Saturday, 26 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Benchmark 70, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Savitri is the speed lead and Naina is tracking the action.
Punty read: This is the kind of race where you can see the finish line halfway down the straight, because whoever gets a clean run through the lane in Soft 5 gets to keep momentum. Savitri's got the on-pace advantage, but I'm picking the other on to be the one that sticks closer to the leaders and doesn't pay the price for any bumping luck. Celestial Zara and Naina both look like they can run through the line, and that matters a heap when the rain has the track sucking at heels.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Naina (No.6) — $5.20 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 28.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.24x
Why She's been hitting the line through trouble before, and this soft 1500m map suits her to keep grinding.
2. Celestial Zara (No.4) — $4.00 / $1.85 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.22x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Savitri (No.2) — $4.75 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.74x
Why The leader profile is strong, but the value is already gone.
Roughie: Highly Intrigued (No.8) — $21.25 / $4.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.79x
Why If the pace collapses, she's got the run-on gear to swoop through the soaked ground.
Race type: Benchmark 70, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, but it can get messy early, Plunger sets tempo and they'll carry speed.
Punty read: 1200m on a soft track turns into a sprint where the leaders are either brilliant or cooked by the turn. Plunger looks like he controls the pace, and Spirit Of Wealth and Lawborough are the stalking types who can hit the line without needing the race to fall apart. Georgie Get Mad is the kind of horse that can outrun her odds if she drifts forward and keeps kicking.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Plunger (No.4) — $5.25 / $2.00 🏆 10TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 22.2% | Place: 53.9% | Value: 1.09x
Why He's the on-leader type, and on Soft 5 you want position and momentum, not hope.
2. Spirit Of Wealth (No.14) — $6.40 / $2.25 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Lawborough (No.7) — $7.65 / $2.65 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.26x
Why Draw is okay, and he's got enough punch to snag a slice when the race gets strung out.
Roughie: Georgie Get Mad (No.6) — $21.00 / $4.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.7% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why If she gets a soft trip near the speed, she can hang on past more popular runners.
Race type: Benchmark 84, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Piastri and Moby Dick help form a real tempo.
Punty read: This is the speed vs stamina showdown in disguise. The leaders are going to set it up, and that makes it harder for the pure backmarkers unless they're sitting on a punchline and the pace genuinely collapses. Recuperato looks like he's the one that can slot in, keep his balance on the wet, and pick off runners when they start swimming late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Recuperato (No.11) — $3.75 / $1.65 🏆 7TH
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 19.4% | Place: 50.4% | Value: 0.87x
Why He's built for soft conditions, and in a fast 1200, sitting closer is everything.
2. Naval Academy (No.10) — $6.70 / $2.20 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why A real chance — but at $2.20 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Space Rider (No.2) — $6.70 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 40.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why He's consistent, and on a day when the track's slick, consistency wins you the placings.
Roughie: Piastri (No.7) — $9.65 / $2.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why If the pace goes out of control, he's the type that can pick up quickly in soft ground.
Race type: Benchmark 84, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but it's a sprint race so pockets of speed matter.
Punty read: 1000m on Soft 5 is chaos bingo. Everyone looks like a contender until the straight starts and you realise who had the best run through the wet pocket. Tres Magnifique is the standout shape, and even though he's short-ish, he's the one who looks like he'll still be doing something at the line. Charcoals is your value angle if you want a runner who can find the right section of track late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Tres Magnifique (No.7) — $2.54 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 28.2% | Place: 59.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why Speed plus wet-track fitness. He's built to keep launching off the ground when others are grabbing.
2. Saluted (No.9) — $7.15 / $2.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Harry Got Styles (No.6) — $9.00 / $2.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.12x
Why He's got a place profile that fits a tight 1000 sprint, if he avoids traffic.
Roughie: Charcoals (No.4) — $12.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.47x
Why He's the value swing, tongue tie first time and the soft conditions can sharpen him up late.
