Wednesday, 12 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, with on-pacers set to test each other early
Punty read: This one's about who gets to race honest and keeps their feet on Soft. Where's Timmy (No.4) looks perfectly placed to stalk without being forced to do it tough, and Long Laugh (No.1) has form reasons to bounce back, even if he's been unlucky with interference and wide trips lately. The danger is the "everything went wrong" brigade tipping out at the right time, especially if the leaders start clawing for footing and the inside starts to save ground.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Where's Timmy (No.4) — $2.60 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 29.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.36x
Why Barrier 6 and a map that lets him hold the right spots, he's built to keep grinding late on a Soft track.
2. Long Laugh (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.35 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.40
Prob 28.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.67x
Why The excuses are real, interference plus wide rides, and he's the type to make up ground when the field loosens up.
3. Run Yogi Run (No.12) — $10.00 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 61.7% | Value: 1.51x
Why Rougher path for the win, but if the pace blinks, he's there to snag a slice.
Roughie: Forever Elite (No.7) — $26.00 / $4.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.2% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 0.69x
Why Back end value is nice, but this one asks for the speed collapse and an open lane.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, tempo advantage to the runners who can park near it
Punty read: Slow tempo on a Soft track is where you either need to be near the action or you need to be a magic closer with a plan. Vienna Calling (No.10) is the one I want because the race shape suits a consistent run, and the market is backing it like it knows something. Celebratory (No.3) is the other obvious threat, and Just Petty Cash (No.9) is the type to hit the line if the leaders don't sprint away cleanly. Oscars No Grouch and Kentucky Drive can run on, but wide and wandering risk is always in play when the tempo is stingy.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Vienna Calling (No.10) — $3.20 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$44.00
Prob 31.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why He should get a decent rhythm behind the leaders, and this is one of those "Soft 6, hit the line" sorts.
2. Celebratory (No.3) — $3.10 / $1.50 🏆 8TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 24.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.96x
Why The gear upgrade plus the pace scenario gives it a genuine crack, especially if the race stays controlled.
3. Just Petty Cash (No.9) — $5.50 / $2.05 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 59.6% | Value: 1.21x
Why Place hope is there, but the model's saying this is more of a win-support story than a straight place play.
Roughie: Rocking In Vegas (No.1) — $9.00 / $2.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 48.5% | Value: 0.70x
Why Can run a cheeky race, but the top three are set up better for the exact tempo.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Dumpling leads pressure
Punty read: This is a "who holds up, who softens" type. Dumpling sets the tone and the whole race becomes about who can keep within striking distance without burning matches. Force Field (No.2) and Spirit Of Belle (No.6) look the best at handling that pressure, and Unanswered (No.4) is the sneaky one if it gets a perfect sit, because Soft 6 over 1200m means you can suddenly find gaps. Wickiup (No.7) and Raw Umber (No.3) can be dangerous, but the race shape is clearly favouring horses that can stay in the fight.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Force Field (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $17.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.50
Prob 23.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Best suited to a race where pace is honest, can sit mid and still be there when the leaders start to feel the strain.
2. Spirit Of Belle (No.6) — $5.50 / $1.80 🏆 5TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 20.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.41x
Why This is the stalk-and-pounce profile, it's been building toward it and the map helps.
3. Unanswered (No.4) — $6.00 / $1.85 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 56.6% | Value: 1.03x
Why If it gets clear running, it can slot in, but place value isn't clean enough for the model.
Roughie: Dumpling (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.75 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.07x
Why If the front holds on this Soft, Dumpling earns the right to be stubborn, even with pressure.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, but the handicap churn keeps it spicy
Punty read: 1500m in Soft means it's a proper test of who can keep pulling at the line. Berry Blast (No.3) has the profile and the form strength that screams "gets the trip" when the pack starts to string out. Streak Of God (No.5) and Back To Bondi (No.4) are the classic threats, especially if the speed doesn't go too hard. Sovereign Salute (No.6) is the rough value, because if it can land in midfield and avoid being shuffled too far back, it can absolutely sneak into the finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Berry Blast (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 21.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.39x
Why Sharp handicap form, trip suits, and on this track it's about who can keep applying pressure without fading.
