For all of Punty's tips for Flemington, head to https://punty.ai/tips/flemington-2026-10-31

Rightio Ticket Munchers, Flemington is running a Good 4 with showers in the forecast and nine races on the card. The day has a clear shape: the speed is thin in some races and crowded in others, and the Big 3 leans on a couple of short-priced chalk horses that I'm happy to back, not because they're cheap but because they have the form to win. Grab a coffee, we've got work to do.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Flemington, 1100m to 2500m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (nil rainfall last 24 hours, 54.8mm last 7 days)
Weather: Showers, live gusts 16.7km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Race 1 is Moderate with two on the speed, Race 2 Genuine with Beautiful You alone on the lead, Race 3 Slow with nobody mapped to lead, Race 4 Genuine with Celsius Star alone, Race 5 Moderate with no mapped leader, Race 6 Hot with three on the speed, Race 7 Moderate, Race 8 Genuine with Sass Appeal alone, Race 9 Hot with four on the speed.
Jockeys to follow:
James Mc Donald: Nine rides today and he's on Lady Shenandoah in Race 8, the horse I'd bank on for the day. His J@trk record here reads 21.8% (1495/6859), so he knows the track.
Craig Williams: Nine rides, including Affari in Race 2, Hankee Alpha in Race 4 and Persian Spirit in Race 5. He's the bloke you want if you're chasing a price.
Damian Lane: Nine rides, and he's on Sass Appeal, the only horse mapped to lead in Race 8, so the pace call in that race runs through his saddle.
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (14 runners): The biggest stable on the card, with Unhinged in Race 1 and Lady Shenandoah in Race 8 as the two I'd be most keen on.
C Maher (13 runners): Icelady in Race 3 and Warnie in Race 5 are the two runners to follow, and the stable's T-HOT reading on the trainer line backs up the form.
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (10 runners): Regal Ambition in Race 2 is the standout, and the stable's T-HOT figure over the last 100 runners makes them a team worth watching all day.

Punty's take: Here's where the speed sits, and it's the whole story today. Race 1 has two on the lead in Mister Whiskers and Fast Freddie, and Fast Freddie is drawn out at barrier 11, so he'll have to fight for every metre. Race 2 is the one where Beautiful You gets the whole front to herself, and that's a plus for the closers if she doesn't get too far in front. Race 3 is a Slow Pace with nobody mapped to lead, which is the sort of race where a tactical jockey can win from the back, and that's why it's a bit of a lottery. Race 6 and Race 9 are the two Hot Pace races, with three and four on the speed respectively. Those are the races where the leaders cook each other and the back half gets rewarded, so the closers have a chance. Race 5 and Race 7 are the mid-paced races with the most open looks and no obvious leader, which makes them the chaos in the program.

Which races look like bankers? Race 8 is the closest thing to one: Lady Shenandoah is the market favourite at $2.66, the speed is contained, and the map shape helps her. Race 2 is also a good chance with Regal Ambition at $2.50. Race 4 and Race 9 are the chaos boxes, with a lot of runners and a lot of horses that could get home. Race 3 and Race 7 are the ones where a $10 outsider could bring the whole ticket home.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on Race 8 and Race 2, because those two are the cornerstone of the Big 3 multi, and Race 1 with Unhinged fits the same plan. The price on Lady Shenandoah is short, so don't expect a big return on that leg alone, but she's the anchor of the whole day. Protect your bankroll in the chaos races: Race 4, Race 5, Race 7 and Race 9 are wide-open, with a lot of runners that can win. Keep it tight in those, back the locked selections only, and let the roughies go on the sequence tickets.

Where's the value? The locked picks are the value on the card. Star Of Macedon in Race 1 and Bridal Waltz in Race 9 are the two horses I'd be keeping an eye on for the back half of the card. I'm not insuring at short prices on the favourites, so the place bets on the mid-prices carry the most weight in my head.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Lady Shenandoah (Race 8, No.1) — $2.66
Why She's the best horse on the card on form, she's won at Caulfield over 1600m last start, and the Genuine Pace with a lone leader plays right into her hands from midfield.

2 - Regal Ambition (Race 2, No.1) — $2.50
Why The shape works against him, but his Caulfield 1600m third last start and the Sandown-Hillside win over 1200m give him enough class to win this if the leader gets run down.

