pace affairs where the backmarkers will get no favours if the leaders go slow and sit on the speed. Torpedo Tube in Race 3 is the one I'd circle on the map, sitting back at barrier 10 with the shape working for him. Race 4 is a moneyline race with a chalk price on Insain Chaos, who is drawn barrier 1 but has the middle of the field to work with.

Race 1 is where the market is most sure of itself, with Justice And Grace priced at $1.85. Race 6 has the same sort of short price in Home Siren, and Race 5 is a three-horse race in the eyes of the market. The bankers are thin, though. Race 7 is an open race where the speed map has one leader uncontested and the favourite is a mid-pack horse, which is a recipe for surprises. Race 8 is the chaos race, with 16 runners and nothing above 15% on my numbers.

What it means for you: Play the Big 3 and the sequences with your eyes open. Race 1 and Race 4 are where the favourite does the heavy lifting, so keep the stakes sensible and don't chase the price. Race 6 is the race to be aggressive in, because Damas gets the leverage of a leader that is up front alone and the place market is giving you room. Race 3 is the value race, with Torpedo Tube the stand-out for both the win and the place. Race 8 is the chaos race, so keep the staking light and let the Nugget Smart win bet do the work.

Protect yourself in the open races and back your conviction in the handicaps. If a race goes to a sprint finish on the heavy, the horses that have proven themselves on the mud should get the nod. Don't overplay the Race 7 favourite, because the speed map says a bunch of runners can get near the lead and make the pace look ordinary.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Justice And Grace (Race 1, No.7) — $1.85
Why The strongest numbers on the card and a trainer-jockey combo that has been winning at this track, though it's a short price, so I'm backing him on the strength of the form rather than the value.
2 - Insain Chaos (Race 4, No.5) — $2.00
Why Drawn barrier 1 in a slow-pace race, but he's been placed in each of his last three starts and the price still looks short for the chance he has.
3 - Torpedo Tube (Race 3, No.11) — $3.40
Why Sits back from barrier 10 in a slow race that suits the back of the field, with the fastest closing sectionals on the card and a place price that gives you room.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 12.58 = $125.80

Race 1 – Kempsey Macleay RSL Club Country Boosted Mdn Plate

Race type: MAIDEN, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper, but nobody maps to lead, so Star Of Vega (barrier 6), Truly Graphic (barrier 7) and Sweet Marlene (barrier 5) will all have to work forward from the wide draws. Billybago and Star Of Vega both get helped by the pace, while Royal Ribbons from the back is the horse the shape hurts most. I can't pin a settling spot for Justice And Grace, so I'm not going to pretend I know where he will sit.
Punty read: Justice And Grace (No.7) is the bet, and the reason is simple: he is the strongest on the numbers and the market has him as the one to beat. Ben Looker and Colt Prosser are not the pair here, but Ben Looker and the trainer combo at this track have been a winning partnership. The danger is Truly Graphic, who ran well from a wide draw, and Sweet Marlene is a horse I'd want to see on heavy before I trust her. Star Of Vega at a bigger price is the one with the best outside shot if things fall right.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Justice And Grace (No.7) — $1.85 / $1.20
Bet $15.00 Win, return $27.75
Prob 39.6% | Place: 63.4% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why The market has him as the one to beat and the numbers agree, with the trainer's strike rate at this track sitting at 18.8% and jockey and trainer combo running at 28.6%. Blinkers, ear muffs and a lugging bit are all on for the first time, so the connections are clearly trying something.
2. Truly Graphic (No.4) — $3.50 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Sweet Marlene (No.6) — $3.50 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why 0 wins from 6 on heavy, but she has two placings in that time, and the sectionals are the fastest on the card.

Roughie: Star Of Vega (No.3) — $13.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers on for the first time, and a 4th at Port Macquarie 1004m after a slow start. If Justice gets caught out wide, a lively sit behind the leaders could get Star Of Vega into the finish.

