Saturday, 27 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Midway (Bm72), 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace - Mafia controls it, Cold Brew and Presides get the right stalking run, while the backmarkers need a bit of luck and a bit of chaos.
Punty read: This is a proper 1300m sting where the speed map matters more than a racing postcard. Mafia has the engine, but he's drifted like a bloke leaving the pub after a bad first half, and Cold Brew has the sweet map plus the money behind him. Presides is the other one you want in the frame - light enough, handy enough, and likely to get every chance if the leaders soften each other up. Just In Time is the roughie if you want to dream, but from barrier 16 he needs the race to turn into Mad Max.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Cold Brew (No.2) — $5.15 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.50 Each Way ($7.75W + $7.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$42.62
Prob 15.3% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.99x
Why First-up run was a ripper and the rise to 1300m is right in his wheelhouse. The map is kind, the stable knows the time of day, and the market sniffing him out is no accident.
2. Mafia (No.1) — $7.20 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Presides (No.4) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 10TH
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 11.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.40x
Why The light weight and solid recent form keep him right in the mix, and he should get a sweet enough run just behind the speed. He's the sort who can pinch a placing if the leaders have a proper wrestle.
Roughie: Just In Time (No.3) — $10.25 / $3.30 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.13x
Why Fresh enough and the trials were okay, but from the car park he needs a genuine tempo collapse and a bit of luck in traffic. If the race melts down, he can swoop through like a sequel nobody saw coming.
Race type: TAB Highway Hcp (C3), 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Navy Buoy the clean on-pace shape and a few closers needing luck from the outside marbles.
Punty read: This is the sort of race where everyone brings a case and leaves with a receipt. Navy Buoy is the one with the map and the market respect, but the whole thing screams "don't overstay your welcome". Red Rags To Bulls is short enough to make you nervous, Saintly Sands has been steamed like a dim sim, and Giapponese is the value roughie if you're hunting a place rather than trying to win the lottery. The rest are just trying to find a seat on the bus.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Navy Buoy (No.2) — $11.25 / $3.50 🏆 15TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 9.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.34x
Why He maps to get every chance and the combo with the track/jockey setup is tasty, but at the price the model wants you to keep the powder dry. Live chance, just not a slot machine you have to play.
2. Portofino (No.6) — $6.55 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.16x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Red Rags To Bulls (No.7) — $3.75 / $1.62 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.73x
Why Good horse, but the market has already had a sniff and the price says you're paying up for a lot of certainty that doesn't exist. If he wins, fair enough - but you're not getting rich in the process.
Roughie: Giapponese (No.5) — $10.50 / $3.30 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 60.0% | Value: 1.22x
Why The fresh run was handy, the late splits said there was meat on the bone, and if he gets the right speed up front he can absolutely rattle home. One for the exotics rather than a straight-up marriage proposal.
Race type: Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines (Bm72), 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Benevac and Jarrito up on the speed and Stormland/Gorgeous wanting a good tempo to offset the pressure.
Punty read: This is where the race turns into a speed chess match. Benevac has enough tactical speed to land in the right spot, Jarrito is the classic "back me at your own risk" type after the drift, and Lady Invictus looks the one who can sit off them and get the last crack. Gorgeous is short enough to make the bookies grin, but the map isn't handing him the silver platter. Stormland is the one with the market money and the wet-ground credentials, yet the model says there are better lanes to stand in.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Benevac (No.3) — $5.30 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 14.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.98x
Why This bloke keeps showing up, keeps trying, and gets the kind of map that lets him park up and have a crack. The race shape suits him better than a lot of the others, and he's ready to win if the right horse turns up.
2. Jarrito (No.7) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.11x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Lady Invictus (No.11) — $6.55 / $2.30 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.35
Prob 14.9% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.21x
Why Nice fresh profile, soft-track friendly, and the sort of horse that can tuck in and be steaming late without needing the race to be a demolition derby. She's the cleanest place play in the race.
Roughie: Gilette (No.10) — $17.50 / $4.80 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.06x
Why The gear tweak is interesting, but he still needs things to go very right and a pile of luck to turn the screws. If the pace gets silly and the leaders fold, he's the sort who can be flying home into the minors.
Race type: Irresistible Pools And Spas (Bm72), 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Damien the only real pace horse getting the prime map edge.
