Monday, 22 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Exceedingly Brazen and Sensei Girl look the ones with the map edge, while A Little Xtra is the sleeper if the blinkers sharpen him up
Punty read: This is a little speed puzzle where the leaders shouldn't be cooking themselves, which usually means the horse who lands in the right spot gets every chance. Exceedingly Brazen has the map advantage and the stable hasn't gone crazy with the market, so he gets every conceivable chance to go one better. A Little Xtra is the wild card with blinkers on for the first time, and those gear changes can turn a donkey into a racehorse for about 200 metres before the truth comes out. Boom Bunny is the honest bugger who keeps fronting up and can salute for the place money if the others take turns to do idiot things.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Exceedingly Brazen (No.4) — $3.23 / $1.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$18.43
Prob 23.6% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.90x
Why Maps like a champ here despite the awkward draw, and if he jumps cleanly he's got the race shape to make them catch him rather than the other way round.
2. Esprit Lad (No.3) — $5.05 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Boom Bunny (No.5) — $5.25 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 16.3% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.74x
Why Honest as the day is long, gets a proper chance to stalk them and run into the money if the tempo is only fair rather than brutal.
Roughie: Sensei Girl (No.6) — $13.75 / $3.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.54x
Why The market's sniffed around her and the new tongue control bit might sharpen her up, but she's still going to need a smooth run and a bit of luck to reel in the main players.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Prince Pier likely to control it; Aye Vee Aitch is the classy closer, while the value angles sit with the honest ones that can sit handy and get every chance
Punty read: This is the sort of maiden where the favourite can look like a mortal if the map goes pear-shaped, but Aye Vee Aitch looks the right horse in the right race. Prince Pier is the likely leader and if he gets across cheaply he'll make them work, while Okay Zoomer is one of those annoying types that keeps showing up without quite putting the sword through the job. Shadyvale Al is the sort of horse the market has a look at and says, "alright then, show us", because the support is there and the horse is clearly not in the grandstand for a laugh.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Aye Vee Aitch (No.2) — $2.02 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$14.40
Prob 37.2% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.06x
Why Best horse in the race, maps to have the last crack, and the others look like they'll need a few things to go wrong to hold him out.
2. Prince Pier (No.1) — $3.35 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.10x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Okay Zoomer (No.5) — $7.20 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why The drift is a bit of a red flag, but he has enough ability to be dangerous if the leaders knock each other around and he gets the right lane late.
Roughie: Amber Affair (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.67x
Why Has the kind of profile that can run into the placings if the tempo is solid and the held-up run last time was the issue, not the engine.
Race type: Benchmark 55, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Blackthorn can sit handy, Talons and Bluebird Bay get their chance if they're close enough, and Betta Al is the one to come rattling home
Punty read: Blackthorn is the obvious top dog, but this is not a race where you can just assume the favourite is a lawnmower. The map says he should be in the right spot, though, and that matters a stack in a BM55 where half the field would rather be somewhere else. Talons is the smoky with the right run if the pace is steady, while Betta Al is the old warhorse who can swoop late if they start rowing in front like idiots in a boat race. Convo deserves respect too, because the market support says someone thinks he's ready to go bang.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Blackthorn (No.1) — $3.23 / $1.37 🏆 6TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 26.5% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Hard to knock when he's unbeaten this prep and gets a map that should let him control his own destiny rather than rely on other blokes doing the heavy lifting.
2. Talons (No.3) — $6.25 / $2.20 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.15x
Why A real chance — but at $2.20 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Bluebird Bay (No.4) — $3.83 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.70x
Why Blinkers off again and the profile says he needs things to go his way; if he settles and gets a trail, he can be right in it, but I'm not dying on that hill.
Roughie: Betta Al (No.9) — $11.25 / $3.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why The old boy maps to settle back and lob late, which is exactly how these messy BM55s can fall apart if the speed up front turns to soup.
