Friday, 25 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: C1, 1420m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, on-pacers can hold position, but Soft 5 makes the last 200m a test
Punty read:
This one is a speed vs grind affair. Wolf Junior (No.2) is the "travels and hits the line" profile, but I'm not loving how much everyone's screaming him into a short price. Fuel On The Fire (No.1) is the kind of horse that can be a real nuisance if he gets an uncontested rhythm, and with a Soft 5, those steady sectionals become harder for midfielders to match. Fierce 'n Fabulous (No.3) brings gear sharpening too, and at this trip on Soft she's the one who can pop into the top three and hold it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Wolf Junior (No.2) — $2.10 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 30.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.75x
Why He's drawn handy and runs his race from midfield, then grabs the line when others start to lose grip.
2. Fuel On The Fire (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.72 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 1.16x
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Fierce 'n Fabulous (No.3) — $9.20 / $2.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.55x
Why Gear goes on, and when the track's soft the punch at the line matters. She's got the pop to run through tired legs.
Roughie: Knights Reign (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 43.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why If the tempo holds and the inside luck goes his way, he can sneaky-hit the finish as the race opens up.
Race type: Maiden, 1220m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, the leaders should get every chance to keep stacking ground
Punty read:
It's a maiden plate, so anything can happen, but Red Winter (No.2) looks like the one with the "I'm going to be there when it counts" tempo. Toorak Lad (No.4) is the value play type because his form says he can place and keep improving, while Ezydoit (No.11) is the danger because that kind of consistent early run often sneaks into the finish when the others blow up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Toorak Lad (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$17.88
Prob 27.7% | Place: 62.7% | Value: 1.18x
Why He's well within the pace map and Soft 5 suits horses that can keep working to the line.
2. Ezydoit (No.11) — $3.20 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.0% | Place: 63.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Red Winter (No.2) — $2.80 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.0% | Place: 54.3% | Value: 0.69x
Why He's the speed, but at this price I'm treating him like a place-protect job, not the main payday.
Roughie: Precious Illusion (No.12) — $11.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.41x
Why If the leaders soften too early, she's the sort that can hit the lane late and pinch a place.
Race type: Maiden, 1420m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, more tactical, late fitness matters more than early speed
Punty read:
This is the "who turns it on when the tempo lifts" maiden. Symphony Queen (No.8) has the profile to be special, even if it's slow, because she's got the classier engine to respond when the pinch comes. Unfiltered (No.7) can easily stalk the right part of the race and jump into the mix if those in front stop taking the blame. Jock Rock (No.9) is the outsider with the better late legs and the right barrier, he can be sneaky if they bunch up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Symphony Queen (No.8) — $2.80 / $1.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 35.8% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why Soft 5 suits her style, and slow tempo races reward horses with quick acceleration when it's go-time.
2. Unfiltered (No.7) — $3.60 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.2% | Place: 57.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why A real chance — but at $1.55 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Jock Rock (No.9) — $4.80 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 46.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why He's got pace and the finishing style. If there's a midrace shuffle, he can slot into a gap.
Roughie: So Vogue (No.3) — $10.50 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.18x
Why If they're still together at the turn, she can run onto the end and steal a place cheque.
Race type: Bm60, 1420m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders should get every crack, but Soft 5 makes them work for it
Punty read:
Who's In Dev (No.3) looks like the class and speed combo here, but Snowdonia (No.7) is the one I'm watching for value in a race like this. Geegee Strawberry (No.6) has a genuine shot too, especially if she can find a nice position and not get stuck in the kickback. Kireina Marubrah (No.4) is capable, but the market usually has a reason when they're not going shortest.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Who's In Dev (No.3) — $2.15 / $1.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 32.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why Pace advantage and that on-pacer tactical profile. If he gets into stride, he's hard to run down.
2. Snowdonia (No.7) — $5.50 / $1.82 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.9% | Place: 48.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Geegee Strawberry (No.6) — $8.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.17x
Why She's got the class to press if the track is still holding and the pace isn't suicidal.
Roughie: Thisismyturf (No.8) — $13.00 / $2.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.94x
Why If they scramble in the run, she can sneak into a gap late and run into a minor.
