Monday, 22 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed with Goodello likely to lead, Boridi and Into The Music keeping the pressure honest
Punty read: This is a proper little maiden speed exam. Shades Of Pink is the one the market is leaning on and I can see why - the map is kind enough, and in a race like this you want the horse that can sit just off the fireworks and land the blow. Goodello will try to run them along, but he's got a couple of others who can make life awkward if they all want the bunny. Saatchi comes in fresh with the gear stripped back and that's the sort of move that can wake a horse up like a double shot espresso. Boridi is the one you keep in the pocket for the exotics if it gets messy, but the locked play says the stable certainty is elsewhere. If this turns into a genuine burn-up, the right horse can just sweep the lot of them like a boss fight in the final level of a video game.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Shades Of Pink (No.12) — $2.55 / $1.25 🏆 6TH
Bet $11.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Prob 28.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.85x
Why Has the map, has the class edge, and this looks like the one that can get the right sit while the others burn petrol early.
2. Boridi (No.10) — $6.20 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.84x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Saatchi (No.16) — $7.75 / $2.40 🏆 11TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 12.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.83x
Why Fresh horse with gear changes that can sharpen him up, and he's the sort who can be steaming home when the leaders start gasping.
Roughie: Goodello (No.7) — $9.45 / $2.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.43x
Why The speed map is his friend, but he'll need to pinch a cheap section somewhere or the others will run him down.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Lotta City likely gets the right stalking run while the on-speed types try to make it a crawl
Punty read: This is where the card starts getting a bit sneaky. Lotta City is the obvious anchor and deserves the respect, but slow-run maidens can turn weird in a hurry if the rider gets cheeky and starts walking them. Jenni Bassett is the horse I'd be most interested in underneath the favourite - barrier 13 isn't ideal on paper, but the map says she can roll forward and park in the right spot, and the market has already had a nibble. Sunset Trail is the fresh horse, and the stable has made some noise with the gear changes, so you don't want to ignore her just because the price got shaved hard. This is the sort of race where one horse gets a perfect run and the others are all left sniffing glue in the straight.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Lotta City (No.5) — $2.11 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.10
Prob 40.2% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why Has the strongest profile in the race and should get every chance if the tempo is even slightly genuine.
2. Sunset Trail (No.14) — $4.85 / $1.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 16.3% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.99x
Why Fresh legs, gear changes, and a map that says she can lob into a run and keep coming when others flatten out.
3. Jenni Bassett (No.4) — $6.50 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Prob 14.4% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 1.61x
Why The one with value written all over her if she can use the speed and avoid being buried behind a wall of slow-motion nonsense.
Roughie: Representative (No.7) — $10.25 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.15x
Why Can figure if the race gets soft up front, but the main play is already covered.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Shindy should get first run at it, with the backmarkers needing luck and a bit of wizardry
Punty read: Shindy looks like the horse everyone else is trying to chase. Slow-run mile, decent draw, and enough tactical speed to sit where the race is won - that's a very nice place to be at Pakenham Synthetic. Blanche Bass is the one who can keep it honest from the lane and she's the kind of mare who can be a pest to the others if the tempo is only walking pace. Dr Davinci is the solid, reliable type who keeps showing up around the money and should get another lovely run in transit, while Numbersneverseen is the lurker if they overdo it. Eye Tracker is the roughie if the race gets messy, but this looks more like a race where the best-positioned horse simply wins because the others are still arguing over the front door.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Shindy (No.11) — $2.16 / $1.22 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 42.5% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.22x
Why The one with the best tactical setup, and in a crawl of a race that's worth its weight in gold.
2. Blanche Bass (No.8) — $5.60 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 17.5% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.16x
Why Fresh enough to be dangerous and has the sort of profile that can stick on for a nice place result if the race turns into a jog.
3. Dr Davinci (No.1) — $4.45 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.60
Prob 16.9% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.56x
Why Honest as the day is long and should be right there turning for home if the leaders don't get too much of a breather.
Roughie: Eye Tracker (No.9) — $11.50 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.34x
Why Needs the pace to collapse and a few doors to open, which is possible, but not enough to get greedy.