Race type: Open Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Rouge Moulin likely gets the favourable run, while Colours Of Autumn and Turbeau are the classy types that need the race to be run like a proper race, not a Sunday jog
Punty read: This one feels like a tactics arm-wrestle. With not much tempo on paper, the horse that lands in the first half of the field without doing cartwheels will get every chance. Colours Of Autumn is the best horse in the race on the right day, Turbeau is the grinder who can make a mockery of a slow tempo if they gift him soft sectionals, and Rouge Moulin has the class to be a danger but the price is very skinny for a race that could get messy. Prince Akeem is the roughie I'd rather have onside than not, because he's going to be there when others are gasping.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Colours Of Autumn (No.3) — $4.05 / $1.95 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 19.3% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.98x
Why The class horse in a race that might be run at walking pace, and if he gets within cooee early he's the one who can put the race to bed.
2. Turbeau (No.2) — $5.10 / $2.30 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.14x
Why A real chance — but at $2.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Rouge Moulin (No.4) — $2.83 / $1.55 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.63x
Why Should get the right run, but she's priced like the whole town already knows the punchline.
Roughie: Prince Akeem (No.7) — $10.30 / $4.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.64x
Why The map and recent consistency make him the kind of bloke who can pinch this if the race turns into a sit-and-sprint stoush.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with a few on-pace types and a couple of genuine sit-and-smash runners; if Whirlwind or Toranaga get rolling, it could get open quickly
Punty read: This is the race where the form guide starts wearing a neck brace. Carpaccio is the nominal top pick but the value says there's not much room for heroics, while Nolan is the sensible sort who keeps turning up and has the right enough map to be around the mark. Kobayastar is the one the market will keep honest if the speed is genuine, and Kirikan is the bit of rough value that can make the exotics sing if he gets the right cover. Whirlwind has had a serious squeeze in the market, and you can see why if connections think he's ready to fire fresh enough.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)
1. Carpaccio (No.5) — $3.42 / $1.37 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.71x
Why First-up profile is okay, the blinkers are back on, and if he finds the right trail he can bounce back from the horror show last time.
2. Kobayastar (No.9) — $5.75 / $2.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.16x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Nolan (No.2) — $6.20 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet $2.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.20
Prob 14.3% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.14x
Why Maps well enough and keeps showing up in this sort of grade; the sort who runs a race without necessarily setting the world on fire.
Roughie: Whirlwind (No.8) — $23.00 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.07x
Why The heavy market chop is interesting, but he still needs the race to pan out for him like a bloke waiting for a train that might not be coming.
Race type: Handicap, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Willingale looks the one they all have to beat, with Breeches the big danger and Storm Capital the solid on-pace player if he begins cleanly
Punty read: This is the cleanest race on the card and the one where you can probably trust the shape without needing a séance. Willingale is the race's best betting proposition, Breeches is the place money machine if he gets the right sit, and Storm Capital is the annoying horse that could hold the top end together longer than you'd like. Foneeleven is the favourite in the market but the value doesn't really back the price, which is usually a good sign to keep your powder dry rather than act like the bookies owe you rent.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Willingale (No.5) — $4.60 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 29.5% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.74x
Why Top of the map, top of the shape, and the one who can make this look a whole lot simpler than the betting market wants to admit.
2. Storm Capital (No.2) — $3.15 / $1.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.3% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.78x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Breeches (No.7) — $7.20 / $2.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$14.85
Prob 15.7% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.45x
Why Maps sweetly enough and has enough recent honesty to be the bloke charging home when the favourite gets the yips.
Roughie: Galbalan (No.1) — $15.75 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.13x
Why He can take a spot and hang on for a slice if the others are too busy looking at each other, but the weight and the map do his punting no favours.
Race type: Class 4, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Gee Eye Why and Khumbila are the main map players, Lowlands has the market squeeze, and the roughies need the race to get a bit wonky
Punty read: This is the old "looks simple until it isn't" kind of sprint. Gee Eye Why is the obvious one, but the value angles are Khumbila and the sneaky roughie The Kamikaze, who is paying like a horse that either wins or finishes at the cafe. Lowlands has been backed and I get why, but the price says someone's already taken the short way home. Admitted and Aged Care are both live enough to make the exotics interesting, while Cifonelli is the one who might be finishing hard after being left with too much to do.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Gee Eye Why (No.6) — $3.52 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$13.73
Prob 21.7% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.96x
Why The most natural speed horse in the line-up and the one they all have to keep honest if he jumps cleanly and gets his head in front early.