2. Streak Of God (No.5) — $3.10 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 20.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why Blinkers help, and in a handicap like this, getting one less gap late is everything.
3. Back To Bondi (No.4) — $3.50 / $1.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.1% | Place: 63.1% | Value: 0.85x
Why The chances are there, but the model wants you protecting your place bets rather than overloading rank three.
Roughie: Sovereign Salute (No.6) — $10.00 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 41.2% | Value: 1.31x
Why If it finds a clean lane and doesn't get stuck, it's the one that can surprise, but today we keep the money sane.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Ginger And Tonic and Axopar help set the race up
Punty read: 1400m on Soft is a funny beast, you can be half a length too far back and suddenly the race is over by the 200m. Cosmic Waltz (No.3) looks the classier straight runner and the market supports the idea it's a threat. Axopar (No.12) is the value angle because it's the type to keep finding in these conditions. Buderim (No.5) is interesting for the win if it lands close enough, but today the model is mainly leaning on the place/coverage logic for the right horses.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Cosmic Waltz (No.3) — $3.70 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 23.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why Trip suits the way it runs, and on Soft 6 it has the engine to keep responding late.
2. Axopar (No.12) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.39x
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Buderim (No.5) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 65.8% | Value: 0.88x
Why If it hits the ground running it can be there, but rank three place value isn't strong enough.
Roughie: Diamond Warrior (No.1) — $9.00 / $2.85 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 43.4% | Value: 0.98x
Why Roughie route is real, just the money's tight and the top three cover the core.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, here for the right spot more than the lead
Punty read: This race shapes up like the sort where one horse just keeps breathing while the others start checking their stride in the Soft. Sisu Spirit (No.2) is the prime pick because it's got the pace profile to stay competitive through the bend and into the run home. Impressive Jewel (No.6) is the short price danger, Elegant Ruler (No.7) can place if it gets the clear lane. Argyle Star (No.3) is the rough chance, but it needs the race to fall in its favour and it's not the kind of roughie you just throw on without backup.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Sisu Spirit (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.82 🏆 2ND
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 25.3% | Place: 67.0% | Value: 1.59x
Why Best of them for a Soft 1600 run, it should get into a workable rhythm and keep fighting.
2. Impressive Jewel (No.6) — $2.90 / $1.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 16.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.60x
Why Sharp enough to be there early, and if the leaders tire, it can grab a spot.
3. Elegant Ruler (No.7) — $4.50 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 55.4% | Value: 0.92x
Why It's got the place ability, but the model wants you to avoid rank three place pricing headaches.
Roughie: Argyle Star (No.3) — $23.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.1% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 1.19x
Why Big price for a reason, you're chasing an upside swing if the pace falls apart.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, so positioning turns into survival
Punty read: 1800m and slow tempo means the race is all about finding a lane without being stuck behind tired horses. Lets Take A Chance (No.1) is the one because it's set up to handle the slow grind and still offer a real finishing burst when others get bogged in. Acquired Taste (No.5) is the value wrinkle. Grandad's Adiction (No.9) is the other one that can clunk into the top three if the race opens late. Awesome Force (No.3) is the roughie if it can sneak into the flow and avoid being too far back too early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Lets Take A Chance (No.1) — $3.20 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$22.00
Prob 27.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why Barrier 5, slow tempo, and the kind of consistency that loves 1800m on Soft.
2. Acquired Taste (No.5) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 12.9% | Place: 65.6% | Value: 0.69x
Why Blinkers off, visors on, and it's got the right profile for a late surge on a sleepy tempo.
3. Grandad's Adiction (No.9) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 56.9% | Value: 0.90x
Why It can hit a spot, but this is more of a win-saver than a clean place play for the model.