Punty read: This is a weird little Melbourne Cup of a race over 1400 - not in stamina, but in frustration. Big Papa is the dominant force on paper and should get the comfy steer, while Tarzing is the one the market has already had a proper chew on. Damien is the sneaky map runner if they let him loaf, and Royal Flare is the value bit of filth if the race turns into a crawl and they sprint home from the half-mile. Cherish Me is a brave mare but she's taking on the boys and the price says she's there to run a race, not to donate money.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.50 pool)
1. Big Papa (No.5) — $2.59 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 28.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.92x
Why He has the class edge and the soft map to sit there like a king in a deck chair. If he's right, he's the one they all have to run past.
2. Tarzing (No.6) — $2.81 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.90x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Royal Flare (No.4) — $20.75 / $4.20 🏆 9TH
Bet $9.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 3.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.88x
Why The rise in trip should help and the race shape is exactly the sort of thing that can see him lob into the finish like a sneaky Marvel post-credit scene. Overs price, real place chance.
Roughie: Cherish Me (No.3) — $15.25 / $3.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.03x
Why Honest mare with a decent place profile, but she needs the race to unfold perfectly to topple the boys. Good for a slice, not a slab.
Race type: Find Your Eternal Warrior @ The Chase (Bm78), 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Miss Hades and Virgil's Gift advantaged on the speed and a few others needing the race to stretch.
Punty read: Surf's Up is the obvious name but the drift says the ocean has got a bit rough. This is one of those races where the sexy favourite can look the part and still get mugged by the better-priced grinders. Bella Corazon is one of those good wet-track mares who loves a scrap, Sequista has been backed like the stable texted the bagman, and Make It Sweet is another with a serious market whiff. Aye Aye Captain is the roughie with the right sort of shape if you want to pinch the exotics.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Surf's Up (No.1) — $3.20 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$15.53
Prob 16.3% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.66x
Why He's the class horse in the race and the profile says he'll be thereabouts, but the drift is a proper eyebrow-raiser. Good enough to include, not good enough to go silly on.
2. Bella Corazon (No.9) — $7.55 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.35x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sequista (No.10) — $7.75 / $2.60 🏆 5TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 11.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.13x
Why In the right lane again after strong support, and this is exactly the sort of race where a handy type can stalk and slide. Looks rock-solid for a place and a legit threat if the leaders go too hard.
Roughie: Aye Aye Captain (No.6) — $12.00 / $3.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why The map is kind and he's got enough tactical speed to sit in the first wave without burning the tyres. If the favourite gets crossed or cooked, this bloke is the one who can swoop into the frame like a bloke stealing chips at halftime.
Race type: Ranvet Stayers Cup (Bm90), 2400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Black Run likely to roll and a few backmarkers praying for a tempo collapse.
Punty read: This is where the card stops mucking about. King Pedro is the one the market has latched onto, but the staying setup opens the door for horses who can keep grinding when others start looking for an Uber. Black Run is the map horse, Casual Connection is the value play from a place perspective, and Sounds Unusual is the roughie who can ambush them if the tempo gets serious. This is a race for stayers, not sprinters in disguise.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. King Pedro (No.9) — $2.21 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$9.07
Prob 23.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.64x
Why He's the class act and the one with the cleanest staying profile, so if the race unfolds like a normal staying test he can simply outgrunt them. Short enough to feel sensible, not short enough to make you start singing.
2. Black Run (No.2) — $8.30 / $2.35 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.54x
Why A real chance — but at $2.35 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Casual Connection (No.8) — $19.75 / $4.20 🏆 5TH
Bet $9.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 5.1% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why The old boy is the sneaky one - if the genuine tempo bites, he can keep slogging while the flashy types are waving white flags. He doesn't need to win to make the day pay.
Roughie: Sounds Unusual (No.5) — $15.50 / $3.60 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.38x
Why Honest stayer with the right sort of profile for a grinding 2400m affair, and he's got the stamina edge if the race becomes attritional. One of those "don't ignore me if they go too hard" types.
Race type: Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm78), 1800m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Stylebender advantaged and the on-pacers needing to avoid doing each other in.
Punty read: This is a race where the map and the market are having a proper punch-on in the car park. Perfect Play and Hovland look the most comfortable in the setup, Congressman is the classy but short-priced type that can make you feel sick if he doesn't fire, and Boys Night Out is the sneaky roughie with enough wet-track and track form to be annoying. If this turns into a sit-sprint, the wrong horse gets burped out of the finish like a bad hangover.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Perfect Play (No.8) — $7.10 / $2.50 🏆 6TH
Bet $11.00 Each Way ($5.50W + $5.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Prob 11.2% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.01x
Why The market has already had a decent look, but he keeps finding the right line and should be ready to camp on the speed and fight. Nice horse for the setup, and the price still says there might be a bit of meat on the bone.