3 - Unhinged (Race 1, No.2) — $3.75
Why He won at Rosehill over 1400m last start and has been placed in each of his last three starts, so the form is in the right direction even with the Moderate Pace working against his midfield spot.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 24.94 = $249.40

Race 1 – Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes

Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper, but Mister Whiskers and Fast Freddie both want the front and it's a contested lead. Mister Whiskers is inside from barrier 1 and Fast Freddie has to work from barrier 11 to get there, so the lead is not guaranteed to be easy. That gives the midfield runners a sit behind the fight, and it's the one shape note working against Unhinged from barrier 2.
Punty read: Unhinged is the bet and I'm not shy about it. He's won his last two starts at Rosehill and Illawarra Grange, both on the good, and the 4th at Canterbury came off a held-up, bumped run. He's carrying 5kg more than last start, and the weight form says he's been best at similar weights, so it's not a big ask. The danger is Mister Whiskers, who gets winkers on first time today and has won both his starts on good, and Star Of Macedon, who has run into a 6th at Caulfield and then a 1st at Kilmore. Glenorchy from the back needs the leaders to fall in a heap.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Unhinged (No.2) — $3.75 / $1.57
Bet $13.00 Win, return $48.75
Prob 26.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.01x Steady since tip
Why He's the best-credentialed horse in the field on current form, and his recent runs show he can win from the midfield if the leaders get run down.
2. High Falls (No.3) — $5.70 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Star Of Macedon (No.7) — $6.40 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 1.06x Steady since tip
Why He's been running on at Flemington and the track record is solid, but his last start was a 6th at Caulfield, so he's the one I'd be wary of at the price.

Roughie: Glenorchy (No.6) — $14.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.05x Steady since tip
Why From barrier 8 in a Moderate Pace with two leaders burning each other off, he's a backmarker who needs the leaders to come back to him. His 2nd at Kembla Grange over 1300m last start is a useful line to keep in the back pocket.

Race 2 – TAB One Pool Vanity

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Beautiful You as the only mapped leader, so she gets the whole front to herself from barrier 6 unless someone comes to challenge. I Am Aria from barrier 11 and Affari from barrier 13 are the ones who'd have to go forward to pressure her. Pin Up Sheila sits handy from barrier 5 and she's the horse the shape helps most.
Punty read: Regal Ambition is the bet, and the shape is against him because he settles back from barrier 7. I'm backing the form anyway: a 3rd over 1600m at Caulfield last start, a 1st over 1440m at Caulfield before that and a 1st at Sandown-Hillside over 1200m. The Ben, Will & Jd Hayes stable has a T-HOT reading, and Michael Dee is riding him. The danger is Pin Up Sheila, who gets winkers on first time today, is 2kg lighter than last start and sits handy in a race that suits her. I Am Aria has been placed in two of his last three starts and is the one to watch on the speed.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Regal Ambition (No.1) — $2.50 / $1.25
Bet $13.00 Win, return $32.50
Prob 29.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why The best form in the race and the chalk for a reason, even if the Genuine Pace asks a bit more of him from the back.
2. Pin Up Sheila (No.4) — $5.10 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.7% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. I Am Aria (No.2) — $8.40 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 49.6% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why She's a pressure runner who can finish, with four placings from her last seven starts, and the Beautiful You front is a fair shot for her to get into the finish.

Roughie: Affari (No.3) — $11.00 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.37x Steady since tip
Why Back from barrier 13 with a 1st at Rosehill over 1200m last start, he's a closer who needs the front to fall apart. The Genuine Pace gives him a fair chance to run down a tiring leader.