Roughie: Awesome Force (No.3) — $12.00 / $3.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.02x
Why Needs everything to line up, it's a "if the race falls apart" roughie.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, so the speed holds or it gets picked off
Punty read: 1200m on Soft means you need to be there when the real work starts, because the last 200m comes up quick and heavy. Swansee (No.9) has been set up to strike and the market likes it for a reason. Catch Carter (No.2) is the one I like for place value because it's got the on-pacer profile and should keep finding late. The Nun (No.7) is a genuine danger if it gets a clean run. Miss Altair (No.4) is the roughie, mainly because it's got pace and the soft-track style, but it needs a right run through the middle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Swansee (No.9) — $4.60 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$72.00
Prob 23.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.34x
Why Leader profile in a race that looks like it has to be raced, it should be hard to run down late.
2. The Nun (No.7) — $3.80 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 17.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why It's the sort that holds position through the turn and grabs a slice if the leaders wobble.
3. Catch Carter (No.2) — $7.50 / $2.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 66.8% | Value: 1.50x
Why Has the right map for a place, but the model isn't letting you pile in at this exact band.
Roughie: Miss Altair (No.4) — $12.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.04x
Why Roughie needs the lane to open and the pace to hold just enough for the sprint finish.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,4,12 / 10,3,9,1 / 2,6,4,8 / 3,5,4,6 (192 combos x $0.18 = $35.00) -- 18% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,12,5,1 / 6,2,7 / 1,5,9,3 / 9,7,2,4 (192 combos x $0.11 = $20.48) -- 11% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2 / 3 / 3 / 2 / 1 / 9 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Where's Timmy (Race 1, No.4) — $2.60
2 - Vienna Calling (Race 2, No.10)✓ Won — $3.20
3 - Lets Take A Chance (Race 7, No.1)✓ Won — $3.20
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Pinjarra on a Soft 6 where the track might as well be running a slow-motion group chat. The rails are +6m entire, so we've got that classic "stick to the fence and pray" vibe, but with genuine pace on some of these maps, you can get home even if you land a bit wide. Let's get into it.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Pinjarra Scarpside, 1200m-1800m card
Rail: +6m entire
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play Soft, sticky, and favour runners who can keep their position)
Weather: Sunny, 15°C (watch for gusty moments late)
Early lane guess: Middle of the track early, then lanes depend on whether speed holds or melts
Tempo profile: Some races look steady, a few are genuine pace affairs, so I'm chasing map-fit horses over "hope and vibes"
Jockeys to follow:
Brad Parnham: Often gets them positioned early when the tempo suits, and today there's heaps of races where settling matters more than raw talent.
William Pike: If the market swings his way, he's the one who'll actually execute the plan, especially in handicap races with pressure.
Joey Azzopardi: When there's room to move and save ground isn't perfect, he's normally good enough to manufacture it.
Stables to respect:
S J Wolfe (5 runners): Their horses tend to get value when conditions play, watch them for the "show up late" runs.
B A Miller (2 runners): If they've got the right gear on, they're dangerous, and they'll have one ready to pounce.
D & B Pearce (3 runners): Keep an eye on the pace maps, they often find a lane at the right time.
Punty's take:
Pinjarra Scarpside on a Soft 6 means every race turns into a little mud wrestling match, even if the form looks clean on paper. The rails are out +6m, so the fence is gold early, but if the leaders are too stubborn, you'll see them crack and the outside swoopers get their moment.
I'm building my day around the lanes where the pace is expected to function. In races that look moderate tempo, I'm happy to back the runners who already look like they'll be in the right spot without getting work. In the races with a genuine pace picture, I'm backing the leaders to keep their legs, and the stalkers to pounce when the track gets heavy on the hit.
Big picture, this is a card where value lives with the right map and the right gear. Not flashy, just effective. Like that mate who never says much, then quietly puts you onto the winner and pretends it was "easy".
What it means for you:
Your attack plan is simple. Be aggressive early with the races that are clear map-fit jobs, then get smart with the big handicaps, where one gear tweak or one soft-track sprint through the tears can flip the whole race.
In the early races, the spine is about horses that can either lead or at least hold position, because Soft 6 punishes wide wandering. If you're searching for a roughie, do it when the pace collapses or when the market firms for the wrong reasons. If you're playing place, don't overthink it, ride it like a lane bet. If the horse is positioned early, they'll find enough for the top three.
Alright, let's print the spine before the degens start arguing in the group chat.