2026 Empire Rose Stakes Preview: Punty's Runner-by-Runner, Odds & Model

Lady Shenandoah comes here off a Group 1 win at Caulfield over this distance, and it was a tight one, a short margin when held up near the 300m. That's a race that tells you she can win a tough finish without needing a perfect run. She has won two of her three starts at the mile and been second in the other, and six of her 13 starts on a good track have been wins.

The form line before that was a fourth in a Group 1 at 1400m and a fourth at Randwick on a soft surface, so the good-track question matters and the Good 4 rating is a plus. Jockey James McDonald has won this twice in the last ten years with Waller.

We make her 37.4%, a fair price of $2.68, against $2.66 in the market. That's a fair price on a mare who deserves to be the top chance, and the barrier 8 draw is workable for a midfield runner who can sit in the pack. The risk is a wet track and a race where the pace doesn't help her. She's the most likely winner, and the price gives no edge.

Idle Flyer gets the most helpful run of anyone in the race on our map, settling in the midfield with a likely honest pace. Her last run was a fifth in a Group 2 at 1400m, raced wide and bumped, and a wide barrier before that in a Group 1 mile ended in a poor placing.

She has won eight of her 20 starts, with five of 13 on a good track. We make her 7.6%, a fair price of $13.07. The market has her at $12.00, which is an edge of -8.2%, and the card is a no bet. The map is a plus. The price isn't. She's backing up in six days after a rough trip, and Mark Zahra is a capable rider who can take advantage of any pocket.

Surfin' Bird is the one the market is underrating. She won at Flemington last start in a Group 2 mile, and before that won at Caulfield in a Group 3 mile. Her record at the trip is four wins from four starts, and her record on a good track is five wins from eight.

The hard part is the map. She's drawn barrier 9, she has to work to get across to her preferred position, and our map says the shape hurts her. She's backing up in six days, which is quick, and this is a step up to Group 1 against open-company mares. Waterhouse and Bott are in strong form, and Blake Shinn takes over from last start's rider.

We make her 22.6%, a fair price of $4.42. The market's $5.60, an edge of +26.7%, and we call her value at $5.10 or better. She's the danger because she's the second most likely winner on our numbers, and not because she's a certainty. Don't confuse the two.

Cilacap won a Group 2 mile at Morphettville in April and has won three of four on soft ground, so the rain helps. She was fifth last start in a Group 2 at Flemington over 1400m, raced wide without cover from a wide barrier. We make her 1.9%, a fair price of $52.63, and she's $41.00 in the market. Jockey Michael Dee has been cold lately. She needs the track to go wet and a good run to be a factor.

Unleeshing has won her last two, a Benchmark 94 and a Group 3 at Randwick in a good fashion, taken back from a wide barrier in the second of those. She's rated third in our order, and 11.5% is our number against a market price of $9.60, with an edge of +10.6%.

The question is the step up. She's going from Group 3 to a Group 1, and she's carrying 57kg after winning at 54kg last start. The 3kg rise is partly the scale at work, but her record at lighter weights is better than at heavier ones. Barrier 10 asks her to either go back again or use energy to get across.

The tips card leaves her alone, and the reasons are the class step, the wide gate and the extra weight. She's a good mare and she deserves her place in our top three. Bjorn Baker has two runners here, Unleeshing and Pillow Fight.

Pondalowie has had 24 starts and won four, and none of her five at the distance has been a win. She did win a Group 2 at Flemington at long odds in September. Barrier 11 and a six-day back-up count against her, and she's $67.00 in the market against our fair price of $67.11. She ran sixth in a Group 2 mile last start.

Jenni Multabella has two wins and four seconds from eight starts, but all that was in Benchmark company, and this is a Group 1. She's been slow away or wide in several runs, which is a risk with a mile at Flemington. We make her 0.9%, fair $107.53, against $126.00 in the market. The edge reads as +17.2% because she's so far out, and an edge on a long shot with this little behind it means little. Declan Bates, who rode the last two winners for the stable, is aboard.

Salty Pearl has three wins, two seconds and seven thirds from 17 starts, so she's a reliable place type and a poor winning type. She has an inside draw, but she's rising 4.5kg from a light weight last start in a Group 1 where she ran sixth.

We make her 3.0%, fair $33.67, against a market price of $29.00. She's an exotics runner rather than a winner. Ciaron Maher has two runners, Salty Pearl and Jenni Multabella, and Ben Allen rides her.

Sass Appeal is the only leader and gets an uncontested run in front from barrier 5. She has won four of five at Flemington and five from nine overall, and was second in a Group 2 mile at Caulfield last time. Damian Lane rides.

Our map rates the shape as slightly helpful, but we only make her 2.7%, a fair price of $37.04, against a market of $20.00. That's an edge of -46.0%, which is the biggest negative in the race. The market is paying for the lead and the track record, but we think she's been over-bet. She can still run a place if the tempo is slow.

Concord Connie has had six starts and won three, but her best form is at 1400m or shorter, and this is a mile in Group 1 company. She was third last start in a Group 2 at Caulfield, slow away, settling at the back.

We make her 9.1%, a fair price of $10.94. The market's $6.60, an edge of -39.7%, and that gap is why we're not interested at the current price. The market is paying for her progress and she'd have to improve again to justify it.

The map is the other issue. With one genuine leader and an honest tempo, a back-marker has plenty to do. She can run into the money, but she has to be better than her price, and we don't think she is.

Pillow Fight ran second last start in the same Group 3 at Randwick that her stablemate Unleeshing won, beaten a short margin. She has one win from 11, with several seconds, and our map hurts her run most in this race. We make her 1.8%, fair $57.14, and the market has her at $41.00. William Pike rides, and she's a long way from this level.