TOP PICKS ON THE MOVE — the picks on this card have shifted 3 times today on scratchings and market moves. Punty's staying nimble; treat this card with care.
Friday, 25 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden; 1526m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarkers disadvantaged, on-pacers get first crack at the line
Punty read: This race is basically a traffic jam at 900m. When it's slow like this, the horses that can keep some momentum without getting trapped have the best chance to carve out a fair ending. Sarmat looks like the kind that can sit in the right pocket and then stroll through the gap when others are still negotiating the mud math.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Sarmat (No.2) — $2.30 / $1.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 42.9% | Place: 60.5% | Value: 1.21x
Why Right where the slow race wants him, strong place profile, and he's one of the few that looks like he can actually run the distance properly.
2. Airhawk (No.1) — $5.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.37x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. So Sain (No.6) — $4.60 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 0.55x
Why Not value enough to back, but the excuses stacked up and soft handling means he can still run into the money.
Roughie: Togarashi (No.4) — $9.60 / $3.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.88x
Why Roughie-type angle if the pace stays slow and the right gaps open, but you don't overpay for hope at $10 unless it looks live early.
Race type: Bm66, 2110m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, classic distance, backmarkers have a job cut out
Punty read: 2110m at Lismore is where you find out if horses can handle the grind, not just the sprint. Tewkesbury is the map cleaner, Caracoron is the classy one trying to slot in, and Our Sparky is the type that can sneak into the finish if everyone else fights traffic. This looks like a race where being too far back costs you, unless the race gets stretched enough to give late movers a lane.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.98 pool)
1. Tewkesbury (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $11.98 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.98
Prob 29.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.98x
Why He's the best balance of position and staying power for a slow-run 2110m, and the run style suits the soft.
2. Caracoron (No.1) — $4.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.94x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Our Sparky (No.6) — $4.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.99x
Why Place odds are tasty in a typical soft grind, but the race probably needs the leaders to keep honest.
Roughie: Smelter (No.10) — $13.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.91x
Why Real value on win if he finds room and lifts, but he's not the safest way to start your quinella dreams.
Race type: Bm58, 1310m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pacers have a good run to the line
Punty read: This is a short track race where the leaders can set the terms and not get bullied out of their own race. Spicy Wings is the on-pacer that looks built for a clean run through the turn, and Doingiteasy profiles like a big place threat if the field strings out. The danger is horses that go wide or get held up, because 1310m at Soft 5 is not forgiving. One wrong move and you're watching the finish from the wrong postcode.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)
1. Spicy Wings (No.2) — $3.70 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 19.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why Pace advantage and he's got the "I can put my head down" profile. If he misses a gear, it's still a win threat.
2. Doingiteasy (No.5) — $6.00 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.34x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Barello (No.1) — $4.90 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.98x
Why He's live for the trifecta party, but the win value is a bit meh compared to Spicy Wings.
Roughie: Vetoed (No.8) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.76x
Why A roughie that can still pinch a place if the pace scenario breaks right, but you're not paying extra for "maybe".
Race type: C3, 1410m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, mid-pack chances, place betting matters
Punty read: 1410m in soft is often where horses that can sit midfield without losing momentum are the ones cashing late. Jade Trees maps as the most reliable runner with the best place credentials. Warrior Bae has the value hit in the same bracket, and Transgress is the live danger if the race stays truthful and he gets the right run into the turn.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Jade Trees (No.2) — $3.10 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 28.3% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 1.19x
Why Place upside looks massive, and the way this handicap shapes, she's the one most likely to get first run at the finish.
2. Warrior Bae (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.31x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Transgress (No.4) — $3.10 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.3% | Place: 57.7% | Value: 0.72x
Why Price might be tempting, but the value route on win isn't there for this one today.
Roughie: Jukebox In Siberia (No.6) — $10.00 / $2.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.01x
Why He can still grab a place if the race compresses, but he's more "exotic spice" than the main meal.
