2026 Coolmore Stud Stakes Preview: Punty's Runner-by-Runner, Odds & Model

The Next Episode has won 4 of 6 and the last three runs read 1, 1, 1, though two of those were barrier trials, so the real record is shorter than the form line looks. His last start was a Group 2 at Flemington over 1100m in the wet, won by 0.3 of a length with interference at the start and settling 10th of 11. That's a horse who won from last, and it's a good sign for a runner who has to come from barrier 14. Natural Fling was second in that race, so the form is directly relevant today.

There are questions. He has no run at 1200m in his listed form, so this is the longest trip he's tried. The stallion chain comes off for the first time, which is a gear change and a mild unknown. He has 1 start on a Good track and no win there, and showers may help. The wide draw matters too: he'll be a long way back and needs cover.

We make him 22.5% and fair at $4.44, ranked 1 of 14. The market's $4.00, so he's slightly short of our fair price, an edge of -9.9%. Most likely winner, yes. A lot of the value is already taken by the market.

Paradoxium won a Group 3 at Flemington over 1100m leading from barrier 3, and was fourth in the Group 2 at Rosehill last start, a run where he was keen. He has to cross from barrier 13 to get the front, which uses energy, and my map rates him as the leader most hurt by the shape. He's 3 from 7, 3 from 5 on a good track, and 0 from 2 on soft. We make him 4.5%, fair at $22.08, ranked 8, and the market has him at $19.00, an edge of -13.9%. A bit short for a horse fighting for a contested lead.

Alibaba was fourth in the Flemington Group 2 at long odds, and he's been through Group 1s at Caulfield and Randwick without troubling the judges. One win from 6, and the ratings say he needs everything. From barrier 11 he'll have to find cover. We make him 1.8%, fair at $56.82, ranked 12, against a market of $61.00. Our edge on paper is +7.4%, but it's a small chance at a big price.

Stretan Ruler won a Group 2 at Rosehill in February and was fourth in the Group 3 at Caulfield over 1200m last start. He was 11th in the Flemington Group 2 before that. My map rates his run as one of the best in the race, but that's the only box ticked, and we rate him last in the field. We make him 1.1%, fair at $94.34, ranked 14, with a market of $126.00. The edge of +33.6% looks big, but it's on a chance so small that it's more rounding than opinion.

St Gotthard has a good map. He sits on-pace from barrier 6, behind three horses that will fight for the lead, and my map rates his run as one of the best in the race. Two wins and two seconds from 4 starts, 3 at 1200m or further. His Group 1 second at Rosehill over 1400m came after being severely hampered near 800m, which is a legitimate excuse.

The flags: blinkers go on first time, which can sharpen a horse or make it too keen. His last run was a barrier trial where he finished fifth, which is nothing. And the market has picked him up. We make him 14.1%, fair at $7.10, ranked 3, against a market price of $4.80. That's an edge of -32.4%, the biggest negative in the field. Good horse, short price. We'd need $8.20 to get interested. Waller has 2 runners (No.5 and No.8), and James McDonald rides this one.

Marffiano won the Group 3 at Caulfield over 1200m last start, a head-bob after the plate came off at the barriers, and a win at big odds that shows he has some ability. He's 2 for 2 first-up but this is a quick back-up after 13 days. From barrier 3, he can find a spot. We make him 1.8%, a fair price of $55.87, ranked 11, with the market at $67.00. Needs a lot of luck to win a Group 1.

Under Focus has finished third in his last two, including a Group 1 at Rosehill over 1400m, though he laid in in the straight in both runs. Barrier 1 and a midfield map is workable if the leaders go hard. Blake Shinn takes the ride, and he comes off a 34-day break, the longest in the field. We make him 5.0%, fair at $20.08, ranked 7, with a market price of $20.00. Priced very close to fair. A place hand rather than a winner on my numbers.

