Saturday, 27 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Handicap, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Invicto and Neotropical should take it up, while Profumo and Aston can stalk the speed
Punty read: This is a proper opener for degenerates - the kind of race where half the field has a decent excuse and the other half is pretending to be a sprinter. Face The Wild has the money and the slick profile, but I'm not keen on taking short juice in a race where a couple of the honest ones can sit handy and get first crack. Profumo looks the right map horse with a gear tweak and a good enough engine, Aston is the honest grinder if they overdo it, and Mirador's the swooper who could be the last man standing if the speed collapses. Invicto is the roughie with a sneaky place angle if the race falls apart and he gets a cleaner jump than last time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Profumo (No.2) — $6.10 / $2.25 🏆 6TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 16.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.14x
Why He's got the right sort of profile for a Caulfield 1000m squirt - fresh enough, the new noseband can sharpen him up, and he maps to get the right tow into the race.
2. Aston (No.3) — $7.85 / $2.45 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.30x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Mirador (No.7) — $13.00 / $3.80 🏆 7TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 9.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.41x
Why Long spell, backmarker, and if the leaders cook each other he's the one swooping out of the smoke like Batman with a tab.
Roughie: Invicto (No.1) — $10.25 / $3.10 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.08x
Why He can run a cheeky race if the start behaves and the leaders don't get to loafing up front.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; a few go forward, but the wide draws mean the run home could get messy
Punty read: Next Step Iowa is the one the punters will latch onto, but the price is skinny enough to make your eyes water. Biancelli has the right sort of market punch and enough tactical speed to land in the finish if the pressure isn't silly, Takeko is the place horse I want if they overcook the early stages, and Vain Champagne is the one that could ping a place if the pace spreads the field out. This one has "someone gets trapped wide and someone gets bailed up" written all over it like a bad sequel.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Biancelli (No.5) — $7.95 / $2.40 🏆 12TH
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 14.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.40x
Why The market's poking her for a reason - she's racing in the right sort of form and has enough early dash to offset a sticky gate.
2. Next Step Iowa (No.12) — $2.76 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.46x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Takeko (No.4) — $9.30 / $2.70 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 11.4% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.25x
Why Tough enough mare who can sit on the map and keep grinding - the sort you want when the race shape gets ugly.
Roughie: Vain Champagne (No.10) — $10.75 / $3.30 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.38x
Why If the race turns into a bit of a scrap, she's got the sort of finish that can nick a placing when others are waving the white flag.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Written Glow can lead, with Race For Rule sitting the sweet stalking run
Punty read: This is a nicer race than it looks on paper, and the key is whether the leaders burn too much petrol trying to boss the thing. Race For Rule is the one I want - he's got the right map, the right rider, and the sort of turn of foot that can kill a race when the tempo's honest. Afterberna is the class act but he's short enough to make you feel like a mug if you dive in, while Custom keeps rattling home and is a tidy place play if they overdo the front end. Biologics is the roughie with the swooper shape, but the drier track question and the drift keep me from getting too brave.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Race For Rule (No.5) — $3.08 / $1.32 🏆 3RD
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — Cashed, net -$6.37
Prob 24.1% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.87x
Why He maps to land in the right spot behind the speed and gets the sort of run that wins races at this place.
2. Afterberna (No.2) — $4.55 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Custom (No.1) — $6.10 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.50
Prob 16.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.19x
Why Honest old unit, resumes with enough ability to be in the finish if he gets the right drag into the race.
Roughie: Biologics (No.3) — $10.50 / $2.45 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.27x
Why If they overplay the speed and he gets a clean cart into it, he's the swooper that can surprise a few.
Race type: Handicap, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; this could turn into a chess match and whoever gets the timing right will be king
Punty read: Staying races at Caulfield can be a pain in the arse when they crawl, because you end up needing a horse with tactical speed, a decent turn, and a rider who knows when to push the button. Savour The Dream is the one for me - the map is reasonable, the fitness is there, and he can do enough work late if they dawdle. Skippers Canyon is right in the mix too, but I'm happy to let him carry the pressure while I take the place line on Belle Savoir and keep Miracle Spin as the roughie that's got a sniff if the race gets muddled late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Savour The Dream (No.2) — $4.95 / $1.95 🏆 13TH
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 18.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.10x
Why He's the proven stayer in the right sort of race shape, and on a Soft 7 with a tempo that could turn ugly, that matters plenty.
2. Skippers Canyon (No.5) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.3% | Place: 38.6% | Value: 1.11x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Belle Savoir (No.14) — $20.00 / $5.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$27.00
Prob 4.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why Wide-ish and not a bomb, but if the race turns into a grinding affair she's the one who can hang around and snag the exotics.
Roughie: Miracle Spin (No.1) — $16.75 / $4.40 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.02x
Why He's a genuine old stager who can run a bold race if the front half of the field gets the tactics wrong.
