Friday, 25 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 900m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Spice Trail likely to go up early and Mainstay not far away in the decision tree
Punty read: This is a sprint where your biggest danger is letting the leaders run themselves into confidence. Spice Trail's the obvious leader shape, but the way this race stacks, Mainstay (No.1) is the one that looks ready to crack it on raw ability. The under market rockets are drifting hard, which is often what you get when punters want a story from the outsiders, but the rail-speed bias plus the confidence around No.1 says 'pay the taxi fare and get there directly.'
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Mainstay (No.1) — $1.82 / $1.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.30
Prob 59.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why It's primed to be in the race early, and the market support is basically saying 'we're not here for moral victories.'
2. Spice Trail (No.8) — $3.80 / $1.12 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why A real chance — but at $1.12 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Our Astute Lass (No.7) — $16.00 / $2.35 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.1% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.42x
Why A real chance — but at $2.35 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Boa Vista (No.3) — $13.00 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.4% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.64x
Why He needs the right trouble and a clean run through, otherwise this is a first-four-and-inconvenience kind of day.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so stalking and timing are everything, A Little Bit Dusty can sit close and pounce
Punty read: Slow 1400s are a minefield for wide swings and premature sprints. That's why No.9 A Little Bit Dusty is the pick, because his profile screams 'right spot, right moment.' Lope De Luna's the other one to respect because the draw gives him every chance to be within striking distance without having to reinvent the wheel.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. A Little Bit Dusty (No.9) — $1.62 / $1.07 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 52.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Slow tempo helps horses that can hold their position, and he's got the class-poise combo.
2. Lope De Luna (No.4) — $2.16 / $1.02 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.18x
Why A real chance — but at $1.02 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Akuma (No.1) — $12.00 / $2.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.71x
Why A real chance — but at $2.10 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Irish Accolade (No.3) — $26.00 / $3.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.5% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 0.78x
Why This needs everything to go right, including the gaps arriving at the right nanosecond.
Race type: CLASS 2, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so you're hunting the one who can still accelerate when others are just getting going
Punty read: This one's basically a patience test. Think Back (No.4) is the sort of galloper who can sit in the right lane and then make the turn into a decision point. Nielsen Park is the likely "I'm always there" type, and Supreme Statement is the sort of roughie that can absolutely hit a long-odds placing if the race opens up. Still, for win, No.4 has the cleaner story.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Think Back (No.4) — $2.55 / $1.14 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 33.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why He's got the right kind of profile for a slow 1600, and the gear change adds sharpness.
2. Magic Merlin (No.1) — $2.65 / $1.14 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.5% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.98x
Why A real chance — but at $1.14 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Nielsen Park (No.3) — $3.50 / $1.32 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why A real chance — but at $1.32 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Supreme Statement (No.5) — $12.00 / $2.60 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.80x
Why If the pace falls apart, this is the sort that can flash late, but it's not guaranteed to get the slot.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow pace but short trip, so barriers and forward positioning matter more than your daydreaming
Punty read: Summer Force (No.7) looks like the one that gets the race instead of reacting to it. Force March (No.1) is right there in the pecking order, but No.7's speed profile and place safety makes him the more honest bet for the win. The rest are the 'if everything lines up' characters, including Expido who has his work cut out in a slowly-run C1.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.54 pool)
1. Summer Force (No.7) — $3.00 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet $11.54 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.54
Prob 33.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.19x
Why The pace setup suits him, and the market is treating him like a serious contender, not just a flyer.
2. Force March (No.1) — $3.30 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.12x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Expido (No.2) — $3.30 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 38.3% | Value: 0.78x
Why Short field, two places, thin divvies — the pool stays on the two bets that earn it. He's on the watch list.
Roughie: The Warrior (No.4) — $11.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.87x
Why He's the type that can fill, but the win path is narrower than the price suggests.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so if you're stuck midfield you've basically bought a front-row ticket to a headache
Punty read: This is about positional speed and race shape, not vibes. Shuda Known (No.5) is the win pick because he has the ability to get involved quickly and then keep running through the line. Girl About Town is the value-shaped rival who can place, and Rising Fortune is a live roughie type if he finds the right pocket. But the win call is No.5.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Shuda Known (No.5) — $2.55 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$23.25
Prob 28.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.32x
Why He's the sweet spot for speed and place safety, and the market support backs his chance.
2. Girl About Town (No.12) — $3.80 / $1.62 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.8% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.91x
Why A real chance — but at $1.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Rising Fortune (No.7) — $4.00 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.38x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Cool Art (No.11) — $17.00 / $4.00 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.82x
Why Needs a clear lane and a bit of luck, otherwise he's battling late.
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 900m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, which usually means the on-pacers get to write their own story
Punty read: This is the race where you back the horse that can handle the sprint pressure. Big Lon (No.8) is the bet because he's got the kind of profile that thrives when the pace is genuine. Bonoyster is more for the places unless you see him stealing the race, and La Pelago is the roughie energy, but Big Lon is the one that looks hardest to get past.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Big Lon (No.8) — $3.70 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 24.9% | Place: 53.3% | Value: 1.44x
Why Sprinting with pace on helps him, and the value is there without needing heroics.
