Saturday, 27 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: C2, 1568m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Pierroplane and Affaire Vue should roll forward, with Wind Rush and Canny Defense stalking the speed
Punty read: Pierroplane is the one they'll all have to run down after he nearly pinched it last week, but this isn't a sit-and-suck race where you can just hand the keys to the favourite and hope. Wind Rush is the old reliable, Canny Defense is the each-way type who gets the right trip from barrier 2, and the drift on Vaninetti is a bit of a whiff - market says no thanks, which usually makes me sit up straighter.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)
1. Pierroplane (No.3) — $2.38 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 28.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.86x
Why Went straight to the front last start and almost stole it; same sort of game again and if he gets across without burning petrol, they still need to catch him.
2. Wind Rush (No.2) — $4.35 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 17.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.95x
Why He keeps turning up, keeps hitting the line, and this tempo lets him sit right in the sweet spot rather than being bullied from the gate.
3. Canny Defense (No.1) — $15.25 / $3.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $3.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.10
Prob 5.2% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.99x
Why The rise to the trip was the right move, the inside gate helps him smother in the run, and he's the sort that can nick a place if the leaders overdo it.
Roughie: Empire Grace (No.7) — $12.25 / $3.30 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.37x
Why Needs the whole race to wobble, but from barrier 1 he can lob handy if they crawl and turn it into a chess match.
Race type: Bm78, 1568m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Placo and Snoopy Now should be handy, with Surprise Coming and Farhh Flung close enough to make a mess of it late
Punty read: This one has got the look of a race where half the field thinks it's the boss. Placo is the one the money has leaned into, Surprise Coming is the big mover but the drift says the story isn't perfectly clean, and Snoopy Now gets every chance if he can park up without spending coin. Crimson Vine is the roughie at big odds, but this isn't a race where I want to chase a miracle unless the whole thing collapses like a dodgy deck chair.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. Placo (No.7) — $4.50 / $1.75 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 17.7% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.00x
Why The map is kind, the market has already had a nibble, and he looks the sort who can sit on speed and keep whacking away.
2. Surprise Coming (No.6) — $5.90 / $2.15 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.23x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Snoopy Now (No.2) — $4.95 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.40
Prob 15.6% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why Honest enough, gets his chance to stalk the speed, and on the soft deck he should keep finding when others start doing the breathing exercises.
Roughie: Crimson Vine (No.4) — $26.50 / $5.50 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.61x
Why Wide gate, huge price, but if the leaders cook each other and she gets the right tow into it, she can clatter into the minors.
Race type: Bm78, 1973m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; I Catchem Fox should be prominent, while Stirrup Cup and Aristonous can stalk and make the last move
Punty read: This is the kind of race where the first five hundred metres are practically a hostage situation. I Catchem Fox has the obvious map, Stirrup Cup is the grinder who can pounce if they loaf, and Aristonous has had the market punt and the blinkers again - which tells me the yard isn't mucking around. Eight On The Dot is the sneaky shape horse on paper, but the locked play is about getting the right sit and not giving away too much ground in a race that will probably turn into a slog with a late dash.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. I Catchem Fox (No.1) — $4.25 / $1.37 🏆 7TH
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 18.2% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.91x
Why He led them up and got the job done last time, handles the soft, and this slow setup lets him get to the front without being harassed like a bloke on a first date.
2. Stirrup Cup (No.4) — $4.30 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.92x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Aristonous (No.5) — $7.40 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.12
Prob 16.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.40x
Why Blinkers again, market support, and the drop back to a more suitable trip is exactly the sort of thing that wakes one up like a double espresso.
Roughie: Exalted Fire (No.6) — $10.30 / $2.60 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.26x
Why Cheekers off first time and a bit of a forgiven run last start; if he gets clear air and the race gets ugly, he can boot home into the finish.
Race type: Bm82, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo; Super Alana leads, Sir Now sits close, and the likes of Gin A Tonic and Deepfloat Diva can stalk the speed
Punty read: This is a proper speed-vs-speed knockout. Sir Now is the one with the class and the unbeaten run, but barrier 8 means he can't muck around at all; he needs to be near enough to pounce, not buried in the cheap seats. Gin A Tonic has been smashed in the market then spat back out a bit, which is the sort of board story that makes you squint, while Deepfloat Diva from barrier 2 is the sleeper who can hang on if the front runners go full Benny Hill.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Sir Now (No.1) — $2.04 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 37.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.94x
Why Two straight wins, loves the job, and if he begins cleanly he has the gear to sit handy and mow them down like a bloke on a ride-on.
2. Gin A Tonic (No.3) — $6.80 / $2.10 🏆 7TH
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.19x
Why Big drift is the red flag, but he does have the early dash to land somewhere useful and the soft deck won't hurt if he rediscovers the spark.
3. Deepfloat Diva (No.10) — $6.20 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 1.08x
Why Barrier 2 is her lifeline; if the leaders cut at each other's throats, she can cling on and make them earn every inch.