Race 3 – HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes

Race type: Open, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with nobody mapped to lead. Icelady from barrier 6 and Fringilla from barrier 17 are the most likely to find the front, but Fringilla is drawn wide and has to work to get there. The back half of the field is loaded with runners who need cover, and the expected pace suits the back half, so the closers get the chance to win this one.
Punty read: Icelady is the bet, and the shape helps her because she sits handy from barrier 6 in a race where the front is open. She's won a Caulfield 1400m race at G3 and placed 2nd over 1600m at Caulfield last start, and the Maher stable is in form. De Armas is the one to watch from barrier 8 and he's been stymied by interference twice in his last starts. Your Colour is the horse coming from the back, and the Mc Donald booking gives him a real shot at the closing run.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Icelady (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.50
Bet $7.50 Win, return $22.50
Prob 23.7% | Place: 56.8% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why She's got a good record on good tracks and she's been the most consistent runner in this grade, with the Slow Pace playing well for a handy horse.
2. De Armas (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Your Colour (No.5) — $8.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 36.3% | Value: 1.18x Steady since tip
Why He's been slow to start in his last two runs, but he's drawn barrier 19 in a slow race where the back half gets the cover, and Mc Donald has him ready to run on.

Roughie: Fringilla (No.10) — $14.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.14x Steady since tip
Why He's on the speed from barrier 17, which means he has to be sent early and hope the Slow Pace lets him hold on. Get him to the first turn with a clear run and the sprint at the finish is the bonus.

Race 4 – G.H. Mumm Rising Fast Stakes

Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Celsius Star the only leader, drawn wide at barrier 18, and she has to work to cross. Napoleonic from barrier 5 sits handy and the shape helps him, while Hedged and the big-price outsiders drawn wide have a tough run. The pace suits the handy runners, so Napoleonic is the horse the speed map is built around.
Punty read: Napoleonic is the bet, and he gets blinkers on first time today. He won his Randwick 1050m race last start in the field and has three placings from his last seven starts. The shape helps him, so the Each Way is the play. Hankee Alpha is the one to watch, since the market has cut him from $6.00 to $4.50 and he won a 1200m race at Flemington by six lengths. Golden Straand is the horse I'd be keeping an eye on from midfield.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.50 pool)

1. Napoleonic (No.2) — $5.40 / $1.95
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P), collects $49.61 if it wins ($36.45 win + $13.16 place), $13.16 if it only places
Prob 15.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why The shape favours him, he's got a 1st at Randwick over 1050m and a 2nd at Randwick over 1200m, and the Each Way covers him either way.
2. Hankee Alpha (No.20) — $4.50 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.52x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Golden Straand (No.10) — $9.60 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why He's been in the money in his last three starts, including a 2nd at Doomben over 1200m, and the mid-field run through the straight is the right way to win this.

Roughie: King Zephyr (No.12) — $13.50 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 1.42x Steady since tip
Why He's from midfield from barrier 9 and was 4th at Flemington 1200m last start, so the trip is right for him. If the leaders go as fast as the map suggests, he's the one to swoop from behind.

Race 5 – The ABC Bullion Damien Oliver

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with no mapped leader, so the early speed is all hypothetical. Private Eye from barrier 9, Here To Shock from barrier 8 and Holymanz from barrier 7 are the ones who'd want the front, but none is a true leader. Warnie settles midfield from barrier 1 and the shape is against him, which is the one note I'd keep in mind before I'd back him.
Punty read: Warnie is the bet, and I'm backing him because his form is the best in the field and the market has cut him from $5.00 to lower. He ran 4th over 1600m at Caulfield last start and has a sectional fastest over 600m. The danger is Private Eye, who's been the 2nd at Caulfield over 1400m and has the most value on the card in his price band. Steparty has the closing speed, and the Maher/Hayes connections are a strong stable line.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Warnie (No.5) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet $10.00 Win, return $50.00
Prob 16.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why He's the best-credentialed runner in the field and his Caulfield 1600m 4th last start was a solid run in a strong race. The shape is against him, but his form is good enough to win it.
2. Private Eye (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Steparty (No.11) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why He's got the fastest 400m sectional in the field on his last start and a 2nd at Caulfield over 1400m last time, so he's a closer who could run down a tiring leader.

Roughie: Hughes (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.60x Steady since tip
Why From barrier 4 at the back, he's a stayer over this trip with a Dist record of 8 wins from 23 starts, and the 4kg drop in weight from last start helps him. If the midfield runners go to sleep, he's the one to swoop.