Race type: Benchmark 84, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with enough speed to make it a real staying test.
Punty read: 2000m on Soft 5 is where the "middle distance" runners start separating from the dreamers. Itazura is the one I want because he looks like a horse that can sit patient and then pounce through the heavy patch. Federer is the class horse types love to back, but today feels like a day for the one with the better route-to-finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)
1. Itazura (No.10) — $6.45 / $2.40 🏆 6TH
Bet $6.50 Each Way ($3.25W + $3.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 17.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.30x
Why Fits the soft, fits the pace scenario, and the market looks like it's still letting him slip in.
2. Federer (No.7) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.91x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Ziryab (No.1) — $7.65 / $2.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.11x
Why He can run on, but Itazura looks the better balance today.
Roughie: Politely Dun (No.8) — $10.50 / $3.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 26.4% | Value: 0.90x
Why If the race turns into a staying grind, he's the one with the longer stride pattern to grab placings.
Race type: Open, 2400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, which means Leonchroi gets to save petrol for the sprint to the line.
Punty read: Slow 2400m at Mornington is where the "sit and strike" horses win. Leonchroi is the one that looks like he can bide his time and then hit a gear when everyone else is stuck in the muck. Go Daddy and Sunset Park are live for the same reason, but this race screams Leonchroi as the one who can actually deliver late instead of just hoping late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Leonchroi (No.10) — $2.48 / $1.32 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 30.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.85x
Why Slow pace suits back-end finishers who still have acceleration on a soft surface.
2. Go Daddy (No.7) — $9.40 / $2.80 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 35.3% | Value: 1.09x
Why A real chance — but at $2.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Sunset Park (No.5) — $9.15 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.04x
Why Can hit the line in soft conditions, but he needs everything to go right in the running.
Roughie: Hurry Curry (No.8) — $10.25 / $2.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.96x
Why If the race stays slow and the gap opens, he's got the finishing burst to show up.
Race type: Benchmark 78, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so positioning matters more than speed.
Punty read: Here's the trick, in slow 1200s the horses that can hold position and still sprint through the finish win. Concord Connie is the cleanest story, she's got the gate-to-line vibe and the soft track doesn't take her edge off. Hankee Alpha and Sun Setting are the main threats if the winner gets stuck in traffic, because on soft ground you lose seconds getting clear.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Concord Connie (No.3) — $1.83 / $1.14 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 42.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.88x
Why Slow tempo helps, and she looks like the one who can keep a rhythm and jump the others late.
2. Hankee Alpha (No.8) — $7.00 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 16.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why She's a live place and if luck goes her way, can sneak into the top end with a late run.
3. Sun Setting (No.11) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.20x
Why Big place potential, especially if the race turns into a sprint-for-space down the straight.
Roughie: Kippis (No.14) — $11.75 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 30.3% | Value: 0.89x
Why If the pace stays slow, he can use that gap closing late and sneak a win split.
Race type: Benchmark 84, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Veyepee's forward action is the whole story.
Punty read: This is one of those races where the favourite can make it look easy, if she jumps okay and doesn't get bogged early. Veyepee's the horse I want because her run style loves a true tempo and a soft finish. Mr Verse and Victorious Spirit are the backup plans for the trifecta types, and Castle On High is your value wink if the running rail favours a certain lane.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Veyepee (No.15) — $2.70 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$17.85
Prob 35.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.82x
Why She's the forward performer who still has a kick on soft ground, and that's the winning combo.
2. Mr Verse (No.10) — $7.50 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.13x
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Victorious Spirit (No.14) — $7.70 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 52.5% | Value: 1.07x
Why Place value looks solid, especially if the race compresses and she's got room late.