Steel Will was beaten 1.3 lengths by Satono Glow in the Rosehill Group 2, after striking interference at the start and being keen, so the form has a line through today's danger. He's Waller's second runner (No.8, alongside No.5 St Gotthard). Barrier 10 and a midfield map is fine. We make him 2.4%, fair at $41.32, ranked 10, against a market of $41.00. Priced about right for an exotics runner.

Mbube has had just 3 starts, winning once and finishing second and third, and the third was in the Group 2 at Flemington, held up near the 400m. Unexposed, but he has to settle at the back and the strike rate for backmarkers rises only if the pace is hot. We make him 2.6%, a fair price of $38.02, ranked 9, with the market at $32.00. Exotics material.

The Machine Gun has won 2 from 3 and both on soft ground, but he was sixth in the Rosehill Group 2 last start after beginning awkwardly and being held up near the 250m. That's an excuse, but he's still a long way from the leaders. Barrier 2 helps. We make him 1.5%, fair at $67.11, ranked 13, with a market price of $61.00. Needs everything.

Doubt Time is our roughie. He was third in a Group 3 at Caulfield over 1200m last start, beaten 0.5 of a length, after being slowly away and settling 11th, and that's a good run with a hard-luck story. Before that he was fifth in the Group 2 at Flemington, again slowly away, so there's a pattern of giving away ground early. Blinkers go on first time, which might help him start better. We can't tell yet whether they'll make a difference, and 3 career starts isn't much to work from.

Barrier 12 and a back-marker's map is a real negative. He needs the pace to collapse, and with three leaders there's a decent chance of that. We make him 6.7%, fair at $14.97, ranked 6 of 14, against a market of $20.00, an edge of +33.6%. That's a big edge on a small chance. It's value, but he still loses most of the time.

Natural Fling went within 0.3 of a length of The Next Episode in the Group 2 at Flemington, from barrier 10, sitting second. He's a Group 3 winner as well, with 5 starts yielding 2 wins, 2 seconds and a third, and my numbers rate his speed as the best in the race. Four of his starts have been on soft ground, with 2 wins, so a damp track is a plus.

The problem is the lead. Paradoxium and Pembrey also want it, and my map rates all three leaders as hurt by the way the race shapes. If he gets a soft lead he's dangerous, but three horses chasing one lead usually means somebody pays for it late. He's lightly weighted at 55kg under the set weights.

We make him 9.1%, fair at $11.01, ranked 4, against a market of $9.80, an edge of -11.0%. The price is a bit short for a leader in a contested lead, and the Group 1 grade is a step up from what he's beaten.

Satono Glow is the danger, and he's the horse our numbers like most when you put the price next to the rating. Four wins from five starts, and two of those wins are Group level: a Group 3 at Flemington over 1100m from barrier 13 where he was slowly away, and a Group 2 at Rosehill over 1200m last start, winning by 1.3 lengths. That Rosehill win is the one that counts, since it's the same distance and he beat Steel Will, who runs today, and ran clear of Paradoxium and The Machine Gun.

He's drawn barrier 4, which is a real advantage over the other back-markers, though he still settles at the back, so he'll be relying on the leaders going hard. He carries 55kg, which in a set-weights race is just what the conditions give. Flemington has been kind: 2 starts, 2 wins. He's also 2 for 2 first-up and 2 for 2 second-up.

We make him 19.5%, fair at $5.12, ranked 2 of 14. The market's $5.70, an edge of +11.3%. It's a positive edge with a decent chance behind it, which is rarer than people think. Value and likely are different, and he's closer to the first.

Pembrey won a Group 2 at Randwick over 1200m, leading from barrier 9, and he's 2 from 5 at the distance. A sixth at Randwick last time was raced flat with a poor recovery, and a 14th in the Group 1 Golden Slipper over 1200m earlier shows the top level has found him out. Two wins from 2 first-up starts, 0 from 2 second-up. Another leader in a contested lead, which is a negative. We make him 7.4%, a fair price of $13.51, ranked 5 of 14, against $13.50 in the market. About right, no more.