Race 6 – Coolmore Stud Stakes

Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot pace with three on the speed in Paradoxium from barrier 13, Natural Fling from barrier 8 and Pembrey from barrier 9. Paradoxium has to work from the wide draw to get there. That sets it up for the handy runners like Stretan Ruler and St Gotthard, who the shape helps most, and the back half has to hope the leaders blow up.
Punty read: The Next Episode is the bet, and I'm not losing sleep over the shape. He's back from barrier 14, but his Flemington 1100m win last start was by 0.3L and his class record is three wins from four starts. The gear change is the stallion chain coming off, which is a fair sign he's ready to race well. The danger is St Gotthard, who has blinkers on for the first time today and has run 2nd twice at Rosehill over 1400m and 1200m. Satono Glow is the other one to watch, with a 1st at Rosehill over 1200m last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. The Next Episode (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.65
Bet $15.00 Win, return $60.00
Prob 22.5% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why He's got the class edge over this field and he's the one to win if the Hot Pace gives the closers a chance. Wide draw, but he's shown he can win from there.
2. Satono Glow (No.13) — $5.70 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.11x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. St Gotthard (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why He's handy from barrier 6 in a Hot Pace, which is the best possible setup for him, and his Dist record of 2 wins from 3 starts is solid.

Roughie: Natural Fling (No.12) — $9.80 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why He's one of the three on the speed, so the path is he gets through clear while the other two cook each other. He won his last start at Caulfield over 1100m by 4L, and he's won both his first-up starts at 2 from 2.

Race 7 – Howden Victoria Derby

Race type: Open, 2500m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace over a staying trip with nobody mapped to lead. Skua, Cignetti and Quick Finish are the most likely to find the front, but none of them is a natural leader. The back half is crowded and drawn wide, so the closers from the outside have to be well-timed.
Punty read: Cormier is the bet, and I'm backing him with the Each Way. He ran 3rd over 2000m at Randwick last start and the Mott booking is a sound one. His T@trk record for trainer P Messara & L Gavranich is 28.2% at this track. The danger is Stormy Marco, who's 4th at Randwick over 2000m last start and drawn 15, and Murshidi, who's won a 2200m race at Geelong last start. True Rebel is the outsider who can run on from the back.

Top 3 + Roughie ($6.00 pool)

1. Cormier (No.1) — $5.70 / $1.90
Bet $6.00 Each Way ($3.00W + $3.00P), collects $22.80 if it wins ($17.10 win + $5.70 place), $5.70 if it only places
Prob 20.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.16x Steady since tip
Why He's the sharpest runner over the trip, his last start was 3rd at Randwick, and the Each Way protects him if the race is tactical.
2. Stormy Marco (No.2) — $5.40 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Murshidi (No.5) — $14.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 27.6% | Value: 1.26x Steady since tip
Why He won at Geelong over 2200m last start by 0.2L, the most recent form in the field, and he's drawn wide at barrier 17 which means he needs luck.

Roughie: True Rebel (No.3) — $9.40 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why He won at Flemington over 2040m last start and has a 1st at Geelong over 1525m, so the staying trip is right for him. From barrier 16 in a Moderate Pace he needs cover and a late run.

Race 8 – TAB Empire Rose Stakes

Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Sass Appeal the only leader, drawn barrier 5, and nobody else pressing him. Surfin' Bird from barrier 9 has to work to cross. Lady Shenandoah sits midfield from barrier 8, and the shape helps her because the expected pace suits the back half. Idle Flyer is the one who could run on from the back.
Punty read: Lady Shenandoah is the bet, and she's the anchor of my day. She won at Caulfield over 1600m last start by 0.2L, her Good record is 6 wins from 13, and she's got the fastest sectional time in the field. The danger is Surfin' Bird, who has won his last two starts at Flemington and Caulfield, so the form is excellent. Unleeshing is the one who's won two of his last three starts at Randwick.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Lady Shenandoah (No.1) — $2.66 / $1.25
Bet $13.00 Win, return $34.58
Prob 37.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why She's the best horse on the card, she's got the speed to keep up with the leader, and the Genuine Pace suits her from midfield.
2. Surfin' Bird (No.3) — $5.60 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.27x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Unleeshing (No.5) — $9.60 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 42.0% | Value: 1.10x Steady since tip
Why He's won his last two starts at Randwick over 1600m and his sectional times are rank 2 at 600m and 400m, so he's a live closer.