2. Lowlands (No.9) — $5.25 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Khumbila (No.1) — $7.60 / $2.30 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$13.00
Prob 13.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.30x
Why Strong value angle with the right kind of Townsville form and a map that should let him land somewhere useful without a backyard fight.
Roughie: The Kamikaze (No.10) — $34.00 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.1% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.45x
Why If the speed gets silly or the inside bunch starts coughing up spots, this bloke can swoop into the frame and ruin someone's day in style.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,2,4 / 5,9,2 / 5,2,7,6 / 6,9,1 (108 combos x $0.30 = $32.00) -- 30% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Exceedingly Brazen (Race 1, No.4)✓ Won — $3.23
2 - Aye Vee Aitch (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $2.02
3 - Blackthorn (Race 3, No.1)✗ — $3.23
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Townsville on a Soft 5 with a bit of weather lurking later, so this is one of those cards where the map can be worth more than the glossy form line and the brave punter ends up looking like a genius at the pub.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Townsville, 1000m to 1400m card
Rail: +2m 1000m-W/Post; True Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play a touch on-speed early, then get more even if the rain shows up)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 19°C, humid, with a 13km/h SSW breeze and a decent rain risk hanging over the late part of the day
Early lane guess: Inside to stalking positions look handy in the short stuff; by the 1400s, if the track chops up a bit, the best-drawn swoopers can still have their say
Tempo profile: The sprints look map-sensitive rather than mad-cap; Race 4 and 5 are more tactical, while the quaddie legs have enough variation to keep you honest
Jockeys to follow:
Ryan Wiggins, gets on the right horses when the map is in his favour, and he's landed in a few key spots today
Sean Cormack, always dangerous around Townsville when he can park one within striking range
Ivo Fry, has enough live chances to matter, and he's the sort who can nick a result if the race falls into his lap
Stables to respect:
T Button (3 runners), has a couple of genuine players today and the stable looks set to cash in if the map gods play fair
S J Royes (3 runners), Aye Vee Aitch and Storm Capital are right in the mix, and that's the sort of stable pressure you respect
Graham R Hughes (3 runners), always has a live one somewhere, and he's got a few runners here that can jag a cheque if the race gets messy
Punty's take:
This is a Townsville card where the Soft 5 isn't necessarily a bog, but it's enough to punish the gobsmacked punters who think every race will be won by the flashiest horse in the yard. The first half of the meeting looks like a bit of a speed-and-position job, especially Race 1 and Race 2, where being handy without burning petrol could be the difference between a nice collect and a face full of racing form guide.
The middle races are where the pub arguments start. Race 4 and Race 5 look like proper chess matches: not heaps of obvious pace, a few honest campaigners, and enough interference risk to make the favourite sweat. Then Race 6 is the cleanest betting shape on the card, while Race 7 has that sneaky "could look simple, could turn into a dog's breakfast" energy if the tempo gets weird.
The market's already shown its hand a bit with money for Khumbila, Whirlwind, Aged Care, Lowlands and a few others, but the smart move today is not worshipping every firmer like it's the second coming of Black Caviar. This is a card where you want your money on horses that can map cleanly, handle the softish ground, and keep grinding when the early tempo goes a bit sideways like a bloke reversing a ute into a shopping trolley bay.
What it means for you:
This is not a day to get all macho and start swinging at every win bet like a mug on a heater. The card screams for selectivity. The cleaner races are Race 2 and Race 6, while Race 4, Race 5 and Race 7 are the ones where you either spread a bit or keep your powder dry and let the races sort themselves out. The likely money-makers are the horses with map help and enough class to settle the argument late.
I'd be leaning into the place or each-way style thinking on the closers and the honest grinders, because the conditions and the meeting shape suggest a few of these will hit the line without necessarily bolting in. If you want a straight-up anchor, the first three races give you the spine of the day; if you want to have a crack at the quaddie, you'll need to survive the chaos legs and not act like you've got a crystal ball and a tax accountant in your pocket.