2026 Victoria Derby Preview: Punty's Runner-by-Runner, Odds & Model

Cormier is the horse we like most at 20.3%, and he gets there on the strength of his last start. He ran third in a Group 1 over 2000m at Randwick, beaten under two lengths in a field of nine, and he did it at a long price. That's a big class test passed on his recent form, and a result that suggests the market underrated him then and perhaps still does now.

The rest of the record is patchy. He's won once from seven starts, with the earlier runs including a tenth and an eighth in short-trip Group company, both sprints where he looked out of his depth. The longer trips have suited him much better. He's never been beyond 2000m, so 2500m is a question, and a three-year-old stepping up that far is always a question.

Barrier 3 and a midfield map is a handy spot. He should get a trip without needing a miracle, and with no obvious leader he can sit just off whatever goes forward. Jamie Mott takes over from the Randwick rider, which is a small question mark without being a worry. The market's $5.70 against our fair price of $4.93 gives an edge of +15.6%. He's the most likely winner, he's priced at value, and he's still only about one chance in five. The each-way bet makes sense for that reason.

Stormy Marco is our second-ranked runner at 15.8%, which makes him a genuine danger, and the market has him as favourite at $5.40. Our fair price is $6.34. That's an edge of -14.8%, so we think he's a good horse who is priced a little too keenly. A decent horse at a short price is still a bad bet if the price doesn't match the chance.

The form is solid. Fourth in the same Randwick Group 1 as Cormier, beaten under three lengths, and second in a Group 3 at Rosehill over 1400m before that. That's real class. He's also drawn barrier 15, and he's a back-marker, which is where the trouble lies. From out there he will need either a soft trip or a genuinely fast tempo, and our map says nobody is obviously going to supply the second.

James McDonald is a big plus in the saddle. Chris Waller's stable form is fine, if not spectacular. He's raced first-up with a win and a second, but only two runs at that stage, which is too small a sample to say much. The 2500m is another first for him. Strong horse, wide draw, short price: that combination is why he's the danger and not the pick.

True Rebel won a Group 2 at Flemington over 2040m last start, and that gives him the best local form in the field. He's won two of his four starts and placed in all four, so he's a very consistent three-year-old. We rate him 4 at 7.9%, a fair price of $12.66, and the market has him at $9.40. That gives an edge of -25.8%, so he's a little overbet.

The issue is barrier 16. He settled midfield last start from barrier 3, and he'll be a back-marker from the gate this time. Billy Egan is a sensible jockey, but out wide with 2500m to run he's going to need luck to find a hole at the turn. He's also never raced beyond 2040m, and he only started his career in September, so the experience is limited.

His best runs have come on good ground, and his record on the soft is a single third. If the track tightens up that suits him. The form looks lovely, the price isn't great, and the draw is the problem. We'd want a longer price before we got involved.

King Snitz won a Group 3 at Caulfield over 2000m last start, and he did it at a very decent price, so the market didn't see it coming. That's the only reason he's in this race, and it's a good reason. We rate him 7 at 6.3%, a fair price of $15.85, and the market has him at $14.00, which is a touch short.

He's won two of his four starts, and one of them was a maiden at Warrnambool by a margin, so the form is rising fast. Damian Lane rides well, and barrier 5 is a handy draw for a back-marker. The concern is the class jump from a Group 3 in a field of eight to a Group 1 with 17, and the soft-ground record is two starts without a win.

Murshidi is our value runner, and he's the one we find most interesting because the market has him wrong. We make him 9.0%, which is a fair price of $11.11, and the market has him at $14.00. That's an edge of +26.0%. The bookies' own chance for him is 6.6%.

The form line is the one that goes straight up. Seventh, third, second, then a win in a Listed race at Geelong over 2200m last start, and 2200m is the longest trip any of these have actually won over in a stakes race. The win was close, and the rider was told to use more care, so he may have been green in the finish. He's a progressive horse stepping into the biggest race of his life, and the form says he's still improving.

Barrier 17 is the problem. He'll be a back-marker from the widest gate, and a horse that settles last from out there needs a lot to go right. Blake Shinn has been riding with great confidence lately, and Ciaron Maher's stable is in good order, but a great jockey doesn't change the draw. He's value on our numbers and not necessarily a likely winner, and that's the difference we keep returning to. The price has to stay at $12.80 or better for us to call it value.

