Saturday, 27 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; a couple of on-pacers should control the early tempo, then it turns into a sprint home through the bog
Punty read: This is the sort of maiden where one horse gets a soft lead and the rest spend the race looking for a taxi. Girlzgirlzgirlz has the early position and the speed map says she'll be right in the firing line, but Pact from barrier 4 is the one the market has started punting like it knows the song before the chorus. Run Don't Walk is the safer little place play - fresh enough to pop up if they overdo it late - while Tassels needs to improve the start and carry the extra weight to be a real threat. Roughie Casa Rubick is the swooper's prayer: if they crawl and then stack up, it can run into the placings, but it needs a fair slice of luck like a bloke trying to get a parking spot at a Bunnings on Saturday morning.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Girlzgirlzgirlz (No.4) — $4.30 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $17.00 Each Way ($8.50W + $8.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$34.85
Prob 16.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.81x
Why on-pace profile suits a slow-run maiden on heavy ground, and if the draw doesn't bury her too deep she'll get every chance to pinch a break and keep rolling.
2. Pact (No.7) — $4.05 / $1.95 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.60x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Run Don't Walk (No.9) — $7.35 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 9.4% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.89x
Why fresh enough to run a cheeky place at a price, and with the tempo likely muddled rather than brutal, she can lob into the finish without needing to be superman.
Roughie: Casa Rubick (No.3) — $14.75 / $3.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.07x
Why pure backmarker hope - if the pace collapses and the others start climbing over each other, this one can come storming home like the last bloke out of a pub when the tab's been called.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Takeshi leads, Quondo sits close enough to pounce, and the rest have to be sensible or get burnt
Punty read: This is a proper map race. Takeshi is the one carving it up in front and the market has noticed, but Quondo is the horse with the cleanest story - the right gate, the right stalking spot and the class to turn the screws when the pressure rises. Reptak and Moneypenny are the next-best if the speed gets serious and the race turns into a staying test at sprint trips, while Takeshi is the roughie with the market lunge behind him. The race is only six runners and only two places pay, so this is no place for heroics - you want the right horse, not a bit of sentiment and a prayer candle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Quondo (No.5) — $1.87 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.05
Prob 37.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.90x
Why maps to sit right on the speed and the race shape screams "control the race, control the result" if the leader doesn't cook it too early.
2. Reptak (No.2) — $5.50 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.05x
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Moneypenny (No.4) — $5.90 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.14x
Why has the class and the heavy-track ability to run into it, but in a skinny six-runner affair the value is a touch too tight for extra insurance.
Roughie: Takeshi (No.1) — $10.20 / $3.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.76x
Why if the leader gets the right chop of the speed and pinches a breather mid-race, he's the one that can make them chase all the way to the fence.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Chasing Warrior controls it, and the on-pacers need to keep their heads while the backmarkers pray for a meltdown
Punty read: This one has a few moving parts but Opressor looks the sensible punter's horse - he can sit in the right spot and doesn't need the race to fall in a heap. Opaea Joe has the class, but he's up in the weights and the market is making you pay for the reputation. Jelly Roll is one of those runners that can tease you all day and then offer you the old "not today, mate" when the pressure's on, while Tonia's Dragon is the spicy roughie with the big place angle if the race turns into a slog. Ocean Road is the other one with a wet-track path if you were shopping for a bigger price, but the official spine is still Opressor and the inside-running types.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Opressor (No.3) — $3.70 / $1.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 17.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why maps to stalk the pace beautifully and has the wet form to keep finding when the others start paddling.
2. Opaea Joe (No.1) — $6.35 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.29x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Jelly Roll (No.2) — $5.90 / $2.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.20x
Why has enough ability to be involved, but he's the sort that can get into strife if the speed hardens and the lanes start closing up.
Roughie: Tonia's Dragon (No.7) — $9.35 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 1.24x
Why if the front half overdoes it, this bloke can launch late and make the place dividend look like a nice night out.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; they'll likely crawl early and then turn it into a mid-race sprint, which is exactly the sort of nonsense that ruins good intentions
Punty read: Open race, big field, heavy track - textbook headache. Sweet But Psycho and Alaskan are the class act types, but this is one of those races where the favourite can look beautiful in the yard and then get mugged when the real sprint starts. Allaces is the one with the place angle if the race gets messy, and Mo Charaid is the sort of each-way rank outsider you'd only want if you believe the crawl will turn into a proper old-fashioned grinder. This is where you keep your punting ego in the glovebox and just take the safer money if you have to play.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Sweet But Psycho (No.2) — $4.45 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.00 Each Way ($3.00W + $3.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$1.20
Prob 14.1% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.88x
Why class runner in a race where the tempo can turn tactical in a hurry, and if she settles without burning petrol she'll be right there when the whips go up.