Roughie: Volcanic Express (No.2) — $11.00 / $2.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.29x
Why Backmarker in a fast 1000m looks awkward, but if they fly and collapse, he is the one swooping late like the sequel nobody saw coming.
Race type: Open Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo on paper, which makes the map and timing crucial; Brevitas, Lalor, Mountjoy and Tweeter should all get their shot if they don't overcook it early
Punty read: This is the race where you either look like a genius or a goose. Brevitas is the value line with the right setup despite the drift, Mountjoy has the fitness and the map to be right there, and Lalor is the class horse but short enough that you don't want to be mortgaging the dog. Tweeter and Adakite are the sort of horses that can make you feel better about yourself at the tote if they get the right run, but this is one of those races where the winner could be the one that simply gets the cleanest crack at the straight.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Brevitas (No.6) — $4.03 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — Cashed, net -$1.30
Prob 24.4% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.25x
Why The drift isn't ideal, but the map suits, the ground won't be an issue, and he gets the kind of run that can turn into a late punch.
2. Mountjoy (No.5) — $4.90 / $1.85 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Lalor (No.1) — $2.71 / $1.30 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.52x
Why Deserves to win one soon, but at that price you want the race to fall in a heap around him before you start throwing the kitchen sink.
Roughie: Tweeter (No.7) — $11.25 / $3.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.84x
Why The map is good, the pace angle is good, and if he gets first crack at the softest part of the race he can absolutely smoke a place at a nice number.
Race type: Open Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo; Undisputable should make the running, with Royal Sway, Davida and Golden Horizon all sitting in the danger zone
Punty read: Royal Sway is the one I want on top because she keeps rolling up and the soft deck suits her style to a tee. Davida is the interesting one from the map and the stable intent, Golden Horizon is the sneaky one with the right setup if you forgive the last run, and Undisputable may lead them a merry dance but isn't the one I want to be backing to carry the whole village. This is a race where the tempo should give the better horses their chance without turning it into a walk.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. Royal Sway (No.2) — $3.33 / $1.45 🏆 6TH
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 26.4% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why Flying, handles the conditions, and from barrier 11 she can sit close enough to get the last say without doing the work early.
2. Davida (No.3) — $6.55 / $2.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.18x
Why A real chance — but at $2.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Golden Horizon (No.4) — $8.45 / $2.60 🏆 9TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 11.5% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.24x
Why The drift is a bit rude, but the soft track and the way the race shapes give him a proper sniff at running on into a place.
Roughie: Oak Park Maddison (No.1) — $13.50 / $3.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.83x
Why Freshened, dropping back, and he can certainly clatter home if they go too hard - but the weight and price say keep your hands in your pockets.
Race type: Bm66, 1250m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Nicish and See Ya Later Baby can roll handy, with Halliwell, Anotherhouse and Murph stalking the speed
Punty read: Nicish is the one the day really leans on here - the weight map and the soft ground say he's set up nicely. Halliwell has copped market love and the wet is his friend, Anotherhouse has enough upside to be dangerous, and this is exactly the sort of race where a tiny wobble from the leaders can blow the whole thing wide open. If you want a betting analogy, this is the scene in The Dark Knight where everyone's holding a detonator and pretending it's under control.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Nicish (No.5) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$44.85
Prob 15.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.07x
Why The wet suits, the map suits, and he gets the sort of run where a hard-hitting horse can keep coming when others start flapping.
2. Halliwell (No.3) — $6.80 / $2.45 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 1.23x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Anotherhouse (No.4) — $7.10 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.35
Prob 11.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why Trialled well, maps to get the right run, and if the pace gets honest he can turn into the race like a bloke sneaking to the front of the queue.
Roughie: Extra Hot (No.12) — $9.90 / $3.30 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.13x
Why He can finish over the top if the race melts, but the main play is to trust the three that have the cleanest path to the line.
Race type: Bm62, 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot tempo; So Polite, Zatanna and Alpha Street look to pressure the front, with Bardigrub and Tobikko trying to strike from the right spot
Punty read: This is a proper knife fight. Bardigrub has been smashed in the market and you can see why - the camp clearly likes the setup and the bubble cheeker first time is a fair clue. But Tobikko is the one with the best balance of class and race shape, and So Polite is the sneaky overs line because that hot tempo can turn the sprint into a late burn-up. If you like chaos with your coffee, this is your race.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Tobikko (No.2) — $2.03 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 19.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.52x
Why Similar run last time, fitter now, and while the map isn't a picnic he still looks the horse with the most natural class in the race.
2. Bardigrub (No.4) — $4.08 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$10.40
Prob 18.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why The market is telling you plenty, the gear tweak is interesting, and if he lands anywhere near the speed he is right there.
3. So Polite (No.9) — $9.80 / $3.00 🏆 7TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 13.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.67x
Why The hot tempo plays right into his hands - if the leaders go full send, he is the one that can arrive late and ruin a few picnic baskets.
