Saturday, 26 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: HANDICAP, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Lucky I Am is taking the first bite
Punty read: This is a five-furlong sprint in slow motion, Soft 5 means footing and timing matter, and at 1000m the leaders set the rules. Lucky I Am starts on the rail in a race that's expected to be genuine, so he can get into a rhythm. Anaballistic is the one I'm watching for stalking and quick clearances, and Who's Bent has that rough "held up but can still run" look if traffic clears. Storm Lord is the kind of outsider that needs the speed collapse, but if the track juices up late, stranger things happen.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Lucky I Am (No.2) — $2.85 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 30.0% | Place: 51.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why He's the leader type, right where Soft 5 rewards smooth action, and he's got the market backing to drag the others along.
2. Anaballistic (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.07x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Who's Bent (No.1) — $4.60 / $2.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 0.82x
Why Talented, but the last run excuses point to traffic luck being a factor, and in this setup I want clearer upside.
Roughie: Melody Fair (No.6) — $14.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 12.0% | Value: 0.70x
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Mr Mellon is the early man
Punty read: This is a "who controls the first 400m" race. On a Soft 5 at 1400, leaders need to get slick early or the whole thing turns into a survival scramble. Swift Ruler maps to get a strong position, and he has that clean, repeatable running style that suits races where the leaders don't blow the doors off. Roger is the value play type, Sarabi is the danger if she can step up and hold a ground-saving run. Treasured Legacy is the roughie type if the pace collapses and the back end gets to swoop like it's a heist movie.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Swift Ruler (No.1) — $3.10 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 28.5% | Place: 63.2% | Value: 1.10x
Why He's got the Soft form and the class profile to go past trouble, and barrier 4 means he can stay in the race.
2. Roger (No.5) — $4.40 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.05x
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Sarabi (No.9) — $6.50 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 41.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why Gear switch to visors makes her a live improver if she gets an economical run. Just not enough edge for me to stake it.
Roughie: Treasured Legacy (No.10) — $9.50 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 1.21x
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Late Arrival is the likely leader
Punty read: At 1200m on Soft, you're basically asking the field to sprint and then hold their nerve. So Si God has the right profile to get involved early, and Champagne Crusader is right behind that class line. Delzee is the one I like for the value lane, she can slot into the run and keep grinding without needing miracles. Late Arrival is a classic leader who can get swallowed if the speed gets sticky, but if he's allowed to go, he might steal the show like a bloke taking the last sausage at a barbecue.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. So Si God (No.8) — $2.65 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$24.75
Prob 27.3% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.92x
Why She's a practical runner who can keep momentum up, and Soft 5 usually rewards staying straight and finding.
2. Champagne Crusader (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.1% | Place: 59.5% | Value: 0.95x
Why A real chance — but at $1.45 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Delzee (No.9) — $6.50 / $2.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.41x
Why Value is there for sure, but this race type leans place leverage, and I'm keeping my stake on the lead.
Roughie: Artie's Storm (No.11) — $18.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.1% | Place: 21.0% | Value: 0.93x
Race type: HANDICAP, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, staying power required, and the race can turn into a grinding chess match
Punty read: This is where Soft 5 punishes the "too far back too soon" strategy. With slow tempo, the midfield can hang on and pick up lanes, but you want a horse that can respond when others get stuck in neutral. Miss Veuve is the market anchor and has the sort of late response you want at 2200m when the kick is more like a trudge. Chollima is the one who can get that stalk-and-survive rhythm. All Grunt and Olden are more for the "if it opens up" scenarios, where gaps appear and stamina does the rest.
Top 3 + Roughie ($5.50 pool)
1. Miss Veuve (No.3) — $3.10 / $1.52 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.55
Prob 21.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.82x
Why Slow 2200 on Soft suits a horse who can place herself and then roll late, especially when the market is confident.
2. Chollima (No.6) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 45.5% | Value: 1.20x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. All Grunt (No.2) — $6.00 / $2.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.90x
Why Could run on, but the value signal is shaky enough for the dollars.
Roughie: Olden (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.10x
Race type: HANDICAP, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarkers can still win but only if they time it right
Punty read: Slow 1600 on Soft is a "position matters" race. If you sit too far back you'll eat the ground, but if you're in the right spot early you can sprint through the gaps when the field compresses. Silent Diva is the clear tempo helper, she's got the natural ability to keep doing work without needing things to go perfectly. Arcadia Knight is the value type if she finds lanes late, Supernatural is the other who can improve with a clean run. Oly's Choice is more a "sneaky if it goes your way" runner.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Silent Diva (No.7) — $2.00 / $1.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$10.50
Prob 35.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why She maps to get into a rhythm and the Soft 5 footing won't stop her from doing the same thing again.
2. Arcadia Knight (No.1) — $5.00 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.7% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 1.36x
Why A real chance — but at $1.75 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Supernatural (No.6) — $6.00 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 45.0% | Value: 0.88x
Why She's live for a piece, just not enough certainty for win dollars today.
Roughie: Oly's Choice (No.2) — $9.00 / $2.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.87x
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Kelvinater is setting it up
Punty read: This final is about who can handle pressure without fading. Bosun is the one I trust to stay in the race, then answer when others start paying for their runs. Swift Talker can sit close, I Love Ya Money is the in-form "if it's on" type, but I'm wary of anyone who needs everything to collapse. Triple The Chant is the long shot who might pick up a run late if the race gets chaotic, which is exactly why she's worth a small glance but not my main cash.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Bosun (No.1) — $2.15 / $1.22 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 33.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why He's built for a genuine pace scenario, and Soft 5 at 1600 tends to reward the ones who keep working late.