2. Alaskan (No.5) — $4.45 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Allaces (No.6) — $7.90 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.12
Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.56x
Why the one that can keep grinding if the race becomes a war of attrition, and the price is juicy enough to sniff at in a race full of question marks.
Roughie: Mo Charaid (No.4) — $9.90 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.28x
Why if the slog goes full marathon and the leaders go too hard too early, this fella can be the last man standing.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; this is likely to be a sit-and-sprint affair where the front half gets first crack and the swoopers need the race to unfold kindly
Punty read: This is a proper staying puzzle, and the sort that can make a confident punter look like a mug in one straight. Whatthemansaw is the one with the form, the barrier and the heavy-track grunt to be a serious player, while Tenfoot Tall has the wet profile to jump out of the mud if things get honest late. Dance For Her has the good form line and the market isn't asleep on her, but the weight bump is a bit of a sting. Gallant Hero is the roughie with the right sort of map if they don't overcook the tempo, though he's the sort of old dog that has to be ridden perfectly or he'll wander around like he's lost the car keys.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)
1. Whatthemansaw (No.4) — $3.65 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Each Way ($3.25W + $3.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 23.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.20x
Why maps beautifully for a wet staying race and has the recent form to absorb a rough run if the sprint home gets messy.
2. Tenfoot Tall (No.7) — $4.45 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 60.0% | Value: 1.01x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dance For Her (No.5) — $4.40 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Prob 17.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why the one with enough class to be in the finish if the race is run to suit, especially if the tempo stays honest enough to suit a strong finish.
Roughie: Gallant Hero (No.1) — $10.10 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.42x
Why has the kind of old-school staying profile that can nick a place if the race turns into a crawl-and-sprint mess.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Churchillian and Electric Time set the tempo, with the chasers getting every chance to sit in the slipstream
Punty read: This is the feature and it looks like a proper knife fight. Tristar is the one I want on my side because the map is kind, the track is brutal, and she's the sort of horse who can sit quiet and then unleash when the others are flailing in the sludge. Churchillian has the leadership profile and enough honest form to make a race of it, but the drift tells you the confidence isn't bulletproof. Grande Gallo is a very live place play if you want one to keep kicking through the line, and the rest of the field is full of horses that can ruin your afternoon if you get too greedy. This is the sort of race where one ugly passage can turn a banker into a bonfire.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Tristar (No.4) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 15.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why gets a dream stalking run from barrier 2 and looks tailor-made for a Heavy 10 feature where the patient horse wins the war.
2. Churchillian (No.1) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.91x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Grande Gallo (No.2) — $7.30 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 12.5% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.34x
Why the kind of horse who can keep grinding when the others are gasping, and the price still gives you something to cheer about if he runs into the money.
Roughie: Miss Bo Peep (No.8) — $15.25 / $4.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.91x
Why if the tempo turns into a weird old tactical crawl and the leaders get cooked late, she can roll over the top and wreck a few multis.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; enough tempo to keep it genuine, but not enough to hand it to the swoopers on a silver platter
Punty read: This is the sort of race that gets people yelling at the TV like they're trying to influence the weather. Sexy And I Moet is the one I trust most because the profile says she can sit in the right spot and keep finding, while Principled is the place horse I want in the mix if the race gets a bit choppy. Rocking is the favourite, but the price is skinny enough that it looks like the bookies have parked a truck on him and started charging rent. Loch Katrine is the roughie if you want a fresh-ish type with a touch of upside, but this is still a race where the smart money keeps its head down and doesn't go swinging the bat like it's the last over in a backyard Twenty20.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Sexy And I Moet (No.12) — $3.85 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$0.70
Prob 17.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.83x
Why maps to get a fair enough run and has the sort of consistency you want when the race looks like a classic Tauranga mess.
2. Rocking (No.9) — $3.31 / $2.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.94x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Principled (No.1) — $7.30 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 12.2% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.40x
Why a solid place chance if the race turns tactical, and the heavy form plus the right map gives him a proper sniff.
Roughie: Loch Katrine (No.5) — $12.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.79x
Why if the pace doesn't get too silly and he gets a clean passage, he's the sort that can nick a drum and make the exotics less boring.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; a lot of these will be trying to avoid doing too much early and then hoping to sprint like they aren't half-buried in the mud
Punty read: This is a sneaky hard little closer. Da Ace and The Mailman are the obvious names, but both are short enough that you need to decide whether you're backers or spectators. Misstillymara is the place angle I like best because she's fit enough to find the line and the market isn't asking for silly money. Lady Charlton is the roughie if you want something from the inside draw to sneak into the frame, but a lot of this race depends on who can sit still, save petrol, and then not fall in a heap when the pressure comes on.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Da Ace (No.1) — $2.66 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $3.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$7.35
Prob 15.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.74x
Why the one with the best form shape and the most obvious profile to stalk and strike if the race unfolds cleanly.
