Friday, 25 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Aurora's Belt leading, Foxy lane pressure, then the field bunches for the sprint home
Punty read: This is a maiden where the leaders might hold on longer than you think, but the clever move is backing the on-pace type that has both the speed and the finish. Stylish Rosie is sitting right where she should, Moonya Lad is the early pressure off the longer draw, and Aurora's Belt is the kind of leader that sets the race up for others, including the right stalkers.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Stylish Rosie (No.8) — $3.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$40.50
Prob 21.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.78x
Why True on-pace profile in a genuine tempo, and she's built for the last 200m. Market support has been spicy.
2. Moonya Lad (No.2) — $3.94 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 53.6% | Value: 0.71x
Why A real chance — but at that price the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Aurora's Belt (No.4) — $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.82x
Why The leader's role is real, gear change adds interest, but value is thin at the current number.
Roughie: Majestic Choice (No.5) — $8.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.64x
Why If the speed burns out, he's the type that can sneak into the trifecta mix without needing to win early.
Race type: Benchmark 50, 1000m
Map & tempo: Speedy Target and co on the burners, sprint pressure, then it turns into who lasts
Punty read: Ten out of ten times on a 1000m sprint, you want a horse that can actually handle the pressure. Willingale can go forward, and he looks like the sort that keeps grinding as the pack gets messy. Speedy Target is the logical danger, but the whole race hinges on pace rhythm, and Willingale's got the right kind of "I'm there" behaviour.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)
1. Willingale (No.9) — $4.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$24.70
Prob 22.4% | Place: 47.6% | Value: 1.07x
Why He sits on pace in the right part of the track and should be there when the sprint decides it.
2. Speedy Target (No.3) — $4.80 / $1.82 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.99x
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Tarong (No.6) — $7.60 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 38.4% | Value: 1.00x
Why Has form, has a place chance, but I'd rather back the ones that can win with the pace.
Roughie: To Love Somebody (No.5) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.5% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.85x
Why If the front collapses, he can slam home for value, but he's not the main identity for me.
Race type: Open Hcp, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace but still on, Admitted and Hartshorn push forward, everyone else scrambles for the gaps
Punty read: This is one of those races where the "best runner" has to also survive the trip. Admitted is the leader type with the cleanest path through traffic. Hartshorn is the obvious danger, Guac On can keep pressure from the right spot, and Yes Dream has excuses written all over him but might just need things to go his way.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Admitted (No.4) — $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 19.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why He's got the class profile and the lead, and in a 1000m Hcp that often does the heavy lifting.
2. Hartshorn (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Guac On (No.8) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why Can place in a split, but for me the win is Admitted's lane today.
Roughie: I Am A Marvel (No.6) — $9.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.51x
Why Back end of the field needs the gaps and the timing, he's more for the exotics prayer than the win punt.
Race type: Benchmark 70, 1750m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Mission House and Amalfi Amore advantaged, Rock The Sunrise on the speed, then a proper staying test
Punty read: This is the "who controls the rhythm" race. Rock The Sunrise should be able to find a position where he can hold his ground without doing too much. Medal is the late charger who benefits when they open the door with a patient run, and Amalfi Amore is the type to keep coming if the speed is steady.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Rock The Sunrise (No.4) — $2.30 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$15.60
Prob 32.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.92x
Why Clear tempo match and a strong finishing profile for 1750m on a track like this. He looks like the race leader with a plan.
2. Medal (No.6) — $5.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.9% | Place: 35.4% | Value: 1.37x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Amalfi Amore (No.2) — $6.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.79x
Why If the race turns into a stamina grind, he can nick a spot, but he's not my main target.
Roughie: Engeline (No.7) — $9.62 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why Needs the right run and the right gaps, more "toy with it" than "trust it".
Race type: Benchmark 50, 1750m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarker setup, then the turn for home is when it gets real
Punty read: In a slow 1750, Vouchers can sit off them and then do the job late. Mayor Of Kingston is the dangerous sort who can keep grinding, Convo is around the mark too, and Airwaves is the one that looks like a value play if the race opens up. This is the sort of race where backing a closer can feel like cheating.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Vouchers (No.4) — $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 23.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.01x
Why Slow tempo plus a closer means he gets to unleash without being bullied early. Market knows too.
2. Mayor Of Kingston (No.5) — $4.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.1% | Place: 52.8% | Value: 0.86x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Convo (No.2) — $3.70 / $1.65 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.87x
Why Price doesn't give me enough edge for a second lane off the same runner pool.
Roughie: Sweetpea Moochi (No.3) — $11.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.64x
Why Back end needs a miracle run, but if it goes wrong for the leaders, she can fill a place.
Race type: Class 4, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Novela on the speed, Ask Me Mate and Stokomo can get involved early, then it turns into a sprint
Punty read: Ask Me Mate is the one I want near the front. This isn't a "hang back and pray" race. Stokomo is a value chance with that on-pace profile, and Novela is the danger because she's likely to park close and fight out the finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Ask Me Mate (No.1) — $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 23.4% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 0.87x
Why Gets the pace-friendly run and the gear tweak helps, if he's not doing too much early he'll hold on.