Race type: Handicap, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Nellie Leylax has the tactical edge, but there should be enough pressure to make the last 400m matter
Punty read: This is a race where the old bruisers can get involved if the tempo is honest and the leaders do just enough work to soften themselves up. Gilded Water is the one the market has latched onto, and fair enough - the gear changes scream "we mean business" and the horse maps well enough. Smokin' Romans and Bankers Choice are the grinders I want around the fight, while Star Of India is the sneaky roughie lurking in the background if the race turns into a proper slog. Freedom Rally is the one who can run into it late if the map gets weird, but I'm not keen to smash him at the quote.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Gilded Water (No.4) — $3.67 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 16.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.67x
Why The gear changes are a massive hint and he's got the shape to sit handy and make his own luck.
2. Smokin' Romans (No.2) — $6.65 / $2.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Bankers Choice (No.1) — $8.05 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.12
Prob 11.5% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.05x
Why Tough old warhorse who keeps finding a way to be around the money, and that's the exact sort you want on a slow-building 2000m race.
Roughie: Freedom Rally (No.3) — $16.25 / $3.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.5% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.00x
Why If he can settle without getting mugged early, he's the sort that can clunk a place when the race turns into a war of attrition.
Race type: Handicap, 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot pace; there are half a dozen who want to burn early, and that usually means carnage
Punty read: This is the race where the first 300m could make or break the whole card. The front-end looks stacked, so the smart play is to look for the horse that can sit just off the carnage and still have a kick left when the jockeys start panicking. Mad About Magnus is the one I'm happiest to have on the radar, but the no-bet line says the price isn't giving us enough sauce. I'm Foxing is the one with the place ticket because he can sit handy, get the right trail, and nick a slice when the leaders have cooked themselves. Shining Smile is the roughie that could keep boxing on if the pressure somehow lets up, but the numbers say "watching brief" more than "mortgage the house".
Top 3 + Roughie ($30.00 pool)
1. Mad About Magnus (No.15) — $8.80 / $3.00 🏆 13TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.46x
Why Right horse, right race shape, but the setup wants a clean price and this line is already a bit too wise for my liking.
2. Farcited (No.4) — $8.85 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.19x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. I'm Foxing (No.9) — $19.00 / $5.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$69.00
Prob 4.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.07x
Why He maps to sit up in the first wave and if the burners overdo it, he's exactly the sort to come through the wreckage.
Roughie: Shining Smile (No.1) — $24.50 / $5.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.41x
Why Barrier 1 and a handy map can keep him in the hunt if the pressure knocks a few of the flashier ones off their pins.
Race type: Handicap, 1700m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Black Storm is likely to roll, with First Chorus able to sit in the right spot
Punty read: This one has enough speed to keep the race honest, which is exactly what you want when you've got a horse like First Chorus who can travel and finish. Black Storm is the likely pilot and if he gets loose enough it'll make life annoying for the backmarkers, but I still like the shape on First Chorus to get the right cart. Madiyya is the class mare who can finish over the top for a place, Mr Blunt is the live one at the right price but the bet says "not today", and Black Storm is the roughie that can hang on longer than the market expects if the map turns into a leader's picnic.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. First Chorus (No.7) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 6TH
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 17.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.16x
Why He's got the right run shape, the pace should be strong enough, and he looks the horse most likely to get first run on the closers.
2. Mr Blunt (No.14) — $7.50 / $2.50 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.39x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Madiyya (No.15) — $4.10 / $1.75 🏆 10TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 15.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.76x
Why She's the classy one in the race, but the price says take the safer path and let her do her work in the finish.
Roughie: Black Storm (No.1) — $25.00 / $6.00 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why If he gets an easy roll in front and the chasers get greedy, he could turn this into a front-running ambush.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Hot pace; plenty of speed on paper, and that usually means the late movers get their chance
Punty read: This is the race where the map looks like it's been thrown into a blender. Big Swinger is the favourite and fair enough, but he doesn't get the kindest setup if the burners really go at each other. Coeur Volante and Elouyou are the ones I'm most interested in because the pace should let them come late and rattle a few cages. El Rocko is the roughie if the chaos gets properly silly, and Just Folk could be the sneaky leader type to hang around for longer than people think if the pressure isn't as ferocious as expected.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.50 pool)
1. Big Swinger (No.7) — $2.37 / $1.32 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 15.8% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.45x
Why He's the class horse in the race, but he'll have to absorb plenty of heat and still finish the job.
2. Elouyou (No.13) — $9.50 / $2.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.60x
Why A real chance — but at $2.80 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Coeur Volante (No.2) — $10.50 / $2.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$17.10
Prob 11.4% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.44x
Why She's the one with the sweet spot between form, map and finish, and that's usually the lane you want in a race like this.