2. The Mailman (No.3) — $2.51 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 15.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.77x
Why keeps rattling the door down and should be thereabouts again if he gets a sensible run from the draw.
3. Misstillymara (No.10) — $6.80 / $2.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $2.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.00
Prob 9.1% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.61x
Why the place play of the race - enough fitness and enough mud tolerance to be the one charging home when the fancy runners start waving the white flag.
Roughie: Lady Charlton (No.8) — $11.40 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.23x
Why from the inside she can save ground and maybe pinch a slice if the race turns into a procession of tired legs.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,7,9 / 5,2,4 / 3,2,1,7,5 / 2,5,6,4,10,11 (270 combos x $0.15 = $40.50) -- 15% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,5,7,1 / 4,2,1,8 / 12,9,1,8 / 1,3,10,8 (256 combos x $0.16 = $40.50) -- 16% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3 / 2 / 4 / 4 / 12 / 1 (1 combos x $32.00 = $32.00) -- 3200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Quondo (Race 2, No.5)✓ Won — $1.87
2 - Opressor (Race 3, No.3) — $3.70
3 - Tristar (Race 6, No.4)✗ — $5.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Tauranga is a Heavy 10 with the rail out 6m, so this is less a day at the races and more a mud wrestling comp with silks. The horses that can land handy, relax, and keep rolling through the sludge are the ones who'll survive; the ones that need a perfect tow and a dry deck will be doing it the hard way like extras in Mad Max.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Tauranga, 1200m to 2100m card
Rail: Out 6m
Official going: Heavy 10 (expected to play like a proper test of balance, stamina and track craft)
Weather: Fine (watch for surface chop, dead patches and the rail strip getting chewed up)
Early lane guess: middle lanes with momentum; don't get buried back on the fence if the track starts cutting up
Tempo profile: a few leader-driven races, but the big features look tactical - position and wet-track rhythm will matter more than raw speed
Jockeys to follow:
Jasmine Fawcett - landing on live rides across the card and gets the sort of maps that can save a stack of ground in the wet
Sam McNab - as handy as a pocket knife in heavy-track sprints; knows how to nurse a horse through a grind
Jack Taplin - plenty of useful on-pace and stalking rides, especially where a clean sit is half the battle
Stables to respect:
L O'sullivan & A Scott (11 runners) - lots of depth, a couple of genuine wet-track types, and several runners mapped into the right kind of race shape
A W Pike (3 runners) - fit, honest stock with enough wet-track chops to matter when the pressure goes on
G K Opie (3 runners) - sneaky with a couple of hardy types; if one lands the right map, they'll be right in the money
Punty's take:
This meeting has "one bad run and you're cactus" written all over it. Heavy 10 at Tauranga usually punishes the glam runners and rewards the ones who can keep a rhythm - not the ones trying to do a highlight reel impression on a wet oval. The rail out 6m means there'll be a touch of fresh ground inside early, but by the time the day wears on, the horses with balance, wet form and a bit of ticker are going to look like they've got the cheat codes.
Race 2 is the clearest tactical heat on the card: Quondo has the map, the class and the right sort of speed to make them chase, but the price is skinny enough to make you gulp your beer. Race 6 is the feature where the brawlers come out - Tristar, Churchillian and Grande Gallo are the sort who can make or break a quaddie in one ugly swoop. Race 4 and Race 7 are the proper shark tanks; if you go in too skinny there, the meeting will skin you alive and use your wallet for fishing bait.
The other thing today is the market noise. Some runners are getting hammered for a reason - Pact, Takeshi and Tonia's Dragon are all being made to earn every inch - while a few others are drifting like a shopping trolley in a creek. On a day like this, don't get seduced by shiny shorties if the map's wrong. Let the race shape do the talking and keep your eyes on who can actually travel in the mud without getting bailed up.
What it means for you:
This is a place-first kind of card. Win betting is fine when the map and conditions line up, but the heavy track means a lot of runners will look good until the real work starts at the 400m. If you're building a day around one or two anchors, keep it honest: Quondo in Race 2, Opressor in Race 3 and Tristar in Race 6 are the spine. The rest is about surviving the chaos without trying to solve every riddle like you're Sherlock Holmes after four beers.
Be a bit ruthless with your money today. The maidens and the feature races are where the good punters will get paid, but only if you respect the wet-track patterns and don't fall in love with a favourite just because the market's given it a nice haircut. Where the price is skinny and the race is messy, lean to place or each-way. Where the map is clean and the horse has the heavy form, get on and enjoy the ride.