Race 2 – Pynx Cranes Showcase (Bm74)

Race type: BENCHMARK 74, 1900m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Nature Boy alone out of barrier 7, so he'll lead without anyone making a fuss. Brilliant Knight from barrier 4 and Casino Bear from barrier 1 are the nearest pressure, and Zou Big Boy wants to be in the picture from barrier 6. The pace suits the runners sitting handy and in the midfield, and Prince Is Game is the one the shape works against.
Punty read: Prince Is Game (No.6) is the bet because he is the one I trust over the 1900m with a heavy surface and the sectionals to get home. The genuine pace on paper is against him, and I'm not going to pretend it isn't, but a Taree 2000m win on 2026-10-16 tells me he can win when the race is run hard. Brilliant Knight is the danger, sitting handy with a close record on the heavy, and Zou Big Boy's fast closing sectionals make him a live chance too. Casino Bear at a bigger price is one for the sharp punters.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Prince Is Game (No.6) — $3.00 / $1.62
Bet $12.00 Win, return $36.00
Prob 28.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why Heavy 9:2-1-1, so two wins from nine on heavy, and the Taree 2000m win last start is the strongest form line in the race. Sectionals rank 2 in both L600 and L400, and Ben Looker's strike rate at this track is 12.7%.
2. Brilliant Knight (No.3) — $2.85 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Zou Big Boy (No.5) — $6.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Heavy 7:3-0-1 and a 1st-up record that is 0 wins from 3, but the L600 and L400 sectionals are rank 3 and he has a last-start 4th at Tamworth.

Roughie: Casino Bear (No.1) — $16.00 / $4.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 16.7% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why Bumped and hampered at Taree 1600m last start, so the run was better than the result. If the leader gets run down, Casino Bear could come from barrier 1 with the inside running.

Race 3 – Seabreeze Hotel South West Rocks Showcase Mdn Hcp

Race type: MAIDEN, 1250m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with Saturn Rising (barrier 5) and Sunny Quarters (barrier 11) the likeliest to find the front, but Sunny Quarters has to work across from the wide draw. Prestige Fantastic and Torpedo Tube both get helped by the slow shape, and the runners in the back half need cover to get involved. This shape suits the runners coming from back, and Torpedo Tube from barrier 10 is the one I'd like the most.
Punty read: Torpedo Tube (No.11) is the bet because the shape is in his favour and the closing sectionals are the fastest in the race. He has form at Port Macquarie 1000m, a 2nd from 8 at 0.9L, and Mikayla Weir's combo with the trainer is 15.9%. Prestige Fantastic is the danger, a midfield horse with a strong jockey at this track, and No Sound is a horse the market has pushed out to $3.40. The roughie In And Away has the sectionals to run on from the back if the front runners stall.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Torpedo Tube (No.11) — $3.40 / $1.57
Bet $15.00 Win, return $51.00
Prob 33.6% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 1.14x Steady since tip
Why Fastest L600 and fastest time in the race, with a 2nd from 8 at Port Macquarie 1000m last start. The slow pace is his kind of race from barrier 10.
2. Prestige Fantastic (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 39.2% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. No Sound (No.7) — $4.80 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.60x Steady since tip
Why Jockey strike rate at this track is 12.7%, and the combo with Paul Snowden is one of the best on the card at 28.6%.

Roughie: In And Away (No.5) — $9.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 0.55x Steady since tip
Why Held up at Newcastle 1400m and a 1st-up debut-era runner, with the L600 and L400 sectionals in the top three. If the slow pace collapses into a sprint, In And Away could run on from the back.

Race 4 – Crystalite Linemarking Showcase Super Mdn Hcp

Race type: MAIDEN, 1450m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with Bobbin Back the only horse that maps near the lead from barrier 10, and he has to work forward from the wide draw. King Kalakaua, Must Diamond and Sleuth all get helped by the shape from further back, while Insain Chaos from barrier 1 is the one the shape works against. The runners who sit in the back half will need the pace to fall apart to win.
Punty read: Insain Chaos (No.5) is the bet because he is the best-credentialed horse in the race, with a placing in each of his last three starts and a strong combo with the trainer at this track. The shape is against him, and he's drawn barrier 1, but the price is short for the chance he has. Hey Kalumba and Sleuth are the danger from the midfield, and Trackhawk is a long chance from the back. The market has Insain Chaos at $2.00, so this is a short-price bet, not a value one.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Insain Chaos (No.5) — $2.00 / $1.17
Bet $15.00 Win, return $30.00
Prob 39.5% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why Class 7 record of 0 wins and 3 placings, the trainer's strike rate at this track is 13.1% in the last 100, and he has been placed in each of his last three starts. He's 2kg up from last start, and jockey Kyle Wilson-Taylor is on a cold run, so I'm not going to pretend this is a banker.
2. Hey Kalumba (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 41.2% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Sleuth (No.11) — $6.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 41.0% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why Fastest time in the race and the closing sectionals are strong, but Paige Fergusson-Smith's record on this card isn't flattering.

Roughie: Trackhawk (No.3) — $15.00 / $3.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why Winkers, ear muffs and a lugging bit all going on for the first time, so the connections are trying to get him switched on. If the speed collapses, a horse from the back at a long price can run on.