2. Swift Talker (No.3) — $4.00 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. I Love Ya Money (No.7) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.2% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 1.27x
Why Market reads it, but I want more value for the dollars than today's best price.
Roughie: Triple The Chant (No.8) — $14.00 / $3.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 24.9% | Value: 0.94x
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, tighter run, and they'll bunch up before the home turn
Punty read: 1200m on Soft is basically a sprint where everybody pretends it's a distance race until the last 200m. Like Clockwork is the one who should be in the right zone. Kraken Time and Horcrux look like the exact sorts who can slide into trouble, then still run them down if the gaps appear. Swansee is the value sort if she finds clean air late, but the outside lanes can get tricky if the rain really arrives in force.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Like Clockwork (No.12) — $2.10 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.50
Prob 34.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why This is a right-up-the-track type race, and he can sit handy and keep going.
2. Kraken Time (No.7) — $6.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.04x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Horcrux (No.3) — $6.50 / $2.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.07x
Why She can run on and snatch a piece, but I'm not chasing the exacta dream for win money.
Roughie: Rolling Ruler (No.6) — $12.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.01x
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pace runners get the right chance to stick
Punty read: This is a race where the midpack can take a breath and then still finish strongly, which is why Streak Of God and Streamlined jump off the page as speed anchors. But the one I like for the bet is the each way option, Streak Of God is the reliable profile on the right tempo and he's proven he can carry his momentum. Vienna Calling is the roughie because that value is screaming, and if the race gets softened up and the market's done dancing, she can sneak into the finish like a pop-up party invite you actually end up enjoying.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Streak Of God (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$22.31
Prob 16.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.92x
Why He's got the pace to keep him in play and Soft 5 doesn't erase his ability to hit the line.
2. Streamlined (No.9) — $3.70 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.0% | Place: 55.2% | Value: 1.02x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Snow God (No.1) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.06x
Why Strong each way profile, but no extra need when the primary EW is doing the job.
Roughie: Vienna Calling (No.13) — $12.00 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.32x
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,4,1 / 1,5,9,10 / 8,1,9,11 / 3,6,2,10 (192 combos x $0.19 = $36.00) -- 19% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 7,1,6,2 / 1,3,7,8 / 12,3,7,6 / 9,3,1,13 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.00) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 8,1,9,11 / 3,6,2,10 / 7,1,6,2 / 1,3,7,8 / 12,3,7,6 / 9,3,1,13 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Swift Ruler (Race 2, No.1)✗ — $3.10
2 - Silent Diva (Race 5, No.7)✓ Won — $2.00
3 - Bosun (Race 6, No.1) — $2.15
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Belmont on a Soft 5 with the rail jammed out, shower pressure in the air, and 88 runners about to see who survives the mud and the mayhem.
This is one of those meetings where the early speed gets first dibs, but the track is soft enough that one wrong step and you're watching from the shadow of the highway. Think "Terminator moment" out front, everyone else is just trying to dodge the liquid. With the gusty, wet-risk conditions building, I'm leaning into horses that can either hold position early, or are the sort that can sprint late when the kick turns into a slog.
My spine today is simple, three names, three races, three chances to start stacking wins before lunch. After that, we go race-by-race and hunt value where the market's either overeager or asleep at the wheel, because that's where the dividends hide like Carols sing-alongs in the back row.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 5, 1000-2200m card
Rail: +3m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play speed-biased, hold-up sensitive)
Weather: Shower or two, 13°C, humidity 66%, wind 14km/h SE (watch for late rain spikes and gusts)
Early lane guess: Leaders and handy stalkers, but expect a few wide chaos runners to sneak into the minor money
Tempo profile: Several races look genuinely run, especially the sprints, with Soft 5 turning late runs into a legs-and-grit contest
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Holly Watson: gets the right gates and has a knack for finding the line when the track turns into treacle
Jefferson Tsang(a3/50kg): rides like he's got a map in his head, especially when the pace is genuine
William Pike: if he's on, you assume there's a reason, and he'll make it pay in the run home
Stables to respect:
T M Andrews (5 runners): can have them primed when the conditions suit, and today's Soft 5 is right in the pocket
Simon Miller (4 runners): tends to get them travelling and finishing, watch the mid-race moves
G C Ballantyne (4 runners): loves getting a slice of the pie with honest sorts, and in the wet-leaning setup that matters
Punty's take: Belmont on Soft 5 is a weird mix, you want speed but you also want "run on" horses who can keep working after the first 600 metres gets messy. The rail +3m Entire makes the outside a bit of a trap, so if a horse starts getting pushed widest, they'd better be legit runners, not just "looking pretty on paper". Early in the card, I'm backing the on-pace types who can hold a rhythm. Later, I'm happy to go place leverage where the pace and footing favour consistent finishers.
What I like most is how many races have clear tempo stories. In sprint races, the genuine pace means you can't just pick a closer and hope, you've got to see where they settle and how they'll get clear. If the race gets sticky, the market can panic and bump prices around, and that's when the "roughie path" appears, the sort that wins by sheer momentum when others are slowing down.
What it means for you: If you're trying to bet lightly and safe, you can anchor on the short-priced leads and take the place money when runners get held up. If you're feeling brave, the value roughie runners are there for a reason, Soft 5 punishes the ones that need everything to go their way.
I'd be aggressive in Races 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 with the win picks on the spine. Then in the later races, I'd save your risk for the lanes and keep it tight around the horses that can actually keep finding for longer than everyone else. Today's chaos isn't random, it's made by pace pressure and slippery footing.