2. Bonoyster (No.6) — $2.35 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.67x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Peregrina Pearl (No.11) — $7.60 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.12x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
Roughie: La Pelago (No.13) — $13.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 28.7% | Value: 1.30x
Why Needs the right run and the right timing, but if the race breaks early, she can run on.
Race type: BENCHMARK 74, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so positioning and keeping momentum matter more than sprint speed
Punty read: Lady Olenna (No.9) is the kind of horse that just keeps showing up when others are cooked by the run. She's a safer bet in a Bm where you want a horse that can still find when the gap appears. Nova Centauri is interesting underneath but the win-value isn't there today, and Zumbo is a classic "could be there" runner, not a lock. Lady Olenna is the lane.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Lady Olenna (No.9) — $3.80 / $1.70 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 23.3% | Place: 61.9% | Value: 1.13x
Why She's reliable in the tempo, and the race shape lets her use her run without needing miracles.
2. Nova Centauri (No.10) — $3.30 / $1.57 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.60x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Zumbo (No.7) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.03x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
Roughie: Navy Steel (No.1) — $10.50 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.01x
Why Real talent, but he's fighting the race story as much as the field.
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, and the run off the turn matters, Panta Rhei should get a chance to control timing
Punty read: Panta Rhei (No.3) looks like the right horse at the right time in a Bm where everyone's trying to time it perfectly. City Gold Speed is the value place candidate, and Orsum is a grinder underneath. But if you want the bet that fits the speed map and the profile, Panta Rhei is the one you back, then you watch him do the quiet work before the line.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Panta Rhei (No.3) — $4.00 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$31.50
Prob 26.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why He's got the pacing to be in play late, and his place confidence means you're not staring at the wall after 100m.
2. City Gold Speed (No.9) — $5.70 / $2.10 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 1.28x
Why A real chance — but at $2.10 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Orsum (No.5) — $5.20 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
Roughie: Fast Blue (No.10) — $10.50 / $3.20 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 34.8% | Value: 1.09x
Why Needs the late gaps, and if the run doesn't arrive, he's just doing overtime without scoring.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,8,3 / 9,4,1 / 4,5,1,3 / 7,4,1 (108 combos x $0.32 = $35.00) -- 32% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,11,12 / 8,13,4 / 9,1,3 / 3,10,11 (81 combos x $0.25 = $20.48) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,5,1,3 / 7,4,1 / 5,11,12,7 / 8,13,6,11 / 9,1,7,10 / 3,10,9,5 (3072 combos x $0.001628 = $5.00) -- 0.16% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Mainstay (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $1.33
2 - A Little Bit Dusty (Race 2, No.9)✗ — $1.82
3 - Think Back (Race 3, No.4)✗ — $2.50
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Scone's a Good 4, rail's True, and the track's basically whispering 'speed wins, mates, don't overthink it.' We've got a tidy Big 3 spine, then a whole lot of places where the value can bite back if you get cute. Let's put the helmet on and go, because at Scone, one sloppy turn and your money ends up doing laps without you.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Good 4, 900m-1600m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play like a fair speed track, rail assists those who can ride)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 21°C, gusty at times (watch for up-front pressure, no excuse for horses getting lost early)
Early lane guess: Tight to the speed early, then you want cover if you're not gifted gate speed
Tempo profile: Generally quick in the sprints (900m), slower when they spread into the 1200-1600s, but still, you can't be asleep at the wheel
Jockeys to follow:
William Stanley: reads speed like a book, and he's on a leader in Race 1
Jess Taylor: keeps finding the right spots, and she's got a live one in Race 4
Reece Jones: solid hands with runners that can stalk rather than just hope
Stables to respect:
K A Lees (3 runners): tends to have them switched on for the day's conditions, especially when the pace maps clean
Carlos Antonio (2 runners): keeps showing up in these middle-distance and Bm races, not just in the gimmies
M A Milton (1 runner): when they start drifting late, you usually find a reason in the run, not the noise
Punty's take:
This meeting is built for momentum. If you're not near the front in the early races, you're basically betting on a horse doing a magic trick with no props. Race 1's the classic maiden sprint setup where the leaders can get away with things, and No.1 Mainstay looks like it's come to do a job. Then Race 2 and Race 3 set up as the 'right horse, right lane' part of the program, where the better tempo and cleaner map get you home.
But don't fall asleep on the value bit. There are roughies sitting there like the mate at the pub who says 'nah mate, trust me' and occasionally turns out to be correct. When the market moves are harsh and the runner still fits the race shape, that's when we start sharpening the pencil. Think of it like choosing the right character in a movie. Everyone else plays their role, but one bloke comes in late and steals the whole scene.
What it means for you:
Your aggressive spots are the ones where the pace and the barrier line up with the way these horses win. That's why the Big 3 is a proper spine and not just vibes. Back the lead maps, protect against being too wide in running, and keep your roughie bets for the races where the top end is short and the underneath can actually sneak into the story.
For the sequences, we're going lanes not lottery tickets. Early Quaddie is the "keep it tight and you might get paid" option. Quaddie and Big 6 are chaos levels that can absolutely happen, but they need respect, not hope. If you're playing, play with your eyes open. And when we say 'No Bet' in the previews, it's not "maybe later." It's "nah, the price or the place safety just isn't doing enough."