Saturday, 27 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate speed with Propaganda and Rhetoric rolling forward; handy runners are favoured and the backmarkers need the race to fall apart
Punty read: This is a race where the map matters more than the poetry. Propaganda and Sword Of Legacy should be right in the action, but the real nugget is whether Grinzinger Champ can keep the momentum rolling from that market push. La Bella Boom is the one that interests me for the right reasons - blinkers first time, the soft ground suits, and if the speed isn't murderous she'll be chiming in late like a bloke who finally found the right room at a party. Secret Sort has the right alley but wants a bit of forgiveness after a couple of messy runs, while Excenia has been smashed in betting and is the obvious "something's up" horse.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Propaganda (No.11) — $2.67 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $11.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 25.1% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.78x
Why The horse is right there on class and map, and if the speed isn't too savage he can control it from the front half and make them chase.
2. Sword Of Legacy (No.2) — $2.81 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.59x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Grinzinger Champ (No.10) — $6.95 / $1.85 🏆 4TH
Bet $8.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 17.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.45x
Why Big market shove says the stable means business, and from midfield he can be the one who's still charging when the leaders start breathing through their ears.
Roughie: La Bella Boom (No.6) — $14.50 / $3.10 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.76x
Why Blinkers first time, soft ground, and a map that gives her every chance to lob into the finish if the front end doesn't go silly.
Race type: Benchmark 85, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot speed with Town Crier, Now Is The Hour and Zoufani all looking to roll forward; the leaders are under siege, but handy runners still get the first crack
Punty read: Here's your proper brawl. Some of these are resuming, some are drifting, some are being punted like they've got the last seat on the ferry to Straddie. Now Is The Hour and Istolea Merc are right in the mix, but the punting story is Town Crier - he keeps getting squeezed in the market, yet the horse still has the right make-up for this type of race. Bossed Up is the sneaky one if you want a bit of upside late, while Navyonthehighway is the old rogue who'll be steaming home if the speed melts. Scheherazade is short enough to have to deliver, but this is a wicked little 1200m scrap and I wouldn't be treating it like a picnic.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Now Is The Hour (No.11) — $7.80 / $2.70 🏆 7TH
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 13.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.33x
Why Maps to get the perfect sit behind the speed and the stable knows how to have one peaking at the right time.
2. Istolea Merc (No.13) — $6.35 / $2.35 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.09x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Town Crier (No.5) — $9.35 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$13.65
Prob 10.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.30x
Why Market's cooled, but the horse has the engine and the map to bounce back if he gets the right run just off the speed.
Roughie: Bossed Up (No.9) — $10.75 / $3.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.20x
Why If the leaders go too hard, this bloke is the one who can start picking them up late while everyone else is gasping.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Hot speed with Hard To Exceed, Tannin and Remembrall likely to take it up; the leaders will be working, so the race may suit the horse with the best turn of foot off the right run
Punty read: This is a proper feature race where the map is a savage little bastard. Tannin's the one they clearly want, and the market has followed the money, but Marffiano is the horse I want in the frame after that drift - he can be the one steaming home if the speed cooks the front end. Cool Gent is another one that can lob late if the leaders overcook it, and The Machine Gun is the baby with upside if he just handles the step up in class without blinking. Pearl Of Dubai is the old sneaky place chance - not flashy, but the sort who'll find the line if the race gets ripped apart.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. Tannin (No.6) — $4.20 / $1.75 🏆 10TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 14.9% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.79x
Why Looks the right type for the race and the track, and if he gets a clean sit he can simply out-tough them when it gets serious.
2. Marffiano (No.1) — $7.80 / $2.45 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.34x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Cool Gent (No.2) — $9.05 / $2.80 🏆 9TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 13.6% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.55x
Why No drama from the back, he'll sit quiet and come into it late if the speed turns into a bunfight.
Roughie: The Machine Gun (No.3) — $13.25 / $3.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.49x
Why He'll be fitter, has the upside, and if the big dogs get scrappy he can sneak into the placings like a bloke who arrived late and still got the good seat.
Race type: Special Condition, 1200m
Map & tempo: Serious heat up front with Revolt, Sunnycoast, Peshwa, Entrepreneurial, Este Dia and Smackeroony all capable of pushing on; this is one where the map will sort the men from the boys
Punty read: This is the bush final and it looks like someone spilled Red Bull on the speed map. Revolt keeps knocking them over at home and has the winning habit, Sunnycoast is the class type who can keep rolling if she gets cover, and Odegaard is the short-price horse who should get a run but isn't exactly screaming value. The play for me is to respect the leaders but not get trapped into thinking the favourite is a gift. Red Hot Lizzie is the roughie with legs - if the front end turns into a demolition derby, she'll be the one charging through the wreckage. Smackeroony is a live place player if the race gets frantic and they overdo it early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Revolt (No.2) — $4.35 / $1.85 🏆 11TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 14.1% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.81x
Why The bloke's in form, loves rolling forward, and if he gets to dictate terms he'll take a power of running down.