Race 5 – O'Donnell And Hanlon Showcase (Bm58)

Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1250m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Xtra Approval, Under Twenty Two, Fancy Shoulder and Argerich all wanting the front, so there's a fight for the lead. Fancy Shoulder from barrier 4 gets the sit, and the runners at the back like Just One Look and Cool Az Aletta can get the shape behind the speed. This is a shape that suits the runners who sit handy.
Punty read: Fancy Shoulder (No.3) is the bet because the shape is helping him and the trainer's combo with the jockey is 18.5%. Under Twenty Two from barrier 7 will be the danger if he gets the sit behind the leaders, and Frankely Sublime has the fastest sectionals on the card. Jeunetos at a long price is the one who can win if the leaders run themselves into the ground.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Fancy Shoulder (No.3) — $3.70 / $1.62
Bet $10.00 Win, return $37.00
Prob 23.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why Handy from barrier 4 in a moderate race, the shape helps him and his 1st-up record is 3 starts with one win. Courtney Bellamy and the trainer's combo make him a horse I'm happy to back.
2. Under Twenty Two (No.2) — $4.80 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Frankely Sublime (No.5) — $4.60 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 42.8% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why Fastest L600 and L400 sectionals on the card, with a 1-from-3 first-up record and a 9th at Kembla Grange last start that was bumped and hampered.

Roughie: Jeunetos (No.6) — $11.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Won at Kempsey 1450m on 2026-09-05 and has a 5-from-5 track record of 1 win, so he knows the surface. The shape helps a midfield runner in a moderate race.

Race 6 – Steve Keir Memorial Showcase (Bm66)

Race type: BENCHMARK 66, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Home Siren alone out of barrier 9, so he'll lead without a challenge. Damas from barrier 10 has to work across, but the shape helps him, and A Touch From Fayt and Diva Rouge both sit handy in the midfield. This is a race where the leader gets the speed and the runners behind him need to stay in touch.
Punty read: Damas (No.1) is the bet on the each-way because the genuine pace is in his favour and his heavy record of 3 wins from 16 on good suggests he can handle the ground. Blinkers go on for the first time, and his last start was a 7th from a wide run. Home Siren is the danger, a leader who won last start at Port Macquarie 1000m and is very short. A Touch From Fayt and Diva Rouge give the speed-map punters a couple of places to look.

Top 3 + Roughie ($4.50 pool)

1. Damas (No.1) — $4.80 / $1.65
Bet $4.50 Each Way ($2.25W + $2.25P), collects $14.51 if it wins ($10.80 win + $3.71 place), $3.71 if it only places
Prob 24.9% | Place: 54.3% | Value: 1.20x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers on for the first time, a genuine pace that helps him from barrier 10, and 3 wins from 16 on good ground. His last run was a 7th from a wide trip, so the form is better than the finish.
2. Home Siren (No.8) — $1.90 / $1.12
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.8% | Place: 59.5% | Value: 0.45x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. A Touch From Fayt (No.9) — $7.50 / $2.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.24x Steady since tip
Why Heavy 5:3-1-0, so three wins from five on heavy, and a 2nd at Port Macquarie 1100m last start. He sits midfield and gets the trail behind the speed.

Roughie: Diva Rouge (No.6) — $10.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why Heavy 2:1-0-0 and fastest time in the race, and she sits handy from barrier 4. If the leader gets run down, she can win from the speed group.

Race 7 – Akubra Kempsey Cup

Race type: Open, 1450m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Golden Copper alone up front from barrier 8. Creative Righteous, Get Some Fun, Navy Buoy and King Of Dragons all sit handy behind him and get helped by the pace. Jade Trees from barrier 4 is midfield and the shape is against him, so he has to win from the back of that group.
Punty read: Jade Trees (No.8) is the bet because the closing sectionals are the fastest on the card and his heavy record is 1 win from 3 with a placing. Blinkers are not part of the picture, and his weight drop of 6kg from last start makes him a horse to back. The danger is Zaru from the back, who is a heavy-track horse with 15 starts on the ground and 1 win, and Kaihoko from barrier 7 who will be running on from the middle. Golden Honour at a long price has the sectionals but no help from the pace.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)

1. Jade Trees (No.8) — $3.80 / $1.70
Bet $9.50 Win, return $36.10
Prob 20.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why Fastest L600 and L400 sectionals in the race, with a 6kg weight drop from last start and a 3rd at Beaumont 1350m. The shape is against him, but his closing run can beat a leader who is alone out front.
2. Zaru (No.1) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Kaihoko (No.4) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why A 3rd at Port Macquarie 1500m last start and a 4-from-28 career with 3 placings on the heavy. He's 0 wins from 4 at 58-60kg, which is a warning sign.