Roughie: El Rocko (No.5) — $12.75 / $3.70 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.76x
Why If the race turns into a proper burn-up, he's the one who can clunk into the finish while the better-fancied ones are gasping.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Winnasedge should be prominent and the others will be trying to get the right tow
Punty read: The last is a classic "the favourite looks good but the better angle might be somewhere else" race. Bazaball Rewarded is the one the market wants, but he's been smashed and I'd rather let someone else be the brave soul paying top dollar. Winnasedge gets the map and the gear tweak, Ka Ying Cheer is the best place play if the race shape gets a bit messy, and Steel Move is the roughie who can spring a place if the race turns tactical and the leaders don't run them off their feet. Landmark is the other one that can hang around, but the locked play says keep the wallet shut and stay disciplined.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Winnasedge (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$24.75
Prob 16.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.98x
Why He gets the soft map, the gear change is a nice touch, and he's the sort who can box on strongly if the pressure is honest.
2. Bazaball Rewarded (No.5) — $4.55 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.79x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Ka Ying Cheer (No.9) — $8.75 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 11.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.23x
Why He's got enough of a finish to sit in the frame if the on-pace brigade don't get it all their own way.
Roughie: Steel Move (No.7) — $11.25 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.22x
Why If the race gets run at the right tempo, he's the sort that can run past a few tired legs late.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,12,4,10 / 5,2,1,3 / 2,5,1,15 / 4,2,1,3 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,15,8,11 / 7,15,14,16 / 13,7,2,5 / 4,5,9,7 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2 / 4 / 15 / 7 / 7 / 4 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Race For Rule (Race 3, No.5)✗ — $3.08
2 - Savour The Dream (Race 4, No.2)✗ — $4.95
3 - First Chorus (Race 7, No.7)✗ — $5.50
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Caulfield's rocking a Soft 7 with the rail out 3m and a bit of tailwind down the straight, so it's not a mud bath but it's definitely not a Sunday stroll either. The pace maps are a mixed bag: a couple of sprints look like they'll turn into a proper speed chess match, while the middle-distance stuff is more tactical than a season finale of Succession.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Caulfield, 1000m to 2000m card
Rail: Out 3m Entire Circuit
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play fairish early, with leaders getting first use and swoopers getting their chance late)
Weather: Cloudy, 10°C, humidity 81%, light NE wind with a tailwind in the straight (watch for a late push from closers)
Early lane guess: On-pace runners and cleanly drawn midfielders look the nicest; the straight breeze gives the swoopers a sniff if the tempo gets hot
Tempo profile: Early sprints should be lively, the 1200m-2000m races are more tactical, and a few legs look set up for map-savvy rides rather than brute force
Jockeys to follow:
Jabez Johnstone - Light-weight kid on a stack of live rides, and a few of them map nicely enough to let him do the damage without needing divine intervention.
Jamie Mott - When Jamie lands on the right horse at Caulfield, he usually gives it a proper steer instead of a nightclub panic.
Harry Coffey - Keeps getting onto horses with a turn of foot or a good map; if the race shape is friendly, he's a danger all day.
Stables to respect:
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (11 runners) - They've got depth everywhere and plenty of horses with some sort of winning path.
C Maher (9 runners) - Honest team, lots of them have the right map or the right form line to make noise.
Gavin Bedggood (4 runners) - A few improving types and a couple of resumers that can bob up if the tempo suits.
Punty's take:
This card feels like one of those Caulfield meetings where the form guide is trying to sell you the obvious horse while the race shape quietly mugs the crowd in the car park. Soft 7, rail out 3m, and a breeze down the straight means the front-runners can still roll along, but they won't get a free lunch. If they go too hard early, the swoopers will be coming home like they've been shot out of a Marvel post-credit scene.
The early races are a proper minefield. Race 1 and Race 2 have that classic "everyone looks vaguely capable but nobody looks nailed on" vibe, while Race 6 is a hot-speed 1000m chaos job where the wrong barrier or a bad first 200m can wreck your day. The smarter play today is not trying to be a hero in every leg; it's picking your spots, leaning into horses with the right map, and taking place money when the win market is trying to bend you over with a smile.
What it means for you:
This is a meeting where you want to be a bit choosy, not a spray-and-pray lunatic. The best bets are the horses that can hold a spot, get a clean run, and keep building through the lane - especially in the sprint and middle-distance races where the map matters plenty. When a horse has market support, the right barrier, and a jockey who can make a decision without turning it into a hostage negotiation, that's where you want your money.
In the open races, I'm much happier to lean on place lines and each way than I am trying to belt the win button like I'm playing Street Fighter with no idea what the buttons do. The quaddie and big 6 are fun, but they're entertainment with a side of pain unless you're happy to throw a few shekels at the chaos and see what sticks. The real edge today is in being disciplined: back the map, respect the money, and don't get sucked into every shiny shorty like a magpie in spring.