Race type: C3, 1620m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, outsiders can swoop if the speed moderates too much
Punty read:
Outsidethesquare (No.7) is the "if it's there, I'm taking it" type, on-pace and threatening in these conditions. Henley Extreme (No.2) is the danger with that on-speed pressure, Regal Hunter (No.4) is the consistent grinder, and Sir Jag (No.1) is the one that can hang around if the run turns into a tempo test.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Outsidethesquare (No.7) — $3.20 / $1.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 36.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why He's got that on-pace profile and a race shape that should let him keep finding runs right to the line.
2. Henley Extreme (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.6% | Place: 59.2% | Value: 0.96x
Why A real chance — but at $1.55 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Regal Hunter (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.88x
Why Strong minor chance if the race tightens, he's a "place the money and breathe" type.
Roughie: Sky Eagle (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.21x
Why If the leaders soften early, he's got the finish to pick up the last payday.
Race type: C1, 1120m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, this is speed pressure from the first heartbeat
Punty read:
1120m and Soft 5 is ruthless, if you're not placed early you're basically doing extra laps in sand. The big three here are Just Plain Nuts (No.1), Miss Lyra (No.7), and Geegees Mercedes (No.6). Miss Lyra is right in the pocket for the speed, Geegees Mercedes has the most value profile, and Just Plain Nuts should be in the thick of it with a run-on finish if he holds his ground.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Just Plain Nuts (No.1) — $2.98 / $1.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$29.70
Prob 22.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x
Why He's wired to do the one job you need at 1120m, be in it early, then keep battling through the soft ground.
2. Miss Lyra (No.7) — $3.67 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.2% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 0.95x
Why A real chance — but at $1.55 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Geegees Mercedes (No.6) — $5.90 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.42x
Why The Soft 5 grind suits and she's capable of running right through the leaders' stamina.
Roughie: Out Of The Sphere (No.3) — $11.25 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.5% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.76x
Why If the front end goes sour and he still has a gear, he can sneak a place.
Race type: Bm76, 1120m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, short course, decisions made fast
Punty read:
This is a proper sprint grind where who gets to the right patch of ground first, wins the story. Zany Girl (No.7) is the speed, Glory Mission (No.9) is the danger because he's been hitting form through heavier runs, and Hartman (No.1) is the value horse in a benchmark that looks like it might suit his class.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Zany Girl (No.7) — $2.61 / $1.15 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 28.5% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why She's got the speed and the draw makes it easier to control, if she drops out, you've got to question the race map.
2. Glory Mission (No.9) — $3.23 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.4% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.95x
Why A real chance — but at $1.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Hartman (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 45.2% | Value: 1.18x
Why Big value profile with a pace-pressing style, and Soft 5 rewards those who can keep working late.
Roughie: Flying Billie (No.8) — $14.25 / $3.20 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.46x
Why If she's right from a chance last run, she can pick up the pieces late.
Race type: C3, 1220m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, but tempo should still punish wide off early
Punty read:
Ozonica (No.1) is the obvious leader and I love the gate for Soft 5 at 1220m. Benefitsofmine (No.2) is the main threat with midfield placement and the way he's built for these conditions. Fighting For Gold (No.6) is a logical inclusion if the race turns into a "lane where you can breathe" scenario, while Wild Dancer is your big swing roughie if the market's underestimating how much a blinkers change can sharpen a horse.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Ozonica (No.1) — $2.27 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 36.4% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 1.00x
Why She's built for this, draw is perfect for controlling, and Soft 5 loves runners who can keep rolling through.
2. Benefitsofmine (No.2) — $3.80 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.21x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Fighting For Gold (No.6) — $6.85 / $2.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why If the leaders are still there at the turn, he can stick his head out and take the fight.
Roughie: Wild Dancer (No.3) — $19.25 / $4.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 10.3% | Value: 0.84x
Why Blinkers first time angle, if she improves and the leaders flatten, she can surprise for a place.
Race type: Bm68, 2150m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, long stretch run, positioning is everything
Punty read:
2150m on Soft is all about conserving energy and then finding clear ground when it matters. Johnnie Pinch (No.3) is the one with the cleanest path to the front of the finish, Merlin Beach (No.2) is the grinder who keeps giving, and Native Clan (No.5) is the one who can win if the others are stuck in traffic. Alpine Trout is your last at the table roughie, but he's got a smaller chance and needs everything to go his way.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.22 pool)
1. Johnnie Pinch (No.3) — $3.50 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet $11.22 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.22
Prob 27.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why He's got the right tempo handling for a long race, and the gear change helps him keep his mind on the job late.