Race type: Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with a few on-speed types eyeballing each other, which should leave the last few cracks open for the swoopers
Punty read: This is the first proper chaos leg and it's got all the ingredients for a proper mug punter ambush. Easy Dun maps to get a fair enough run from barrier 2 and that's why the model is happy to lean each way rather than go full cowboy. Princing is honest and maps to be handy, but he's close enough in the market that you're not getting mugged to take him on. The Mansman is the rough edge with the big price and the wide gate, but if the pressure goes up he's the sort who can be mowing them down late while everyone else is busy waving their arms. Finance Shogun has some support and deserves respect, but this is not the race to die on a hill for him. Classic handicap stuff: a few with a chance, one with a cleaner map than the others, and one with a wheelbarrow full of excuses if it goes pear-shaped.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Easy Dun (No.3) — $5.55 / $2.15 🏆 5TH
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 14.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.98x
Why Maps well enough to get involved and should be finishing with purpose if the speed gets hot enough.
2. Princing (No.2) — $5.40 / $2.10 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.90x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. The Mansman (No.10) — $9.10 / $2.80 🏆 6TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 13.4% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.52x
Why The one with the sneaky value if the race strings out; he's the kind of closer who can turn a messy map into a payday.
Roughie: Finance Shogun (No.1) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.37x
Why Has enough zip to be around the mark, but the race shape says he's more a player than a banker.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with early heat from the on-pacers and enough pressure to keep the backmarkers honest
Punty read: This one's got more moving parts than a Rolex in a washing machine. That'smoneybrother has copped a proper market squeeze and you can see the logic - gear changes, enough tactical speed, and a race where he should be in the first wave. But the model still wants to play him as an each-way proposition, which tells you this is not a "pump it in and forget it" job. Firerated is the value play I like underneath because he maps to get a cleaner run and can be there when the tempo starts to pinch. Flying Mean is the live danger if the race opens up, while Noble Style is the roughie who can run a bold race if the run on happens to suit.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. That'smoneybrother (No.3) — $3.65 / $1.60 🏆 8TH
Bet $6.50 Each Way ($3.25W + $3.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 16.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.79x
Why He's been crunched by the market for a reason and should get a very handy run, but the price is a bit skinny for me to get all starry-eyed.
2. Pravaha (No.9) — $4.10 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Firerated (No.2) — $7.75 / $2.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.50
Prob 14.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.47x
Why Maps beautifully to be in the first few and looks the one most likely to keep finding when the speed starts to chew through legs.
Roughie: Noble Style (No.10) — $11.00 / $3.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why Wide enough to be annoying, good enough to be dangerous if the race melts down late.
Race type: Handicap, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace over a sprint trip - which usually means the right on-speed horse gets a stack of help, and the wrong map gets you cooked
Punty read: This is a 1000m synthetic dagger. Mafee is the anchor and the one the day leans on, but it's not a race where you want to be smug and start counting your money before they jump - Bifrost, Fileeta, Octrain, Shocap and Ruby Avenue all have map issues or awkward set-ups, which is exactly how synthetic sprints turn into chaos. Astari has the ability to stick around, but the price says no need to go overboard, and The Opportunist has the right sort of market support without making me want to write love letters. If the leaders ping and pinch a cheap half of the race, this is one where the back-half can look like a scene from Mad Max.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Mafee (No.5) — $2.75 / $1.32 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.38
Prob 15.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.52x
Why The day's anchor in a sprint where raw speed and position count for everything, and he's got enough of both to take serious beating.
2. Astari (No.4) — $7.20 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. The Opportunist (No.10) — $5.25 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why Can absolutely run a race if the map gifts him a sit, but there's not enough place security to force a bet.
Roughie: Fileeta (No.3) — $15.50 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.94x
Why Fresh gear changes and enough class to land a blow if the speed war gets ugly, but this is not the race to scatter the bank around.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, which makes the inside draw on The Negotiator a big plus and turns the race into a tactics chess match
Punty read: This is the sort of race that can make the favourite look ordinary if the rider gets it wrong. Lady Elsa heads the market, but I'm not keen to build the day around her when the map is screaming for a more tactical play. Materazzi is the one I want in the top line because if the race turns into a sit-and-sprint affair, he's got the profile to be right there at the business end despite the gate. The Negotiator from barrier 1 is the obvious fence-hugging threat and should get the kind of run that keeps him alive late. Give Some Lip is the sort who can stalk and pounce if the gaps come at the right time, while Capital Grace is the roughie for the brave only - freshened, gear tweaks, and a price that says "come and chase me if you dare."