Roughie: Idle Flyer (No.2) — $12.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why He sits midfield from barrier 7 and the shape helps him, with the expected pace suiting the midfield runners. He was 5th at Randwick 1400m last start after being raced wide and bumped, so he's a horse with a hard-luck run in the book.

Race 9 – Asahi Super Dry Sprint

Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot pace with four on the speed: Naifah from barrier 4, Gentle Steel from barrier 16, Bridal Waltz from barrier 3 and Swift Force from barrier 8. Gentle Steel is drawn wide and has to work to cross. That sets it up for the closers who can get clear, and Flying For Fun from midfield is the one the shape suits.
Punty read: Bridal Waltz is the bet with the Each Way, and I'm not dodging the shape. He's been the lead runner in a crowded field, but he's 2 from 2 at Caulfield over 1200m and 1100m, and that's a sign of genuine ability. The danger is Flying For Fun, who has the best sectional speed in the field, and he's a closer who'll likely pick off the tired leaders. Inkaruna has the Place Value at the right price, and he's from midfield with a 3rd at Caulfield over 1100m last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Bridal Waltz (No.10) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $52.50 if it wins ($37.50 win + $15.00 place), $15.00 if it only places
Prob 22.9% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 1.15x Steady since tip
Why He's the best-credentialed leader on the card and the Each Way covers him if the Hot Pace takes its toll.
2. Flying For Fun (No.4) — $2.60 / $1.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.42x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Inkaruna (No.3) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.31x Steady since tip
Why He ran 3rd at Caulfield over 1100m last start and has a solid 2 wins from 14 starts, so the midfield run is a real chance.

Roughie: Geegees Mistruth (No.1) — $9.50 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why He's got blinkers off for the first time today with visors back on, and his 8th at Caulfield over 1100m last start was a slow-start excuse. From barrier 13 in a Hot Pace with four on the speed, he's a closer who could swoop if the leaders blow up.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R2-R5)

Smart: 1,4,2,3 / 1,3,5 / 2,20,12,10 / 5,11,2,10 (192 combos x $0.33854 = $65.00) -- 33.9% flexi
Punty's take: Race 3 is the tight leg with Icelady and two others, and Race 2 is the tight leg with Regal Ambition. Race 4 and Race 5 are wide and carry the risk. The flexi sits at 33.9%, which meets the floor, and the ticket is the one where a $10 or $20 winner in one of the open races makes it pay. It's a solid entertainment play, not a bank.

QUADDIE (R6-R9)

Smart: 1,13,5 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,3,5,10 / 10,4,1,3 (192 combos x $0.33854 = $65.00) -- 33.9% flexi
Punty's take: The Next Episode anchors Race 6 and Lady Shenandoah anchors Race 8 with a wider Race 7 and Race 9, so the open legs carry the payout. Race 7 and Race 9 are the risky ones. The flexi is 33.9%, which meets the floor, and it's a fair punt if you want a quaddie that could pay well on a $10 winner.

BIG 6 (R4-R9)

Smart: 2,20,12 / 5,11,2,10 / 1,13,5,12 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,3,5,10,2 / 10,4,1,3 (3840 combos x $0.001302 = $5.00) -- 0.13% flexi
Punty's take: Six legs with five of them open races makes this a lottery ticket, honestly flagged as entertainment only. The $5 outlay keeps it cheap, and the 0.13% flexi clears the 0.10% floor for the Big 6 ticket.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Winkers on first time, and a winning record on the good
Mister Whiskers gets winkers on first time today and has won both his starts on good ground. He's the leader in Race 1, so the gear change is worth watching early in the race.

2 - Blinkers off, visors back on
Geegees Mistruth has blinkers off for the first time and visors back on, after an 8th at Caulfield over 1100m last start that came with a slow-start excuse. He's a Race 9 roughie worth a look if the early pace collapses.

3 - Six lengths, then a price cut
Hankee Alpha won his Flemington 1200m run by six lengths on October 3, and the market has trimmed him from $6.00 to $4.50. The leaders in Race 4 will need to be run down to make him a winner, but he's the horse that kept the market talking all week.

THE CHAOS KITCHEN

Back the locked picks, keep the sequences small, and let the chaos races do the talking. If the Hot Pace races go the way the maps say, the closers will have their day, so keep your eyes on the back half all afternoon.