2. Sunnycoast (No.3) — $7.60 / $2.75 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.42x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Odegaard (No.8) — $3.75 / $1.67 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.70x
Why Market says elite, map says maybe not so fast - needs everything to go right from out there.
Roughie: Red Hot Lizzie (No.11) — $10.75 / $3.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.31x
Why If the speed boys go hammer and tongs, she's the one who can clunk into the frame late with the right tow.
Race type: Open, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate speed with Hyperbolic and Zuleika controlling things up front; the grind will favour the horse who can travel, relax and keep finding the line
Punty read: Proper staying test here. Pinito and Hyperbolic are the class anchors, but I love the set-up for a horse like Sun Worshipper who can roll off the pace and keep coming when the pressure builds. Bestower has been smashed in betting and is the roughie worth a long look - the horse is the exact type that can blow a race apart if the leaders go too soft early and then get stingy late. Walsh Bay and Geemes are the "don't forget me" types: not screaming winners on first glance, but both have enough gears to matter if the race turns into a slog.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Pinito (No.1) — $3.52 / $1.37 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 23.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.02x
Why The map is kind, the trip suits, and this is the one they all have to run down if he gets the right rhythm in front.
2. Hyperbolic (No.3) — $3.60 / $1.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.04x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sun Worshipper (No.4) — $7.90 / $2.35 🏆 2ND
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.95
Prob 12.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why Backmarker with the right kind of finish for a race where the leaders can get a bit sloppy with the pace.
Roughie: Walsh Bay (No.2) — $12.50 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.09x
Why Needs to lift, but if they overcook the first mile and a half he's the sort who can be rattling home when the others are on the rivet.
Race type: Open, 2400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Future History and Prince Levi controlling the pace; Asterix and Pounding get the ideal run and the whole thing looks set for the best class horse to do the job
Punty read: This is the cleanest banker on the card and I wouldn't be mucking around. Asterix has the race shape, the class, and the right kind of profile for 2400m at Eagle Farm on soft ground - he's the bloke who can sit in the first wave and still put the race to bed. Future History is the obvious danger because he maps to get a lovely time of it, but the trainer strike on the day isn't exactly glowing, so I'm happy to trust the horse more than the romance. Pounding is the other one in the frame but he's got to prove he can be as effective under this setup as he is on paper. Fawkner Park is the sneaky one to run into the placings if they go steady and it turns into a lane-wrestle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Asterix (No.1) — $3.38 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$46.50
Prob 30.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why Perfect map, right trip, and the stable knows this is the horse to trust if they're serious about winning the race.
2. Future History (No.2) — $2.83 / $1.45 🏆 6TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 30.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why Set to get every favour from the run, but this is more a "can he out-tough the top pick?" question than a great betting proposition.
3. Pounding (No.5) — $3.15 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.69x
Why Respectable enough, but not the one I want as the face of the bet in this setup.
Roughie: Fawkner Park (No.3) — $9.35 / $3.60 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.19x
Why Gets back in trip and can be the one doing the late work if the front pair don't turn it into a sprint home.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with War Eternal and Kronenbourg going forward; the race is full of live chances, but the one sitting on the best tactical map should get every chance
Punty read: This is a lovely punting race because it looks fair on paper but still has a few traps. War Eternal is the obvious class horse, Sun God is the short one who'll have plenty of believers, and Warby is the rougher little bastard with a strong second-up profile and a market that says "don't ignore me." But the one I keep coming back to is Rising Pacific - the market has steamed him like a bathhouse and the setup says he can absolutely figure if he gets clear air. Depth Of Character is the backmarker who can ping late if the tempo is honest, while Kronenbourg is the old smoky who could make a mess of the whole thing if the favourite doesn't get the right trip.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. War Eternal (No.1) — $3.67 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — Cashed, net -$4.09
Prob 23.1% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.07x
Why Loves this sort of race, gets the right map, and if he rolls up and settles he's the one they all have to beat.
2. Sun God (No.2) — $2.15 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.45x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Depth Of Character (No.3) — $13.75 / $3.40 🏆 8TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 9.5% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.66x
Why Gets the run to suit if the front end isn't sleeping, and the back-to-mile angle can wake him right up.
Roughie: Rising Pacific (No.6) — $14.00 / $3.40 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.69x
Why The market's treated him like a serious one for good reason - if he gets the softish run, he can absolutely stick his nose in the finish.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Hot pace with Tuileries, Midnight In Tokyo, Poster Girl and Blindedbythelight all rolling forward; this is the sort of race where a good ride matters as much as the mare herself
Punty read: This is a proper filly and mare knife fight. Manaal gets the nod because she looks the best mix of class, map and upside, and the market hasn't lost the plot on her either. Within The Law is the value play and the one I want on side because the blinkers first time can sharpen her up and the race should be run to suit a horse that can settle and finish. Splash Back has the finishing power but the place numbers aren't screaming value, so I'm happy to watch rather than get carried away. Poster Girl is the roughie with a place chance if the speed goes feral and she gets the right suck run, while Gerringong and Super Smink are the other wide-runners that'll be needing the race to split like the grand finale of Game of Thrones.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Manaal (No.3) — $5.65 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 15.5% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why Right shape, right map, and she gets the kind of run where class can do the talking.