Race type: Maiden, 1210m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, on-pacers can hold ground if they ping the turn
Punty read: Short course, Soft 5, slow tempo. That combo can turn 1210m into a sprint that starts too early. Coastal Boom and Yotei are the ones that look made for the "settle, then quicken" style, and Yotei in particular has the profile to run on without needing a miracle. Aurora Blaze is more of a later-surprise type than a main bet.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Coastal Boom (No.8) — $3.90 / $1.55 🏆 9TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 29.4% | Place: 63.4% | Value: 1.23x
Why He has the pace to control the race without getting bullied by the soft track, and the place profile is unreal.
2. Yotei (No.11) — $3.30 / $1.57 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.2% | Place: 61.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why A real chance — but at $1.57 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Aurora Blaze (No.12) — $7.00 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.57x
Why She's probably good enough for a place, but she's not value enough on win in a tight field.
Roughie: D'vincee (No.5) — $10.00 / $2.75 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.26x
Why If he finds the right split early, the price could look silly late, but today he's the "if" not the "when".
Race type: C1, 1210m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, on-pacers and proper runners get rewarded
Punty read: This is the race where the tempo does the heavy lifting. When it's genuine, you don't want to be chasing from the back like you're running late for work. Profiteur's Fil profiles as the one to keep rolling, Il Fratello is the danger with class and speed, and Bellarata is the value side you want for place and exotics. Soft 5 just makes "staying balanced" even more important.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Profiteur's Fil (No.5) — $1.90 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 33.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.83x
Why Short for a reason, and in a genuine pace scenario, he's the type that usually makes it simple by the line.
2. Il Fratello (No.2) — $4.50 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.19x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Bellarata (No.6) — $6.00 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.25x
Why Value is there, especially for the place route, but win coverage stays with Profiteur's Fil.
Roughie: Summer Stunner (No.8) — $18.00 / $3.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.3% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.76x
Why Roughie only, needs everything to go right and still probably needs a photo finish break.
Race type: Open, 1526m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders get a chance but class and position still matter
Punty read: This is Cup day energy without the fancy, and open races on soft usually mean you get a heap of "almost" before the real one sticks. Carravilla is the value-pocket runner with the best blend of place and win profile here, while Fukubana is the other that can be there when everyone else is doing the "I should have started earlier" dance. Mickey's Medal is the third angle for your trifecta maths if the race becomes a three-horse contest late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Carravilla (No.8) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$46.88
Prob 21.4% | Place: 61.6% | Value: 1.51x
Why Strong place leverage, and in a genuine pace race she's the one that can keep momentum through the middle without dropping off a cliff.
2. Fukubana (No.2) — $3.05 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.1% | Place: 62.5% | Value: 0.79x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Mickey's Medal (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.05 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why Could easily fill a spot if the pace isn't too brutal, but the betting priority stays with Carravilla.
Roughie: Aratiri (No.10) — $26.00 / $4.50 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.1% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.97x
Why Big outside threat if the race stays honest and he gets clear running late, but it's a stretch.
Race type: Open, 1210m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, front and on-pacers have the steering wheel
Punty read: Sprint races on Soft 5 are about who can translate speed into traction and not lose it in the final 200. Cindersea is the big one to beat with the strongest on-pace presence and the place safety net built in. Dance Gavin Dance is your chaos option underneath if the lead group gets tangled, and Lady Wardell is the late runner that can still grind into the money.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Cindersea (No.7) — $2.30 / $1.32 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 35.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why He's the one that can keep rolling straight and still hit the line first, and the track profile suits.
2. Dance Gavin Dance (No.12) — $5.00 / $1.82 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.10x
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Lady Wardell (No.10) — $9.80 / $2.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 29.2% | Value: 1.03x
Why Value enough to be a danger, but not enough to bump Cindersea off the top spot.