2. Hovland (No.9) — $6.90 / $2.50 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Congressman (No.15) — $4.50 / $1.80 🏆 7TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 14.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.83x
Why He's the obvious one in the market, but the price is proper skinny for a race that can get messy. Still the horse to beat, but you're paying for the privilege.
Roughie: Boys Night Out (No.1) — $10.50 / $3.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.25x
Why He can sit handy enough and the wet form isn't the issue - it's whether he can hold the extra trip under pressure. If the tempo's honest, he's the sort who can hang around longer than the market expects.
Race type: TAB W J McKell Cup, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with God's Window advantaged and the others trying to settle in before the real pressure starts.
Punty read: This is the race where the class horses strut around like they're in a Spielberg film. God's Window has the short quote, but the value sits with Golden Path and Know Thyself, who should get soft runs and finish off with the sort of persistence that wins these 2000m jobs. Tavros is the roughie who can make the frame if the race gets messy, while Maison Louis is the one that has enough ability to annoy everyone at a bigger price.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. God's Window (No.4) — $2.56 / $1.25 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 17.1% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.50x
Why Class horse, right sort of profile, and he's the one they all have to measure up to. Short enough to sting, but still the most likely winner if he gets the right cart into the race.
2. Golden Path (No.1) — $6.55 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 16.5% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.30x
Why The soft-track form is the big tick, and from a decent draw he can ride the race like a bloke with a map and a torch. Lovely place play and not without a winning chance if the favourite is slightly off.
3. Know Thyself (No.2) — $6.55 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 15.1% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.14x
Why The fresh run was the right sort of warning shot and this looks like his pet trip. He should be right in the thick of it when the whips are cracking and the lungs are on fire.
Roughie: Tavros (No.11) — $9.75 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.81x
Why If they overdo it early or the race gets strung out, he's the one who can come from the clouds and pinch a slice. Sneaky little value bagger if the tempo turns sour.
Race type: Schweppes (Bm78), 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Stardeel and First Landing disadvantaged if they let the tempo turn into a sit-and-sprint.
Punty read: Sanctified is the market's sweetheart, but the price has got skinny and the drift brigade behind him tells you there are plenty of moving parts. Stardeel looks the right bet from a value and map perspective, Exit Fee has a nice profile for the place, and Snack Bar is the roughie with enough market love and gear changes to be worth a look. Flying Trapeze is the lunatic fringe play - massive price, but if it gets wild and the race falls in a hole, that one can fill the frame like a late cameo in a Tarantino flick.
Top 3 + Roughie ($30.00 pool)
1. Stardeel (No.6) — $8.00 / $2.70 🏆 9TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 11.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.10x
Why The soft-track profile is solid, the recent win says the horse is right, and the price is still giving you a proper crack. The one you'd want in the exotics if you're playing the race seriously.
2. Couples Retreat (No.12) — $8.00 / $2.70 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Exit Fee (No.15) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 7TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.19x
Why Plenty of wet-track and distance clues say he's right in the game, and he should be charging late when others are flat-footed. Safe as houses for the placings.
Roughie: Snack Bar (No.10) — $11.75 / $3.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.31x
Why Gear goes on, market has had a dig, and if he gets the right lane he can absolutely make noise late. The roughie with a proper path to sneaking into the money.
Race type: Petaluma (Bm88), 1500m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with No Drama likely to take them along and a few others lining up to make it honest.
Punty read: The last is the sort of race that can blow up a sequence if you fall in love with the wrong shiny thing. Hollywood Hero is the value play with a decent stalking map, Spione looks the clean place bet after the gear change, and Seven's has had a serious public hammering. Elliptical is the roughie that can hit the line hard if they overcook it, but the market move tells you this one isn't for the faint-hearted. This is where you either finish like a king or get mugged by the form guide's final page.
Top 3 + Roughie ($30.00 pool)
1. Hollywood Hero (No.2) — $8.90 / $3.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$7.50
Prob 11.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.27x
Why Fitter second-up, decent map from a good draw, and the market isn't scaring anyone away. He looks the one who can sit just off the action and have the last crack.