Roughie: Golden Honour (No.12) — $15.00 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why A 2nd at Beaumont 1350m last start and heavy 11:3-1-0, so he's a horse the track suits. The weight warning is a concern, but he's a value runner from midfield.

Race 8 – Team Edwards At Harcourts Country Boosted (Bm58)

Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1450m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with He's Godspeed (barrier 12), Nugget Smart (barrier 5), Contaldo (barrier 1) and Aye Aye Skipper (barrier 3) all in the frame to lead, so there's a scrap up front. Purple Kitty from barrier 18 has to work across the field, and the shape helps the back-half runners like Carmine and Crashmyplaya. Nugget Smart from barrier 5 gets the sit, and the shape helps him.
Punty read: Nugget Smart (No.3) is the bet because the shape is in his favour, the jockey and trainer combo is one of the best in the field at 25%, and the last run was a 6th at Muswellbrook 1500m on 2026-10-19. He's 4kg up from last start, which is a concern, but a 1st from 7 at Tamworth 1400m on 2026-09-28 tells me he can win. Fancy Shoulder is booked in Race 5 as well, so check the jockey line before you jump. Aye Aye Skipper is the danger from the front, with the shape against him, and Purple Kitty is the roughie who is wide but can run on.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)

1. Nugget Smart (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.55
Bet $11.00 Win, return $35.20
Prob 13.7% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.44x Steady since tip
Why Handy from barrier 5 in a moderate race that suits him, with a 1st from 7 at Tamworth 1400m last start. He's 4kg up from last start, so the weight is the question.
2. Fancy Shoulder (No.16) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Aye Aye Skipper (No.6) — $4.40 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.48x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 3 but the shape is against him, and his heavy record is 1 win from 5. He has a placing in four of his last 39 starts, so I'd rather watch him than back him.

Roughie: Purple Kitty (No.8) — $13.00 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Wide from barrier 18, but the shape helps him from handy and his last start was a 4th at Taree 2000m with a medical or physical excuse. If the leaders go hard, the wide run might not cost him much.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R1–R4)

Smart: 7,6,4 / 6,3,5 / 11,1,7,2 / 5,1,11 (108 combos x $0.3241 = $35.00) -- 32.4% flexi
Punty's take: Justice And Grace and Prince Is Game are tight enough, Torpedo Tube is tight enough in Race 3, and Race 4 is wide open with four legs. The flexi is 32.4% against a 30% floor, so this is a solid play that will pay if the favourites hold.

QUADDIE (R5–R8)

Smart: 3,2,5,6 / 8,1,9 / 8,4,1,9 / 3,6,16,8 (192 combos x $0.33854 = $65.00) -- 33.9% flexi
Punty's take: Four open legs means this is a chaos ticket, and the flexi is 34.7% against a 30% floor. Short-priced winners rarely pay, so it's the $5 to $10 winners in Races 5 to 8 that will carry it.

BIG 6 (R3–R8)

Smart: 11,1,7,2,5 / 5,1,11,3 / 3,2,5 / 8,1,9,6 / 8,4,1,9 / 3,6,16,8 (3840 combos x $0.001302 = $5.00) -- 0.13% flexi
Punty's take: Six legs, 4320 combos, and an entertainment-only ticket with a 0.12% flexi against a 0.10% floor. Keep it small and enjoy the ride.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Blinkers go on first time for Star Of Vega
Blinkers went on for Star Of Vega in Race 1, and his price has come in from $17.00 to $13.00 while the Port Macquarie 1004m 4th after a slow start was the last run.

2 - Truly Graphic is first-up and 97 days off
Truly Graphic is resuming 97 days off with a 1st-up record of 1 start and no wins, and the ear muffs and lugging bit are on for the first time, so the connections are trying something new.

3 - Pongola's price has drifted like a boat with no anchor
Pongola has gone from $51.00 to $101.00 in Race 5, and the blinkers are off again. Nobody's arguing that he's a tipster's dream, but the market has well and truly given up on him.

FINAL WORD FROM THE LOOSE UNIT LOUNGE

Kempsey on a Heavy 10 is a card where the mud writes the story, and the best punters will be the ones who read the speed map before they read the form. Get your tickets sorted, respect the favourites, and go easy on the chaos.