2. Within The Law (No.17) — $7.95 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.41x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Splash Back (No.1) — $6.75 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 0.97x
Why Genuine runner, but the track pattern and the market say she's a touch under the right price.
Roughie: Poster Girl (No.13) — $24.50 / $6.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why If the leaders go like a cut snake, she'll be the one clunking into the frame from the back half.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate speed with Hidden Wealth and Givemethebeatboys likely to push forward; the map gives the on-pace types every chance, but the back-to-midfield horses can still pinch a slice if the pace gets honest
Punty read: Great final race to finish on because it's got the lot - favs being backed, a few drifters, and enough speed on paper to make it interesting without turning into a complete lottery. Yellow Brick is the one the money has latched onto and you can see why: gear change, barrier, and a map that should put him close enough to pounce. Oak Hill is the other one I want to respect even though he's eased a bit - the horse can absolutely win if he gets the right run from midfield. Hidden Wealth is the value anchor and the one I'd rather have in my quaddie than the bigger drifters. Niance and Barber are the playmakers if the race opens up late, and Givemethebeatboys is the sort of horse that can make a liar out of the market if the new gear sharpens him up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Yellow Brick (No.2) — $6.35 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $18.00 Each Way ($9.00W + $9.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$77.40
Prob 13.3% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.08x
Why Backed right in, gets the map to be prominent, and the gear tweak says the yard wants him switched on.
2. Oak Hill (No.6) — $7.35 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.25x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Hidden Wealth (No.3) — $8.70 / $3.00 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 10.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.20x
Why Good map, good form, and he can sit there like a bloke waiting for the bartender to turn around.
Roughie: Niance (No.9) — $10.75 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.20x
Why First-time blinkers and a handy map make him the kind of late-swooping pest that can ruin a favourite's day.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,13,5,9 / 6,1,2,3 / 2,3,8,11 / 3,1,4,2 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,2,5 / 1,2,3,6,11 / 3,17,1,4 / 2,6,3,9,11 (300 combos x $0.17 = $50.00) -- 17% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Pinito (Race 5, No.1) — $3.52
2 - Asterix (Race 6, No.1)✓ Won — $3.38
3 - War Eternal (Race 7, No.1)✗ — $3.67
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Eagle Farm's got a Soft 6 skin on it, the rail's out and there's a bit of a southerly giving the closers a headache up the straight. This is one of those days where if you're parked in the front half and travelling, you're living like Tony Soprano at a buffet. Deep swoopers can still pinch one if the speed turns feral, but the default play is: get on the map, keep your powder dry, and don't go chasing ghosts out the back unless the race shape screams collapse.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Eagle Farm, 1000-2400m card
Rail: +7m 1000m-W/Post; +6m remainder
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play on-pace friendly)
Weather: Shower or two, 17°C, humidity 80%, wind 14km/h S (watch for a bit of sting in the straight and some late chop)
Early lane guess: Inside-to-on-pace advantage; leaders and handy types should get first crack
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - a few genuine pressure races, but the sprints and midfield setups still lean to horses with tactical speed
Jockeys to follow:
Tim Clark, keeps landing in the right spot and gets Asterix right in the sweet lane
Nash Rawiller, when he's on a live one, the bloke can make the map look simple
Tommy Berry, ice in the veins, and he's got a stack of key rides in the big races
Stables to respect:
T J Gollan (multiple runners), always dangerous at home and has a few live darts all day
C J Waller (multiple runners), the yard knows how to have them cherry ripe for these features
Annabel & Rob Archibald (multiple runners), a stable with a handy grip on the right kind of midweek and black-type runners
Punty's take: This is one of those Eagle Farm days where the first question in every race is "who can hold a position without burning petrol?" The headwind up the straight means the late swoopers need the race run like a Scene from Mad Max, not a polite jog. In the sprints, the horses that can lob handy and kick before the wobble gets them are going to have the best of it. That puts a heap of pressure on the map in Race 1, Race 2, Race 4 and Race 9 where you can have speed on speed and the poor bastard drawn awkwardly can end up doing all the work for nothing.
The big feature races are a bit of a chess match, but the pattern's pretty clear: the ones with a turn of foot and a race map are the ones to trust, not the old loveable stayers stuck three pairs back praying for a miracle. Race 6 looks the cleanest banker leg on the card, Race 7 has the sort of depth where you don't want to get too cute, and Race 8 is a proper filly brawl where barriers, cover and the right ride matter a hell of a lot more than romance. This isn't the sort of meeting where you want to spray and pray like a drunk at a poker machine; you want a spine, then a couple of value nicks around it.
What it means for you: Keep the aggression for the races where the map and the form line up - that's where the money is. The smart play today is to lean into horses that can sit in the first half of the field or at least travel into the race without needing a miracle. Save the deep backmarkers for exotics only if they're guaranteed tempo beneficiaries. If you see one of the heavily backed runners with the right setup, don't be a hero and fight the tape; the market has a habit of sniffing out the right ones in these big feature races. But if a short one is cramped up and the map says "snafu", crack the doors open and look for the value poke instead.