2. Stokomo (No.5) — $3.95 / $1.52 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.6% | Place: 59.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why A real chance — but at $1.52 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Novela (No.2) — $3.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 0.58x
Why She's in the mix, but I'd rather not split the win confidence too much.
Roughie: Tigon Princess (No.7) — $9.00 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.05x
Why Needs them to go too fast then fade, she's got the burst if the race opens late.
Race type: Restricted 55 Hcp, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Bonnie Bouquet and other on-pace types set it up, closers look for the gaps late
Punty read: Place leverage day. She's A Beauty is the one I'm keying for a top three finish and potentially more, with Bonnie Bouquet and Verbalize right behind that. This race feels like it can be won by a leader, but I'm focusing on the value in the finishing order, She's A Beauty is primed for it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Bonnie Bouquet (No.6) — $4.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 21.5% | Place: 52.2% | Value: 0.99x
Why Maps to be in the right spot early, then keeps fighting through the lane. She's got that "don't run at the wrong time" vibe.
2. She's A Beauty (No.5) — $5.90 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.28x
Why A real chance — but at $2.10 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Verbalize (No.2) — $4.80 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.83x
Why Credible, but value isn't as sweet as the top duo.
Roughie: She's Got Lyrics (No.10) — $15.00 / $3.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.6% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.84x
Why For it to win, she needs a slick run and a field that opens up, but she can absolutely snag a place if the wheels come off.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,6,2 / 2,5,4,3,1 / 5,2,1,7 / 6,5,2,1 (240 combos x $0.21 = $50.00) -- 21% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Rock The Sunrise (Race 4, No.4)✓ Won — $2.30
2 - Vouchers (Race 5, No.4) — $5.00
3 - Ask Me Mate (Race 6, No.1) — $3.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ewan today looks like one of those meetings where the rail is true, the track is honest, and your stopwatch is cheering for speed but your bank account is begging for each way chaos.
This is a Good 3 card where the fast lanes tend to save ground early, then the real business happens late once the field starts to bunch up. With the way these races are set up, I'm expecting a bunch of leaders to either stick around or get swamped by runners sitting in the right spots. If you're overthinking it, you're gonna get done. Like Eddie Murphy in Trading Places, except the only thing flipping is your confidence.
My spine today is simple, win the right races, then don't blow it all in the first straight. Races 4 to 7 are your Quaddie playground, and I'm treating that stretch like a bar fight, who gets punched early changes everything.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ewan, 1000m to 1750m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good 3 (expected to play Running on and holding speed, with late swoopers getting their shot)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 24°C, humidity 46%, wind 20km/h E (watch for a bit of gusty carry, rain risk is small)
Early lane guess: True rail, so keep an eye on any horses that can settle just off the speed without being forced three or four wide
Tempo profile: Mostly genuine pace pockets early, with a couple of races where the leaders get a breather and the finish gets spicy
Jockeys to follow:
Wanderson D'Avila: Gets on to the right horses in the right rhythm, and he rides like the clock owes him money.
Ben Kennedy: When there is a speed map, he's the type to press it properly and not just dab the button.
Mitch Goring: Usually nails the positioning early, then keeps it simple through the lane.
Stables to respect:
Matthew McGuire (3 runners): Has the polish, and when they map well they generally show up when it matters.
A G Malliff (3 runners): Expect them to have their runners in the race, fitness and intent both line up.
S J Royes (2 runners): Often sneaky in these mid grade handicaps, particularly with horses that can sit and pounce.
Punty's take:
Ewan on a Good 3 is the sort of track where you can absolutely get caught if you leave too much to "hope". The speed is there today, and the rail being true just means your best runs usually come from horses that either lead or are tucked in with momentum. In Race 1, I'm all over stylish types who can hit the line clean, because the early pace is genuine but not chaos, meaning there's plenty of room to swoop when they sort out.
Race 2 is a sprint where the whole race can look like a demolition derby, but the map still matters. I'm backing Willingale to do the honest work early and keep finding at the business end. Then Race 3 is the open Hcp flavour where you want a horse that can handle a bit of traffic, and Admitted looks like the right kind of "runs well despite the drama" profile.
Race 4 through Race 7 is where your Quaddie gets either fun or expensive. Rock The Sunrise is the clear tempo map for Race 4, and Medal looks like the one charging late. Race 5 is Vouchers town, Race 6 is Ask Me Mate trying to lead, and Race 7 is a place-leverage one where She's A Beauty can turn into a pickpocket at the right time.
What it means for you:
Bet like you've got a plan, not like you're randomly throwing darts at the board and hoping one lands on a dartboard. This card gives you a few obvious anchors, especially the top horses in Races 4, 6, and 5, then it asks you to be smart with the rest.
So, be aggressive where the leaders and stalkers match the run style, especially around the Quaddie legs. For the roughies, only go in if you can see the path to the front, otherwise you're just paying for heartbreak. If you're playing lanes, keep it tight in Race 4 and widen where the field gets open late, Race 5 and Race 7 are where the chaos gremlins like to jump out.