Roughie: Madam Jeanette (No.6) — $21.50 / $5.00 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.07x
Why Has some life if the speed completely melts, but the smart money is on the horses with the better map and the better price discipline.
Race type: 64, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Attain, Naralinga, Bold Secret and Falanghina all have a path, but the race is deep and nobody gets a free ride
Punty read: This is the one where the favourite looks a touch skinny and the value sits one layer deeper. I Will Shine has had the wallet work done on him, but the race itself is broad enough to invite a few different winners, which is why I want Bold Secret, Falanghina and Attain as the core. Annihilate is the roughie with the path if you want to swing at a bigger payday, and Torrita and Swycho are the type of runners that make these handicaps feel like a casino with legs.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Bold Secret (No.8) — $6.10 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$3.75
Prob 14.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.14x
Why Maps well enough, has the right sort of profile for a messy handicap, and the race shape gives him every chance to sit midfield and unleash late.
2. Falanghina (No.10) — $7.60 / $2.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.41x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Attain (No.1) — $8.80 / $3.00 🏆 8TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 11.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.33x
Why The drift looks ugly on the page, but the map is still workable and he's been finishing close enough to be a live chance if he gets a clean crack.
Roughie: Annihilate (No.4) — $10.40 / $3.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.22x
Why Proper roughie with excuses, wet-ground comfort, and a map that doesn't force him to do anything too stupid.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 7,6,2,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,10,3,2 / 6,5,1,7 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,3,4 / 5,3,4,12 / 2,4,9,14,11 / 8,10,1,4,15 (300 combos x $0.22 = $65.00) -- 22% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1 / 6 / 2 / 5 / 2 / 8 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Sir Now (Race 4, No.1)✗ — $2.04
2 - Brevitas (Race 5, No.6)✗ — $4.03
3 - Royal Sway (Race 6, No.2)✗ — $3.33
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Morphettville Parks is serving up a Soft 6 with the rail out and a tiny tailwind up the straight, so the horses that can hold a spot and keep rolling are the ones I want in my corner. It's got that proper pub-brawl feel today: a couple of clear standouts, a stack of races where the map matters more than the name on the page, and a few absolute banana peels where the favourite is there to be shot at.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Morphettville Parks, 1000m-1973m card
Rail: +6m 1000m - W/P, +3m Remainder
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play fair to midfielders, with a late lane for closers)
Weather: Morning fog, 9°C, humidity 83%, wind 5km/h ESE (watch for a little late help to the swoopers)
Early lane guess: On-pace is still live, but saving ground and building momentum off the bend looks the sweet spot
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - a few honest moderates, a couple of genuine burn-ups, and enough open races to keep the bagman busy
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Kayla Crowther - keeps landing on live rides like Farhh Flung, Halliwell and a few others that can pop at the right price
Todd Pannell - when he gets one up near the speed, he can make a race look easy; Wind Rush and Lalor are the obvious examples
Teo Nugent - riding plenty of the right horses in the back half, including Aristonous, Falanghina and Attain
Stables to respect:
P Stokes (4 runners) - plenty of live ammo across the card, especially in the sprint races where map and intent matter
D I Dodson (3 runners) - I Catchem Fox, Hidden Bounty and Oie De Toulouse give the yard a real chance to nick one
D T O'Brien (3 runners) - Farhh Flung, Hot Too Go and Wind Rush all look like honest chances with maps to suit
Punty's take: This card has a bit of Mad Max about it - a few banker scenes, then a pile of chaos once the opens start rolling in. The soft deck won't completely bury the backmarkers, especially with that tiny tailwind, but it also won't hand the day to pure sit-and-sprint types. If you can hold a position and keep galloping, you're in the game; if you dwell, get bailed up, or try to come from the car park, you're cooked.
The meeting feels like a split-screen job. Races 4, 6 and 8 are the ones where the map and class edge really speak loud, while Races 2, 7 and 9 are proper knife-fights where the market is trying to sort the puzzle and failing a bit. That's where the value lives - not in trying to be a hero with every roughie under the sun, but in backing the runners that get the right run and the right shape.
What it means for you: Don't go wandering off into the wild with a Big 6 like you're chasing the gold in Lord of the Rings. There are enough open legs on this card to make a grown punter cry into his pie. The better play is to lean on the horses the map genuinely helps, use place or each-way where the race is a mess, and let the favourites earn their keep instead of blindly trusting the board because it's shiny.
The cleanest way to attack it is with a strong spine in the middle of the card and a few tighter plays around the races where the form and map line up. Race 4 and Race 6 look the best anchor points, Race 5 and Race 9 are chaos handicaps where price matters, and Race 8 is the sort of race that can either make your day or kick your teeth out. Keep the roughies for the places, keep the exotics sensible, and don't get seduced by a skinny favourite just because it's wearing the pretty silks.