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Materazzi (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$30.55
Prob 16.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.96x
Why Wide gate and a tricky map, but the race shape gives him a shot to swoop if they crawl early and sprint late.
2. The Negotiator (No.3) — $7.20 / $2.30 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.28x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Give Some Lip (No.15) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.99x
Why Has the form and enough class to be a menace, but the shape says he's more a nuisance than a bet.
Roughie: Capital Grace (No.6) — $12.25 / $3.50 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.76x
Why Fresh enough to be interesting, but the card's better served by the stronger map plays.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,3,10,1 / 9,3,2,10 / 5,4,10,1 / 5,15,3 (192 combos x $0.21 = $40.00) -- 21% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Shades Of Pink (Race 1, No.12)✗ — $2.55
2 - Lotta City (Race 2, No.5)✓ Won — $2.11
3 - Shindy (Race 3, No.11)✗ — $2.16
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Pakenham Synthetic with the rail true and a card full of maidens, mile grinders and one proper chaos handicap - this is the sort of meeting where the map matters more than the TikTok hype reel. If you like pace, position and a bit of clean air, you're in business. If you're waiting for miracle swoopers to come from the clouds like a Marvel post-credits scene, you might be in the wrong pub.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Pakenham Synthetic, 1000m to 1600m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Synthetic, expected to play fair but with a handy/on-speed lean when the tempo is only moderate
Weather: Partly cloudy, 12C, humidity 78%, wind 0km/h N (watch for track position and the first-turn battle more than the sky)
Early lane guess: Inside-to-middle is likely the best place to be, but the right run in transit will matter just as much
Tempo profile: Sprints look genuinely run, the miles range from crawl to controlled, and the quaddie legs are a proper map-and-traffic test
Jockeys to follow:
Jordan Childs, keeps landing on the right horses when the market starts sniffing around, and he can turn a decent sit into a winner in a heartbeat
Lachlan Neindorf, gets some of the day's best tactical rides, and he's the bloke you want when the race turns into a positioning war
Billy Egan, plenty of live mounts across the card, and he's on a few that map to have the last crack
Stables to respect:
P G Moody & Katherine Coleman (3 runners), the market keeps waking up to their runners, and they've got live chances in the right races
E & D Browne (3 runners), a few handy types spread across the card, including horses that should get every chance from the map
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (2 runners), gear changes, intent, and enough quality to make them dangerous in the right spots
Punty's take: This meeting is a classic synthetic grind: not enough punters respect the map until they're staring at the replay wondering why their swooper got parked in the carousel. The sprints are where the speed horses can get brave, especially if they snag soft sectionals early, while the 1400m and mile races are more about who gets the right run than who looks prettiest in the parade ring. That's why some of the market drifts here are a bit of a trap - they look like they've been left for dead, then the track and tempo hand them a cheeky excuse to bounce.
Race 1 has the usual maiden stodge, but there's a very clear story: Shades Of Pink is the class horse in the lane, Goodello can roll forward and try to pinch it, and Saatchi is the one I want sitting off the speed with the gear strip to sharpen him up. Race 2 and Race 3 are the sort of races where a short-priced winner can still be the right bet, but you don't want to go overboard because the place market tells you there's enough muck in the field to get you in the nose. Then the back half turns into a proper pub brawl - Race 4 is open, Race 5 is a speed scrap, Race 6 is a 1000m knife fight, and Race 7 is one of those slow-run handicaps where barrier one and a clean trip can make you look like a genius.
What it means for you: Don't get cute early. The first three races are where the day can set up nicely if the obvious ones behave, so I'm happy to play the locked picks as they are and keep the roughie heat out of it. From Race 4 onward, this is where the value and protection matter more than pretending every race is a pin-up contest. Lean on the horses that map to get a run, respect the freshen-ups with the right gear, and don't go chasing every big drift just because it looks sexy on paper. The quaddie is absolutely alive, but it's a wide lane - the sort of ticket that can rescue your day if the tempo gods play nice, or leave you muttering into your stubby if one of the shorties gets rolled by a fence-sitter. That's raceday, baby.