2. Mawjood (No.9) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.05x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Spione (No.12) — $9.75 / $3.10 🏆 10TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 9.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.12x
Why Blinkers on, firming in the market, and the profile says he's ready to launch a proper late run. The best place play in the race and the one that can sting the wider multies if he lobbed.
Roughie: Elliptical (No.1) — $37.50 / $8.00 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.6% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.82x
Why Big old price, but the finish was encouraging and if the pace is hot he can absolutely thunder home into the frame. One for the brave degenerates only.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,3,7,1 / 5,6,4,3 / 1,9,10,6 / 9,2,5,8 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 9,15,8,1 / 2,1,4,11 / 6,15,12,10 / 2,9,12,14 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1 / 9 / 8 / 4 / 6 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Big Papa (Race 4, No.5)✗ — $2.59
2 - King Pedro (Race 6, No.9)✓ Won — $2.21
3 - God's Window (Race 8, No.4)✗ — $2.56
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Rosehill's serving up a Soft 6 with the rail out +6m and a proper southerly-style headache in the straight - not a graveyard, but definitely not a day for sitting back like you're watching cricket rain delays. The wind and showers make this a "get up on speed and stay there" sort of card, and if you're trying to launch from the tail like Batman after two espressos, you'd better have lungs like a whale and luck like a casino rat. Gamble Responsibly.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Rosehill, 1100m-2400m card
Rail: +6m Entire
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play on-pace friendly, with the best swoopers needing luck and a bit of tempo)
Weather: Showers, 11°C, humidity 89%, wind 20km/h W (watch for gusts and a sting out of the straight)
Early lane guess: low-to-mid draws with tactical speed are the sweet spot; the fence isn't poison, but getting buried back there is asking for a bad day
Tempo profile: a mixed bag, but the card leans on-pace overall - if you can control it, you're halfway home
Jockeys to follow:
Adam Hyeronimus, keeps landing in the right spot and gets plenty of live rides where map and class line up
Kerrin McEvoy, cold-steel operator; when the race gets messy, he's the bloke you want making the decisions
Tyler Schiller, sharp enough to exploit the right draw, and he pops up on a few of the sneaky value ones
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (7 runners), always dangerous when the maps fall their way, especially on testing ground
Annabel & Rob Archibald (6 runners), a proper live outfit here, with a mix of on-speed types and grinders
Bjorn Baker (6 runners), has the numbers and a few that are ready to lob at the right time
Punty's take: This is a Rosehill card that wants you to think like a bouncer at closing time: who's got the speed, who's got the stamina, and who's going to get shoved out the door late. The Soft 6 plus that 20km/h westerly means the leaders and stalkers get every chance to pinch their races, while the deep swoopers need the tempo to get hot enough to turn it into a proper leg-burner. That's why you'll see me leaning into horses that can settle close and keep rolling rather than the flashy backmarker that looks like a superhero on paper but turns into a traffic cone at the business end.
The market's been having a proper natter too - you've got a few steam trains, a few drifters, and the usual punters' poker game where every second runner looks like it might be the next Frankel until the gates open. Cold Brew, Stormland, Make It Sweet, Know Thyself and Seven's have all had money land, which tells you the ring is alive and kicking. But not every move is gospel; some of these are just getting chopped down because the public loves a story. The trick today is to separate the real smoke from the pub chat and side with the horses who actually map to get a clean run.
What it means for you: Use the speed map like a cheat code. Races 1, 5, 6, 8 and 10 have enough pattern to make a proper betting plan, while races 2, 4 and 7 are the sort of knife-fights that can ruin your lunch money if you go in swinging with both fists. Soft ground at Rosehill loves a horse that can handle a scrap and still quicken, so keep your eyes on the runners with proven wet-track form and tactical speed. If they're wide but on the pace, they can still win - if they're back and relying on one giant surge, you want a better price or you want a seat near the bar instead of on the ticket.
The other big angle is value versus hype. A few shorties look a bit skinny for what they're offering, and this meeting is not the day to keep forcing unders just because the tote's been kind to the favourite crowd. Back the horses that fit the map, fit the surface, and aren't being asked to do something stupid from barrier hell. If you want to play smarter than the average mug punter, default to place on the close ones, use each way where the profile says they can both hit and hurt, and don't be shy about leaving a race alone when the price is all smoke and mirrors.