Roughie: Swifties (No.14) — $10.00 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why A roughie that can still pick up a place if the tempo stays genuine and the late runs are messy.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,1,6 / 2,1,6 / 1,5,2,8 / 2,4,5,6 (144 combos x $0.24 = $35.00) -- 24% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 8,11,12,5 / 5,2,6 / 2,8,3 / 7,12,6,14,10 (180 combos x $0.19 = $35.00) -- 19% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,5,2 / 2,4,5,6 / 8,11,12,5 / 5,2,6,4 / 2,8,3,6 / 7,12,6,14,10 (3840 combos x $0.001302 = $5.00) -- 0.13% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Sarmat (Race 1, No.2)✗ — $2.16
2 - Profiteur's Fil (Race 6, No.5)✗ — $2.00
3 - Cindersea (Race 8, No.7)✗ — $2.24
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Lismore is rolling up a Soft 5, rail is doing the usual little tango (+2.5m 950m-300m then +1.5m 300m-W/Post), and this card looks like it'll reward the ones that can actually handle the kickback without burning their tyres. No rain, so we're not in "absolute mudder" chaos, but it's still wet enough for mistakes to be punished and for tempo to matter like a sitcom plot twist.
Today's spine is simple: back the short-priced blokes where they're meant to be, then let the wet-track larrikin energy do its thing in the value races. We've got a three-winner multi leaning like a cheap bar stool, and a heap of place-friendly plays where the gaps might be tighter than a nightclub queue. If you're chasing one big win, don't overthink it. If you're chasing a day that doesn't ruin your head, you play the lanes and you protect your place.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 5, 1210m-1526m card
Rail: +2.5m 950m-300m; +1.5m 300m-W/Post; True Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play "forward and not panicked" )
Weather: Partly cloudy, 21°C, humidity 65%, wind 9km/h ENE (watch for gusty handling and holding ground, no rain help)
Early lane guess: Slightly inside-advantaged earlier lanes, then outer relief late with runners who can keep a straight line when the track gets grabby
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate, with a couple of races where the pace looks genuine and on-pacers can cash in
Jockeys to follow:
Siabh Rigley: stacks on speed and gets them into striking positions early. If the map says "go", she's usually the one.
Daniel Moor: steady hands for this venue. He tends to keep a horse balanced through the soft stuff and then lets them finish.
Archie Mc Colm: when the money's there, he's usually got them positioned to do the damage instead of just hoping.
Stables to respect:
Stephen & Jordan Lee (2 runners): shows up in maidens and open stuff with horses that get the job done when the tempo suits.
Peter Graham (1 runner): tends to place runners well into races like this, and the way the market moves around his options matters.
M J Dunn (2 runners): has multiple operators on the card and they're not just turning up, they're usually ready to run.
Punty's take:
This meeting is built for "racing brains", not hope. Soft 5 at Lismore means horses that can maintain momentum through the middle stages have a huge edge, and the ones stuck too far back often need a miracle. You'll notice the favourites in the shorter races are mostly on-pacers or controlled front-to-midfield types, because in the wet, getting blocked is basically like stepping on a LEGO brick.
Races 1 and 2 set the tone: you've got short-priced sticks with clear map alignment, and the market is backing the right horses hard. Then Race 3 and Race 4 open the door for chaos punting, where place bets and smart sequencing are how you stop the day going sideways.
From Race 5 on, it's a mixed bag of maidens, handicaps, and a couple of "don't fall asleep" sprint races. The value plays are there, but they're value because they're slightly off the conventional narrative, not because they're random. Like picking the right Marvel villain, you want the one with the best motive, not just the biggest costume.
What it means for you:
If you want a betting game plan, here it is: be aggressive with the Big 3 spine, especially where the horses are matched to the tempo and the track won't do anything weird. In races with slow maps, you don't get extra points for being brave, you get extra points for having the right horse positioned early enough to actually hit the line.
Then you place your "insurance" where the odds say gaps might be thin, because Soft 5 at this track often gives you photo finish energy and tight margins. That's why you'll see plenty of place leverage today, especially in the middle of the card where the value roughies can still pinch thirds without needing to win first.