Vallice has run second in a Group 3 over 2000m at Caulfield, and second in a Listed race at Flemington over 1800m earlier in the month, so the form around the track is solid. He's a stablemate of Murshidi and Skua, which makes a trio for Ciaron Maher. We have him at 5.8%, ranked 8, a fair price of $17.27 against the market's $14.00, so the market likes him a little more than we do.

The issue is that he's only won once from seven starts, and the draw of 13 will make the back-marker's life tougher. He's raced keenly at times, which won't help over 2500m, and the tactics have been queried more than once. He's a place chance if things go right.

Skua ran second in the Group 2 at Flemington last start, from the front, beaten by a short margin by True Rebel. That's the best form line in the field for a front-runner, and he has the benefit of having raced at the track recently. We have him at 7.4%, ranked 5, with a fair price of $13.57 against the market's $14.00, so he's only slightly underpriced.

The problem is the shape. Our numbers say the expected pace hurts the handy types most, and he's one of them. He's drawn 12, so he'll either use petrol to cross or sit outside the leader, neither of which is ideal over 2500m. John Allen is one of the better riders in a Derby, and the trainer is in great form with several runners, but the trip is a huge step up from his earlier runs. He's won once, in a maiden, and the longer trips are unproven.

Cignetti ran third in the Group 3 at Caulfield last start, and has three placings from six starts, so he's reliable without being brilliant. We have him at 5.0%, ranked 9, a fair price of $19.88 against the market's $15.00, so he's overbet. He's on the pace, and our numbers say that's the wrong place to be in this race. The 2500m is a first, and he became unbalanced in the Caulfield race, which suggests he's still learning.

Icy You has a lot of seconds in his record, with three from five starts, and he ran second in a Listed race at Geelong over 2200m last start. We rate him 6 at 7.4%, a fair price of $13.57, and the market has him at $13.00, which is close to fair. Visors go on first time and the blinkers come off, which is a significant change for a horse that's been close without winning.

Barrier 9 is a reasonable draw, and he'll settle behind the leaders, so he doesn't have the wide-gate problem. The question is the level. He's finished behind Murshidi's sort of rivals more than once, and he was injured earlier in his career, as the comments note. He's a solid chance for a place, and not much more on our numbers.

True Tone ran third in a Listed race at Geelong over 2200m last start, and he has a lot of gear changes, with the nose band off and a different bit on. That's a sign the stable is looking for something, and it may be nothing. We rate him 10 at 3.7%, a fair price of $26.88, against the market's $22.00. He's drawn 14 and will settle at the back. A genuine exotics chance and not much else.

Written Empire ran sixth in the Group 2 at Flemington last start, and he was keen in the run, which isn't ideal for a horse stepping up to 2500m. We rate him 13 at 1.7%, a fair price of $58.14, and the market has him at $50.00. The nose band goes on first time. The stable is in great form, but we need a lot to go right.

Russian Rock finished fourth in the Group 3 at Caulfield, and he was slowly away, which has happened more than once in his short career. We rate him 12 at 3.1%, a fair price of $32.15 against the market's $29.00. He's won one of his four starts, a maiden. A genuine exotics runner.

Cold Shower won a maiden at Geelong over 2270m, and ran sixth in the Listed race over 2200m last start, where the tactics were queried. We rate him 14 at 1.4%, a fair price of $69.44, and the market has him at $67.00. He is trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, and he's drawn to find the front. A big step up in class, though.

King Winston ran fifth in the Group 2 at Flemington last start, and he's still looking for his first win from four starts. We rate him 15 at 1.2%, a fair price of $84.75 against the market's $61.00, so he's overbet. He has plenty to prove.

Quick Finish has won three of his four starts, including a Group 3 over 2000m at Caulfield last start, and he carries 55kg, which is lighter than the others on the set-weights scale. That's a good record. We rate him 11 at 3.2%, a fair price of $31.55, and the market has him at $23.00, which is a touch short. He's an on-pace runner, which our numbers say hurts him, and 2500m is another first. Great record, wrong shape.

Meet The Prince has finished second twice in maidens at country tracks, most recently at Echuca over 2100m, and hasn't won a race. We rate him 16 at 0.5%, a fair price of $208.33 against the market's $201.00. He's drawn on the inside and will get a rail run, but a maiden winner has to step up massively here.

Locked In has run ninth, fourth, seventh and ninth in a short career, and has never been placed. We rate him 17 at 0.3%, a fair price of $294.12 against the market's $201.00. The Geelong run was in a Listed race over 2200m, and he was held up, so there's a small excuse, but the form is a long way off the pace.