Roughie: Castle On High (No.13) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.37x
Why He's the roughie flavour, and on a heavy day midfielders can pop up when the straight is chaos.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,2,6 / 4,14,7,1,16 / 11,10,2,7 / 7,9,6,4 (240 combos x $0.21 = $50.00) -- 21% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,7,1 / 10,7,9,5,8 / 3,8,11,14 / 15,14,10,13 (240 combos x $0.15 = $35.00) -- 15% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,10,2 / 7,9,6,4 / 10,7,1,8 / 10,7,9,5,8 / 3,8,11,14 / 15,14,10,13 (3840 combos x $0.001302 = $5.00) -- 0.13% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Leonchroi (Race 6, No.10)✗ — $2.41
2 - Concord Connie (Race 7, No.3)✗ — $1.75
3 - Veyepee (Race 8, No.15)✓ Won — $1.91
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Mornington's under a Soft 5 blanket and the rain's doing its best impression of a Melbourne Cup drizzle, all while the rail stays true. It's one of those days where the smart money wants forward movement early, then the wet track pays the late runners who actually have the legs to slog through it. If you're waiting for the "perfect" bet, you'll end up watching someone else's ticket light up the tote, like it's a Marvel movie trailer.
My spine for the day is simple, three blokes that look like they'll be in the thick of it, then we pounce with the multi. Race 6 is where the staying types can get exposed, and I like Leonchroi for exactly that reason, but with Mornington you always respect the "one more run in the ground" horse. Race 7 is a proper little speed trap on paper with Concord Connie, while Race 8 is a straight-up case of Veyepee doing what favourites do when conditions suit them.
Below is the card, race by race, with the top end and a roughie for each. Some will be boring. Some will be spicy. All of them are chosen because the pace, the softness, and the market map to something you can actually use when the gates open.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Mornington, 1200m-2400m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Speed over Stamina, with late run bias)
Weather: Rain, 11°C (watch for the steady drizzle and the gusts, it's the sort that changes how horses finish)
Early lane guess: Races 1-4 favour getting some position early, the wet makes forward runs pay
Tempo profile: Moderate to hot in the sprint legs early, then it softens a bit in the staying races where the backmarkers can save something for the finish.
Jockeys to follow:
Jye McNeil: loves being in the right spot, and he gets lanes when others get stuck in traffic.
Ethan Brown: steady hands, often there for the right moment when the track is slick.
Jamie Mott: routes the runners well, and on soft tracks his timing matters.
Stables to respect:
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (3 runners): they squeeze wins out of races where others look like they're just getting warm-up laps.
C Maher (2 runners): when they bring one in under a wet-track profile, you can feel it in the way they map.
D T O'Brien (1 runners): sneaky in soft conditions, the sort that can hit the line with zero drama.
Punty's take:
Mornington on Soft 5 is basically a speed movie where everyone forgets the script halfway through. Early on, if you're not at least stalking, you're doing it the hard way, and the corners punish indecision. That's why I'm leaning into horses that can either lead or get handy without needing luck every stride.
Race 1 is a classic Mornington "who gets a clear crack" job at 1500m. Savitri is the pace name, but I'm more interested in the runner who looks like she'll be near the action and can switch off interference roulette when the track turns into a boggy shuffle.
Race 6 at 2400m is where the slow pace turns into a trap. Leonchroi is the value of confidence here, because when it's slow, the horse who can sit and then actually accelerate still wins, even if the ground is heavy. Then Race 7 is all about Concord Connie, short-priced but the kind of short-priced you take when the pace scenario lets them control the race.
What it means for you:
Bet aggressively where the pace is clean and the horse profile loves soft ground. That's why I'm backing the big three like they're your seatbelt before the wet race, then building around them with place-first thinking in the earlier sprints.
In the lanes, I'm going "tight where it's logical, wider where it's chaos", especially from R3 to R4. Quaddies can be a trap on later legs, but smart shape with the right runners is still fun and still playable. If you're chasing one big moment, Race 8 is the one to watch, Veyepee's the sort of favourite that can land early and then still find another gear on the line.
Now let's get stuck into it. You want winners? I'll give you winners. You want chaos? I've got chaos, and it's wearing a wet-track smile.