2. Merlin Beach (No.2) — $3.08 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.95x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Native Clan (No.5) — $4.90 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.0% | Place: 33.6% | Value: 1.12x
Why If there's even a touch of pace, he can roll into the open and run them down late.
Roughie: Alpine Trout (No.6) — $16.75 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.3% | Place: 14.4% | Value: 0.87x
Why He needs luck in the running, but with Soft 5 and a long straight feel, the place could be there if traffic clears.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,4,2,12 / 8,7,9,3 / 3,7,1,6 / 7,2,4,1 (256 combos x $0.08 = $20.00) -- 8% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 7,6,1,3 / 7,9,1,8 / 1,2,6 / 3,2,5 (144 combos x $0.25 = $35.84) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,7,1,6 / 7,2,4,1 / 7,6,1,3,9 / 7,9,1,8 / 1,2,6 / 3,2,5 (2880 combos x $0.001736 = $5.00) -- 0.17% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Symphony Queen (Race 3, No.8) — $2.56
2 - Outsidethesquare (Race 5, No.7)✗ — $2.56
3 - Ozonica (Race 8, No.1)✗ — $2.27
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Launceston on a Soft 5 is proper "legs in the mud, heart in the mouth" stuff, and with 11 scratchies hanging around the place like a bad smell, the whole card feels swingy. I'm chasing the races where the speed holds, then having a crack where the market gets cute and forgets what Soft 5 does to late runners.
If you're chasing a spine today, it's a simple one, my favourite trio of "get me home" horses. Big price? Sure. But I want the ones that can do the job through the middle of the track, when the footing eats momentum. From there, it's race-by-race vibes, top three discipline, and one roughie per race to keep you honest.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 5, 1200-2150m card
Rail: +8m Entire 1200-WP, +7m Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play speed with a running-on bias)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 21C, watch for a little humidity and the "might rain" gremlin (0-1mm possible)
Early lane guess: Wider is better, because Soft 5 punishes being trapped, and that rail out 7-8m helps you avoid the worst of the kickback
Tempo profile: Moderate to Hot early across the middle distances, with Soft 5 turning it into a grind late
Jockeys to follow:
Luke P Dempsey: Maps well on pace types and he keeps finding the front end when the race gets messy.
Sam Kennedy: He's steady over these conditions, and when the leaders look like they might go around, he puts the pressure on.
Craig Newitt: When his horses sit closer than expected, they usually get the last crack at the line.
Stables to respect:
J K Blacker (9 runners): Loads of runners, loads of chances, and he loves tinkering with gear to sharpen them.
Barry Campbell (3 runners): Hard to ignore when the speed suits, plus they're often in the right spot at the right time.
S Gandy (2 runners): Usually has them finishing the job, especially when the track is stingy.
Punty's take:
Launceston Soft 5 on the day is the classic "pace is king until it isn't" scenario. The rail's out, but the ground's still soft, so you can get stuck behind tiring ones if the race shape doesn't give you room. That's why I'm backing runners who can either hold a position on the speed, or swoop with momentum without needing a miracle clearance.
Big picture, the card's got a couple of obvious front-running lanes, especially around the 1000-1400 range where tempo locks in positions early. But the value is lurking in the races where the market is backing the headline favourite while the real danger is the horse getting a nicer run, or getting first crack at the turn. That's where my roughies live, in the places where the map and the gear changes line up.
And yeah, with 11 scratchies, expect a couple of races to go "weirdly fair" and a couple to go "absolutely deranged". The trick is picking which races are honest speed tests, and which are messy chaos marathons. We do that with pace reads, not vibes.
What it means for you:
Your betting game plan today: be a bit more aggressive in the races where the pace map matches the horse, because Soft 5 punishes late hops and quick sand. When a runner's on the on-pacing jobs or sits just off them, you're buying a trip into the race, not just a lottery ticket.
Where I'll protect yourself is in the races that look like they'll collapse into a sprint lane chaos. That's where you lean into Place, or you keep Win bets tighter and use the roughies as "if the speed fries" type plays. Today is about avoiding the dumb money situations where everyone's following the same story and nobody's reading the track.
Now, alright, let's get into it.